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All posts tagged contract

UNSIGNED EAGLES ARE A PROBLEM

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/07/12
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Draft, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Offense, Players, Rants, Roster, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

TRAINING Camps are rumored to be targeting a July 28th start date. With today being July 12th, that’s a mere 16 days from now. Two weeks and two days, or “Two and two.”

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In the meantime, eight of our ten 2020 Draft picks, are still unsigned. To be clear, they will not be able to participate in TC without a contract. Not being able to do so, would slow their learning curve, and limit how early they can become serious contributors. Who do we have yet to sign? Take a look:

1st – No. 21 – WR Jalen Reagor

2nd – No. 53 – QB Jalen Hurts

3rd – No. 103 – LB Davion Taylor

4th – No. 127 – S K’Von Wallace

4th – No. 145 – OT Jack Driscoll

5th – No. 168 – WR John Hightower

6th – No. 196 – LB Shaun Bradley

7th – No. 233 – LB/DE Casey Toohill

Reagor not being signed (at this point), is extremely troubling. WR Alshon Jeffery isn’t expected back anytime soon from his 2019 foot injury. On the other hand, WR DeSean Farrakhan is being made to jump through hoops just to remain an Eagle.

In the event that the Eagles release Djax, the Offense will be right back where it was when the 2019 season ended. By that I mean, leaning on WR Greg Ward, and hoping that WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside can somehow put together the concepts of “get open” and “catch ball”.

Whiteside drops an easy score.

Remember this drop? If he catches this, he scores and we win. We lost 24 – 27. Good times.

The LB position remains an open wound. It would be asking a lot for 3rd round rookie LB Davion Taylor to be the upgrade that we need. However, we’re so thin on talent there, that we basically have to ask for exactly that.

All indications are that the Eagles have big plans for FS K’Von Wallace, but every day that he misses of TC, will be like a week’s worth of make-up time. Rookies who fall behind mentally, become liabilities that opponents will exploit during the season.

Not to downplay the importance of the remaining five Draft picks on the above list, but 1) None of them are signed either, and 2) The three guys that I pointed out, are the guys that the team needs big contributions from in 2020. (If there’s even a season.)

Rookie wages are subject to a wage scale, where every player earns less than the guy drafted ahead of him. So there are already valuation charts that approximate what every rookie should eventually sign for.

paid peanuts

Usually the Eagles have the rookies signed by late April, mid May, but many sportswriters want to speculate that the delay is because of the 2020 Coronavirus pandemic. However, given that Philadelphia moved into the Yellow Phase of the re-opening on June 5th, there is no reason why these deals shouldn’t have been/ couldn’t have been, negotiated in principle over Zoom, and then road tripped to finalize and sign.

Right now, we’re thin at LB and we aren’t signing rookies or veterans. Right now, we’re shaky at Opening Day WR, but instead of signing a top threat, we’re hinting at cutting one of the NFL’s top deep threats. Right now, we have more questions than answers at S, but we aren’t signing or trading for any.

Until we address those things, we can’t even seriously entertain the idea of adding an insurance RB, or getting some help at LT, or spending big coin on an over-hyped DE, who has just 32 sacks in 6 years. GM Howie Roseman, you gotta get it together.

HEY COWBOYS FANS…

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/03
Posted in: Conversations, Fans, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Roster. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Draft heads 2017

REMEMBER June of 2019, when I wrote that QB Carson Wentz’s new contract wrecked the future for the Dallas Cowboys? If you don’t here’s the link. In it I explained why the Eagles signing their QB, meant a long-term downturn for the Cowboys. Things I said in that article, were confirmed in an article I wrote that following July. Here’s that link.

Understand, I live in Philadelphia. Never been to Dallas. Never even flexed shoe leather in the state of Texas. I have no internal sources on the Cowboys team. But Skip, this was a prophecy that called ahead, and told everyone to save the date!

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As of now, 6:30a.m. Sunday May 3rd, 2020, QB Dakota Prescott has yet to sign his 33M$ franchise tag, because he’s been saying all along that he wants 40M$ per year. In response, the Cowboys ran out and signed recently released Bengals QB Andy Dalton, to a 1 year, 7M$ deal. While Dalton is a bargain at that price, and an upgrade over back-up QB and preseason Hall of Famer Cooper Rush, make no mistake, this was meant as a shot across Prescott’s bow.

Meanwhile, Cowboys fans are lapping this up like kitties to cream. That’s because they aren’t seeing the bigger picture. They frequently take their eye off the ball, lose their place, and then wonder how they keep ending up in that same spot. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones distracts them with something shiny, and (yet again), everyone forgets that there was a plan.

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Funny thing is, it’s very likely to (yet again) blow up in Jones’s face. Last year during RB Ezekiel Elliott’s hold-out, Jones taunted Elliott when he praised RB Tony Pollard with the quote “Zeke who?” after Pollard had a decent showing (5 carries 42 yards) in a preseason game. Elliott continued his holdout, and when Jones caved, Elliott was given a 90M$ contract.

Having seen that playbook, Prescott has to know that he should sit until Jerry Jones caves. Either that or not sign, sit out the year, and show up in 2021 wearing a Redskins, Bears, Colts, Buccaneers, or Titans jersey. Meanwhile, the Cowboys would have to start their search for a franchise QB all over again.

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Speaking of playbooks! The Cowboys have changed their head coach, but they’re running the same offense as before, with last year’s coordinator. If Prescott signs quickly, that offense can hit the ground running. If Dalton starts, then he has to learn the system from the ground up. The Cowboys are in “win now” mode, but starting Dalton would derail all of that, right from the start.

No OTA’s, and no mini-camp, with a shortened training camp this year. Not a good look for a team with a new head coach. Especially in a division that features a division champ that won while they were wounded, but now is healed up, and has added weapons.

2019 opponent-rival mock

The Eagles are not in “win now” mode. The Eagles are in predator mode. They don’t have to worry about a learning curve, and a short camp works in favor of a roster that has seen too many recent injuries. While the short camp situation works against other teams, it actually works for the Eagles. So it’s not minus one Cowboys, zero Eagles. It’s minus one Cowboys, plus one Eagles. Just on preparedness alone.

For the Cowboys to have a chance, Jerry needs Prescott to start. Otherwise, 2020 is another 8 – 8 record, and possibly third place finish, instead of a fight for #1.

8-8

#2 PAY THE MAN!

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/02/11
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Players, Rants, Roster, The 12. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

THE 12 2020.2

RENEGOTIATING SS Malcolm Jenkins is a bigger priority than picking up LB Nigel Bradham’s option. I put Bradham first, because picking up an option is a decision. Both players are still under contract, but Jenkins is a negotiation. I wanted to lead with something the Front Office could 100% do, and do quickly, if they wish.

I have no idea how much money Jenkins wants. What I do know, is that we don’t have anyone else like him on the field, in the locker room, or in the community. Jenkins not coming back in 2020, would rip the beating heart out of this team.

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More than what he means to the psyche of this team, is his actual on-field value. While once upon a time he was a CB/S tweener, he’s no longer very good against deep passes. It’s why so much of the scheme is designed to not (ahem) expose him, to certain situations. (We love you Malcolm, but it’s the world’s worst kept secret, that you can be had deep.)

On the other hand, underneath, intermediate, and in the box, he’s AMAZING. And even better than his play, he sees things early, and often helps teammates erase mental mistakes before the ball is even snapped. There is no stat for that. If you think this Defense can be a sieve with him out there, taking him away would be like cutting the bottom out of a bucket.

Oh yeah, and just who is his successor….

I hear crickets. Do you hear crickets? Because I hear crickets.

A couple of years ago it seemed like Tre Sullivan would be that guy, but NOPE! The Eagles never bothered to get a guy to stand behind Jenkins and learn So now if Jenkins walk, our defense is…

Soap drop

Seriously, behind Jenkins we have (drum roll)…Rudy Ford and Marcus Epps. Pardon if I can’t find my whelm. It’s under something. Between them there are 5 NFL seasons, 48 career games, 1 start, 20 total tackles, and not a single pass break-up. Ever. Not one. Between two players.

So Malcolm has the Eagles by the balls on this one. It’s just a matter of how soon the Front Office realizes that, and acts accordingly. Or they could do what they did with Brian Dawkins. Remember that one? That worked out splendidly for us, didn’t it?

Pay the man!

2019 Malcolm Jenkins pre-game

#1: PICK UP BRADHAM’S OPTION

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/02/10
Posted in: Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Players, Roster, The 12. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

THE 12 2020.1

LINEBACKER has long been a sore spot for this team. Our 20 year history of identifying and developing talent at this position “hasn’t been great” to put it kindly. It’s specifically for that reason that we need to pick up the option on LB Nigel Bradham’s contract.

2019 nigel bradham

How much are we talking? In 2019 Bradham had a cap hit figure of 4.4M. In 2020 that would jump to 9.7M. That’s an additional 5.3M, or a raise of 120%. And yes, it sounds steep when you say it that way.

However, given the current LB market, our projected cap space (42M according to Spotrac), and that his cap hit freezes at 9.7 for two years, it means if he’s basically affordable until his deal expires in 2023.

Has Bradham been amazing? No, he hasn’t, but he has been pretty good, he’s been consistent, he does call our defensive plays, and he’s still the best LB we have. Replacing him through free agency would likely cost more, with no guarantee that they’d be as good as what we already have.

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OLB Nate Gerry is more like a S/LB tweener, both in build and play style. All indications are that OLB/DE Genard Avery will be used more like a stand-up DE, and less like a real OLB. So Counting Bradham, we have effectively 1.5 LB’s, and then a bunch of kick coverage guys.

The position undoubtedly needs a rebuild, and the Eagles will undoubtedly draft a LB, be it inside or outside. (Hopefully inside.) For now, Bradham and Gerry give us a decent base to build on. So why not start there, instead of scrapping everything, and hoping things work out for the best?

Re-sign Bradham, and build around him as a point of stability. This one is easy. Let’s hope the Front Office gets it right.

MORONIC EAGLES FANS

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/01/22
Posted in: Conversations, Fans, Offense, Players, Rants, stats. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Alshon City2

“TRADE, extend or restructure”. This was the subject of a Facebook post that I weighed in on Monday morning, regarding WR Alshon Jeffery. While all of those options are the wrong one, some are more wrong than others. What really bothered me though, were the moronic reasons behind some people’s answers. Before we go any further, let’s take a quick look at Jeffery’s current deal, according to Spotrac.

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We have Jeffery for 2 more years, at a fully guaranteed 26.75M  . That’s a 9.9M base in 2020, and a 12.7M base in 2021. Cutting him in 2020 leaves us with a dead cap figure of 26.1M. Cutting him in 2021 leaves us eating 10.6M. So anyone who mentions cutting him…just tune that idiot out. Don’t even argue.

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I won’t keep you in suspense. The actual thing we should do with Jeffery, is draft his replacement, and spend two years grooming the guy. Let Jeffery play out the last two years of his current deal, and then let him walk. Cleanly, as a free agent. Acknowledge the past, solidify the present, secure the future.

One more time: The Eagles already have Jeffery under contract. Even with him at 9.9M, we still have 42M in salary cap space. We can already afford him. Easily. There is no need to do something stupid. But let’s look at those other options, anyway.

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TRADE: Trading a player doesn’t necessarily remove them entirely from a teams books. The team we trade Jeffery to, would pay his base salary. However, the remaining 10.5M in bonus money (2.5M signing, 3.45M option, 500K roster, 4.1M restructure) would stay on the Eagles books for two years. That’s 5.25M per year that the Eagles would lift for some other team. All so that instead of building on a foundation, we can re-create a hole that we already suffered through in 2019. Like idiots.

2019 Alshon Jeffery scores

EXTEND: Why? Understand, Jeffery has good speed, runs decent routes, and has good hands. On 50/50 balls he’s more of an 85/15 guy. He’s at the low end of the top-tier WR’s. However, all indications are that he’s slowing down physically, with maybe two years left before his skills drop him from being an 85/15 guy to an actual 50/50 guy. He has never been a crisp route runner, and isn’t a blazing fast guy either. So what would we be paying for beyond two years? Play him. Pay him. Shake his hand. Part ways amicably.

Vikings Eagles Football

RESTRUCTURE: What? WHY? All a restructure does is take the current contract and stretch out the money over a longer period of time. In exchange for re-doing a contract, a team usually guarantees the years of the new deal. So we’d basically stretch 26.75M over three or more years, (instead of just these two), likely keeping Jeffery past his useful years, and stealing a spot from some other player. Or we could cut Jeffery, eat the remaining dead money, and get zero bang for those bucks. Stupid right?

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This is why I say, just let him play his deal out. For what the Eagles are paying, he’s not overly expensive, and will likely be well worth the money (or close to it), for the remainder of the deal.

Many of the people who want him removed, like to bring up those unverified rumors that he’s the guy who criticized QB Carson Wentz. Fans were saying that Jeffery is a “cancer”, isn’t “bought-in”, and was trying to “sabotage” Wentz this year.

2019 Alshon Jeffery scores miami

All of those statements are nonsense. The locker room didn’t come apart, and Jeffery led all Eagles WR’s in catches, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He even produced a 100 yard game while playing hurt. Hard to buy the “cancer and sabotage” nonsense, in light of those FACTS.

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As far as the unsubstantiated rumors… Hey, in my gut I believe it was Jeffery who said those things. I do. But even so, since when is a guy not allowed to speak his mind? I’m a native Philadelphian who was born at Episcopal hospital, in 19125 where I still live. I went to high school (Parkway Center City), six blocks from Independence Hall. I was a Communications major with a minor in Philadelphia History. I’m all about free speech, so I won’t knock Jeffery for using it. I just wish he stood behind it.

While we’re on the subject of him talking, lets take a look at the substance of what [he] said. Here’s a direct quote: ‘We need to make shit simpler. Sometimes we just need to handle what is manageable. Even Peyton Manning knew when to check it down.’

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Quick question. Didn’t Wentz start doing exactly these things after the Miami game? He threw a lot more checkdowns (Perkins/Sanders/Goedert), RB Screens (Scott), and he stopped holding the ball so long. The routes were simplified for incoming players. The result was a 4 – 0 record, 7 TD’s, no INT’s, only 7 sacks surrendered, and a 67.6 completion percentage. Prior to those four games, Wentz had a completion percentage of 62.4% on the season.

The evidence strongly suggests that we may have benefited from Wentz taking that advice sooner. (Still wouldn’t have changed the outcome of the playoff game though.)

While the Eagles may move on from Jeffery, let’s be clear about something. Every indicator says that it would be a stupid thing to do while we can afford him, while we don’t have better than him, and while he clearly knows what he’s talking about.

APTOPIX Vikings Eagles Football

WHAT NOW, COWBOYS?

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/09/04
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

elliott eat.jpg

BACK in July I told everyone that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott had all the leverage, during his holdout. The Cowboys talked tough, and said they would not re-set the RB market. The owner Jerry Jones joked “Zeke who?” They brought in a former back-up, and tried to talk up a rookie change of pace back.

They barked, postured and ultimately caved entirely, to Elliott’s demand to be the highest paid RB in the game’s history. They gave him a 6 year, 90 million dollar extension, with a whopping 50 million of it guaranteed. In the process, they totally re-set the RB market.

But Elliott is beside the point. He was always going to get everything he wanted. I made that point over a month ago, with people telling me I was wrong.

(sigh)

i'm right

Again, Elliott is beside the point. The real question is what about QB Dak Prescott? Remember his demand for 40 million per year? The QB sits at the head of the table right? If the Cowboys caved to one of Prescott’s supporting cast, surely they have to be about to cave into him as well, right?

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If Prescott doesn’t get an offer that he likes this season, he can fly the coop and test free agency in March. That would leave them with no QB and limited options. The Cowboys could franchise tag him, but if he doesn’t sign it, they are again without a QB.

Jerry Jones is in a position where he either has to grossly overpay Prescott, or tell him to his face that he’s not worth the money. Either way, Prescott’s contract talks will do visible harm to the team, starting in March of 2020.

So the question is: What now?

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POOR EZEKIEL ELLIOTT

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/22
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

ezekewok

ALL jokes aside, I feel bad for RB Ezekiel Elliott, and RB Melvin Gordon. And for that matter pretty much any football player who holds out seeking more money. I say football player, because holdout situations are more common in pro football. By far.

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It’s an indication of a broken system. More on that in just a moment.

Whenever an athlete holds out, the fans almost always side against the guy that they spent years rooting for. Elliott is no different here. People who bought his jersey are now calling him “a diva” and “a baby”. They want him to “just go back and play” on his current contract. Which is hilarious. It will never happen. That’s why Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, quickly made him an offer.

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Why do fans want him to go back? Because they feel like their team needs him. Not his back-ups. Not a rookie. Not an aging free agent, who was sitting on his couch, hoping for his phone to ring. Cowboys fans want Elliott. They feel they need him. So if he’s so valuable, why are the fans against him being paid like he’s so valuable? Why not pay “the best” RB, like the best RB? This question vexes me.

You know what? Why not just forget about him, and focus on winning the division with who’s on the roster? LOL. We all know the reason for that. The mediocre QB who wants more money than he’s worth, will be even less than mediocre without his best crutch.

Without signing Elliott, the Cowboys don’t stand a chance of winning the division. Last year they swept an injury decimated Eagles team (9 – 7), and still only finished one game ahead (10 – 6), despite being a mostly healthy team. Without Elliott, the Cowboys go from predator to…

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As for the broken system. The primary reason that players hold out, is because they want deals that generally will challenge or exceed the salary cap. So as a matter of sound accounting practice, the first ask practically has to elicit a “No” response from organization. This is S.O.P. Then both sides get into negotiations as to how to make the player’s deal cap friendly.

But hold on! Who decides on what the salary cap is? You? Me? Congress? The ghost of Steve Jobs? No. It’s the owners. This is a self-imposed problem. It’s an artificial cap, imposed by the owners themselves, so later they can say to players “I can’t do nothin’ for you, man”.

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For instance, without the salary cap, how easy would it be for the Cowboys (worth 5 billion, remember), to pay Elliott even as much as 14M per year? Doing the math, without the cap, that 14M is .0028% of the team’s total value. Putting that in working class terms (aka you and me money): That’s like you have $1,000 in your pocket, and someone you claim to value highly, asks you for $2.80. 

However, with a salary cap, a billionaire can point to the guy who he profits off of, and say,professor hinkle.jpeg

“Look at him! Isn’t he greedy? He wants more than we have to give! He’s stealing from his teammates.” Mind you, those teammates are also laboring under the manufactured problem, known as the cap.

It’s the old Abbott and Costello ‘Two Tens for a Five’ routine. (It’s just 1:18. Totally worth your time. This smile is on me.)

They get you with the fast talk about Cabo, or an off-hand joke. Meanwhile just beyond your focus, is the blurry world of what’s really going on, i.e. this broken system. A system that’s deliberately being kept in a broken state. I mean, don’t you find it weird that the owners are never responsible for any of the mess that they legislate?

Fuck it. Let’s just keep blaming the players, right?

EAGLES WIN WAR WITH COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/14
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

THE Cowboys swept the Eagles in 2018. That was a classic case of winning a battle, but losing a war. Make no mistake, from a long-term perspective, the Cowboys have already lost this war, because the Eagles have effectively shut any Super Bowl window that the Cowboys may have had.

2019-Nailed it Carsons deal

When I said that, I was under the impression that the financial issues that Dallas is enduring now, wouldn’t hit until March of 2020. I figured QB Dak Prescott would play out his rookie deal quietly. I figured WR Amari Cooper would play out his deal quietly. I figured RB Ezekiel Elliott would play out his deal as well, mostly quietly.

I saw this financial bind coming, I just didn’t think their players would trigger it. There was no way to see this coming. Had you told me in June, that Dallas would be going through this in 2019, I’d have dismissed it as a delusional fantasy, from a rival fan. I’d have said “You’re playing at FARCE! There’s no way the Cowboys players would derail their own team in that fashion!”

Yet here we are. So then, why do I credit the Eagles with what is happening in Dallas. How does QB Carson Wentz signing his contract, derail an entire franchise 1,500 miles away? How can the two things be connected? Surely I’m grasping at straws, right?

I’m going to keep this VERY simple. I’m going to draw three Simple Lines of Reasoning, and make it so that anybody who’s literate will understand it. There is no rocket science here. There is no “fuzzy math”. There is no smoke, nor mirrors. Here we go.

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(FACT) Wentz signs his deal in Philly for 32M$ per year on his extension.

(SLR) Dak Prescott in Dallas realizes that he hasn’t missed any games, he has won two division titles, he has played in actual playoff games, and head to head he “owns” Wentz. Prescott thinks he deserves more money.

(FACT) At the end of 2019 the Cowboys have to re-sign both Prescott, and Amari Cooper. If Prescott and the Cowboys don’t reach a deal during the season, Prescott will be Franchise tagged at about 33.9M$ per year. Cooper will command between 18 and 20M$ per year, and is a MUST HAVE, to legitimize Prescott’s tagged cap figure. On the low side, that comes in at 51.9M for those two players in 2020.

(SLR) Ezekiel Elliott has two years remaining on his rookie deal, but realizes that all of his potential extension money is going out the door NOW. Especially if he gets hurt, or has already been hurt, and is hiding it from the team to keep his value from depreciating. Powerbacks don’t have long NFL careers. If he or his doctor already sees a coming issue, he HAS TO hold out now. Once Prescott and Cooper have their checks in hand, there’ll be no more room at the feeding trough in two years.

(FACT) The Cowboys could’ve locked Prescott up for about 27M$ per year last year, but they didn’t. Prescott being paid less than QB’s Russell Wilson (35M per year, 1SB win, 2 appearances), Ben Rothlisberger (34M, 2SB wins), and Aaron Rodgers (33.5M, 1 SB win), was one thing. However, when Wentz with ZERO playoff wins, signed for 32M, it changed the valuation metrics.

(SLR) Prescott could sign with the Cowboys for a one year extension, and then once the new CBA is done, (with a much higher cap figure), then giving him a deal of 35M to 42M would be an easy lift. However, salary figures are ego driven. It’s not just about how many dollars a contract is worth, it’s also about what percentage of the cap can you get a team to commit to just you as a player. Making 34M of a 188M cap (18.0%), is less valuable than making 45M of a 260M cap (17.3%). There’s a difference of 9M in dollars, but it’s not about the dollars. Prescott can make up that 9M on an endorsement deal for Ford pick-up trucks, or Charles Schwab investments or whatever. It’s about being able to say “I mattered this much.” “I was this important to them.” “Once upon a time, I was the top. I was the pinnacle.” The QB that had to wait four rounds to hear his name, wants to say that he made it. In that regard he HAS TO beat Wentz’s deal. It otherwise invalidates beating his stats.

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People keep missing the forest for the trees. We live in age of loud voices, too much make-up, and movement for the sake of movement. What are you saying? Who are you underneath all that? Where are you really trying to go? Nuance now seems lost on most people. People disregard the small details, even though they influence everything.

Like the way one small signature in South Philly, tore down an entire franchise in Dallas.

ANOTHER FORMER COWBOY RETURNS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/30
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

2019 ZEKE HOLDOUT

THIS morning around 2:30, while watching “Speak For Yourself” I heard something that irritated me, mostly because it’s flat-out untrue. It was said that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones holds all the leverage in regards to the holdout of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. Given what just happened with former Steeler/current Jet RB LeVeon Bell, this represents old thinking.

The thinking is, because there are two years, not one year, remaining on Elliott’s contract, the Cowboys can sit pat and eventually Elliott will either return on his current deal, or sign the Cowboys “take it or leave it” offer. That thinking is shortsighted and focuses on a commodity based mindset. It does not take into account, the entirety of the picture here.

Look, every sports show that talks about this issue, will tell you about what the player stands to lose here. No one seems to be thinking much about Elliott’s leverage, or what the organization stands to lose. Even more pressing is what Jones stands to lose personally. Oh yes. He has skin in the game. Literally.

jerry and jimmy

Remember when Jones forced out head coach Jimmy Johnson? The reason was largely because Jones felt that he didn’t get enough of the credit for building the Cowboys into a two-time (1992 and 1993) Super Bowl winner. Jones wanted to prove that he could win one without Johnson, and hey, Cowboys won another Super Bowl in 1995 under head coach Barry Switzer. However, everyone with at least two brain cells said “Yeah, but those are all still Jimmy’s players. Barry and Jerry just rode shotgun.”

So from that day to this, Jerry Jones has been on a quest to win one without ‘Jimmy’s players’. The problem is that Jones is 76, and there are fewer days ahead than behind. He is literally running out of time to get what he wants. And therein lies Ezekiel Elliott’s leverage. It’s TIME.

Due to Jones race against the clock, he has the Cowboys built to win now. Their window is now. Elliott’s holdout derails that, because the team goes as he goes. If Elliott no show, he no go. He no go, they no go. That burns a year of Jones’s life, over a sum of money he’d be willing burn to warm his feet. Jones needs Elliott more than the money. The money is a meaningless commodity. What’s precious is his remaining time.

But the game of one-upmanship must be played right?

alfred morris

So the Cowboys went out and signed RB Alfred Morris. Isn’t that just adorbs? They want to show Elliott that “the beat goes on”. They want to show him that they’re keeping it moving, keeping it shaking. Hot damn! You GO, Cowboys!

Except… The Cowboys have already had Morris. He was on the roster in 2016 and 2017. He was a teammate of, and the back-up to Elliott, before being released a year ago. If they really wanted Morris, they could have kept him. They didn’t. Could have had him months ago. They didn’t. So the Cowboys gallivanting around with some guy they settled for, won’t light a fire under Elliott. How could it? Why would it? Even Morris knows he’s just a seat warmer.

When Morris, or their rookie, or whomever else acting as a stand-in for the real thing, when that guy can’t deliver the goods, Jones will know that he’s wasting time. With every loss, that clock will tick louder. Louder and louder. Louder and louder.

There’s only so long left for Jerry to get what he’s spent decades craving, and Elliott is clearly the key to that. Whether Jones even has a chance at it, depends on him not playing the game of one-upmanship.

Then again, the game could go on and keep yielding the same old result:

broken window

SO WHY ISN’T DAK SIGNED?

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/10
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, playoffs, Reviews, Rivals, stats, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Wentz SB ring

EVER since the Eagles locked down QB Carson Wentz, Dallas Cowboys fans have been up in arms for some reason. On social media, their fans have put up a million and one posts, about how QB Dak Prescott is better than Wentz, along with stats to back up their argument.

Let me concede most of the stats right now. I repeat, MOST of them. (More on that, down the page.) But yes, in many statistical categories, Prescott is ahead of Carson. There can be no dispute on that.

However, if Prescott is truly the better QB, then why doesn’t his team believe in him enough to at least copy Wentz’s 4 year 128M$ deal? Why are he and his organization so far apart, that both sides have elected to shelve the matter until training camp? Why wasn’t Prescott signed after the 2018 season, when he would have been cheaper, (as I suggested in March of 2018). 

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Maybe Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is stingy with his money? No. In fact, he’s been repeatedly criticized for paying players too much, too early, or both. So that clearly isn’t a factor.

Maybe Jones doesn’t have any faith in Prescott as a person? No. Jones has also proven generous to a fault when it comes to extending good faith, towards even men of questionable character. For his part, Prescott doesn’t own a black mark against his name. So that’s not it either.

Here’s what it is. Jones has been around enough winners to know one when he has one. If he thought he had one in Prescott, he’d have branded that steer a while ago.

For the answer, you have to look at Prescott’s stats. Not just at the stats, but into what they mean. Sports is funny that way. To many fans, a W is a W. To organizations, some of those W’s carry more weight than others. Here’s what I mean:

Prescott is 13 – 5 vs the division since he was drafted in 2016. Nice stat-line right? Hold up. Read it carefully. Like J.J. is doing.

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Since 2016 the giants have combined record of 19 – 29. They were 11 – 5 in 2016 when they swept the Cowboys, but have been 8 – 24 since, losing all 4 games between the two teams, for an overall record of 2 – 4 over the span. (Dallas margins of victory being 16, 20, 7, and 1. giants margins of victory 1 and 3 points)

Since 2016 the Redskins have combined record of 22 – 25 – 1, and they are 1 – 5 vs Dallas over the three year span. Their best year of the three, was 2016 when they went 8 – 7 – 1. (Dallas victory margins 4, 5, 14, 24 and 8. Washington victory margin 3)

Since 2016 the Eagles have a combined record of 29 – 19, and are 2 – 4 over that span vs Dallas, splitting the first two years, and being swept in 2018. (Dallas margins of victory 6, 6, 7, and 6, and Philadelphia margins of victory being 14 and 26 (Both with Carson at the helm.))

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So Dallas can look impressive vs sub .500 teams, but struggles vs a winning team, never once posting a double digit win? Interesting. Especially considering that one of those 6 point “wins” was a 6 – 0 game vs the deepest part of the Eagles bench, in Week 17 of the 2017 Super Bowl season.

One could hardly fault Jerry Jones for not counting that win in Prescott’s favor. (Prescott played that whole game, going 17 – 30 – 56.6% – 179 – 1 – 0 and passer rating of 85.3. Against second and mostly third stringers.)

Head to head, Wentz is 2 – 3 vs Prescott, not 1 – 3 as you’ll erroneously see reported, as their fans try to discount New Years Day 2018 (the 2017 season). Prescott started and then sat in preparation for the playoffs. The only Dallas game Carson has ever missed was the aforementioned 0 – 6, Week 17 loss. Which he’d have sat out anyway, even if he were healthy.

So as you can see, context is important.

Prescott’s agent is likely filling his head with how great his stats are, and telling him how much money he can get him. Jones on the other hand is realizing that if he pays his QB like Russell Wilson/Aaron Rodgers/Ben Roethlisberger… If he gives him Carson Wentz KING type money… If he pays Prescott, Super Bowl ring type money, then Jones won’t be able to afford a supporting cast to continue to hide a QB who can’t even sniff 25 passing TD’s in a season, playing alongside one of the NFL’s best RB’s.

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Had the Cowboys stood pat and not added WR Amari Cooper last year, they would be fine right now. Prescott would have continued to struggle, which would have capped his stats, probably cost a couple of games, and thus lowered his asking price. Or at least limited his leverage.

That’s what they seemed to be doing in March. I even commended them, and commented on how it was a much smarter gambit than they are known for. But then they Cowboy’d it right up, and now they have to pay an average dude like a superstar outright, or get into a bidding war for him, or start all over without him after this season.

Carson got a new deal because his organization has seen enough to believe in him, despite his injury history. Prescott is still chasing a deal, because his organization has seen him be good, but doesn’t believe that he can truly be special.

Wentz and Prescott

Looking up to Wentz.