Dallas Cowboys

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WHAT NOW, COWBOYS?

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/09/04
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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BACK in July I told everyone that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott had all the leverage, during his holdout. The Cowboys talked tough, and said they would not re-set the RB market. The owner Jerry Jones joked “Zeke who?” They brought in a former back-up, and tried to talk up a rookie change of pace back.

They barked, postured and ultimately caved entirely, to Elliott’s demand to be the highest paid RB in the game’s history. They gave him a 6 year, 90 million dollar extension, with a whopping 50 million of it guaranteed. In the process, they totally re-set the RB market.

But Elliott is beside the point. He was always going to get everything he wanted. I made that point over a month ago, with people telling me I was wrong.

(sigh)

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Again, Elliott is beside the point. The real question is what about QB Dak Prescott? Remember his demand for 40 million per year? The QB sits at the head of the table right? If the Cowboys caved to one of Prescott’s supporting cast, surely they have to be about to cave into him as well, right?

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If Prescott doesn’t get an offer that he likes this season, he can fly the coop and test free agency in March. That would leave them with no QB and limited options. The Cowboys could franchise tag him, but if he doesn’t sign it, they are again without a QB.

Jerry Jones is in a position where he either has to grossly overpay Prescott, or tell him to his face that he’s not worth the money. Either way, Prescott’s contract talks will do visible harm to the team, starting in March of 2020.

So the question is: What now?

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POOR EZEKIEL ELLIOTT

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/22
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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ALL jokes aside, I feel bad for RB Ezekiel Elliott, and RB Melvin Gordon. And for that matter pretty much any football player who holds out seeking more money. I say football player, because holdout situations are more common in pro football. By far.

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It’s an indication of a broken system. More on that in just a moment.

Whenever an athlete holds out, the fans almost always side against the guy that they spent years rooting for. Elliott is no different here. People who bought his jersey are now calling him “a diva” and “a baby”. They want him to “just go back and play” on his current contract. Which is hilarious. It will never happen. That’s why Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, quickly made him an offer.

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Why do fans want him to go back? Because they feel like their team needs him. Not his back-ups. Not a rookie. Not an aging free agent, who was sitting on his couch, hoping for his phone to ring. Cowboys fans want Elliott. They feel they need him. So if he’s so valuable, why are the fans against him being paid like he’s so valuable? Why not pay “the best” RB, like the best RB? This question vexes me.

You know what? Why not just forget about him, and focus on winning the division with who’s on the roster? LOL. We all know the reason for that. The mediocre QB who wants more money than he’s worth, will be even less than mediocre without his best crutch.

Without signing Elliott, the Cowboys don’t stand a chance of winning the division. Last year they swept an injury decimated Eagles team (9 – 7), and still only finished one game ahead (10 – 6), despite being a mostly healthy team. Without Elliott, the Cowboys go from predator to…

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As for the broken system. The primary reason that players hold out, is because they want deals that generally will challenge or exceed the salary cap. So as a matter of sound accounting practice, the first ask practically has to elicit a “No” response from organization. This is S.O.P. Then both sides get into negotiations as to how to make the player’s deal cap friendly.

But hold on! Who decides on what the salary cap is? You? Me? Congress? The ghost of Steve Jobs? No. It’s the owners. This is a self-imposed problem. It’s an artificial cap, imposed by the owners themselves, so later they can say to players “I can’t do nothin’ for you, man”.

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For instance, without the salary cap, how easy would it be for the Cowboys (worth 5 billion, remember), to pay Elliott even as much as 14M per year? Doing the math, without the cap, that 14M is .0028% of the team’s total value. Putting that in working class terms (aka you and me money): That’s like you have $1,000 in your pocket, and someone you claim to value highly, asks you for $2.80. 

However, with a salary cap, a billionaire can point to the guy who he profits off of, and say,professor hinkle.jpeg

“Look at him! Isn’t he greedy? He wants more than we have to give! He’s stealing from his teammates.” Mind you, those teammates are also laboring under the manufactured problem, known as the cap.

It’s the old Abbott and Costello ‘Two Tens for a Five’ routine. (It’s just 1:18. Totally worth your time. This smile is on me.)

They get you with the fast talk about Cabo, or an off-hand joke. Meanwhile just beyond your focus, is the blurry world of what’s really going on, i.e. this broken system. A system that’s deliberately being kept in a broken state. I mean, don’t you find it weird that the owners are never responsible for any of the mess that they legislate?

Fuck it. Let’s just keep blaming the players, right?

EAGLES WIN WAR WITH COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/14
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

THE Cowboys swept the Eagles in 2018. That was a classic case of winning a battle, but losing a war. Make no mistake, from a long-term perspective, the Cowboys have already lost this war, because the Eagles have effectively shut any Super Bowl window that the Cowboys may have had.

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When I said that, I was under the impression that the financial issues that Dallas is enduring now, wouldn’t hit until March of 2020. I figured QB Dak Prescott would play out his rookie deal quietly. I figured WR Amari Cooper would play out his deal quietly. I figured RB Ezekiel Elliott would play out his deal as well, mostly quietly.

I saw this financial bind coming, I just didn’t think their players would trigger it. There was no way to see this coming. Had you told me in June, that Dallas would be going through this in 2019, I’d have dismissed it as a delusional fantasy, from a rival fan. I’d have said “You’re playing at FARCE! There’s no way the Cowboys players would derail their own team in that fashion!”

Yet here we are. So then, why do I credit the Eagles with what is happening in Dallas. How does QB Carson Wentz signing his contract, derail an entire franchise 1,500 miles away? How can the two things be connected? Surely I’m grasping at straws, right?

I’m going to keep this VERY simple. I’m going to draw three Simple Lines of Reasoning, and make it so that anybody who’s literate will understand it. There is no rocket science here. There is no “fuzzy math”. There is no smoke, nor mirrors. Here we go.

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(FACT) Wentz signs his deal in Philly for 32M$ per year on his extension.

(SLR) Dak Prescott in Dallas realizes that he hasn’t missed any games, he has won two division titles, he has played in actual playoff games, and head to head he “owns” Wentz. Prescott thinks he deserves more money.

(FACT) At the end of 2019 the Cowboys have to re-sign both Prescott, and Amari Cooper. If Prescott and the Cowboys don’t reach a deal during the season, Prescott will be Franchise tagged at about 33.9M$ per year. Cooper will command between 18 and 20M$ per year, and is a MUST HAVE, to legitimize Prescott’s tagged cap figure. On the low side, that comes in at 51.9M for those two players in 2020.

(SLR) Ezekiel Elliott has two years remaining on his rookie deal, but realizes that all of his potential extension money is going out the door NOW. Especially if he gets hurt, or has already been hurt, and is hiding it from the team to keep his value from depreciating. Powerbacks don’t have long NFL careers. If he or his doctor already sees a coming issue, he HAS TO hold out now. Once Prescott and Cooper have their checks in hand, there’ll be no more room at the feeding trough in two years.

(FACT) The Cowboys could’ve locked Prescott up for about 27M$ per year last year, but they didn’t. Prescott being paid less than QB’s Russell Wilson (35M per year, 1SB win, 2 appearances), Ben Rothlisberger (34M, 2SB wins), and Aaron Rodgers (33.5M, 1 SB win), was one thing. However, when Wentz with ZERO playoff wins, signed for 32M, it changed the valuation metrics.

(SLR) Prescott could sign with the Cowboys for a one year extension, and then once the new CBA is done, (with a much higher cap figure), then giving him a deal of 35M to 42M would be an easy lift. However, salary figures are ego driven. It’s not just about how many dollars a contract is worth, it’s also about what percentage of the cap can you get a team to commit to just you as a player. Making 34M of a 188M cap (18.0%), is less valuable than making 45M of a 260M cap (17.3%). There’s a difference of 9M in dollars, but it’s not about the dollars. Prescott can make up that 9M on an endorsement deal for Ford pick-up trucks, or Charles Schwab investments or whatever. It’s about being able to say “I mattered this much.” “I was this important to them.” “Once upon a time, I was the top. I was the pinnacle.” The QB that had to wait four rounds to hear his name, wants to say that he made it. In that regard he HAS TO beat Wentz’s deal. It otherwise invalidates beating his stats.

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People keep missing the forest for the trees. We live in age of loud voices, too much make-up, and movement for the sake of movement. What are you saying? Who are you underneath all that? Where are you really trying to go? Nuance now seems lost on most people. People disregard the small details, even though they influence everything.

Like the way one small signature in South Philly, tore down an entire franchise in Dallas.

ANOTHER FORMER COWBOY RETURNS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/30
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

2019 ZEKE HOLDOUT

THIS morning around 2:30, while watching “Speak For Yourself” I heard something that irritated me, mostly because it’s flat-out untrue. It was said that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones holds all the leverage in regards to the holdout of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. Given what just happened with former Steeler/current Jet RB LeVeon Bell, this represents old thinking.

The thinking is, because there are two years, not one year, remaining on Elliott’s contract, the Cowboys can sit pat and eventually Elliott will either return on his current deal, or sign the Cowboys “take it or leave it” offer. That thinking is shortsighted and focuses on a commodity based mindset. It does not take into account, the entirety of the picture here.

Look, every sports show that talks about this issue, will tell you about what the player stands to lose here. No one seems to be thinking much about Elliott’s leverage, or what the organization stands to lose. Even more pressing is what Jones stands to lose personally. Oh yes. He has skin in the game. Literally.

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Remember when Jones forced out head coach Jimmy Johnson? The reason was largely because Jones felt that he didn’t get enough of the credit for building the Cowboys into a two-time (1992 and 1993) Super Bowl winner. Jones wanted to prove that he could win one without Johnson, and hey, Cowboys won another Super Bowl in 1995 under head coach Barry Switzer. However, everyone with at least two brain cells said “Yeah, but those are all still Jimmy’s players. Barry and Jerry just rode shotgun.”

So from that day to this, Jerry Jones has been on a quest to win one without ‘Jimmy’s players’. The problem is that Jones is 76, and there are fewer days ahead than behind. He is literally running out of time to get what he wants. And therein lies Ezekiel Elliott’s leverage. It’s TIME.

Due to Jones race against the clock, he has the Cowboys built to win now. Their window is now. Elliott’s holdout derails that, because the team goes as he goes. If Elliott no show, he no go. He no go, they no go. That burns a year of Jones’s life, over a sum of money he’d be willing burn to warm his feet. Jones needs Elliott more than the money. The money is a meaningless commodity. What’s precious is his remaining time.

But the game of one-upmanship must be played right?

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So the Cowboys went out and signed RB Alfred Morris. Isn’t that just adorbs? They want to show Elliott that “the beat goes on”. They want to show him that they’re keeping it moving, keeping it shaking. Hot damn! You GO, Cowboys!

Except… The Cowboys have already had Morris. He was on the roster in 2016 and 2017. He was a teammate of, and the back-up to Elliott, before being released a year ago. If they really wanted Morris, they could have kept him. They didn’t. Could have had him months ago. They didn’t. So the Cowboys gallivanting around with some guy they settled for, won’t light a fire under Elliott. How could it? Why would it? Even Morris knows he’s just a seat warmer.

When Morris, or their rookie, or whomever else acting as a stand-in for the real thing, when that guy can’t deliver the goods, Jones will know that he’s wasting time. With every loss, that clock will tick louder. Louder and louder. Louder and louder.

There’s only so long left for Jerry to get what he’s spent decades craving, and Elliott is clearly the key to that. Whether Jones even has a chance at it, depends on him not playing the game of one-upmanship.

Then again, the game could go on and keep yielding the same old result:

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THE RETURN OF 2001

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/24
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC Championship, NFC East, playoffs, Rivals, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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GREATNESS is out there. Can you see it?

Calling me optimistic about the upcoming season, would be to grossly understate the issue. In fact, when the subject of the Eagles comes up, I’m generally overtaken by feelings of extreme calm and pleasantness. Until yesterday, I couldn’t understand why that was. Then the Dallas Cowboys cut a relatively expendable WR, and it became as clear as day to me.

The days of Eagles football circa 2001, are back.

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Think back to 2001. Franchise QB, key players inked to long term deals, no distractions in the locker room, comfortable coaching staff. The result was a four year, 48 – 16 run, that included four straight division wins, four appearances in the NFC Championship game, and one Super Bowl appearance. True, wins are better than appearances, but you have to get there to win OR lose.

It’s true, we were also 11 – 5 in 2000, but that was off of a last place schedule, following a 5 – 11 season. By 2001, each of those seasons was accomplished vs a 1st place schedule. We were legit MONSTERS.

By contrast, back then it seemed, if our division rivals counted their testicles five times, they’d never get the same number twice. They just couldn’t do anything right. Funny thing. If you look around the NFC East right now, you’ll see shades of that going on, all over again.

You have one team that can’t give away talent fast enough. Another team that can’t or won’t make adjustments to it’s approach to pretty much anything regarding offense, defense, or team culture. The third of our rivals, despite being the most valued sports franchise on Earth, doesn’t seem to understand how money works.

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It’s true! Meanwhile, this year’s Eagles roster is consistently regarded as in the top five, in terms of talent. Team culture is as highly regarded around here, as talent. Our financial house is so in order, that we were able to use it as a weapon, which has since, severely handicapped our most competitive rival, in terms of distraction. (Thank God, that Howie Roseman is on OUR side!)

The calm pleasantness that I feel, isn’t because I expect a great 2019. It’s because I’ve seen this before, and I know how this all plays out. We’re not just set up for a great season of Eagles football. We’re set up for a great era of Eagles football.

There will be losses. There will be injuries. There will be controversies. There will be things we cannot see coming. However, there will always be the team, the fans, and the dream. There will always be us.

Greatness is out there. Can you see it?

IT’S ALREADY STARTING

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/23
Posted in: Conversations, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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BACK on June 7th, I said that the Eagles signing of QB Carson Wentz to a 4 year extension, forces the Dallas Cowboys into a phone booth. I figured that those chickens would come home to roost at the end of the 2019-2020 season. However, events have conspired to actually hasten the demise of the Cowboys 2019 season, and likely beyond.

The first event was attempting contract negotiation with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. A smarter team would have let the season start, gauged Prescott’s effectiveness or lack thereof, then made him an offer accordingly. Especially since they seem less than gung-ho, about committing to him long term for some reason. 

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Laugh if you want. She can probably suck the chrome off a trailer hitch.

Instead the Cowboys tried to get ahead of an inflating market, far too late into the process. If they were going to do that, they should have done so before a QB with lesser stats (Wentz), was inked to an offer commensurate with what franchise QB’s are going for today.

The second event was the “leaked” plan of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, to hold out if he doesn’t get a new deal, two years early. The Cowboys win when Elliott plays, and they lose when he doesn’t. If the Cowboys don’t pay him, they’re left with an over-rated, soon to be over-paid QB, throwing to their star (ugh, unintended pun) WR Amari Cooper, who’s on the last year of his deal, having said that he plans to play his contract out.

(FYI: Cooper is waiting to see what kind of money Falcons WR Julio Jones pulls down, to see what the market looks like. There is ZERO guarantee that he stays in Dallas.)

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I won’t even mention all the other expiring contracts the Cowboys have to deal with at season’s end. As it stands, these three are problematic enough on their own, but they’re hitting all at once. And what’s crazy is that NONE of them needs to be!

The reason I say “it’s already starting” is because today the Cowboys cut WR Allen Hurns, after he refused a pay cut. He was scheduled to carry a 2019 cap hit of 6.25M (4M base, 1.25M signing bonus, 1M roster bonus), but cutting him saves the Cowboys his 4M base. This 4M is money that they can now reallocate.

What this is, is a cannibalizing of the roster. I say this, because this is just the first of these moves. Lesser Cowboys are being ground up, to ensure that Jerry Jones team can feed his stars.

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This team’s starting QB, RB, and #1 WR are all playing with contracts on their minds. Either you have to prepare for the reality of losing one very shortly, or you have to realize that the only way to pay those three, is at the expense of their teammates. And don’t even entertain the notion of winning the division with such distraction looming.

Oh yeah. It’s already starting.

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THE NFC EAST QB SITUATION

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/08
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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YOU can’t win without a Quarterback. In the last half century in the NFL, that statement has become axiomatic. Well, it’s been a month since the Eagles made it clear to the world, that warts and all, QB Carson Wentz is the franchise that this franchise is franchised around. (Let the Church say amen… Hallelujah.)

The rest of the NFC East seems well…a bit unsettled at QB. What I mean is, the other two football teams and the Redskins, have yet to declare the guy who they want to build their futures with. At first glance it may not appear so, but if you lean in (and you don’t even have to lean in close), you’ll see what I mean.

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The giants are essentially held hostage by the no-trade clause in QB Eli Manning’s contract, and so will pay his 23M$ salary, to avoid eating 11M$ of dead money and bad karma, from just cutting him.

So their front office is going to let him start, probably (secretly, silently) hoping for him to get injured just enough to start the QB they picked #6 overall, out of Duke. (Yes Duke.) You know who I mean. QB Whatshisname. John Doe? Joe Smith? Tom Blank? Daniel Jones? Whatever. They’re basically waiting for a medical reason to yank Manning. Or to let him stink so badly that he himself will suggest riding pine to avoid further weekly embarrassment.

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The Redskins. Picture a blindfolded child, swinging at the air with a stick, and hoping to make contact with a pinata 10 feet behind them. Right now the ‘skins aren’t looking for candy. Just a thump that says there may be a chance at some candy. They too have a rookie QB in Dwayne Haskins, and he’s looking to make everyone who passed on him “pay”. (Which to me, seems almost like him saying that he’s mad that he isn’t elsewhere.)

The ‘skins may start the rookie. Or they may start QB Case Keenum who they brought in to start, before they decided he wasn’t good enough, and drafted a QB in the first round. However, a report from last month, also says that last year’s back-up, QB Colt McCoy, could end up the starting QB. That’s if he isn’t cut. Wait, what?! How do you go from potential starter to… Never mind. Redskins.

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I understand the youth movements in DC and NY. Those are 100% organic processes. Dallas however, has given me pause. Like trying to line up a shot on a pool table, I’ve been looking at Dallas’s situation from different angles and imagining the follow through. Here’s what I came up with.

Cowboy’s owner Jerry Jones is the groom. He’s locked in the bathroom on the day of his wedding, refusing to come out. It’s time to walk down the aisle and commit to QB Dak Prescott. However, Jones has reservations about the marriage. Prescott is good, but is he ring good? Jones has his doubts.

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That in itself says absolutely everything. Jones has had QB’s Troy Aikman and Tony Romo. He’s also had QB’s Quincy Carter and Steve Walsh. He knows what a franchise QB looks like. However, he also knows what they don’t look like. So this much hesitation on Prescott, is telling.

On the surface, we all know that after spending three years singing Prescott’s praises, Jones now has to sign him. That being said, signing him and keeping him are two very different things. Especially if Dallas has eyes for making a major move in or around the 2020 Draft. It’s the only thing that explains why Prescott has been allowed to remain unsigned as Jones watches his price tag steadily increase.

It’s highly unlikely, but it’s entirely possible that Prescott could play this year out, move on, and the Cowboys would have to start at square one. Calm down. Calm down. I said possible, but highly unlikely. More likely would be a delayed sign and trade scenario.

Picture this: Prescott is signed to a 5 year deal during training camp. During the season, his play still can’t convince Jones that he is a great long term answer. Why hold onto a player like that for 32M$ per year? The answer is, no team would.

Given all the pieces that the Cowboys currently have in place, Jones has to make a move if he thinks he still doesn’t have a franchise QB. He has to. Otherwise he risks missing the team’s window.

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Dallas will sign Prescott. They’ll do so just in case he pans out this year, or to have leverage to get something for him, if their front office decides that they need a new QB. That way they can get a jump on the seller’s market.

But who would want Prescott next year? The short list of places he’d end up are… We’ll save that for another day.