EVER since the Eagles locked down QB Carson Wentz, Dallas Cowboys fans have been up in arms for some reason. On social media, their fans have put up a million and one posts, about how QB Dak Prescott is better than Wentz, along with stats to back up their argument.
Let me concede most of the stats right now. I repeat, MOST of them. (More on that, down the page.) But yes, in many statistical categories, Prescott is ahead of Carson. There can be no dispute on that.
However, if Prescott is truly the better QB, then why doesn’t his team believe in him enough to at least copy Wentz’s 4 year 128M$ deal? Why are he and his organization so far apart, that both sides have elected to shelve the matter until training camp? Why wasn’t Prescott signed after the 2018 season, when he would have been cheaper, (as I suggested in March of 2018).
Maybe Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is stingy with his money? No. In fact, he’s been repeatedly criticized for paying players too much, too early, or both. So that clearly isn’t a factor.
Maybe Jones doesn’t have any faith in Prescott as a person? No. Jones has also proven generous to a fault when it comes to extending good faith, towards even men of questionable character. For his part, Prescott doesn’t own a black mark against his name. So that’s not it either.
Here’s what it is. Jones has been around enough winners to know one when he has one. If he thought he had one in Prescott, he’d have branded that steer a while ago.
For the answer, you have to look at Prescott’s stats. Not just at the stats, but into what they mean. Sports is funny that way. To many fans, a W is a W. To organizations, some of those W’s carry more weight than others. Here’s what I mean:
Prescott is 13 – 5 vs the division since he was drafted in 2016. Nice stat-line right? Hold up. Read it carefully. Like J.J. is doing.
Since 2016 the giants have combined record of 19 – 29. They were 11 – 5 in 2016 when they swept the Cowboys, but have been 8 – 24 since, losing all 4 games between the two teams, for an overall record of 2 – 4 over the span. (Dallas margins of victory being 16, 20, 7, and 1. giants margins of victory 1 and 3 points)
Since 2016 the Redskins have combined record of 22 – 25 – 1, and they are 1 – 5 vs Dallas over the three year span. Their best year of the three, was 2016 when they went 8 – 7 – 1. (Dallas victory margins 4, 5, 14, 24 and 8. Washington victory margin 3)
Since 2016 the Eagles have a combined record of 29 – 19, and are 2 – 4 over that span vs Dallas, splitting the first two years, and being swept in 2018. (Dallas margins of victory 6, 6, 7, and 6, and Philadelphia margins of victory being 14 and 26 (Both with Carson at the helm.))
So Dallas can look impressive vs sub .500 teams, but struggles vs a winning team, never once posting a double digit win? Interesting. Especially considering that one of those 6 point “wins” was a 6 – 0 game vs the deepest part of the Eagles bench, in Week 17 of the 2017 Super Bowl season.
One could hardly fault Jerry Jones for not counting that win in Prescott’s favor. (Prescott played that whole game, going 17 – 30 – 56.6% – 179 – 1 – 0 and passer rating of 85.3. Against second and mostly third stringers.)
Head to head, Wentz is 2 – 3 vs Prescott, not 1 – 3 as you’ll erroneously see reported, as their fans try to discount New Years Day 2018 (the 2017 season). Prescott started and then sat in preparation for the playoffs. The only Dallas game Carson has ever missed was the aforementioned 0 – 6, Week 17 loss. Which he’d have sat out anyway, even if he were healthy.
So as you can see, context is important.
Prescott’s agent is likely filling his head with how great his stats are, and telling him how much money he can get him. Jones on the other hand is realizing that if he pays his QB like Russell Wilson/Aaron Rodgers/Ben Roethlisberger… If he gives him Carson Wentz KING type money… If he pays Prescott, Super Bowl ring type money, then Jones won’t be able to afford a supporting cast to continue to hide a QB who can’t even sniff 25 passing TD’s in a season, playing alongside one of the NFL’s best RB’s.
Had the Cowboys stood pat and not added WR Amari Cooper last year, they would be fine right now. Prescott would have continued to struggle, which would have capped his stats, probably cost a couple of games, and thus lowered his asking price. Or at least limited his leverage.
That’s what they seemed to be doing in March. I even commended them, and commented on how it was a much smarter gambit than they are known for. But then they Cowboy’d it right up, and now they have to pay an average dude like a superstar outright, or get into a bidding war for him, or start all over without him after this season.
Carson got a new deal because his organization has seen enough to believe in him, despite his injury history. Prescott is still chasing a deal, because his organization has seen him be good, but doesn’t believe that he can truly be special.