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FOUR THINGS: WK 16: EAGLES – COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2022/12/23
Posted in: breakdown, Coaching, Defense, Four Things, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Rivals, Roster. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

OUR win over the Bears came at a cost, as our QB Jalen, hurts with (what we’re told is) a shoulder sprain. (See wha’ aw deed there? (Yes! And then I wrote with Sharlto Copley’s accent. You’re welcome!) In any case, we toughed our way past injury, brutal cold, and an opponent that I warned last week, that we can’t let hang around.

This week’s opponent doesn’t do so well against the run. Given that running the ball is a strength of ours, it can be the Trojan Horse that we use to sneak in our passing game this week. In that way we’d exploit a glaring Cowboys weakness, while strategically attacking what would normally be a strength that they rely on.

QB Gardner Minshew. Dallas, you have a problem.

A win here makes us 14 – 1, and uncatchable both as the winner of the NFC East, and as the #1 seed in the NFC. A win here also means, the only playoff game we’d play on the road, would be the Super Bowl. A win here would have the NFL looking at Eagles back-up QB Gardner Minshew and thinking, “Oh shit. Not again”

A loss puts us at 13 – 2 , leaving the division winner, and #1 seed in question for at least one more week. Which is why this game will be a NASTY one. Anyone who thinks they want it more than we do, is about to find themselves slumped over a fire hydrant. (Had to go old school, to paint that picture.)

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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics would give our Eagles the best chance to win this game. So here are the Four Things that we need to focus on this week, versus the: Cowboys

WR A.J. Brown for six ahead of olb/DE Micah Parsons

1) Make their OLB’s Cover: It’s a given that OLB Micah Parsons is just a pass rusher. He’s a good one, but he’s exploitable in coverage and against the run. Almost to the point of being a liability. So run at him. Also have TE Dallas Goedert motion to Parson’s outside hip, so that when he pass rushes, he leaves Goedert open at the snap. Easy money until the Cowboys make Parsons cover.

The other OLB Anthony Barr doesn’t see as many snaps due to Nickel and Dime packages, but with his his age (30), weight (250), and injury history to his right leg, he’s no match for either WR Quez Watkins or WR Zach Pascal. Line them up on his outside leg and run him out of the box. Or even better, sub him out for smaller.

2) Punish the Blitz: The Cowboys like to walk S Donovan Wilson up into the ‘A’ and ‘B’ gaps to let him rush the QB practically unblocked. They’ve gotten him 4 sacks and 8 QB hits off of this tactic. Said the Little Tailor “Ahhh, but I know a trick worth two of that!”

With Hurts out of the game, it’s an automatic that hand-offs are back on the menu. So use play-action. No! Better yet, abuse play-action. Get the blitzer to honor the RB, so that Minshew has a second longer to let a receiver come uncovered on a quick route up the seam. Or put RB Miles Sanders in motion for a Quick Screen pass.

3) Take Away the Quick Stuff: Of course CB’s Darius “Big Play” Slay and James Bradberry will play aggressively, but NCB Avonte Maddox needs to delay receivers releases into their patterns. Give no quick timing throws to QB Dak Prescott. We don’t have to shut the receivers down, just throw Prescott off.

Get their routes unfolding at a slower rate, than Prescott’s muscle memory. That doesn’t mean slow the game down for him! The pass rush is still coming at full speed! Due to a rash of interceptions, he’s said last week that he has to do a better job of assessing risk. Get him holding the ball a little longer, and get some sack/fumbles.

Our BACK-UPS at DT: Marvin Williams, Linval Joseph, Ndamukong Suh. This is so damned unfair.

4) Squeeze and Occupy the Gaps: This game will be won or lost at the Line Of Scrimmage. We don’t need to tackle their RB’s for a loss on every play. However, if we get bodies in the gaps and narrow run holes, (that goes for the ‘C’ gaps too!) it gives us time to get population to the football, and slow their run game down.

We don’t need to shut down their run, just make it unreliable. The more bodies we can put in gaps, the cleaner MLB T.J. Edwards stays. So take the run off the table and force Prescott to have to carry his team.

****

If the Eagles do these Four Things, then we’ll be virtually impossible to beat. That being said…

This is going to be a physical game, since both teams need the win. We need it to be able to rest players, and maybe practice new concepts for the playoffs. A win allows us to give some guys a day of two off. Just like Spring baseball.

Goosebumps.

The Cowboys on the other hand, need this game to have a mathematical chance at the East’s 2022 banner. A loss here will lock them in as the 5th seed. Yet they couldn’t afford to rest starters, with Prescott’s interception issue not being resolved. They need more reps to work on what’s wrong with their passing game.

So the Cowboys have to play the next two games hard, and then play Wild Card week. If we start the pounding on Saturday, they should be fall apart tender by the time we see them in four to five weeks. So let’s get to tenderizing!

Oh, and expect a nail-biter.

****

Prediction: EAGLES 21 – Cowboys 20

WARNING: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use Four Things as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.

Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how this game went.

FOUR THINGS: WK 12: EAGLES – SEAHAWKS

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/11/28
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, Offense, Players, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 3 Comments

SILVER lining to last week was, despite how shitty we looked, we still only lost by 5. My point is, that we aren’t “in over our heads” talent-wise. What we are is, in our own way. This week features a shuffling of the Offensive Line, and a head coach who said he was looking at 2017 and 2018 film. This week is the wisest the Eagles have looked from top to bottom, since they figured out several ways to mask Halapoulivaati Vaitai at LT in 2017.

A win puts us back in first place in the NFC East. A loss would have us still within striking distance, but with no shot at any sort of Wild Card seeding.

The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money.

So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on, this week versus Seattle:

Remember WR Travis Fulgham? I hope the Witness Protection Program is treating him well.

1) Attack, attack, attack: I saw our passing attack on a milk carton yesterday. Seattle is giving up 28 points per game, and can’t defend the pass. Win, lose, or tie, the Eagles need a game where we TOTALLY cut loose, and try to work on some things. With all the people calling for QB Carson Wentz’s benching, using this game as a lab is basically playing with house money. What’s to lose? It’s not like most Eagles fans could pretend to be disappointed. Many have already thrown in the towel! We need to be aggressive and either get the knockout, or go down swinging.

2) Run the damned ball: Usually I say “hand it off 20+ times”. We did that last week with 9 carries on the first drive, and just 12 carries for the REMAINDER OF THE GAME! That was 20+. Get it? That was Doug playing with my emotions.

So I’m going to breadcrumb this, this week: “Doug, hand that motherfucker off 12 to 16 times per half. Commit to running the ball to set up play-action. Make life easier for the O-Line and the QB. Save yourself some frustrating questions after the game.”

3) Go For Two: While it’s true that our Offense (cough cough, Carson) is giving the ball away entirely too often (20 in 10 games, Carson has 18 of them), it’s equally true that our Defense doesn’t generate many takeaways (just 11 in 10 games). All three of our wins are in games where we snagged two or more turnovers. All the games with 1 or less, have been losses or a tie. In every game this year where Seattle committed more than 1 turnover, they lost that game. This is an easy one to figure out.

4) Do better with hidden yardage: That means being penalized less for fewer yards. It also means returning more punts than we let roll dead. After allowing a punt to be downed at the 2, (which led to a safety last week), Special Teams Coordinator Dave Fipp needs to be on notice. His unit has gotten beyond sloppy, and worse than that, there doesn’t seem to be anyone willing to make a serious, or sustained effort. He needs to find a return man who wants the job, instead of using WR Greg Ward and RB Boston Scott who are merely going through the motions.

If we do these Four Things, the final score should look a lot like:

EAGLES 32 – Seahawks 24

Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.

FOUR THINGS: WK 2: EAGLES – RAMS

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/09/17
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

LAST week we absolutely shat the bed! Instead of complaining about that, I’m focusing on the upcoming game. Please. Step into Week Two with me.

Lost in all of last week’s wreckage, was the fact that the Eagles showed an ability to start fast. Given that this week’s opponent still looks like their slow-starting 2019 edition, there’s a definite advantage to be had. If we jump on it.

The return of RB Miles Sanders with his knack for running routes and snagging passes, also gives us a decisive edge over the Rams Linebackers. In fact, the 3-4 scheme that they run, is similar to the system that Washington just abandoned. (After we swept it for three straight years.)

There are no rivals playing each other this week. That means (in the most extreme cases), we could all win, or we could all lose. A win over the Rams gets everyone realizing that our loss last week, was a fluke. A loss doesn’t bury us, but it could give teams the impression that we’re past our prime. That’s not a stink we want on us.

The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money.

So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Rams:

1) Run the football: At least 22 handoffs to RBs, have to happen. This line cannot pass protect for intermediate and deep routes, without threat of a run. Last week’s play selection (71% passing plays), will not get the job done. If we get off to a fast start again, the run game will help us sustain what we’ve built. Even if all it does is slow down pass rush on early downs.

2) Play more man coverage: The Rams like to employ WR Screens. Those are hard plays to execute with a CB shadow. It doesn’t have to be press coverage, but when the ball is in the air, the CB has to be ready to make the tackle (not hit) for a loss. Send the message early, that they have to throw away a large section of their playbook.

3) Get outside and play: Sprinkle in some play-action bootlegs with QB Carson Wentz, to open up quick underneath routes.

Instead of complaining about him not giving up on a play, why not give him options to salvage that play? Seriously. Why waste downs? The object of a drive isn’t to avoid a mistake, it’s to make enough plays to score points. QB Nate Sudfeld didn’t throw a single interception last week. Did it help? Nope. Not at all. This week, the coaching staff needs to help Carson make plays.

4) Capitalize on their punting: We need punts to come out fast and flat, or short and high. Either the ball needs to reach our PR before the coverage can get there, or it basically needs to be shanked. In either case, Special Teams would be back to being a contributing factor, and not just a daycare for back-up players.

If we do all these things we should win, with a score looking like…

PREDICTION: EAGLES 28 – Rams 17

Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.

FOUR THINGS: WK 1: EAGLES – FOOTBALL TEAM

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/09/10
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, free agents, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Rivals. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

EAGLES vs “Football Team”. My god. How does Washington not see how stupid that looks?

The 2020 season sees last year’s Division Champs, your Philadelphia Eagles, return with a bigger, beefier QB Carson Wentz. Back comes DT Malik Jackson. Added was NT Javon Hargrave. Now DT Fletcher Cox will see more one-on-one blocking. The same Fletcher Cox who beats double-teams! We added the power to control offenses.

Then we realized that we needed speed. Speed was our need. Greasy, fast speed!

So we added it. WR DeSean Jackson returns! Instead of making him our only source of speed, the Eagles also added WR Marquis Goodwin. Then WR John Hightower. Then WR Quez Watkins. Goodwin opted out of 2020, due to Covid-19 concerns. That leaves us with “only” three players who can blow the lid off of the defense, this Sunday.

A badly wounded Eagles team won the division in 2019. Then we lost in the first round of the playoffs. That made the team angry. And hungry. So they spent the offseason, sharpening, honing,  their edge so fine, that you can hear a breeze splitting against it. If the Eagles could defend in 2019, they can hunt in 2020.

Win the division and we’re in the playoffs. No nonsense about being the 7th team, or getting help to qualify. Win and we’re in. Beating 2020 means winning the division. So that’s the mission: Beat 2020.

The first Adam’s Apple that even now, trickles blood at the point of our sword? Washington.

Settle your affairs Washington! The Eagles are coming.

The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money.

So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the (ahem) “Football Team” :

1) Run the football: That means at least 24 handoffs this week. Washington’s defense is sporting a new scheme. That’s true. Still, their interior is the same guys that our Offensive Line has physically been pushing around for years now. This year however, they’re smaller at DE and OLB. That won’t fare well vs our 2-TE sets. Especially if we don’t give them a strong-side to read easily. I guess they could always walk the SS into the box. Right, DeSean?

2) Blitz off our right: The loss of LT Trent Williams was massive. So Washington is attempting to plug the hole with OT Geron Christian Sr. Yes, Senior. He’s just 24 years old, and he’s already listing himself as “Senior”. I suppose it’s so he isn’t mistaken for his 3 year old son. In any case, he’s basically Halapoulivaati Vaitai, in a Redsk- Football Tea- (Lord, give me strength), Washington jersey. Overload his side. Confuse him. Force their RB to give blitz help on the edge, and take away one more receiving option. Let’s get their QB holding that ball a little bit longer. 

3) Throw aggressively: SS Landon Collins is one hell of an ILB. Too bad that’s not what they signed him to play. That has led to one the most flammable secondaries you’ve ever seen.The funniest part was this offseason, when they gave CB Ronald Darby a boatload of money to pretend he’s hurt after blowing some more coverage assignments. This couldn’t be happening to a better team, and I mean that sincerely. A better team wouldn’t pay him. Get that ball down the field, Carson!

4) Make tackles: Seems like a silly thing to say, but winning has a great deal to do with confidence. Start out by doing things right, and the confidence will bloom. Not just that, but missed tackles might make Washington’s suck-ass players feel like they have a chance. Take a chainsaw to that shit while it’s still in the cradle. Make those tackles.

If we do all these things we should win, with a score looking like…

PREDICTION: EAGLES 34 – Red- (Ughhhh! Fuck it!) Redskins 17

Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.

EAGLES 2020 SCHEDULE PREVIEW

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/08
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFL, Offense, Preview, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

the linc.png

FIRST of all let me say, that this schedule is very nice! A Week 10 Bye would have been better than the Week 8 Bye that we got. However, with the uncertainty surrounding how much of this season will actually get played, while not perfect, this schedule is really really good.

This is a much better schedule than 2019’s, which I said last year was a trap. Because to hell with who’s on the schedule, it’s when the games fall that matters. Last year was loaded with traps. This year…not so much.

Understand, the Eagles won’t have a stout Defense in 2020. There is no feared pass-rusher. Our second level is a question mark. The Secondary just lost it’s leader. So for us to win 11 games, we’re going to have to put up a ton of points this year, and the roster has been stacked to do exactly that.

Home games. We get back to back homes games, and we get a stretch of three home games in the first half of the season. So from Pittsburgh through the Bye (W5 to W10), the Eagles never have to leave the state. As one die-hard Eagles fans pointed out,

no plane no plane

Away games. We get three sets of back to back road games. San Fran and Pittsburgh (W4, W5), are early in the year. Then coming off of our Bye (W10, W11), it’s just 2 hours up 95 to NY. The following week we don’t even break the time-zone flying to Cleveland. The only set that concerns me in terms of travel, are (W15, W16) at Arizona and Dallas.

Games that flat out concern me are

*Baltimore (W6) because running QB’s give us fits.

*Seattle (W12) because we have never beaten their running QB.

*Green Bay (W13) because it’s Lambeau in December. We beat them in 2019, but that game was in September. 

*New Orleans (W14) because like Seattle, they seem to have our number.

From a knee-jerk expectation standpoint, that still hints at a 12 – 4 record. Not bad, but let’s look closer at this thing. Let’s level the playing field and assume everybody stays healthy on all the rosters.

1. Washington. As long as they run a 3-4 defense, they’ll never beat this team. Especially without a QB. Right Alex?

Leg injury

2. LA Rams. Doug Pederson has Sean McVay’s number. Plus the Rams lost a ton of talent.

3. Cincinnati. Expect the Eagles defense to make life hard on the rookie QB.

4. San Francisco. Teams have tape on the 49ers. Andy Reid will give Doug the blueprint.

5. Pittsburgh. Getting their QB back is a plus, but now his weapons are just average.

6. Baltimore. This one will be trouble if nothing is done about our LB’s.

7. New York giants. Their new coaching staff is on it’s first short week.

garrett clapping

8. Dallas. Cowboys second straight road game vs a rested Eagles team.

9. BYE WEEK 7 – 1 (projected)

10. New York giants. Rested Eagles overwhelm inferior opponent.

11. Cleveland. Winnable game, but too much cockiness causes a needed stumble.

12. Seattle. No move in the offseason was made to shore-up their 27th ranked pass defense. The Eagles come into this game with weapons this year.

crying seahawk.jpeg

13. Green Bay. It’s Lambeau. In December. Those four words, in that order, are terrifying.

14. New Orleans. Winnable game. Third road game in a row, for a team that had a W6 bye.

15. Arizona. Not nearly enough effort went into keeping their tiny QB upright. Big mistake. Biiiig mistake. 

16. Dallas. Our second road game in a row. Whoever needs this game more, will win it.

17. Washington. This one gets goofy. Eagles back-ups are playing before the half.

piano

Likely 11 – 5

The only game that feels like a predetermined loss is Baltimore. That too could change if the Eagles sign a LB, or one of the young LB’s prove me wrong and becomes a stud. So yeah, the Eagles had better sign someone. 

 

 

2020 NFC EAST PRE-DRAFT PREDICTION

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/17
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Preview, Rivals, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

giants redskins.jpg

KEEP in mind, when these predictions come out, no one knows who will be drafted by which team. So this is an assessment of the team as it is staffed by veteran players with track records.

Rookies may contribute heavily to their team, but they don’t usually shake up the NFC East as a division. That being said, there’s a pretty good chance that what you see here, will be how it shakes out for the year.

Now let’s look at 2020:

Strongest Offense: PHILADELPHIA

This Offense won the division last year on spare parts. To imagine that they won’t be more potent at full strength, is naive. Oh, and they still have most of those spare parts under contract. Oh, and then there’s that whole thing about the players not having to learn a new system. Fact is, if the season were to start today (and we are discussing today’s rosters), Philadelphia’s second string would be more ready than their rival starters, who have yet to even do basic installations of their systems.

Weakest Offense: WASHINGTON

This unit has deficiencies everywhere, and they haven’t even decided on who will be their starting QB. That will lead to leadership issues, and a lack of uniformity in how players execute technique in their approach to the new offensive system.

Strongest Defense: PHILADELPHIA

Keep in mind this is mostly a rating of the athletic talent and experience. This rating does not take into account the defensive systems that teams will run. Talentwise, both New York and Washington are on Philadelphia’s heels, and Washington will likely run a better system. This however, is about how things stand today, BEFORE the draft, BEFORE camp, and BEFORE injuries. At this moment, Philadelphia owns the edge in talent, experience, and intel on rivals. Also keep in mind, anything that can improve for the other three teams, are also things which can still improve for Philadelphia.

Weakest Defense: DALLAS

The secondary is a mess. The hole left by an OLB’s injury in Week 11 last year, still has yet to be addressed. A series of desperation moves were made to shore up a defensive line that suffered a bug loss. Worse yet, if the offense sputters, the workload will shift to a defensive unit built for speed, not for the pounding of being on the field for 33 to 35 minutes per game.

Strongest Special Teams: WASHINGTON

Washington has the division’s most reliable kicking game, and the only return unit to be concerned about, at this point. On its own it won’t win any games, but if this unit can get some help, it could turn into a couple of upsets this season.

Weakest Special Teams: PHILADELPHIA / DALLAS

Neither team has a returner to be concerned about, and both allow too many punt return yards. It can be argued who has worse kicking. While Philadelphia’s kicking game is eroding slowly enough to barely notice it, Dallas is holding auditions for anyone who might be reliable. In either case, neither team shows much cultural respect for the hidden yardage game anymore.

Projected Winner: PHILADELPHIA

2.7 New boss

As it stands today, Philadelphia is a 9 win team. New York is a strong 7, with Dallas hovering at 6 (without their QB). Amazingly, Washington may see their win total double from 3 to 6.

Philadelphia did it’s rebuild early, and now gets to watch the rest of the division suffer through one. Despite the holes currently on the team, there is coaching stability, and cultural stability in the locker room. It’s a host of young players who have been battle-tested, working shoulder to shoulder with guys still on the roster. The roster doesn’t hope they can weather adversity, they know they can, because they’ve done it for the last three seasons. Heaven help the NFC East if the Eagles aren’t injury riddled this year

Darkhorse Winner: NEW YORK

Washington has no shot in 2020. Dallas has quite a bit of internal turmoil kicking off right now, and loading up on troubled players, is not the way to overcome internal adversity. Should Philadelphia decide to secede from the NFL, then New York would have the best chance at winning the division. Otherwise, this one is pretty much a wrap for 2020.

CHANGE MY MIND

2020 EAGLES

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/16
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Reviews, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

the big bird

LAST season an injury riddled Philadelphia Eagles team, won the NFC East with an overall record of 9 – 7, and a 5 – 1 division mark. This was immediately followed by a Wild Card playoff loss. While Philadelphia is the only team in the division not to get a brand new head coach, the staff on both sides of the ball underwent dramatic renovations. Division rivals who thinks they know this team, may be in for a massive shock to the system.

Now let’s get a look at what the Pre-Draft 2020 Eagles roster, tells us about the team today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Wentz lasers.jpg

Carson Wentz played all 16 games last year and threw for a career-high 4,039 yards. This he did with an injury depleted receiving group. His mobility was also back on display, as he accounted for 243 rushing yards. The knocks on him are that early in the year he took too many sacks, which led to too many fumbles. By seasons end, those issues seemed to evaporate. If he starts off 2020 at that level, MVP candidacy will be a part of his season.

Given that Wentz started and finished every game in 2019, and given that the 5 starts he missed in 2018 were all due to coaches discretion, the only real games he missed due to being injured, were the ones from 2017. So we can officially deep six the “injury prone” label. Behind him is Nate Sudfeld on a one year deal. Sudfeld isn’t flashy, but when he’s in, the trains still run on time. Given his track record, and familiarity with all things Eagles, it would’ve been in the Eagles best interest to sign him to a longer contract. Kyle Lauletta flamed out in his only year in New York, but the Eagles have a better position staff, and may be able to get something from the lad. If so, they may discover yet another Diamond from Exton. (+)

RB:

card.miles.sanders

Miles Sanders is the guy. This almost definitely will not be a committee position in 2020. Sanders can run the ball, catch the ball, and pass protect. While he is an every down back, he may not be an every situation back. Hard yards up the middle, and heavy workloads don’t seem to favor him. While he was productive when asked to carry the load, it came at a cost. An ankle injury in Week 17, became a knee injury during the playoff loss. It was bad enough for him to need crutches and be asked about surgery. (He didn’t need it.)

Unlike 2019, Sanders won’t split carries for nine weeks. He’ll be in harness from Week One this year. The insurance policies behind Sanders are Boston Scott and Elijah Holyfield. Holyfield is as green as St. Patrick’s Day. Scott had some big moments in 2019, but didn’t demonstrate much in the way of consistency. He had some short TD runs, but he had plenty of carries between the tackles, that went nowhere too. He looks great on Screen passes, but if Sanders goes down, the Eagle are up shit’s creek, because there is no meaningful depth here. (-)

WR:

Alshon and Carson 2017

At the moment this group is no less dangerous than it was last year. Alshon Jeffrey is back to win contested and jump balls in the end zone. Show me the film of the last time he lost one of those contests. DeSean Jackson is back to win foot races to the end zone. Show me the last time he lost one of those. This is the 2020 starting pair for the Eagles, unless they can somehow find a way to upgrade. Greg Ward is likely the new slot receiver. While he’s no burner, he’s a very good route runner with RELIABLE hands, who understands that he needs to uncover quickly to give his QB a place to go with the ball. He’s also proved that he can start on the outside. If he gets the snaps, don’t be surprised to see a 50 catch year from him.

The Eagles also have J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, but so far that doesn’t mean much. Shelton Gibson is also lurking back there, after spending the 2019 regular season on the Browns Practice Squad. There is no secret that the Eagles will spend a high draft pick here, so the landscape WILL change. That said, it’s already dangerous and three players deep, with targets that the triggerman already trusts to get the job done. (+)

TE:

Zach Ertz Dallas Goedert

Zach Ertz 88 catches, 916 yards, 6 TD’s. Dallas Goedert 58 catches, 607 yards, 5TD’s. That’s a combined 144 catches, 1,523 yards, 11 TD’s. There is no more dynamic duo at this position in all of football. Philadelphia boasts a pair of highly reliable targets who also function as capable blockers. And just to rub it in, Josh Perkins is a third stringer who can be split wide, and force secondaries to respect him down the field. (+)

OT:

lane vs watt.jpg

Perennial Pro Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson is still indisputably one the best in the game. The situation at LT however, depends on who you ask. Some think that second year man Andre Dillard is ready to takeover for the departed Jason Peters, others think he’s a bust in the making. In limited action at LT in 2019, Dillard looked like a rookie in the NFL, who was frequently left on an island. He clearly needs coaching, but it’s far too early to pull the panic lever. In limited action at RT, he was an unmitigated disaster, and had to be sat down. This indicates a player who gets away from his core concepts and fundamentals too easily. That’s fixable, but it’s also the pin in a grenade looking to go BUST!

Depth at this position looks like Matt Pryor who looks far better when moved inside. Jordan Mailata is still on the roster, but his back issues might make 2020 his wrap-up, if he can’t get on the field for the third year in a row. There is a blue chipper here, but this position has far too much to prove to just sign off on it. (-)

G:

RG Brandon Brooks has been voted to the last three Pro Bowls. LG Isaac Seumalo has never been voted to one. That’s not a mistake. Having played his entire career on an Offensive Line that featured 4 Pro Bowl mainstays, it’s not that Seumalo plays on a line that garners no attention. The fact is, he’s an average player at best; or a sub-par player who’s being carried, at worst.

Brooks ended his 2019 season with a dislocated shoulder. It remains to be seen what if any ill-effects will linger as a result. It also remains to be seen if the lingering issues will be all in his head. Brooks already suffers from an anxiety disorder, which flared up in 2019, because he was given a contract extension, that he became worried about living up to. Packing a “comeback” on top of those weekly attacks, which cause him to vomit before every game, may be a tipping point.

Depth at the position looks like Matt Pryor who played solid when filling in for Brooks. Despite all the listed drama, this position has been stable, and advertised as one of the NFL’s best for years now. (+)

C:

Jason Kelce is the best pivot in the division, and it’s not even close. Still, there are rumors that he’s considering retirement. If this is the case, then the Eagles have to begin the transition this year. The Eagles brought in two undrafted rookies in 2019. Keegan Render and Nate Herbig. Based on 2019 preseaon play, Herbig looks like the odds on heir. However, this draft has a couple of guys that could be worth a pick. That’s all in the future though. For now, Kelce is definitely the best in the division and possibly the best in the game. (+)

In a nutshell:

The only question here is whether or not LT Andre Dillard is ready. There are too many weapons here for the QB to be sabotaged by shitty blindside protection. If that area is stabilized, this Offensive unit should finally be able to do many of the things that everyone predicted it would do in 2019. (+)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

2019 brandon graham

Brandon Graham is a productive and technically sound player, vs either the run or the pass. While he gets sacks and piles up hurries, he’s not really a pass rusher to be feared. Derek Barnett’s game was supposed to be winning hand battles to gain access to passers. However, his tendency to flatten the edge instead of setting it, helps opponents salvage too many plays. (This is why down for down, current free agent Vinny Curry was far more effective than Barnett in 2019).

It took a minute for the light to go on for Josh Sweat, but in 2019 it clicked for him. He however, may need to add another 10 pounds, before he can be a starting player at this position, in this division. Daeshon Hall produces when he gets an opportunity, but he’s stuck behind other players contracts right now. (Sorry fella, but that comes with the game, sometimes.)

This position is not as productive as it should be. Also, they just don’t have a scary pass rusher. For that reason, I think a player will be picked on either Day One or early on Day Two of the Draft. Still, the Eagles are productive, and have two back-ups who would be legit NFL starters, with yet two more promising prospects, waiting in the wings. Depth and production are always a great combo. (+)

DT:

2019 Fletcher Cox Daniel Jones

While teams don’t double Fletcher Cox on every play, every time they don’t, he reminds them that it was stupid not to. Be it run or pass, the man wrecks blocking schemes like they were homes. While newly signed former Steeler, Javon Hargrave, made his bones as an “A” gap penetrator, he can also hold the point of attack.

Coming back from a Lisfranc injury, is Malik Jackson. Jackson is more of an interior pass rusher, and thus he has a reputation as being extremely disruptive on the inside. Hassan Ridgeway isn’t really a pass rusher or a run stuffer. He’s a scrapper. He’s not really starter material. He’s not a 40 snap guy. What he is, is great in bursts. When he subs in, the opponent isn’t getting anything in the way of a break.

FIFTH down on the list is 350 pound Anthony Rush. Rush is a space eater, and block absorber. When he’s in the “A” gap, teams have a much harder time doubling Cox. Rush made life a lot easier for Cox in late 2019.

I’ve never seen anything like this at this position. Never. Not on any team. This position isn’t just five players deep, it’s five players who each make each other better, deep. Jackson’s a back-up, who’s been to a Pro Bowl, and started in a Super Bowl. Again, here he’s a back-up! It’s almost silly! There’s no way the season opens with all five of these players on the roster. No way. The NFL and the laws of supply and demand regarding talent, just won’t allow for such a thing. It’s unnatural. It’s flat-out not real. (+)

OLB:

Nate Gerry has trouble with interior linemen, so he was a liability vs the run when the Eagles tried to play him on the inside. Once he was moved outside, he couldn’t stop making plays. More importantly, he started preventing opponents from making plays.

FA addition, Jatavis Brown isn’t suited to the pounding of playing this position in this division. At 221 pounds, if he’s here to be a Nickel/Dime guy, that may work. Asking him for more than that is likely asking for trouble. He’s a career back-up who was pressed into starting 10 games in 2018, but he was promptly returned to the bench in 2019. So odds are that he didn’t impress.

2019 Genard Avery half sack

Genard Avery is more of a pass rusher. Given that the Eagles don’t like to blitz, it remains to be seen if Avery will need to switch positions. At this point Alex Singleton is a kick coverage guy. (-)

MLB:

Duke Riley and T.J. Edwards are the current candidates for this spot. Riley, at 218 pounds is impossible to take seriously as a starting LB on the edge, and even less so in the middle. His role here seems limited to Nickle packages and kickoff coverage. Edwards logged four starts in 2019, both in the middle and on the outside. The Eagles organization seems quietly hellbent on finding a way to get him on the field. (Trivia facts: The Eagles won all four of Edwards starts, and didn’t allow more than 17 points in any of them.) The team could have a future with Edwards in the middle. However, they haven’t made it his spot yet, and they have no depth even if they had done so. That said, this position cannot be graded well at this point. (-)

S:

FS Rodney McLeod make tackles, and plays on the ball, despite being stuck with having to cover deep from sideline to sideline. Jalen Mills moves from corner to SS. He already knows the concepts, the calls and many of the surrounding players, so his learning curve shouldn’t be very steep at all. The issue will be in deciding how to utilize him best. His lack of a second gear hurt him on the boundary, but if the Eagles play him in the box, it will only make that problem seem worse. Lining him up outside of the box, basically takes the team out of Single-high coverage and puts us in a Two Deep look. (Which I would be all for.)

Philadelphia native Will Parks comes in to push Mills for the starting role. The Eagles traded for Marcus Epps in 2019 and he only played 7 games for the Birds. That said, he played more as time went on. The loss of Malcolm Jenkins is a massive blow to the locker room, but the fact is, this position should still perform effectively on the field. Especially given that the position is faster and deeper in experience than it was a year ago. (+)

CB:

The big story here is the addition of former Lion, Darius Slay. If he’s as good as advertised in man coverage, then he will allow the Eagles to play their Cover One/Cover Three scheme, without as much need for help over the top.

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Odds are, the other starting spot will go to Sidney Jones. Everyone seemed to be measuring him for his ‘Bust’ label, when suddenly near the end of 2019, the light seemed to click for him. He’s not out of the woods yet, but at least he looks like he’ll be getting a chance to redeem himself. Jones could be challenged for the spot by Rasul Douglas, and Cre’Von LeBlanc.

Douglas has started 18 games over the last three seasons, but he flat out cannot cover deep speed. He diagnoses, tackles, and has very good ball skills. However, on an every down basis, in the Eagles Cover One/Cover Three scheme, Douglas is just too flammable. Unless (like Jalen Mills) his position is changed, the Eagles will never get the maximum out of him.

LeBlanc is a favorite of the Defensive Coordinator, but injuries and a need for someone who excels in the Nickel, kept LeBlanc off the edge. That may be where former Ram, Nickell Robey-Coleman comes in. Coleman brings a reputation as one the NFL’s best at covering the slot. Avonte Maddox has also started inside and outside, but with two players being pulled in and paid well, and with LeBlanc free to play the outside now, it seems as if the Front Office is already looking past Maddox at this position.

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Setting the scheme aside and just looking at the athletes, this is an experienced, versatile, and deep group of battlers. Of these six players, five have started playoff games. Two have Super Bowl rings, and a third has been to one. This is the best group in the division, and it’s not even close. (+)

In a nutshell:

There is a hole right through the heart of this unit. The second level is ill-equipped to handle a physical 16 game schedule, particularly in this division. As a result the rest of the unit will have to make for that area’s shortcomings, instead of trying to max out the whole unit’s potential. Couple that with a questionable defensive system, and it doesn’t matter how good the athletes are. A strong Draft at LB may salvage this unit, but as of today, it isn’t a strength for this team. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

Cam Johnston has been very consistent from last year to this. His average came down from 48.1 yards to 46.4, and his net came down from 42.7 to 42.3. He had 31 punts returned for 194 yards (6.2) in 2018, and 32 punts returned for 207 (6.4) in 2019. On 10 more punts in 2019, you could argue that it was a lower percentage of his punts returned (45% vs 50%), but the point would be the same.

That high number of returns indicates that he’s outkicking his coverage and allowing returners to think they have a chance to affect the game. On the surface, the stats make it seem like he’s good but not great. In reality he’s giving hope to the opponent, and that is not a strength. (-)

K:

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Jake Elliott as far as points was as accurate as he’s ever been with a career-highs in Field Goal percentage (84.6) ,and Extra Point percentage (94.6). Although his accuracy from 40 to 49 dipped for a second year in a row (92.3 in 2017, 87.5 in 2018, 71.4 in 2019). That’s a 20% slide in two years.

Oh, there’s more!

On his kickoffs, only 64.2% were touchbacks. That saw 27 returned for an average of 23.8 yards a pop, and 1 came back for a touchdown. His kickoffs just aren’t long enough, consistently enough.

On FG attempts of 50 yards or longer, he was just 2 of 4 (50%), putting him at 4 for 9 (44%) over the last two seasons.

Also we were 0 for 2 on Onside Kicks, and his FG fake resulted in him throwing an interception.

He was however, just signed to a five year extension with 10M guaranteed, so bugger me to figure out where his motivation to improve will come from. (-)

RS:

Aside from WR Greg Ward and RB Boston Scott, there really isn’t anyone else for this duty to go to. DeSean Jackson and Miles Sanders are now too valuable to risk in such a fashion, and none of the other Eagles on the roster who have kickoff and/or punt return experience, are likely to make the final roster.

Neither Ward nor Scott have proven to be much more than a placeholder for the positions so far. (-)

In a nutshell:

None of the deficiencies here are genuine deficiencies. What they are, is one no-frills aspect stacked atop another no-frills aspect. Put bluntly, there is nothing special about the Eagles Special Teams. There is nothing here to hang their hats on. The entire premise seems to be “Just don’t lose it for us.” This unit doesn’t seem capable of contributing to a win on it’s own. (-)

 

BOTTOM LINE:

This looks like a team that will be able to score. The question is, will they be able to stop anyone or win close games? Right now, due to nothing more than arrogance, that looks pretty dubious.

shoot_yourself_in_the_foot

It seems yet another Eagles coaching staff, wants to attempt re-inventing the wheel. It may happen, but while the Eagles are experimenting with concepts, their division rivals will be trying to improve at winning football games. Not a good look so far for Philly.

2020 Cowboys

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/15
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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LAST year the Dallas Cowboys finished 8 – 8 overall and 5 – 1 in the division. Their defensive rankings from 2019 are meaningless because their new head coach will of course hire a new defensive coordinator. Offense is another story though. The Cowboys kept the offensive coordinator for last year’s 6th ranked scoring offense, which was 1st in yards per game (431), 2nd in passing (296.9), and 5th in rushing (134.6). So on offense the thinking is that the Cowboys will pick up where they left off.

Let’s get a look at the 2020 Pre-Draft Cowboys roster, to get an idea of who this team is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Assuming Dak Prescott signs a contract and reports to camp, the Cowboys have a reliable, young passer who set career highs in pass attempts (388), completions (596), passing yardage (4,902), yards per pass (8.2), oh and touchdowns too (30). The only problem here? Currently Prescott technically isn’t under contract yet. So he technically can’t count in this rating.

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So let’s talk Cooper Rush! He threw three passes in 2017, and he even completed one of them. For 2 yards. Rush flashes a career passer rating (so far) of 42.4. He is a true rarity, as he’s one of a handful of QB’s with more career attempts (3) than passing yards (2). Rush’s back-up is Clayton Thorson, a 2019 fifth round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles. Thorson didn’t last the entire preseason before he was cut loose. (-)

RB:

Even in a “down year”, Ezekiel Elliott posted 1,357 rushing yards and 12 scores. All of this on “only” 301 carries. That marks his second 300 carry season in a row, and his fourth in three years. His workload (or carrying around his heavy contract) is clearly taking a toll on him. He now checks himself out of games, for breathers more often than in prior years.

Also, he only had 4 rushes of longer than 20 yards. (For perspective, Philadelphia Eagles rookie Miles Sanders had 5 of those, on roughly half the carries.) Elliott’s longest run of the season, was just 33 yards. Despite his heavy workload (or maybe because of it), his rushing yards per game dropped for the third straight year in a row. (108.7 in 2016, 98.3 in 2017, 95.6 in 2018, 84.8 in 2019.)

Tony “Zeke Who?” Pollard put up a pretty good rookie campaign of 455 on 86 carries. Not bad given that there weren’t many carries left, once the team finished feeding their Zeke. So the Cowboys have some talent and depth here. (+)

WR:

Amari Cooper was heavily rumored to be joining the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020, but he inked a long-term deal to keep him in Dallas. However, what he did do in 2019, was put up career highs in yards (1,189), yards per catch (15.1) and touchdowns (8).

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Michael Gallup has really come into his own posting 1,107 yards and 6 scores, in his second year. That practically doubled all of his rookie stats. On this roster, beyond Gallup, no other player at this position caught more than 5 balls in 2019. Depth is an issue. (+)

TE:

Missing out on the TE of their dreams in 2018, because the Philadelphia Eagles drafted him a pick before they did, the Cowboys had to bring in current Las Vegas Raider Jason Witten, to help mentor Blake Jarwin in 2019. Jarwin is a big, athletic target. If he’s given a lot more opportunities, he has a chance to be really, really average. This upcoming season will be his fourth in a Cowboys uniform. If he really had chops to be a starter, Witten would have never been brought back. That said, as surrounded as he is with weapons, he should be able to at least duplicate the 63 catches for 529 yards that Witten posted in 2019. If he can’t, this entire offense will be in serious trouble. (-)

OT:

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LT Tyron Smith for 13 games per year, is one of the best in the sport. I say 13 games because every year, for the last 4 years, he plays exactly 13 games. La’El Collins is a good RT, but can we be honest? He’s not as good on the end, as he was inside. Still, it’s a very talented group. As far as back-up experience, Brandon Knight started in the Week 7 loss to the Jets… (+)

OG:

Zack Martin is one of the best in the game. He’s a metronome of consistency. Whether it’s pass or run. Down near the goal line? Score a touchdown, 1-2-3. On the other side is Connor Williams. Williams missed a few games in 2019, and was ably subbed by Xavier S’ua-Filo and Joe Looney. This group is a luxury to have with a pair of back-ups who would start on half of the NFL’s rosters. (+)

C:

Travis Frederick is football’s second best Travis, and second best pivot. (Both men above him are surnamed Kelce, BTW.) Kudos to him for coming back from Guillain-Barre syndrome to start all 16 games in 2019. Frederick even played well enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod, where he would back-up the Kelce from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Wait! Never mind. Frederick retired. Leaving Joe Looney as the Cowboys best option at the moment. Also there is no depth. So uh… I’m just gonna put this right here. (-)

In a nutshell:

Depending on who comes back, and who actually reports to camp, this offense has all the ingredients it needs. However, they are likely to stumble out of the gate, without last year’s starting QB. They are also likely to stumble if last year’s QB signs, but misses any of training camp. This year’s offense will be last year’s offense, but with a new head coach, there will be different nuances to it. It will hit it’s stride, but that may take 4 or 5 weeks. (+)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

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Demarcus Lawrence has trended down (14.5 sacks, then 10.5, then 5.0) for the second straight year since signing his 105M dollar contract. Now that the NFL is willing to overlook Randy Gregory’s desire to put marijuana ahead of football, maybe he can have a career now.

Hey! Speaking of introducing an unstable element to the roster, Aldon Smith was recently added. If we’re being accurate and honest, his first two years were monster, but the three that followed showed steep decline. Now he’s now 30 years old, 35 pounds over his 265 pound playing weight, and coming back after a 4 year banishment.

There are three other guys on the roster, but they’re just guys. This position is loaded with reputations based on yesterday’s talent, but it lacks a starting pair, any depth, or truly dedicated players. (-)

DT:

Antuan Woods is a stop-gap player, so the Cowboys continue their search for an interior pass rusher. Thus, Dallas raided Carolina’s dust bin, and signed Gerald McCoy, and Dontari Poe. The two had 9 sacks between them last year, but they also comprised the starting interior that allowed 143 rushing yards per game (29th) as well.

Last year’s hope at this position was second round draft reach pick Trysten Hill. However, Hill’s lack of give a damn put him in the doghouse of the last head coach. This new regime already seems to be looking past him. Which is fine since Tyrone Crawford is there to hold down a spot in the rotation. There’s enough veteran savvy to provide a solid rotation here. (+)

OLB:

It took NINE years, but Sean Lee finally played 16 games in a season. He makes solid tackles and good reads, but he’s an absolute liability in outside coverage. His eyes are still good, but he just doesn’t have the athleticism to stay with opponents consistently.

Leighton Vander Esch is perhaps a tad over-hyped, but he’s still a really good young player. The neck injury that ended his 2019 season was upgraded from “Stinger”, to “ Herniated disk”, all the way up to a surgery in January 2020. Jerry Jones was asked about it during the Scouting Combine (which feels like years ago now). The grapevine says LVE will be kept away from contact until Training Camp opens. At least.

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Luke Gifford and Joe Thomas are the back-ups here. Both had a chance to step up when LVE went down, and they did so well that the Cowboys signed a guy off of his couch. And started him Week 17. Until LVE gets back, this position is an open wound. (-)

MLB:

Jaylon Smith piled up 142 tackles last year, and even defensed 9 passes. He did it while starting all 16 games. His tackles have improved every year since he’s been in the NFL. He’s a hard guy not to root for. Behind him is Justin March-Lillard, but Sean Lee is a better fit. (This position is the one that also fits Lee best.) (+)

S:

New signee and former Bear, HaHa Clinton-Dix, is hardly worth worrying about in pass defense anymore. While his 2019 season looks good at first glance, most of it was done in a Week 3 game vs Washington. In fact, 3 of his last 5 career interceptions are against Washington. In fact, in 2018 (as a Packer), he intercepted them in Week 3, and was traded to them after Week 8. His remaining 9 weeks in the NFC East were not good ones for him.

Xavier Woods was a steal as a 6th round pick, but he seems to have hit a definite ceiling.

xavier-woods.jpg

This may be the wrong Xavier Woods. Let me check on that.

His play is competent and steady, but not game-changing. The talent level is has-been, not up-and-coming. They have no experienced depth and don’t match-up well with the talent they will see across from them in this division. (-)

CB:

In 36 career starts Chidobe Awuzie has 3 career interceptions. No one is afraid to throw to his side. Jourdan Lewis is a Nickel corner. However, the team has already started trying to talk their fan base into him, as an every down outside starter. Looks small, and plays small vs receivers who play big. His transition will not go well. Like the other players at this position, Anthony Brown gets a number of deflections, but doesn’t catch many.

In fact, in the last 4 years, these three players combined for 143 games, with 81 starts, and a grand total, I said TOTAL, of 11 interceptions. Free Agent Maurice Canady was added from the Jets, and he gives the Cowboys some experienced depth. Nobody fears this group. (-)

In a nutshell:

This unit is where 2019’s 8-8 record came from. This defense doesn’t get to the QB, or to the ball like a top unit should. Most of that can be traced not to the coaches, but to the talent that gets put on the field. This unit matches up very poorly for trying to defend against the top of this division. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

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Chris Jones is coming off of a career worst Average (41.6) and career worst Net (37.0). This marks the third straight year where he averaged under 45 yards per boot, which had been his norm from 2013 through 2016. Also, his net dropped again, for the third straight year. While only 18 of his 50 punts (36.0%) were returned, opponents averaged a respectable 8.5 per return, hinting that there may not be enough hang-time on shorter and shorter punts. (This is a man who once hit the Jumbotron.) Jones has more or less always been middle of the road, but his clearly diminishing leg strength could make him a defensive liability this year. (-)

K:

Dallas signed former Ram, Greg Zuerlein, to a three year deal this offseason. What Zuerlein has going for him is that for the last 3 years, his touchback percentage on kickoffs hasn’t dipped below 76.05%. So return men don’t see many opportunities.

Scoring however… That’s a different matter. In 2019 he had a Field Goal accuracy mark of 72.7%. He attempted FGs in 14 games, and had a miss in 9 of them, including a record of 1 – 2 in games decided by 3 or fewer points. (If you’re a Cowboys fan, just imagine Brett Maher with less range.)

Competing with Zuerlein is Kai Forbath. Forbath kicked for the Cowboys for three games in 2019, hitting all 10 FG attempts and all 10 extra points. The knock on Forbath is that even with the new rules, returners frequently opt to return his kickoffs instead of fair catching them. During his stints with New England and Jacksonville, he didn’t even handle that duty.

The third player at this position, (yeah, third) is inexperienced Tristan Vizcaino. Why he’s on the roster is anybody’s guess. But if you have three players at this position, you don’t have a player at this position. (-)

RS:

WR Ced Wilson is the teams best option at PR. Last year he returned 2 for 13 yards. He also had 3 KR for 64 yards, with the longest being 22. RB Tony Pollard had 14KR for 245 yards, but his long of 30, and average of 17.5, suggest that he stay on the sidelines. (-)

In a nutshell:

This part of a football team is responsible for setting the table, and establishing a sense of momentum. It seems however, that the Cowboys never got that memo. The result is that the Cowboys will have to run the race, while dragging 1/3 of their team.

BOTTOM LINE:

This is what happens when a staff understands football talent, but doesn’t understand football nuances. Then again, we’re talking about the American southwest aren’t we? It’s not a region that’s historically known for getting either nuance or subtle context.

vision

Until the team understands that it’s no longer 1984, they will be forced further and further into irrelevance, while they and their fans listen to the Judds “Grandpa” to help the days ease on by.

2020 Giants

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/14
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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LAST year the New York (g)iants finished 4 – 12 overall, and 2 – 4 in the division. Their 2019 offensive and defensive rankings are irrelevant, because under rookie head coach Joe Judge, there will be plenty of change. An early wise move by Judge, was hiring former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett to be his offensive coordinator. Aside from his offensive expertise, Garrett also brings current knowledge of the division, as well as intimate knowledge of his former roster. This could give New York a chance to hit the ground running.

Let’s get a look at what the 2020 Pre-Draft giants roster, tells us about who New York is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Daniel Jones was anything but consistent in his rookie year, but given that it was also the swan song for Eli Manning, it seems like a pass has to be given here for that inconsistency. As far as his 23 turnovers, that can’t be looked off. His 18 fumbles also can’t be ignored. Those numbers are even more alarming when you realize that he missed 3 games.

On the plus side, he posted 279 rushing yards last year. Manning never did that. He never had a season of even half that. Jones’s mobility allows the coaching staff a chance to get creative and revamp what the NFL has come to know, as giants football.

Behind Jones is the serviceable Colt McCoy. McCoy plays with the confidence of a starter, and this is the most loaded team he’s ever been on. The giants could do worse for a back-up. Still, at this stage Jones has yet to demonstrate that the game isn’t too big for him. His lapses are pivotal, too frequent, and frequently in pivotal moments. (-)

RB:

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Saquon Barkley ran for 1,003 rushing yards, but the way he produced them, had many people raising an eyebrow. Many games featured him being held under wraps, until a big play would boost his numbers, and make it seem like he’d been good all game long.

In reality, Barkley’s performances were inconsistent and unreliable during games. He has the talent, but he has to find a way to matter on more downs. Wayne Gallman had one big game against Washington during a three game stretch without Barkley. During the same stretch, rookie John Hilliman got 30 handoffs, lost two fumbles, never scored, and rushed for just 91 yards. Former Titan Dion Lewis was added, for some reason.

If anything happens to Barkley, this team will remove their helmets, go to the sideline, and sit quietly until the season ends. Still, they do have one of the most dynamic players in the league. If the new staff can get consistency out of that talent, this offense might make some noise. (+)

WR:

Last year, I soundly mocked the combination of Sterling Sheppard and Golden Tate as this team’s starters last year, and was right on the money. With the departure of Odell Beckham last year, Sheppard said that he looked forward to leading. He immediately developed into a poor man’s Cole Beasley, with Tate playing Nightwing to his Robin.

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Enter fifth round pick Darius Slayton. He gave the offense a little more size, and lot more speed on the perimeter. He also made plays that Sheppard and Tate don’t have the kind of athleticism to make. Corey Coleman returns from injury on a one year deal, but he hasn’t played any significant ball since 2017. The position has some talent and veteran stability. While that may not scare anyone, it allows for development. (+)

TE:

With a third year under his belt now, it’s possible to discuss trends and patterns regarding Evan Engram. In his rookie year he posted 722 receiving yards. In his second year he posted 577. In his third year, 497. Games played? 15, 11, and 8 respectively. At this rate he’ll play 6 games and catch for 386 yards in 2020. He needs to pick his game up.

During the 2019 season, the team picked up Kaden Smith, formerly of the 49ers. Smith started once Evans went down for the year, but he displayed no traits that make you think that New York doesn’t need help here. Also formerly of the 49ers, is Levine Toilolo. His 6’8” frame would suggest red zone menace, but his 97 catches and 8 TD’s in 7 years, tell the tale of a blocker. (-)

OT:

So LT Nate Solder is back, but he was a massive disappointment in 2019. Former Cowboy Cam Fleming will likely get the nod at RT. Behind these two are a pair of benchwarmers, who are as green as clover. (-)

G:

Will Hernandez wasn’t as good in 2019 as he was in 2018. Some blame him, some blame the guy to his left. I partly blame the coaches, and largely blame the guy to his immediate right.

Supposedly Hernandez is missing alignment reads, but why does that fall to a LG? Is every man on the o-line responsible for his own read? Who calls the protections? Who calls the slides? I can’t think of the last LG to do that. If there’s a communication issue, it doesn’t rest with the LG.

At RG is Kevin Zeitler, who wasn’t the rampaging failure that I predicted him to be last year. That’s not to say that he played like a Pro Bowler, but at least New York can say they plugged a leak. Nick Gates could step in at RG, if the rumor of Zeitler sliding outside, happens to come true. (+)

C:

Any time an o-line has communication issues up front, look no further than the guy in the middle. In this case that would be John Halapio.

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From all appearances the game is faster than Halapio can process mentally. That results in an out of sync o-line. Spencer Pulley is the reserve, but he’s also the guy they demoted, for the problem child they stuck with last year. (-)

In a nutshell:

This unit has critical issues with both communication, and ball security. The QB is no longer a rookie so his reads should be better. How much better remains to be seen. Whether o-line communication can get better without swapping out the C, is a major question. This offense can make some noise, but they have to stop waiting for it to fall into their laps, and take control of the situation. As the expression goes: Hope is not a strategy. (-)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

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(NOTE: The giants are listing nearly all of their linemen as “defensive linemen”. It’s a cheap ploy to create uncertainty among the shakier coaching staffs. Everyone knows that the giants are moving away from a pure 3-4 to more of hybrid 4-3/5-2 front. It’s just Three Card Monte. Now that we’ve sorted that, let’s look at who (as of today) would start at this position.)

Leonard Williams joined the team via trade, at midseason 2019. Honestly, there isn’t enough tape on him in a Giants jersey, to forecast whether or not he’ll be better than he was as a Jet. Reserve B.J. Hill was essentially demoted for Williams, and is a decent player. Oshane Ximines is a second year man likely in for a larger role. (+)

DT:

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2019 rookie, Dexter Lawrence came in and made an immediate splash, with 22 tackles and 2.5 sacks in his first eight games, while posting 4 tackles or more three times. Those may not seem like big numbers, but for a 342 pound rookie, essentially playing interior lineman, they were a damned fine start to a career. Then he hit a wall, and posted just 16 tackles for the remainder of the year, and no more 4 stop games. So this one has promise.

Having a huge body beside him to eat some double teams, allowed Dalvin Tomlinson to get more “iso” work inside. The result was his best year as a pro, posting 49 stops and 3.5 sacks. There is no reason not to expect more of the same in 2020. Austin Johnson was brought over from Tennessee. He’s not great, but teamed with R.J. Macintosh, the giants have size and experienced depth, which is never bad to have in reserve. (+)

OLB:

David Mayo is nothing special. He’s not big, or fast, or a good pass rusher, or a competent cover man. His biggest talent so far seems to be continuing to draw an NFL paycheck. Rookie Ryan Connelly got off to a start, before a blown ACL in week 4 shelved him for 2019. Teams will test the sharpness of his ability to change direction in 2020, so don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. Both Mayo and Connelly played inside in 2019’s 3-4 scheme, but right now it seems like the Giants will try a 4-3 hybrid look in 2020. Lorenzo Carter is suited to this position in a 3-4, but he’ll likely have to move to end, if the team does in fact switch systems. Kyler Fackrell was brought in off of Green Bay’s bench, on the strength of what seems like a fluke 2018 season. Aside from (possibly) Connelly everyone else here is just a pass rusher. (-)

MLB:

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Blake Martinez was plucked from Green Bay and has all the tools to be a star. Was that direct enough? (+)

S:

Jabrill Peppers. He’s the only player at this position on the roster to start an NFL game. The next most experienced player is 31 year old, nine year veteran Nate Ebner. Nine years. Zero starts. This has to be where that first draft pick lands. (-)

CB:

The big man on the block is free agent signee, James Bradberry. Bradberry is a big body who looks good on paper, but never looks quite as good in a game. Deandre Baker didn’t have an awesome rookie year, but he was a first round pick, so he started 15 games and will start in 2020. Julian Love started the final 5 games, and wasn’t much worse than anyone else at this position. In his defense, he was just a rookie taken in the fourth round. Sam Beal has yet to justify the Supplemental third round pick the team spent on him in 2018. Grant Haley, Corey Ballentine… New York has made a concerted effort to get young at this position. Young is good. Experienced is better. (-)

In a nutshell:

The Giants are what happens when a team leans too heavy on the idea that “pass rush wins games”. Pass rush helps, but if the rest of the defense can’t cover, then there is no pass rush. They are going to need a Connelly to be surprisingly good and add more talent in their secondary to have any shot at being a decent unit in 2020. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

While attempting the fewest punts of his career Riley Dixon had his best year so far in terms of Average (46.1), Net Average (42.3), lowest number of his punts returned (24), lowest number of return yards (136), and yards per return (5.6). He did however, have two blocked. Still, this guy’s foot will set a defense up well, and thus he gives his team a shot to win. (+)

K:

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This team needs to replace Aldrick Rosas. Honestly, I have no idea how he’s still on the roster this long after the season.

His 2019 season saw him connect on 12 of 17 Field Goal attempts (70.6%). Missing 4 out of 5 over 40 yards. However, he’d have only been the difference in 1 of the teams 12 losses. He also missed 4 extra points in 2019. In 2018 his FG kicking was 32/33 (97.0%), and in 2017 he was 18/25 (72.0%). That’s just too all over the map. A team can’t live that way.

His kickoffs continue to improve every year. In 2019, on 71 kickoffs, just 19 were returned (26.7%) for 18.5 yards per attempt, and yet again no touchdowns. Still, he needs replacing. (-)

RS:

The good news is that they seem to have a number of viable PR options. The bad news, is that none of them has ever taken a punt back for that tasty treat. So the position has babysitters, but no daddy. (-)

In a nutshell:

Aside from the punting, this unit needs serious help. Given that games are frequently won and lost on a toe; given that good starting field position for opponents often follows misses; and given that poor kicking leads coaches to go for it, in 4th down situations that they would rather not, this unit as a whole can’t be given a thumbs up. (-)

BOTTOM LINE:

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The Giants are a rebuild. They started their rebuild in 2017 when they hired GM Dave Gettleman, and he hired head Coach Pat Shurmur.

No one expects miracles in the first year, so fans mostly wrote 2018 off. Then Gettleman re-started the rebuild with a fire sale of Shurmur’s weapons in 2018. So of course no one expected much in 2019.

However, after 2019, the rebuild was re-re-started by ripping out Shurmur, and replacing him with this rookie head coach. So of course this means no expectations for 2020 either. I can just picture Gettleman telling everyone to “Trust the Process.” This team will suck until they fire the GM. As for 2020, call it 6 wins, 8 if they get off to a fast start. 

2020 Redskins

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/13
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 6 Comments

Redskins_logo_by_junkfunkio-d4po4ge

LAST year the Washington Redskins finished 3 – 13 overall, and 0 – 6 in the division. There’s no need to discuss their rankings because they hired a new head coach, in Ron Rivera. Rivera, already a defensive strategist, quickly hired Jack Del Rio to be his defensive coordinator, so you know what this team will hang it’s hat on. That being said coaches don’t wear helmets.

Let’s get a look at what the 2020 Pre-Draft Redskins roster, tells us about who Washington is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

The starting job is up in the air. The new head coach would like to see Dwayne Haskins compete with undrafted, former Panther, Kyle Allen. Alex Smith is still on the roster, but there is no news on his return from the broken leg he suffered in 2018.

While Haskins improved statistically throughout the 2019 season, there was never a point where he showed he has the ability to be more than a mid-tier passer. In five of seven starts, he failed to crack 200 yards passing. In three of those games, he failed to even reach 150. Add to that, the fact that Haskins isn’t dangerous with his feet. There isn’t a single special aspect to his physical skill-set, or his leadership traits.

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As for Kyle Allen taking over the starting job, it’s a fantasy. Disregard that noise. Allen started 2019 on a tear. Then, once teams got tape on him, the carriage turned back into a pumpkin, the horses turned back into mice, and yadda yadda, ad infinitum. In his 12 starts he was 5 – 7 , but lost every game where he attempted more than 34 passes. He’s nothing special. (Which is probably why he went undrafted).

Not that Haskins is a better option, but the Redskins still owe him 11M guaranteed, and they did spend a top 10 pick on him. Scuttlebutt has it that the Redskins are taking a QB with the second overall pick in the upcoming Draft. If that happens, then you can draw a chalk outline around the 2020 Redskins, before the sun rises on Day Two of the Draft. (-)

RB:

Adrian Peterson just got another year added to his contract. And why not? The 35 year old led the team in rushing, yet again in 2019. However, too often his yardage doesn’t come in key situations, when his team needs it. In six of the fifteen games he played in last season, he averaged under 3.0 yards per carry. That’s not a typo. Under. His longest run of 32 yards, didn’t happen until Week 17.

Derrius Guice has missed 27 of a possible 32 games, since being drafted in 2018. He missed his entire rookie season with a blown ACL in his left knee, and most of 2019 with MCL issues in his right knee. On the bright side, his left knee was fine in 2019. Also the MCL sprain that ended his season, was probably more of a team decision to save wear and tear, once it was clear that they weren’t going anywhere.

Moving on from Wendell Smallwood, they signed former Buccaneer Peyton Barber. Barber is what you get if you gave a slightly less explosive Wendell Smallwood, a lot more carries. (No really. Look both players up and compare them. And if you’re a Redskins fan, try not to cry.)

In any case, the Redskins are in trouble here. They have a situation of an aging body, and a damaged body, both backed up by a nobody. I sense an early Draft pick here (-)

WR:

Terry McLaurin is a hot name. Deep threat, big plays, 58 catches, 919 yards, (15.8) and 7 TD’s in his rookie year. This guy is the truth, right? Hold up.

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Of his three 100 yard games, two were against the Eagles, and one was against the Dolphins. (Two teams with shaky secondaries.) In the remaining 11 games that he played in, he never even reached 90 yards. In fact, in those remaining games, he totaled a mere 564 yards, with just 3 scores and an average of 12.8. So let’s power down that hype machine.

Steven Sims closed out 2019 by catching 4 touchdowns in the last three games. Thing is, he’s more of a slot/gadget guy, than starting material. Trey Quinn, started off “meh” and then cooled dramatically, before completely disappearing after Week 12. Kelvin Harmon won’t scare anyone, but he has good size and will make catches.

Cody Latimer is also on the roster, but in 6 years, he’s never seen more than 24 offensive touches in a season. (-)

TE:

Vernon Davis retired. Jordan Reed was released. Jeremy Sprinkle is a blocker, not a receiver. Hale Hentges made a splash during the last two weeks of the season, posting 6 catches for 90 yards and a TD.

These circumstances prompted the Redskins to sign Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas. It is doubtful either man will see opening day on the roster. (-)

OT:

Trent Williams is still on the roster, but he’s working hard to get off of it. Moses Morgan is a rock at RT. That’s the good news. The bad news is, the current answer at LT is likely Geron Christian. Or it’s recently signed, former Bears fill-in, Cornelius Lucas. (-)

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Moses Morgan and Brandon Scherff are one of the more formidable right sides in football.

G:

Washington handed RG Brandon Scherff a blank check to stay, and so he did. Ereck Flowers had a career year in 2019, which should come as no surprise since I told you that he would, last year. He translated that into a fat contract on another team. That led to the Redskins signing Wes Schweitzer. Schweitzer was a primary starter in Atlanta for two years before he played 15 games with just 7 starts in 2019. He started the final 5, but he was a back-up in 8 of the first 10. He’s that good. Don’t look for depth. There is no depth. (-)

C:

Chase Roullier is the starter, and Ross Pierschbacher will assume the number two spot. While nothing flashy, Roullier is steady. A team could do worse. (+)

In a nutshell:

They have half of an offensive line. They’re hoping that their ancient and injury prone backfield, can produce. They need to decide on a QB, neither of whom has anyone significant to throw to. This is an offense with no weapons, and no triggermen who could use those weapons in the first place. Worse yet, there is no cover for a triggerman to work behind. This offense is a shit storm. (-)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

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Jonathan Allen and Matthew Ioannidis are the best pair in the division. They’re big, fast, strong, every down players, who make a huge impact at their position despite playing in a 3-4 scheme. The team is strong here, as long as they don’t have to play their bench. Behind Allen and Ioannidis, it’s gossamer thin. Former Eagle Trayvon Hester, and (native Philadelphian) Tim Settle play the swing-end spot, but neither really has the feet, bend, or suddeness of the starters. Still, with as good as it is at the top, this position is pretty strong. (+)

DT:

Daron Payne starts at NT and is a force in the middle. Unlike many at his position, he doesn’t just eat blockers, he can beat blockers. Tim Settle also fills in here, and is decent as reserves go. Trayvon Hester also has experience inside, and can play here in a pinch. (+)

OLB:

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Ryan Kerrigan is coming off of the worst year of his career. Just 5.5 sacks and finished the year on IR. The future is apparently Montez Sweat. In his rookie year he posted 7 sacks, but proved just as one-dimensional as Kerrigan, showing that he’s a pass rusher only. Ryan Anderson stepped in for Kerrigan and looked good in his three starts to finish the year. You have to wonder whether or not Reuben Foster is still in the plans, and what his knee (2019 ACL, MCL) looks like. Four guys at this position, and not one of them can cover. That’s called a liability. Limited starters, backed up by players with the same limitation? Not good (-)

ILB:

Both Jon Bostic and Cole Holcomb logged 105 tackles and a sack in 2019, but weren’t much vs the pass. That’s probably why Thomas Davis was signed. Davis can play both the run and the pass, but he’s 36 and thrived playing the outside. This will be a position change. So the math looks like, old dog + new team + new position + new system = hopefully he’ll be his old self. No chance in hell. Still the team has some parts that they might be able to mix and match, so it can’t be counted totally out. (+)

S:

Landon Collins logged 117 tackles and a sack. Not bad numbers for a second level defender, but Collins plays in the secondary. After posting just four deflections and no picks, for a second straight year, for a second team, the nagging questions about his (lack of) ability to cover receivers, won’t be easily put to bed. Here is a picture of him picking off a pass last year.

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The team added D.C. native, Sean Davis, formerly of the Steelers. He missed all but one game of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, but appears to have pretty good ball skills. So far however, his real claim to fame, is being sued by a Chick-fil-A employee, for causing the kid’s classmates to bully him. The depth here is negligible. (-)

CB:

2019 Greg Wards first TD

After an Eagles Practice Squader put Josh Norman on a poster, the Redskins cried “No Mas!” Seriously. Almost as soon as the season was over, the team’s executives started throwing all of Norman’s shit out of a second story window. And he was the best they had!

By late March their best at the position were Fabian Moreau, and returning career back-up, Kendall Fuller. Put another way, if this position were a McDonald’s menu, these two players would be a bag of apple slices, and a small cup of ice. Which is why they totally overspent for ex-Eagle, Ronald Darby.

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Given that the Redskins (like the Eagles) play Single-high coverage, Darby will be asked to play a lot of man coverage. On the upside, Darby is very fast, very athletic, and does a fair job of contesting jump balls. On the downside, when he’s not injured, he’s either stumbling in coverage, missing tackles, or giving up touchdowns. And sometimes all three at once! (-)

In a nutshell:

The 2019 Redskins didn’t look bad vs the pass statistically, because teams opted for easy rushing yards. That said, this unit looks too much like it did at this point in 2019. They have strength up front, but the edges and back of this unit, will spend a lot of time on the wrong end of highlights this year. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

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P:

Tress Way averaged 49.6 yards per punt, this past season. He blasted a career long 79 yarder in a Week 13 win over Carolina. He also punted for a career-high 500 yards, on 10 punts with no blocks, in a Week 5 loss to New England.

Unfortunately, 39 of his 79 punts (49.3%) were returned for 354 yards or 9.0 yards per return. In fact, his 19 fair catches were his lowest since 2016, as opponents overwhelmingly chose to return the ball at a Return:Fair Catch ratio of 36:19.

This indicates that Way is still grossly out-kicking his coverage, and giving opponents a chance to make a momentum swinging play. Hidden yardage wins and loses games. While Way may be showing off a big leg, his placements are hurting the defense and very likely, costing his team wins. (-)

K:

Dustin Hopkins is one of those players who’s stable enough to keep, but always makes a team wonder what else is out there. Last season saw him post an 83% accuracy mark, with one attempt blocked. On the other hand, of his 68 kickoffs, only 17 (25%) were returned. (+)

RS:

WR Steven Sims is a KR guy to worry about. Posting 32 attempts, 819 yards (25.6), a 91 yard long, 3 returns of 40 yards or more, and a one brought back for a score. Not bad for a rookie, who also contributed five touchdowns on offense, posting both a 65 yard catch, and a 65 yard run. The addition of WR Cody Latimer, gives the Redskins depth in a spot that rarely has such a thing.

Sims was given an opportunity to PR, but that remains a trouble spot for the team. Still, he’s a back-up player who can change a game as a kick returner. That’s more than some teams in this division have. (+)

In a nutshell:

There is talent and stability here. The question is, can it be conducted to perform as a beautiful symphony, or will it continue to play like a middle school recital of “Three Blind Mice”?

BOTTOM LINE:

This team is a rebuild, but everyone knew that already. If they attempt to roll out a 3-4 concept with this roster, they’re going to spend a lot of time either having to play shootouts, or just being blown out on a regular basis. As this team is currently constructed, it has the look of a 4 win team.