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2021 WASHINGTON RE-

Posted by The BEAST on 2021/04/20
Posted in: breakdown, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

LAST year Washington went 7 – 9 overall, and 4 – 2 in the division. Their record was enough to win a historically bad division, after which they were unmasked as frauds, and given the bum’s rush from the first round of the playoffs. Still, winning a division beats finishing in second place, missing the playoffs, and blaming a rival team for not sending you. So they have that much going for them.

In any case, here is how Washington’s roster looks, about a week prior to the 2021 NFL Draft.

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OFFENSE

QB: Taylor Heinicke finished off the 2020 season by throwing for 300 yards in a 31-23 playoff loss. His gutty performance had many Redski- Washington fans excited to see what the kid would do in 2021. So the Reds- (Fuck.) Washington of course, went right out and signed free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick, to a one year, 10M$ deal. Proving once again, you can take the ‘R’ off the helmet, but you can’t take the mentally challenged out of the Football Team. It is worth noting that of the EIGHT previous team he’s been on, he doesn’t own a winning record as as starter, with ANY of them. Kyle Allen? Washington brought him back on a one year deal. Meanwhile he continues to rehab his broken/dislocated ankle. Careful Kyle! You coming back from a leg injury, may not be in Washington’s long-term plans. Right, Alex?

With Fitzpatrick’s deal being 6.5 times Heinicke’s, it tells you all you need to know about 2021’s pecking order. This position is currently a mess, with no clear path beyond this season. That alone may be enough to keep Washington from repeating as the division winner. (-)

RB: Antonio Gibson led the team in rushing with 795 yards and 11 rushing TD’s. Both his 100 yard games, and 4 of those TD’s, came against defenseless division rival Dallas. Gibson, having converted from college wide-out, was a rather pedestrian RB as a rookie. Strangely enough, he also didn’t excel as a receiver out of the backfield. J.D. McKissic (also a college wide-out) saw 85 carries and 80 receptions, for 365 and 568 yards respectively, representing nearly 1,000 (954) yards from scrimmage. Peyton Barber is the “big back”. Interesting fact: He’s averaged less per carry, every year, for four straight years. As a rookie he averaged 4.1 per tote. Last year, just 2.7 on 94 carries. He also doesn’t catch passes. Lamar Miller was added to the roster, possibly to challenge Barber for his role. Miller tore his ACL in preseason 2019, and made Chicago’s practice squad in 2020. He saw one game, catching 2 passes for 6 yards. After which he was demoted back to the practice squad. Bryce Love is also on the roster. They got yardage and scores out of this hodge-podge in 2020. There’s no reason it can’t happen again in 2021. (+)

WR: On 134 targets, Terry McLaurin posted 87 catches for 1100 yards in 2020. Not bad numbers in year where 4 different guys were throwing him passes. In three years Cam Sims has yet to impress the staff in Washington. This is likely why they added free agents Curtis Samuels and Adam Humphries. Samuels is a guy that Carolina demoted, then let walk. Two teams have allowed Humphries to just walk . Both are guys who made their name on short area quickness, but seem to have loss their edge. As a result Samuels and Humphries need an awful lot of targets to be productive. Let me put numbers to that. Again, in 2020 McLaurin saw 134 targets, while Cam Sims saw just 48. Steven Sims was next closest with 37 (27 catches, 265 yards). In 2018 Humphries needed 105 targets to see 816 yards and 5 TD’s (both career-highs). In 2020 it took 97 targets to get Samuels to 851 (career-high) and just 3 TD’s. So neither Humphries nor Samuels may have been the smartest choice to improve this group. Even on paper they still look like they have a hole. (-)

TE: Logan Thomas snagged 72 passes for 670 yards and 6 scores in 2020. Not head turning numbers, but he’s more of security blanket than a weapon. He’s also a violent blocker, so keep your head on a swivel.

Back-ups include Marcus Baugh, Temarrick Hemingway. Tightening their bike helmet, Washington also signed a Chilean basketball “star”  (averaging 4.7 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 0.5 assists), turned football player, named Sammis Reyes. The guy is an obvious workout warrior, ticking all the boxes on the Mike Mamula/Tony Mandarich scale. It’s even been reported that he posted a 4.65 time in the 40. But just look at him with a ball in his hands:

He looks like he couldn’t run the 40 in 40! You know, I wonder if he’s ever caught a pass over the middle, or read a blitz. So no. There is no depth here. (-)

OT: Geron Christian started 6 games at LT before his season was cut short. Starting in his stead for the remaining 9 games, was veteran Cornelius Lucas. RT Morgan Moses is the best of this bunch, which isn’t saying much, as this line allowed 50 sacks in 2020, and 1 passer to be put on Injured Reserve. So there’s probably some room for improvement. Which is exactly why the Rrr- Football Team, hasn’t made a move here. At least not yet. (-)

G: Pro Bowler Brandon Scherff was slapped with the franchise tag, for a second straight year. He’s a cornerstone player, and Washington is smart not to let anyone get a crack at him in free agency. They’d be smarter to ink him to a 6 year deal, and effectively lock him down for the remainder of his career though. Wes Martin and Wes Schweitzer are why Washington drafted Saadiq Charles last year. Charles was inactive for 5 weeks, then after playing two downs in Week 6, was promptly placed on season-ending Injured Reserve. So this position is praying for a big bounce back, plus a leap forward, from their second year man. Until then they can keep heading out Wes. (+)

C: Chase Roullier just inked a four year deal to remain in D.C., so they must think more of him than their rivals do. For his part, he’s been durable. Oh, and Adrian Peterson ran for 1,042 yards behind him in 2018! Tyler Larsen comes over from Carolina, to be Roullier’s back-up. Yeah, me neither. (+)

IN A NUTSHELL: Every year Fitzpatrick has a handful of OMG type good games, and OMG type horror shows. Most of the time he’s a competent, mid-level game manager. That will not win you the NFC East. Doesn’t matter though. Washington’s weapons won’t scare anyone anyway. Honestly. How many washed-up Slot receivers does one roster truly need? Their top two RB’s are actually WR’s, running behind an interior line with no true mauler on it. Making their run game

You can’t spell saWFT, without Washington Football Team.

Worse than that, Scott Turner is returning as the OC. So his division rivals will likely have a better handle on his offense, than his new QB. So expect less success from Washington’s offense, than they had last season. (-)

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DEFENSE

DE: Washington fans whenever you mention this position:

Chase Young won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and was selected to the Pro Bowl roster. His 7.5 sacks don’t tell the entire story of his contributions. Things like his leadership, and his energy. His passion, and his pride. Young looks like the real deal. Meanwhile, Montez Sweat quietly racked up 9 sacks, despite playing less than Young. The loss of Ryan Kerrigan means that the meaningful depth right now, is James Smith-Williams, who plays with the same flare and imagination that his parents displayed while naming him. The starters are very good, but this position is a sprained ankle away from the whole defense going off a cliff. (+)

DT: Daron Payne is the big load in the middle who started 16 games, producing 54 tackles and 3 sacks. Which is pretty much the exact stat line he’s delivered for each of his three seasons. Jonathan Allen again delivered over 60 tackles, but is clearly diminishing as a pass rusher after assuming a more traditional interior role, than the one he played for his first two years. Matt Ioannidis tore his bicep in Week 2. He tried to make it work during Week 3, but it wasn’t to be. So he missed the remainder of the season. At 310, Ioannidis will likely be asked to play inside in a 4-3, as he was asked to do in 2020. Prior to that he played end in a 3-4. Due to the injury there is no way to predict what level of Ioannidis will return in 2021. Tim Settle played limited snaps in 2021 and still led the position with 5.0 sacks. If Ioannidis returns to top form, this group is going to be a massive headache for rivals. And even if he doesn’t return to top form, it’s still a formidable mix of power and veteran savvy. (+)

OLB: Cole Holcomb had a nice rookie year playing inside, but his 2020 move outside was a mixed bag at best. Given that he’s got the most in-game experience of any player at this position, Washington needs him to be better in 2021, because they have no choice but to start him. Shaun Dion Hamilton went from being a moderate role player on the 2019 defense, to a Special Teamer who saw spot duty in 2020. Khaleke Hudson is a tweener, who was born for kick coverage duty. Gun to my head, I’d start Hamilton, but there’s probably going to be a rookie manning this spot. Josh Harvey-Clemons opted out last year due to Covid. He previously never defined a role for himself, so to keep his roster spot, he may have to change position. (-)

Jon Bostic destroys Andy Dalton

MLB: Jon Bostic had a career year in 2020. He either tied or set a new record for himself in EVERY statistical category. That looks like a player being as comfortable as a motherfucker in the scheme he’s playing in. David Mayo was brought in to back Bostic up, but don’t be surprised to see Josh Harvey-Clemons here as well. (+)

S: Landon Collins yet again was having a good year playing LB, when he tore his Achilles tendon, ending his 2020 season. Rookie Kamren Curl stepped in, and offered help by actually covering receivers. Given how well he preformed, nobody sane would start Collins over Curl at this point. Right? Right, Washington? Hellooo…? Back deep, Troy Apke and Deshazor Everett, were so lackluster in 2020 that… Ohhhhh. It’s going to be Collins AND Curl isn’t it? Not ideal, but still the best two out of this four. For the record, Apke and Everett have been in D.C. since at least 2018, and each have been ass, in each of those years. There’s experience here, but only one player who’s really good against the pass. (-)

CB: Kendall Fuller’s return to D.C. saw him match his career-high of 4 interceptions, and start two more games (14), than he did in his first stint with the Redsk- (ugh!) Football Team. New addition William Jackson comes over from Cincinnati to hold down the opposite side. Jackson has just 3 interceptions in 59 career games (48 starts), so teams will start the year off targeting him heavily. Depth consists of Jimmy Moreland (10 career starts), and Darryl Roberts formerly of the Lions, with 4 interceptions in 67 career games (31 starts). Avoid Fuller and pick on the other side. Get ready for 17 games of that unless someone surprises us. (-)

IN A NUTSHELL:

Opponents won’t make a very good living trying to run vs this front. However, Washington practically invites teams to throw the ball on them. This team can rush the passer, but can they cover long enough for the rush to get home? Seems like a fairly critical question, given that the current NFL is a passing league. This team has plenty of talent, just not really where they need it. (-)

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SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Dustin Hopkins made a career-low 79.4% (27/34) of his field goal attempts. Most concerning was his 15/21 performance (71.4%) from 40 yards and longer. He also went 30/32 (93.7%) on extra points. His missed factored directly into two losses (NYG, DET). However, given that Washington won the division, this position may be overlooked as an area of need. For a team built like this one is, a reliable toe isn’t a luxury. This toe looks shaky, and they just inked him to a an extension. (-)

P: Tress Way averaged 48 yards per punt, with a 44.1 yard net, helping his unit keep returns to 5.8 yards per crack. The only knock is that on 73 punts, only 23 were downed inside the 20. (+)

IN A NUTSHELL: This isn’t exactly a crackerjack unit, loaded with clutch dynamite. In a salary cap strapped year, Washington’s attitude seems to be: “Meh…We’re dancing with the devil that we know.” (-)

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BOTTOM LINE:

The defense won’t be able to capitalize on it’s great front, because it was sabotaged in the secondary. There are no heroes on special teams. They flat out need to make an offensive splash in the Draft, or the offense will take a step back. This is a last place team in any other division. However, in this division there are three other teams still trying to find their footing. This gives Washington a real chance to repeat as division champs. Possibly even posting a record of 9 – 8.

2020 NFC EAST PRE-DRAFT PREDICTION

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/17
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Preview, Rivals, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

giants redskins.jpg

KEEP in mind, when these predictions come out, no one knows who will be drafted by which team. So this is an assessment of the team as it is staffed by veteran players with track records.

Rookies may contribute heavily to their team, but they don’t usually shake up the NFC East as a division. That being said, there’s a pretty good chance that what you see here, will be how it shakes out for the year.

Now let’s look at 2020:

Strongest Offense: PHILADELPHIA

This Offense won the division last year on spare parts. To imagine that they won’t be more potent at full strength, is naive. Oh, and they still have most of those spare parts under contract. Oh, and then there’s that whole thing about the players not having to learn a new system. Fact is, if the season were to start today (and we are discussing today’s rosters), Philadelphia’s second string would be more ready than their rival starters, who have yet to even do basic installations of their systems.

Weakest Offense: WASHINGTON

This unit has deficiencies everywhere, and they haven’t even decided on who will be their starting QB. That will lead to leadership issues, and a lack of uniformity in how players execute technique in their approach to the new offensive system.

Strongest Defense: PHILADELPHIA

Keep in mind this is mostly a rating of the athletic talent and experience. This rating does not take into account the defensive systems that teams will run. Talentwise, both New York and Washington are on Philadelphia’s heels, and Washington will likely run a better system. This however, is about how things stand today, BEFORE the draft, BEFORE camp, and BEFORE injuries. At this moment, Philadelphia owns the edge in talent, experience, and intel on rivals. Also keep in mind, anything that can improve for the other three teams, are also things which can still improve for Philadelphia.

Weakest Defense: DALLAS

The secondary is a mess. The hole left by an OLB’s injury in Week 11 last year, still has yet to be addressed. A series of desperation moves were made to shore up a defensive line that suffered a bug loss. Worse yet, if the offense sputters, the workload will shift to a defensive unit built for speed, not for the pounding of being on the field for 33 to 35 minutes per game.

Strongest Special Teams: WASHINGTON

Washington has the division’s most reliable kicking game, and the only return unit to be concerned about, at this point. On its own it won’t win any games, but if this unit can get some help, it could turn into a couple of upsets this season.

Weakest Special Teams: PHILADELPHIA / DALLAS

Neither team has a returner to be concerned about, and both allow too many punt return yards. It can be argued who has worse kicking. While Philadelphia’s kicking game is eroding slowly enough to barely notice it, Dallas is holding auditions for anyone who might be reliable. In either case, neither team shows much cultural respect for the hidden yardage game anymore.

Projected Winner: PHILADELPHIA

2.7 New boss

As it stands today, Philadelphia is a 9 win team. New York is a strong 7, with Dallas hovering at 6 (without their QB). Amazingly, Washington may see their win total double from 3 to 6.

Philadelphia did it’s rebuild early, and now gets to watch the rest of the division suffer through one. Despite the holes currently on the team, there is coaching stability, and cultural stability in the locker room. It’s a host of young players who have been battle-tested, working shoulder to shoulder with guys still on the roster. The roster doesn’t hope they can weather adversity, they know they can, because they’ve done it for the last three seasons. Heaven help the NFC East if the Eagles aren’t injury riddled this year

Darkhorse Winner: NEW YORK

Washington has no shot in 2020. Dallas has quite a bit of internal turmoil kicking off right now, and loading up on troubled players, is not the way to overcome internal adversity. Should Philadelphia decide to secede from the NFL, then New York would have the best chance at winning the division. Otherwise, this one is pretty much a wrap for 2020.

CHANGE MY MIND

2020 EAGLES

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/16
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Reviews, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

the big bird

LAST season an injury riddled Philadelphia Eagles team, won the NFC East with an overall record of 9 – 7, and a 5 – 1 division mark. This was immediately followed by a Wild Card playoff loss. While Philadelphia is the only team in the division not to get a brand new head coach, the staff on both sides of the ball underwent dramatic renovations. Division rivals who thinks they know this team, may be in for a massive shock to the system.

Now let’s get a look at what the Pre-Draft 2020 Eagles roster, tells us about the team today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Wentz lasers.jpg

Carson Wentz played all 16 games last year and threw for a career-high 4,039 yards. This he did with an injury depleted receiving group. His mobility was also back on display, as he accounted for 243 rushing yards. The knocks on him are that early in the year he took too many sacks, which led to too many fumbles. By seasons end, those issues seemed to evaporate. If he starts off 2020 at that level, MVP candidacy will be a part of his season.

Given that Wentz started and finished every game in 2019, and given that the 5 starts he missed in 2018 were all due to coaches discretion, the only real games he missed due to being injured, were the ones from 2017. So we can officially deep six the “injury prone” label. Behind him is Nate Sudfeld on a one year deal. Sudfeld isn’t flashy, but when he’s in, the trains still run on time. Given his track record, and familiarity with all things Eagles, it would’ve been in the Eagles best interest to sign him to a longer contract. Kyle Lauletta flamed out in his only year in New York, but the Eagles have a better position staff, and may be able to get something from the lad. If so, they may discover yet another Diamond from Exton. (+)

RB:

card.miles.sanders

Miles Sanders is the guy. This almost definitely will not be a committee position in 2020. Sanders can run the ball, catch the ball, and pass protect. While he is an every down back, he may not be an every situation back. Hard yards up the middle, and heavy workloads don’t seem to favor him. While he was productive when asked to carry the load, it came at a cost. An ankle injury in Week 17, became a knee injury during the playoff loss. It was bad enough for him to need crutches and be asked about surgery. (He didn’t need it.)

Unlike 2019, Sanders won’t split carries for nine weeks. He’ll be in harness from Week One this year. The insurance policies behind Sanders are Boston Scott and Elijah Holyfield. Holyfield is as green as St. Patrick’s Day. Scott had some big moments in 2019, but didn’t demonstrate much in the way of consistency. He had some short TD runs, but he had plenty of carries between the tackles, that went nowhere too. He looks great on Screen passes, but if Sanders goes down, the Eagle are up shit’s creek, because there is no meaningful depth here. (-)

WR:

Alshon and Carson 2017

At the moment this group is no less dangerous than it was last year. Alshon Jeffrey is back to win contested and jump balls in the end zone. Show me the film of the last time he lost one of those contests. DeSean Jackson is back to win foot races to the end zone. Show me the last time he lost one of those. This is the 2020 starting pair for the Eagles, unless they can somehow find a way to upgrade. Greg Ward is likely the new slot receiver. While he’s no burner, he’s a very good route runner with RELIABLE hands, who understands that he needs to uncover quickly to give his QB a place to go with the ball. He’s also proved that he can start on the outside. If he gets the snaps, don’t be surprised to see a 50 catch year from him.

The Eagles also have J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, but so far that doesn’t mean much. Shelton Gibson is also lurking back there, after spending the 2019 regular season on the Browns Practice Squad. There is no secret that the Eagles will spend a high draft pick here, so the landscape WILL change. That said, it’s already dangerous and three players deep, with targets that the triggerman already trusts to get the job done. (+)

TE:

Zach Ertz Dallas Goedert

Zach Ertz 88 catches, 916 yards, 6 TD’s. Dallas Goedert 58 catches, 607 yards, 5TD’s. That’s a combined 144 catches, 1,523 yards, 11 TD’s. There is no more dynamic duo at this position in all of football. Philadelphia boasts a pair of highly reliable targets who also function as capable blockers. And just to rub it in, Josh Perkins is a third stringer who can be split wide, and force secondaries to respect him down the field. (+)

OT:

lane vs watt.jpg

Perennial Pro Pro Bowl RT Lane Johnson is still indisputably one the best in the game. The situation at LT however, depends on who you ask. Some think that second year man Andre Dillard is ready to takeover for the departed Jason Peters, others think he’s a bust in the making. In limited action at LT in 2019, Dillard looked like a rookie in the NFL, who was frequently left on an island. He clearly needs coaching, but it’s far too early to pull the panic lever. In limited action at RT, he was an unmitigated disaster, and had to be sat down. This indicates a player who gets away from his core concepts and fundamentals too easily. That’s fixable, but it’s also the pin in a grenade looking to go BUST!

Depth at this position looks like Matt Pryor who looks far better when moved inside. Jordan Mailata is still on the roster, but his back issues might make 2020 his wrap-up, if he can’t get on the field for the third year in a row. There is a blue chipper here, but this position has far too much to prove to just sign off on it. (-)

G:

RG Brandon Brooks has been voted to the last three Pro Bowls. LG Isaac Seumalo has never been voted to one. That’s not a mistake. Having played his entire career on an Offensive Line that featured 4 Pro Bowl mainstays, it’s not that Seumalo plays on a line that garners no attention. The fact is, he’s an average player at best; or a sub-par player who’s being carried, at worst.

Brooks ended his 2019 season with a dislocated shoulder. It remains to be seen what if any ill-effects will linger as a result. It also remains to be seen if the lingering issues will be all in his head. Brooks already suffers from an anxiety disorder, which flared up in 2019, because he was given a contract extension, that he became worried about living up to. Packing a “comeback” on top of those weekly attacks, which cause him to vomit before every game, may be a tipping point.

Depth at the position looks like Matt Pryor who played solid when filling in for Brooks. Despite all the listed drama, this position has been stable, and advertised as one of the NFL’s best for years now. (+)

C:

Jason Kelce is the best pivot in the division, and it’s not even close. Still, there are rumors that he’s considering retirement. If this is the case, then the Eagles have to begin the transition this year. The Eagles brought in two undrafted rookies in 2019. Keegan Render and Nate Herbig. Based on 2019 preseaon play, Herbig looks like the odds on heir. However, this draft has a couple of guys that could be worth a pick. That’s all in the future though. For now, Kelce is definitely the best in the division and possibly the best in the game. (+)

In a nutshell:

The only question here is whether or not LT Andre Dillard is ready. There are too many weapons here for the QB to be sabotaged by shitty blindside protection. If that area is stabilized, this Offensive unit should finally be able to do many of the things that everyone predicted it would do in 2019. (+)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

2019 brandon graham

Brandon Graham is a productive and technically sound player, vs either the run or the pass. While he gets sacks and piles up hurries, he’s not really a pass rusher to be feared. Derek Barnett’s game was supposed to be winning hand battles to gain access to passers. However, his tendency to flatten the edge instead of setting it, helps opponents salvage too many plays. (This is why down for down, current free agent Vinny Curry was far more effective than Barnett in 2019).

It took a minute for the light to go on for Josh Sweat, but in 2019 it clicked for him. He however, may need to add another 10 pounds, before he can be a starting player at this position, in this division. Daeshon Hall produces when he gets an opportunity, but he’s stuck behind other players contracts right now. (Sorry fella, but that comes with the game, sometimes.)

This position is not as productive as it should be. Also, they just don’t have a scary pass rusher. For that reason, I think a player will be picked on either Day One or early on Day Two of the Draft. Still, the Eagles are productive, and have two back-ups who would be legit NFL starters, with yet two more promising prospects, waiting in the wings. Depth and production are always a great combo. (+)

DT:

2019 Fletcher Cox Daniel Jones

While teams don’t double Fletcher Cox on every play, every time they don’t, he reminds them that it was stupid not to. Be it run or pass, the man wrecks blocking schemes like they were homes. While newly signed former Steeler, Javon Hargrave, made his bones as an “A” gap penetrator, he can also hold the point of attack.

Coming back from a Lisfranc injury, is Malik Jackson. Jackson is more of an interior pass rusher, and thus he has a reputation as being extremely disruptive on the inside. Hassan Ridgeway isn’t really a pass rusher or a run stuffer. He’s a scrapper. He’s not really starter material. He’s not a 40 snap guy. What he is, is great in bursts. When he subs in, the opponent isn’t getting anything in the way of a break.

FIFTH down on the list is 350 pound Anthony Rush. Rush is a space eater, and block absorber. When he’s in the “A” gap, teams have a much harder time doubling Cox. Rush made life a lot easier for Cox in late 2019.

I’ve never seen anything like this at this position. Never. Not on any team. This position isn’t just five players deep, it’s five players who each make each other better, deep. Jackson’s a back-up, who’s been to a Pro Bowl, and started in a Super Bowl. Again, here he’s a back-up! It’s almost silly! There’s no way the season opens with all five of these players on the roster. No way. The NFL and the laws of supply and demand regarding talent, just won’t allow for such a thing. It’s unnatural. It’s flat-out not real. (+)

OLB:

Nate Gerry has trouble with interior linemen, so he was a liability vs the run when the Eagles tried to play him on the inside. Once he was moved outside, he couldn’t stop making plays. More importantly, he started preventing opponents from making plays.

FA addition, Jatavis Brown isn’t suited to the pounding of playing this position in this division. At 221 pounds, if he’s here to be a Nickel/Dime guy, that may work. Asking him for more than that is likely asking for trouble. He’s a career back-up who was pressed into starting 10 games in 2018, but he was promptly returned to the bench in 2019. So odds are that he didn’t impress.

2019 Genard Avery half sack

Genard Avery is more of a pass rusher. Given that the Eagles don’t like to blitz, it remains to be seen if Avery will need to switch positions. At this point Alex Singleton is a kick coverage guy. (-)

MLB:

Duke Riley and T.J. Edwards are the current candidates for this spot. Riley, at 218 pounds is impossible to take seriously as a starting LB on the edge, and even less so in the middle. His role here seems limited to Nickle packages and kickoff coverage. Edwards logged four starts in 2019, both in the middle and on the outside. The Eagles organization seems quietly hellbent on finding a way to get him on the field. (Trivia facts: The Eagles won all four of Edwards starts, and didn’t allow more than 17 points in any of them.) The team could have a future with Edwards in the middle. However, they haven’t made it his spot yet, and they have no depth even if they had done so. That said, this position cannot be graded well at this point. (-)

S:

FS Rodney McLeod make tackles, and plays on the ball, despite being stuck with having to cover deep from sideline to sideline. Jalen Mills moves from corner to SS. He already knows the concepts, the calls and many of the surrounding players, so his learning curve shouldn’t be very steep at all. The issue will be in deciding how to utilize him best. His lack of a second gear hurt him on the boundary, but if the Eagles play him in the box, it will only make that problem seem worse. Lining him up outside of the box, basically takes the team out of Single-high coverage and puts us in a Two Deep look. (Which I would be all for.)

Philadelphia native Will Parks comes in to push Mills for the starting role. The Eagles traded for Marcus Epps in 2019 and he only played 7 games for the Birds. That said, he played more as time went on. The loss of Malcolm Jenkins is a massive blow to the locker room, but the fact is, this position should still perform effectively on the field. Especially given that the position is faster and deeper in experience than it was a year ago. (+)

CB:

The big story here is the addition of former Lion, Darius Slay. If he’s as good as advertised in man coverage, then he will allow the Eagles to play their Cover One/Cover Three scheme, without as much need for help over the top.

2019 sidney jones2

Odds are, the other starting spot will go to Sidney Jones. Everyone seemed to be measuring him for his ‘Bust’ label, when suddenly near the end of 2019, the light seemed to click for him. He’s not out of the woods yet, but at least he looks like he’ll be getting a chance to redeem himself. Jones could be challenged for the spot by Rasul Douglas, and Cre’Von LeBlanc.

Douglas has started 18 games over the last three seasons, but he flat out cannot cover deep speed. He diagnoses, tackles, and has very good ball skills. However, on an every down basis, in the Eagles Cover One/Cover Three scheme, Douglas is just too flammable. Unless (like Jalen Mills) his position is changed, the Eagles will never get the maximum out of him.

LeBlanc is a favorite of the Defensive Coordinator, but injuries and a need for someone who excels in the Nickel, kept LeBlanc off the edge. That may be where former Ram, Nickell Robey-Coleman comes in. Coleman brings a reputation as one the NFL’s best at covering the slot. Avonte Maddox has also started inside and outside, but with two players being pulled in and paid well, and with LeBlanc free to play the outside now, it seems as if the Front Office is already looking past Maddox at this position.

Crevon LeBlanc.jpeg

Setting the scheme aside and just looking at the athletes, this is an experienced, versatile, and deep group of battlers. Of these six players, five have started playoff games. Two have Super Bowl rings, and a third has been to one. This is the best group in the division, and it’s not even close. (+)

In a nutshell:

There is a hole right through the heart of this unit. The second level is ill-equipped to handle a physical 16 game schedule, particularly in this division. As a result the rest of the unit will have to make for that area’s shortcomings, instead of trying to max out the whole unit’s potential. Couple that with a questionable defensive system, and it doesn’t matter how good the athletes are. A strong Draft at LB may salvage this unit, but as of today, it isn’t a strength for this team. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

Cam Johnston has been very consistent from last year to this. His average came down from 48.1 yards to 46.4, and his net came down from 42.7 to 42.3. He had 31 punts returned for 194 yards (6.2) in 2018, and 32 punts returned for 207 (6.4) in 2019. On 10 more punts in 2019, you could argue that it was a lower percentage of his punts returned (45% vs 50%), but the point would be the same.

That high number of returns indicates that he’s outkicking his coverage and allowing returners to think they have a chance to affect the game. On the surface, the stats make it seem like he’s good but not great. In reality he’s giving hope to the opponent, and that is not a strength. (-)

K:

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Jake Elliott as far as points was as accurate as he’s ever been with a career-highs in Field Goal percentage (84.6) ,and Extra Point percentage (94.6). Although his accuracy from 40 to 49 dipped for a second year in a row (92.3 in 2017, 87.5 in 2018, 71.4 in 2019). That’s a 20% slide in two years.

Oh, there’s more!

On his kickoffs, only 64.2% were touchbacks. That saw 27 returned for an average of 23.8 yards a pop, and 1 came back for a touchdown. His kickoffs just aren’t long enough, consistently enough.

On FG attempts of 50 yards or longer, he was just 2 of 4 (50%), putting him at 4 for 9 (44%) over the last two seasons.

Also we were 0 for 2 on Onside Kicks, and his FG fake resulted in him throwing an interception.

He was however, just signed to a five year extension with 10M guaranteed, so bugger me to figure out where his motivation to improve will come from. (-)

RS:

Aside from WR Greg Ward and RB Boston Scott, there really isn’t anyone else for this duty to go to. DeSean Jackson and Miles Sanders are now too valuable to risk in such a fashion, and none of the other Eagles on the roster who have kickoff and/or punt return experience, are likely to make the final roster.

Neither Ward nor Scott have proven to be much more than a placeholder for the positions so far. (-)

In a nutshell:

None of the deficiencies here are genuine deficiencies. What they are, is one no-frills aspect stacked atop another no-frills aspect. Put bluntly, there is nothing special about the Eagles Special Teams. There is nothing here to hang their hats on. The entire premise seems to be “Just don’t lose it for us.” This unit doesn’t seem capable of contributing to a win on it’s own. (-)

 

BOTTOM LINE:

This looks like a team that will be able to score. The question is, will they be able to stop anyone or win close games? Right now, due to nothing more than arrogance, that looks pretty dubious.

shoot_yourself_in_the_foot

It seems yet another Eagles coaching staff, wants to attempt re-inventing the wheel. It may happen, but while the Eagles are experimenting with concepts, their division rivals will be trying to improve at winning football games. Not a good look so far for Philly.

2020 Cowboys

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/15
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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LAST year the Dallas Cowboys finished 8 – 8 overall and 5 – 1 in the division. Their defensive rankings from 2019 are meaningless because their new head coach will of course hire a new defensive coordinator. Offense is another story though. The Cowboys kept the offensive coordinator for last year’s 6th ranked scoring offense, which was 1st in yards per game (431), 2nd in passing (296.9), and 5th in rushing (134.6). So on offense the thinking is that the Cowboys will pick up where they left off.

Let’s get a look at the 2020 Pre-Draft Cowboys roster, to get an idea of who this team is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Assuming Dak Prescott signs a contract and reports to camp, the Cowboys have a reliable, young passer who set career highs in pass attempts (388), completions (596), passing yardage (4,902), yards per pass (8.2), oh and touchdowns too (30). The only problem here? Currently Prescott technically isn’t under contract yet. So he technically can’t count in this rating.

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So let’s talk Cooper Rush! He threw three passes in 2017, and he even completed one of them. For 2 yards. Rush flashes a career passer rating (so far) of 42.4. He is a true rarity, as he’s one of a handful of QB’s with more career attempts (3) than passing yards (2). Rush’s back-up is Clayton Thorson, a 2019 fifth round draft pick of the Philadelphia Eagles. Thorson didn’t last the entire preseason before he was cut loose. (-)

RB:

Even in a “down year”, Ezekiel Elliott posted 1,357 rushing yards and 12 scores. All of this on “only” 301 carries. That marks his second 300 carry season in a row, and his fourth in three years. His workload (or carrying around his heavy contract) is clearly taking a toll on him. He now checks himself out of games, for breathers more often than in prior years.

Also, he only had 4 rushes of longer than 20 yards. (For perspective, Philadelphia Eagles rookie Miles Sanders had 5 of those, on roughly half the carries.) Elliott’s longest run of the season, was just 33 yards. Despite his heavy workload (or maybe because of it), his rushing yards per game dropped for the third straight year in a row. (108.7 in 2016, 98.3 in 2017, 95.6 in 2018, 84.8 in 2019.)

Tony “Zeke Who?” Pollard put up a pretty good rookie campaign of 455 on 86 carries. Not bad given that there weren’t many carries left, once the team finished feeding their Zeke. So the Cowboys have some talent and depth here. (+)

WR:

Amari Cooper was heavily rumored to be joining the Philadelphia Eagles in 2020, but he inked a long-term deal to keep him in Dallas. However, what he did do in 2019, was put up career highs in yards (1,189), yards per catch (15.1) and touchdowns (8).

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Michael Gallup has really come into his own posting 1,107 yards and 6 scores, in his second year. That practically doubled all of his rookie stats. On this roster, beyond Gallup, no other player at this position caught more than 5 balls in 2019. Depth is an issue. (+)

TE:

Missing out on the TE of their dreams in 2018, because the Philadelphia Eagles drafted him a pick before they did, the Cowboys had to bring in current Las Vegas Raider Jason Witten, to help mentor Blake Jarwin in 2019. Jarwin is a big, athletic target. If he’s given a lot more opportunities, he has a chance to be really, really average. This upcoming season will be his fourth in a Cowboys uniform. If he really had chops to be a starter, Witten would have never been brought back. That said, as surrounded as he is with weapons, he should be able to at least duplicate the 63 catches for 529 yards that Witten posted in 2019. If he can’t, this entire offense will be in serious trouble. (-)

OT:

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LT Tyron Smith for 13 games per year, is one of the best in the sport. I say 13 games because every year, for the last 4 years, he plays exactly 13 games. La’El Collins is a good RT, but can we be honest? He’s not as good on the end, as he was inside. Still, it’s a very talented group. As far as back-up experience, Brandon Knight started in the Week 7 loss to the Jets… (+)

OG:

Zack Martin is one of the best in the game. He’s a metronome of consistency. Whether it’s pass or run. Down near the goal line? Score a touchdown, 1-2-3. On the other side is Connor Williams. Williams missed a few games in 2019, and was ably subbed by Xavier S’ua-Filo and Joe Looney. This group is a luxury to have with a pair of back-ups who would start on half of the NFL’s rosters. (+)

C:

Travis Frederick is football’s second best Travis, and second best pivot. (Both men above him are surnamed Kelce, BTW.) Kudos to him for coming back from Guillain-Barre syndrome to start all 16 games in 2019. Frederick even played well enough to earn a Pro Bowl nod, where he would back-up the Kelce from the Philadelphia Eagles.

Wait! Never mind. Frederick retired. Leaving Joe Looney as the Cowboys best option at the moment. Also there is no depth. So uh… I’m just gonna put this right here. (-)

In a nutshell:

Depending on who comes back, and who actually reports to camp, this offense has all the ingredients it needs. However, they are likely to stumble out of the gate, without last year’s starting QB. They are also likely to stumble if last year’s QB signs, but misses any of training camp. This year’s offense will be last year’s offense, but with a new head coach, there will be different nuances to it. It will hit it’s stride, but that may take 4 or 5 weeks. (+)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

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Demarcus Lawrence has trended down (14.5 sacks, then 10.5, then 5.0) for the second straight year since signing his 105M dollar contract. Now that the NFL is willing to overlook Randy Gregory’s desire to put marijuana ahead of football, maybe he can have a career now.

Hey! Speaking of introducing an unstable element to the roster, Aldon Smith was recently added. If we’re being accurate and honest, his first two years were monster, but the three that followed showed steep decline. Now he’s now 30 years old, 35 pounds over his 265 pound playing weight, and coming back after a 4 year banishment.

There are three other guys on the roster, but they’re just guys. This position is loaded with reputations based on yesterday’s talent, but it lacks a starting pair, any depth, or truly dedicated players. (-)

DT:

Antuan Woods is a stop-gap player, so the Cowboys continue their search for an interior pass rusher. Thus, Dallas raided Carolina’s dust bin, and signed Gerald McCoy, and Dontari Poe. The two had 9 sacks between them last year, but they also comprised the starting interior that allowed 143 rushing yards per game (29th) as well.

Last year’s hope at this position was second round draft reach pick Trysten Hill. However, Hill’s lack of give a damn put him in the doghouse of the last head coach. This new regime already seems to be looking past him. Which is fine since Tyrone Crawford is there to hold down a spot in the rotation. There’s enough veteran savvy to provide a solid rotation here. (+)

OLB:

It took NINE years, but Sean Lee finally played 16 games in a season. He makes solid tackles and good reads, but he’s an absolute liability in outside coverage. His eyes are still good, but he just doesn’t have the athleticism to stay with opponents consistently.

Leighton Vander Esch is perhaps a tad over-hyped, but he’s still a really good young player. The neck injury that ended his 2019 season was upgraded from “Stinger”, to “ Herniated disk”, all the way up to a surgery in January 2020. Jerry Jones was asked about it during the Scouting Combine (which feels like years ago now). The grapevine says LVE will be kept away from contact until Training Camp opens. At least.

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Luke Gifford and Joe Thomas are the back-ups here. Both had a chance to step up when LVE went down, and they did so well that the Cowboys signed a guy off of his couch. And started him Week 17. Until LVE gets back, this position is an open wound. (-)

MLB:

Jaylon Smith piled up 142 tackles last year, and even defensed 9 passes. He did it while starting all 16 games. His tackles have improved every year since he’s been in the NFL. He’s a hard guy not to root for. Behind him is Justin March-Lillard, but Sean Lee is a better fit. (This position is the one that also fits Lee best.) (+)

S:

New signee and former Bear, HaHa Clinton-Dix, is hardly worth worrying about in pass defense anymore. While his 2019 season looks good at first glance, most of it was done in a Week 3 game vs Washington. In fact, 3 of his last 5 career interceptions are against Washington. In fact, in 2018 (as a Packer), he intercepted them in Week 3, and was traded to them after Week 8. His remaining 9 weeks in the NFC East were not good ones for him.

Xavier Woods was a steal as a 6th round pick, but he seems to have hit a definite ceiling.

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This may be the wrong Xavier Woods. Let me check on that.

His play is competent and steady, but not game-changing. The talent level is has-been, not up-and-coming. They have no experienced depth and don’t match-up well with the talent they will see across from them in this division. (-)

CB:

In 36 career starts Chidobe Awuzie has 3 career interceptions. No one is afraid to throw to his side. Jourdan Lewis is a Nickel corner. However, the team has already started trying to talk their fan base into him, as an every down outside starter. Looks small, and plays small vs receivers who play big. His transition will not go well. Like the other players at this position, Anthony Brown gets a number of deflections, but doesn’t catch many.

In fact, in the last 4 years, these three players combined for 143 games, with 81 starts, and a grand total, I said TOTAL, of 11 interceptions. Free Agent Maurice Canady was added from the Jets, and he gives the Cowboys some experienced depth. Nobody fears this group. (-)

In a nutshell:

This unit is where 2019’s 8-8 record came from. This defense doesn’t get to the QB, or to the ball like a top unit should. Most of that can be traced not to the coaches, but to the talent that gets put on the field. This unit matches up very poorly for trying to defend against the top of this division. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

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Chris Jones is coming off of a career worst Average (41.6) and career worst Net (37.0). This marks the third straight year where he averaged under 45 yards per boot, which had been his norm from 2013 through 2016. Also, his net dropped again, for the third straight year. While only 18 of his 50 punts (36.0%) were returned, opponents averaged a respectable 8.5 per return, hinting that there may not be enough hang-time on shorter and shorter punts. (This is a man who once hit the Jumbotron.) Jones has more or less always been middle of the road, but his clearly diminishing leg strength could make him a defensive liability this year. (-)

K:

Dallas signed former Ram, Greg Zuerlein, to a three year deal this offseason. What Zuerlein has going for him is that for the last 3 years, his touchback percentage on kickoffs hasn’t dipped below 76.05%. So return men don’t see many opportunities.

Scoring however… That’s a different matter. In 2019 he had a Field Goal accuracy mark of 72.7%. He attempted FGs in 14 games, and had a miss in 9 of them, including a record of 1 – 2 in games decided by 3 or fewer points. (If you’re a Cowboys fan, just imagine Brett Maher with less range.)

Competing with Zuerlein is Kai Forbath. Forbath kicked for the Cowboys for three games in 2019, hitting all 10 FG attempts and all 10 extra points. The knock on Forbath is that even with the new rules, returners frequently opt to return his kickoffs instead of fair catching them. During his stints with New England and Jacksonville, he didn’t even handle that duty.

The third player at this position, (yeah, third) is inexperienced Tristan Vizcaino. Why he’s on the roster is anybody’s guess. But if you have three players at this position, you don’t have a player at this position. (-)

RS:

WR Ced Wilson is the teams best option at PR. Last year he returned 2 for 13 yards. He also had 3 KR for 64 yards, with the longest being 22. RB Tony Pollard had 14KR for 245 yards, but his long of 30, and average of 17.5, suggest that he stay on the sidelines. (-)

In a nutshell:

This part of a football team is responsible for setting the table, and establishing a sense of momentum. It seems however, that the Cowboys never got that memo. The result is that the Cowboys will have to run the race, while dragging 1/3 of their team.

BOTTOM LINE:

This is what happens when a staff understands football talent, but doesn’t understand football nuances. Then again, we’re talking about the American southwest aren’t we? It’s not a region that’s historically known for getting either nuance or subtle context.

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Until the team understands that it’s no longer 1984, they will be forced further and further into irrelevance, while they and their fans listen to the Judds “Grandpa” to help the days ease on by.

2020 Giants

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/14
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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LAST year the New York (g)iants finished 4 – 12 overall, and 2 – 4 in the division. Their 2019 offensive and defensive rankings are irrelevant, because under rookie head coach Joe Judge, there will be plenty of change. An early wise move by Judge, was hiring former Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett to be his offensive coordinator. Aside from his offensive expertise, Garrett also brings current knowledge of the division, as well as intimate knowledge of his former roster. This could give New York a chance to hit the ground running.

Let’s get a look at what the 2020 Pre-Draft giants roster, tells us about who New York is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

Daniel Jones was anything but consistent in his rookie year, but given that it was also the swan song for Eli Manning, it seems like a pass has to be given here for that inconsistency. As far as his 23 turnovers, that can’t be looked off. His 18 fumbles also can’t be ignored. Those numbers are even more alarming when you realize that he missed 3 games.

On the plus side, he posted 279 rushing yards last year. Manning never did that. He never had a season of even half that. Jones’s mobility allows the coaching staff a chance to get creative and revamp what the NFL has come to know, as giants football.

Behind Jones is the serviceable Colt McCoy. McCoy plays with the confidence of a starter, and this is the most loaded team he’s ever been on. The giants could do worse for a back-up. Still, at this stage Jones has yet to demonstrate that the game isn’t too big for him. His lapses are pivotal, too frequent, and frequently in pivotal moments. (-)

RB:

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Saquon Barkley ran for 1,003 rushing yards, but the way he produced them, had many people raising an eyebrow. Many games featured him being held under wraps, until a big play would boost his numbers, and make it seem like he’d been good all game long.

In reality, Barkley’s performances were inconsistent and unreliable during games. He has the talent, but he has to find a way to matter on more downs. Wayne Gallman had one big game against Washington during a three game stretch without Barkley. During the same stretch, rookie John Hilliman got 30 handoffs, lost two fumbles, never scored, and rushed for just 91 yards. Former Titan Dion Lewis was added, for some reason.

If anything happens to Barkley, this team will remove their helmets, go to the sideline, and sit quietly until the season ends. Still, they do have one of the most dynamic players in the league. If the new staff can get consistency out of that talent, this offense might make some noise. (+)

WR:

Last year, I soundly mocked the combination of Sterling Sheppard and Golden Tate as this team’s starters last year, and was right on the money. With the departure of Odell Beckham last year, Sheppard said that he looked forward to leading. He immediately developed into a poor man’s Cole Beasley, with Tate playing Nightwing to his Robin.

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Enter fifth round pick Darius Slayton. He gave the offense a little more size, and lot more speed on the perimeter. He also made plays that Sheppard and Tate don’t have the kind of athleticism to make. Corey Coleman returns from injury on a one year deal, but he hasn’t played any significant ball since 2017. The position has some talent and veteran stability. While that may not scare anyone, it allows for development. (+)

TE:

With a third year under his belt now, it’s possible to discuss trends and patterns regarding Evan Engram. In his rookie year he posted 722 receiving yards. In his second year he posted 577. In his third year, 497. Games played? 15, 11, and 8 respectively. At this rate he’ll play 6 games and catch for 386 yards in 2020. He needs to pick his game up.

During the 2019 season, the team picked up Kaden Smith, formerly of the 49ers. Smith started once Evans went down for the year, but he displayed no traits that make you think that New York doesn’t need help here. Also formerly of the 49ers, is Levine Toilolo. His 6’8” frame would suggest red zone menace, but his 97 catches and 8 TD’s in 7 years, tell the tale of a blocker. (-)

OT:

So LT Nate Solder is back, but he was a massive disappointment in 2019. Former Cowboy Cam Fleming will likely get the nod at RT. Behind these two are a pair of benchwarmers, who are as green as clover. (-)

G:

Will Hernandez wasn’t as good in 2019 as he was in 2018. Some blame him, some blame the guy to his left. I partly blame the coaches, and largely blame the guy to his immediate right.

Supposedly Hernandez is missing alignment reads, but why does that fall to a LG? Is every man on the o-line responsible for his own read? Who calls the protections? Who calls the slides? I can’t think of the last LG to do that. If there’s a communication issue, it doesn’t rest with the LG.

At RG is Kevin Zeitler, who wasn’t the rampaging failure that I predicted him to be last year. That’s not to say that he played like a Pro Bowler, but at least New York can say they plugged a leak. Nick Gates could step in at RG, if the rumor of Zeitler sliding outside, happens to come true. (+)

C:

Any time an o-line has communication issues up front, look no further than the guy in the middle. In this case that would be John Halapio.

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From all appearances the game is faster than Halapio can process mentally. That results in an out of sync o-line. Spencer Pulley is the reserve, but he’s also the guy they demoted, for the problem child they stuck with last year. (-)

In a nutshell:

This unit has critical issues with both communication, and ball security. The QB is no longer a rookie so his reads should be better. How much better remains to be seen. Whether o-line communication can get better without swapping out the C, is a major question. This offense can make some noise, but they have to stop waiting for it to fall into their laps, and take control of the situation. As the expression goes: Hope is not a strategy. (-)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

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(NOTE: The giants are listing nearly all of their linemen as “defensive linemen”. It’s a cheap ploy to create uncertainty among the shakier coaching staffs. Everyone knows that the giants are moving away from a pure 3-4 to more of hybrid 4-3/5-2 front. It’s just Three Card Monte. Now that we’ve sorted that, let’s look at who (as of today) would start at this position.)

Leonard Williams joined the team via trade, at midseason 2019. Honestly, there isn’t enough tape on him in a Giants jersey, to forecast whether or not he’ll be better than he was as a Jet. Reserve B.J. Hill was essentially demoted for Williams, and is a decent player. Oshane Ximines is a second year man likely in for a larger role. (+)

DT:

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2019 rookie, Dexter Lawrence came in and made an immediate splash, with 22 tackles and 2.5 sacks in his first eight games, while posting 4 tackles or more three times. Those may not seem like big numbers, but for a 342 pound rookie, essentially playing interior lineman, they were a damned fine start to a career. Then he hit a wall, and posted just 16 tackles for the remainder of the year, and no more 4 stop games. So this one has promise.

Having a huge body beside him to eat some double teams, allowed Dalvin Tomlinson to get more “iso” work inside. The result was his best year as a pro, posting 49 stops and 3.5 sacks. There is no reason not to expect more of the same in 2020. Austin Johnson was brought over from Tennessee. He’s not great, but teamed with R.J. Macintosh, the giants have size and experienced depth, which is never bad to have in reserve. (+)

OLB:

David Mayo is nothing special. He’s not big, or fast, or a good pass rusher, or a competent cover man. His biggest talent so far seems to be continuing to draw an NFL paycheck. Rookie Ryan Connelly got off to a start, before a blown ACL in week 4 shelved him for 2019. Teams will test the sharpness of his ability to change direction in 2020, so don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. Both Mayo and Connelly played inside in 2019’s 3-4 scheme, but right now it seems like the Giants will try a 4-3 hybrid look in 2020. Lorenzo Carter is suited to this position in a 3-4, but he’ll likely have to move to end, if the team does in fact switch systems. Kyler Fackrell was brought in off of Green Bay’s bench, on the strength of what seems like a fluke 2018 season. Aside from (possibly) Connelly everyone else here is just a pass rusher. (-)

MLB:

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Blake Martinez was plucked from Green Bay and has all the tools to be a star. Was that direct enough? (+)

S:

Jabrill Peppers. He’s the only player at this position on the roster to start an NFL game. The next most experienced player is 31 year old, nine year veteran Nate Ebner. Nine years. Zero starts. This has to be where that first draft pick lands. (-)

CB:

The big man on the block is free agent signee, James Bradberry. Bradberry is a big body who looks good on paper, but never looks quite as good in a game. Deandre Baker didn’t have an awesome rookie year, but he was a first round pick, so he started 15 games and will start in 2020. Julian Love started the final 5 games, and wasn’t much worse than anyone else at this position. In his defense, he was just a rookie taken in the fourth round. Sam Beal has yet to justify the Supplemental third round pick the team spent on him in 2018. Grant Haley, Corey Ballentine… New York has made a concerted effort to get young at this position. Young is good. Experienced is better. (-)

In a nutshell:

The Giants are what happens when a team leans too heavy on the idea that “pass rush wins games”. Pass rush helps, but if the rest of the defense can’t cover, then there is no pass rush. They are going to need a Connelly to be surprisingly good and add more talent in their secondary to have any shot at being a decent unit in 2020. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

P:

While attempting the fewest punts of his career Riley Dixon had his best year so far in terms of Average (46.1), Net Average (42.3), lowest number of his punts returned (24), lowest number of return yards (136), and yards per return (5.6). He did however, have two blocked. Still, this guy’s foot will set a defense up well, and thus he gives his team a shot to win. (+)

K:

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This team needs to replace Aldrick Rosas. Honestly, I have no idea how he’s still on the roster this long after the season.

His 2019 season saw him connect on 12 of 17 Field Goal attempts (70.6%). Missing 4 out of 5 over 40 yards. However, he’d have only been the difference in 1 of the teams 12 losses. He also missed 4 extra points in 2019. In 2018 his FG kicking was 32/33 (97.0%), and in 2017 he was 18/25 (72.0%). That’s just too all over the map. A team can’t live that way.

His kickoffs continue to improve every year. In 2019, on 71 kickoffs, just 19 were returned (26.7%) for 18.5 yards per attempt, and yet again no touchdowns. Still, he needs replacing. (-)

RS:

The good news is that they seem to have a number of viable PR options. The bad news, is that none of them has ever taken a punt back for that tasty treat. So the position has babysitters, but no daddy. (-)

In a nutshell:

Aside from the punting, this unit needs serious help. Given that games are frequently won and lost on a toe; given that good starting field position for opponents often follows misses; and given that poor kicking leads coaches to go for it, in 4th down situations that they would rather not, this unit as a whole can’t be given a thumbs up. (-)

BOTTOM LINE:

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The Giants are a rebuild. They started their rebuild in 2017 when they hired GM Dave Gettleman, and he hired head Coach Pat Shurmur.

No one expects miracles in the first year, so fans mostly wrote 2018 off. Then Gettleman re-started the rebuild with a fire sale of Shurmur’s weapons in 2018. So of course no one expected much in 2019.

However, after 2019, the rebuild was re-re-started by ripping out Shurmur, and replacing him with this rookie head coach. So of course this means no expectations for 2020 either. I can just picture Gettleman telling everyone to “Trust the Process.” This team will suck until they fire the GM. As for 2020, call it 6 wins, 8 if they get off to a fast start. 

2020 Redskins

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/04/13
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 6 Comments

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LAST year the Washington Redskins finished 3 – 13 overall, and 0 – 6 in the division. There’s no need to discuss their rankings because they hired a new head coach, in Ron Rivera. Rivera, already a defensive strategist, quickly hired Jack Del Rio to be his defensive coordinator, so you know what this team will hang it’s hat on. That being said coaches don’t wear helmets.

Let’s get a look at what the 2020 Pre-Draft Redskins roster, tells us about who Washington is today.

OFFENSE:

QB:

The starting job is up in the air. The new head coach would like to see Dwayne Haskins compete with undrafted, former Panther, Kyle Allen. Alex Smith is still on the roster, but there is no news on his return from the broken leg he suffered in 2018.

While Haskins improved statistically throughout the 2019 season, there was never a point where he showed he has the ability to be more than a mid-tier passer. In five of seven starts, he failed to crack 200 yards passing. In three of those games, he failed to even reach 150. Add to that, the fact that Haskins isn’t dangerous with his feet. There isn’t a single special aspect to his physical skill-set, or his leadership traits.

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As for Kyle Allen taking over the starting job, it’s a fantasy. Disregard that noise. Allen started 2019 on a tear. Then, once teams got tape on him, the carriage turned back into a pumpkin, the horses turned back into mice, and yadda yadda, ad infinitum. In his 12 starts he was 5 – 7 , but lost every game where he attempted more than 34 passes. He’s nothing special. (Which is probably why he went undrafted).

Not that Haskins is a better option, but the Redskins still owe him 11M guaranteed, and they did spend a top 10 pick on him. Scuttlebutt has it that the Redskins are taking a QB with the second overall pick in the upcoming Draft. If that happens, then you can draw a chalk outline around the 2020 Redskins, before the sun rises on Day Two of the Draft. (-)

RB:

Adrian Peterson just got another year added to his contract. And why not? The 35 year old led the team in rushing, yet again in 2019. However, too often his yardage doesn’t come in key situations, when his team needs it. In six of the fifteen games he played in last season, he averaged under 3.0 yards per carry. That’s not a typo. Under. His longest run of 32 yards, didn’t happen until Week 17.

Derrius Guice has missed 27 of a possible 32 games, since being drafted in 2018. He missed his entire rookie season with a blown ACL in his left knee, and most of 2019 with MCL issues in his right knee. On the bright side, his left knee was fine in 2019. Also the MCL sprain that ended his season, was probably more of a team decision to save wear and tear, once it was clear that they weren’t going anywhere.

Moving on from Wendell Smallwood, they signed former Buccaneer Peyton Barber. Barber is what you get if you gave a slightly less explosive Wendell Smallwood, a lot more carries. (No really. Look both players up and compare them. And if you’re a Redskins fan, try not to cry.)

In any case, the Redskins are in trouble here. They have a situation of an aging body, and a damaged body, both backed up by a nobody. I sense an early Draft pick here (-)

WR:

Terry McLaurin is a hot name. Deep threat, big plays, 58 catches, 919 yards, (15.8) and 7 TD’s in his rookie year. This guy is the truth, right? Hold up.

terry mclaurin.jpg

Of his three 100 yard games, two were against the Eagles, and one was against the Dolphins. (Two teams with shaky secondaries.) In the remaining 11 games that he played in, he never even reached 90 yards. In fact, in those remaining games, he totaled a mere 564 yards, with just 3 scores and an average of 12.8. So let’s power down that hype machine.

Steven Sims closed out 2019 by catching 4 touchdowns in the last three games. Thing is, he’s more of a slot/gadget guy, than starting material. Trey Quinn, started off “meh” and then cooled dramatically, before completely disappearing after Week 12. Kelvin Harmon won’t scare anyone, but he has good size and will make catches.

Cody Latimer is also on the roster, but in 6 years, he’s never seen more than 24 offensive touches in a season. (-)

TE:

Vernon Davis retired. Jordan Reed was released. Jeremy Sprinkle is a blocker, not a receiver. Hale Hentges made a splash during the last two weeks of the season, posting 6 catches for 90 yards and a TD.

These circumstances prompted the Redskins to sign Richard Rodgers and Logan Thomas. It is doubtful either man will see opening day on the roster. (-)

OT:

Trent Williams is still on the roster, but he’s working hard to get off of it. Moses Morgan is a rock at RT. That’s the good news. The bad news is, the current answer at LT is likely Geron Christian. Or it’s recently signed, former Bears fill-in, Cornelius Lucas. (-)

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Moses Morgan and Brandon Scherff are one of the more formidable right sides in football.

G:

Washington handed RG Brandon Scherff a blank check to stay, and so he did. Ereck Flowers had a career year in 2019, which should come as no surprise since I told you that he would, last year. He translated that into a fat contract on another team. That led to the Redskins signing Wes Schweitzer. Schweitzer was a primary starter in Atlanta for two years before he played 15 games with just 7 starts in 2019. He started the final 5, but he was a back-up in 8 of the first 10. He’s that good. Don’t look for depth. There is no depth. (-)

C:

Chase Roullier is the starter, and Ross Pierschbacher will assume the number two spot. While nothing flashy, Roullier is steady. A team could do worse. (+)

In a nutshell:

They have half of an offensive line. They’re hoping that their ancient and injury prone backfield, can produce. They need to decide on a QB, neither of whom has anyone significant to throw to. This is an offense with no weapons, and no triggermen who could use those weapons in the first place. Worse yet, there is no cover for a triggerman to work behind. This offense is a shit storm. (-)

 

DEFENSE:

DE:

Redskin DES.jpg

Jonathan Allen and Matthew Ioannidis are the best pair in the division. They’re big, fast, strong, every down players, who make a huge impact at their position despite playing in a 3-4 scheme. The team is strong here, as long as they don’t have to play their bench. Behind Allen and Ioannidis, it’s gossamer thin. Former Eagle Trayvon Hester, and (native Philadelphian) Tim Settle play the swing-end spot, but neither really has the feet, bend, or suddeness of the starters. Still, with as good as it is at the top, this position is pretty strong. (+)

DT:

Daron Payne starts at NT and is a force in the middle. Unlike many at his position, he doesn’t just eat blockers, he can beat blockers. Tim Settle also fills in here, and is decent as reserves go. Trayvon Hester also has experience inside, and can play here in a pinch. (+)

OLB:

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Ryan Kerrigan is coming off of the worst year of his career. Just 5.5 sacks and finished the year on IR. The future is apparently Montez Sweat. In his rookie year he posted 7 sacks, but proved just as one-dimensional as Kerrigan, showing that he’s a pass rusher only. Ryan Anderson stepped in for Kerrigan and looked good in his three starts to finish the year. You have to wonder whether or not Reuben Foster is still in the plans, and what his knee (2019 ACL, MCL) looks like. Four guys at this position, and not one of them can cover. That’s called a liability. Limited starters, backed up by players with the same limitation? Not good (-)

ILB:

Both Jon Bostic and Cole Holcomb logged 105 tackles and a sack in 2019, but weren’t much vs the pass. That’s probably why Thomas Davis was signed. Davis can play both the run and the pass, but he’s 36 and thrived playing the outside. This will be a position change. So the math looks like, old dog + new team + new position + new system = hopefully he’ll be his old self. No chance in hell. Still the team has some parts that they might be able to mix and match, so it can’t be counted totally out. (+)

S:

Landon Collins logged 117 tackles and a sack. Not bad numbers for a second level defender, but Collins plays in the secondary. After posting just four deflections and no picks, for a second straight year, for a second team, the nagging questions about his (lack of) ability to cover receivers, won’t be easily put to bed. Here is a picture of him picking off a pass last year.

blank sheet

The team added D.C. native, Sean Davis, formerly of the Steelers. He missed all but one game of the 2019 season with a shoulder injury, but appears to have pretty good ball skills. So far however, his real claim to fame, is being sued by a Chick-fil-A employee, for causing the kid’s classmates to bully him. The depth here is negligible. (-)

CB:

2019 Greg Wards first TD

After an Eagles Practice Squader put Josh Norman on a poster, the Redskins cried “No Mas!” Seriously. Almost as soon as the season was over, the team’s executives started throwing all of Norman’s shit out of a second story window. And he was the best they had!

By late March their best at the position were Fabian Moreau, and returning career back-up, Kendall Fuller. Put another way, if this position were a McDonald’s menu, these two players would be a bag of apple slices, and a small cup of ice. Which is why they totally overspent for ex-Eagle, Ronald Darby.

roasted.jpeg

Given that the Redskins (like the Eagles) play Single-high coverage, Darby will be asked to play a lot of man coverage. On the upside, Darby is very fast, very athletic, and does a fair job of contesting jump balls. On the downside, when he’s not injured, he’s either stumbling in coverage, missing tackles, or giving up touchdowns. And sometimes all three at once! (-)

In a nutshell:

The 2019 Redskins didn’t look bad vs the pass statistically, because teams opted for easy rushing yards. That said, this unit looks too much like it did at this point in 2019. They have strength up front, but the edges and back of this unit, will spend a lot of time on the wrong end of highlights this year. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS:

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P:

Tress Way averaged 49.6 yards per punt, this past season. He blasted a career long 79 yarder in a Week 13 win over Carolina. He also punted for a career-high 500 yards, on 10 punts with no blocks, in a Week 5 loss to New England.

Unfortunately, 39 of his 79 punts (49.3%) were returned for 354 yards or 9.0 yards per return. In fact, his 19 fair catches were his lowest since 2016, as opponents overwhelmingly chose to return the ball at a Return:Fair Catch ratio of 36:19.

This indicates that Way is still grossly out-kicking his coverage, and giving opponents a chance to make a momentum swinging play. Hidden yardage wins and loses games. While Way may be showing off a big leg, his placements are hurting the defense and very likely, costing his team wins. (-)

K:

Dustin Hopkins is one of those players who’s stable enough to keep, but always makes a team wonder what else is out there. Last season saw him post an 83% accuracy mark, with one attempt blocked. On the other hand, of his 68 kickoffs, only 17 (25%) were returned. (+)

RS:

WR Steven Sims is a KR guy to worry about. Posting 32 attempts, 819 yards (25.6), a 91 yard long, 3 returns of 40 yards or more, and a one brought back for a score. Not bad for a rookie, who also contributed five touchdowns on offense, posting both a 65 yard catch, and a 65 yard run. The addition of WR Cody Latimer, gives the Redskins depth in a spot that rarely has such a thing.

Sims was given an opportunity to PR, but that remains a trouble spot for the team. Still, he’s a back-up player who can change a game as a kick returner. That’s more than some teams in this division have. (+)

In a nutshell:

There is talent and stability here. The question is, can it be conducted to perform as a beautiful symphony, or will it continue to play like a middle school recital of “Three Blind Mice”?

BOTTOM LINE:

This team is a rebuild, but everyone knew that already. If they attempt to roll out a 3-4 concept with this roster, they’re going to spend a lot of time either having to play shootouts, or just being blown out on a regular basis. As this team is currently constructed, it has the look of a 4 win team.

OUR 2019 – 2020 EAGLES

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/09/03
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Swoop Flag2

NOW the games count. No more talk of managing risk. No more holding players out. Unless a team is rebuilding, finishing the year as champs, is every team’s mission. There is only one champion at the end of the year, and the 2019 – 2020 Eagles aim to claim that title. PERIOD.

So are we good enough to win it all? The simple, honest answer is: We should be.

Offensively we have the weapons to score with anyone, and I mean anyone. Rams, Chiefs, Wilt Chamberlain, whoever. We have enough skill-player talent, to stress any defense, along with enough depth to step up in case of injury. Or to keep applying the pressure when a Starter needs a breather.

2019 Carson's Weapons

The starting Offensive Line is very good, with a couple of reserves who could be starters today. Our starting QB is a problem for opponents when he’s on the field. Should he miss time however, his back-ups don’t look like they have any magic up their sleeves. That’s just as well. Realistically there are starting QB’s in the NFL who don’t have that quality. It’s lunacy to expect that from a back-up.

Our Defense is designed to slow teams down, not shut them down. It’s a bend-but-don’t-break, Wide 9 concept. It works fine, as long as our Offense can put up points early. If we’re behind, or the game is hotly contested, it’s not the most reliable system. However, as I said, we can score with anyone. Though I may not be a fan of the system, the coaching staff understands who we are, and after all it did win a Super Bowl. (While allowing a senior citizen to set the all-time passing yardage record against us.)

In my Pre-Draft Preview, I picked us to go 10 – 6 and win the NFC East. After the Draft, (I didn’t write it, but) I was thinking 13 – 3 or 14 – 2. However, after our poor use of the preseason, my official expectation holds at 10 – 6. More would be better! However, it’s hard to see more than 10 right now.

The Eagles have the weapons, but we’re liable to have “in situation” and “real game” rust, for not playing more starters during this preseason. Look, whenever a player holds out, coaches, the media, and we fans alike, all paraphrase the same line: “Nothing can simulate actual football.”

We Eagles fans can’t say that about a rival team’s holdout RB, and not apply that same logic to our own QB. That’s just being deliberately hypocritical. It’s one thing to back into hypocrisy by accident. We all do that, from time to time. It’s quite another to flagrantly cannonball into it, with eyes wide open.

romantic-cannonball.jpg

Our first four games (Washington, Atlanta, Detroit, Green Bay) feature three teams (all but GB), who played their starters at least a little, in real game scenarios. We didn’t do that. If we come out rusty, or too often off-schedule, or committing endless penalties, don’t expect our opponents to let up, and go easy on us. Three of those four games (all but Washington) are games we could actually lose.

And God forbid we should see a Week One, home loss to the Redskins. Our coaching staff would have more than egg on their faces.

watermelon catapult

My point is, while we can compete with anyone talent-wise, we may be a little slow coming out of the gate. Provided that the coaching staff is right about not needing the preseason, we are plenty good enough to be champions again.

Washington will tell us a lot, in about 6 days.

2019 NFC EAST PRE-DRAFT PREDICTION

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/04/19
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Rivals, Special Teams, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

division shield.jpg

Keep in mind, when these predictions come out, no one knows who will be drafted by which team.

This is an assessment of the team as it is staffed by veteran players with track records.

Rookies don’t usually shake up the NFC East division, so there’s a pretty good chance that what you see here, will be how it shakes out for the year.

Strongest Offense: PHILADELPHIA

While there are issues with the Offensive Line, every team except Washington has issues there. While the Cowboys also have dangerous weapons, they have no proven coaches on that side of the ball. Philadelphia has players, coaches and a system that has yielded two straight playoff runs. This one was easy.

Weakest Offense: WASHINGTON

Lacking a QB, or credible receivers makes the Redskins a team a one-dimensional, running team. Oh yeah, and they have a 33 year old RB as the tip of their spear, and no reason not to load the box.

Strongest Defense: DALLAS

Like Philadelphia, they have a strong front seven. Dallas however, lets their DB’s challenge receivers, which occasionally helps out the pass rush.

Weakest Defense: WASHINGTON

There are holes all over this unit, and they will likely get shelled this year vs deep threats. Their 3-4 system allows too many easy passes to the Flat, and they don’t have the speed to cover deep.

Strongest Special Teams: NEW YORK

Give them credit for turning a liability into an asset. Better yet, give them credit for committing to winning the hidden yardage battle.

Weakest Special Teams: DALLAS

Ignoring depth is how you end up with weakness here.

Projected Winner: PHILADELPHIA

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Last year a very healthy Dallas went 10 – 6, won the division, and lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. Last year an injury ravaged Philadelphia went 9 – 7, and also lost in the divisional round of the playoffs. Philadelphia has shown that injuries won’t derail the team from the postseason. Dallas has shown no such resilience. That doesn’t mean it will be easy. The division will be a war in 2019.

Darkhorse Winner: DALLAS

The Redskins and giants are too poorly run to seriously be mentioned here.

2019 – EAGLES

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/04/18
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Roster, Special Teams, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

wentz returns.jpg

LAST year… the Eagles were 4 – 2 in the division and 9 – 7 overall, to finish 2nd in the NFC East. An aggressive injury bug decimated the Secondary, causing the team to start 13 different players over the course of the season. Despite a 30th ranked pass defense, the team managed to finish 12th in points allowed (21.8 per game). Injuries at RB contributed to a 28th ranked rushing attack, for a team that finished 18th in scoring (22.9 per game). A second year in a row of losing the starting QB didn’t help matters, although the team still finished 7th in passing yards.

That was last year. Keeping in mind that though the Draft will change some of this, the following is a report on how the team looks today, prior to the NFL Draft….

OFFENSE

QB:

Carson Wentz hasn’t lasted 16 games in either of the last two seasons. Right now the “Injury Prone” label is following him around, waiting to get his autograph. Two or more missed games (due to injury) in 2019, and Carson will be scribbling his signature. It’ll only be fair.

When healthy (or even semi-healthy) Wentz is a bonafide killer. Whether throwing a touchdown with two blown ligaments in his knee, or completing 70% of his passes with a broken bone in his back, there is no denying that the guy can ball. Even during the worst of times. His yards per game, yards per pass, and QBR has improved every year. Regardless of injury. Sometimes in the face of injury.

The back-up is Nate Sudfeld. The former Redskin draft pick, has been a solid and smart pick-up for Philadelphia. He’s doesn’t make stupid mistakes, protects the ball and makes a defense’s job difficult. There are teams who can’t say that about their starters. Luis Perez reads well and has a solid arm, but has to learn to step into his throws. (+)

RB:

Jordan Howard is a downhill runner who can pass protect, and pick up short yardage. That means he’s a four down back, not a three down back. He’s been working on improving his pass catching, as his catch percentage was just 58% in 2016. It rose to 71.9% in 2017, and then to 76.9% in 2018. (Those numbers are on par with former teammate Tarik Cohen’s 2017 and 2018 catch rates of 74.6% and 78.0% respectively. The Bear’s excuse for playing Howard less, was total bullshit.)

Corey Clement 2018.jpeg

Corey Clement was hampered by an early hamstring injury, before tearing his ACL in December. The undrafted Clement flashes feature-back size, solid running, and top-tier catching ability (80% career rate). Word is, he will be the pass catcher out of the backfield, replacing Darren Sproles, if Sproles doesn’t come back in 2019.

Wendell Smallwood (87 – 364 – 4.2 – 3) was given six starts last year, and was never a threat to break one. (His longest run of the season was 15 yards. His career long is 26.) Josh Adams (120 – 511 – 4.3 – 3) started five games, and led the team in rushing yards. Adams (a native Philadelphian), has all the tools physically, but lacks any aggression. Like Smallwood, he’ll get the yards that are blocked for him, but (to this point) is nothing special.

The combined numbers (207 – 875 – 4.22 – 6) aren’t bad, but they’re misleading. They’re the result of the Eagles system carrying players, not the other way around. Better athletes would have put up better numbers with the same opportunities. Still, while Smallwood and Adams are by no means starting caliber, they are a luxury, even enviable, as 3rd and 4th stringers. (+)

WR:

Alshon Jeffery is a monster when called upon. The problem is, that his number isn’t called often enough. In fact, in 6 of 13 games last season, he failed to record even 50 yards, and his touchdowns dropped from 9 in 2017, to 6 in 2018. In 2018 Nelson Agholor established a new career-high in receptions (64), but saw his touchdown production go from 8 to 4.

Jeffery rises above.jpg

The King of Deep Threats, DeSean Jackson, was brought back to Philly in a trade, providing the Eagles with the kind of speed that was the catalyst for their 2017 Super Bowl run. Jackson is coming off of a 700+ yard year, where he led the NFL with an 18.9 yard per catch average. So even at 32, he still has the wheels to take the top off of defenses, open up the run game, and provide others room to roam underneath.

There is also Mack Hollins, a 6’4” sprinter who spent last year on I.R. He has already shown highlight ability in games that count. If he can stay healthy, he is all upside. Charles D. Johnson is also on the list. While Johnson is well-traveled (to say the least), he’s 6’2”, 217, has 4.39 speed, and has started 17 NFL games. The Eagles plucked him from the defunct American Alliance of Football after he posted 45 – 687 – 15.2 – 5, largely against former NFL players. That should be plenty good for a 4th or 5th spot. (+)

TE:

Zach Ertz is one of the best in the game, but there’s plenty of room for improvement. Last season Ertz set the NFL’s all-time record, for catches in a season (116) at this position. He was very productive (116 – 1163 – 10.0 – 8) partly due to volume. He didn’t however, provide a lot of bang for the buck. In 116 receptions, he only had 8 scoring plays, and zero catches of 35 yards or more. In 2017 he had 8 scores on 42 fewer passes and two plays of 40+. Either he needs to become more of game-breaker, or he needs to see fewer targets.

Dallas Goedert 2018.jpg

Dallas Goedert had a rookie season that was eerily similar to Ertz’s. The guy was nothing but dependable, and turned out to be a better blocker than advertised. He’s also more physical after the catch than Ertz is. When he gets a better understanding of spacing in the NFL, he’s going to produce a lot of broken tackle highlights, and likely become too expensive to keep. But he’s under contract until 2021, so expect him to play here until 2020 at the very least. (+)

OL:

C Jason Kelce, who graded out as the best at his position in 2018. But what about the guys on either side of him?

RG Brandon Brooks is still rehabbing his ACL, the timetable on him isn’t clear yet. When he comes back, his explosiveness won’t come back immediately. Lane Johnson is one of the best, if not the best RT, in the NFL. He frequently faces down top pass rushers, but doesn’t get nearly the fanfare that he deserves, because he plays on the wrong end of the line.

LG now belongs solely to Isaac Seumalo. He’s serviceable. He knows the system and the assignments. However, “the tape don’t lie”. By no means can he be mistaken for great, or for a battler in the trenches. LT Jason Peters reworked his contract to come back for 2019. Peters had some moments when he still looked like a premiere OT, but too often in 2018 he looked ordinary. And few times he looked worse than ordinary.

Waiting in the wings are guys like OT Jordan Mailata and OT Matt Pryor. Mailata is a former rugby player trying to make the jump to NFL football. Matt Pryor is a marginal OT, who might be a Pro Bowl caliber G if the Eagles kick him inside. That move would be both wise and similar to what they did with college OT’s turned pro OG’s, Shawn Andrews and Todd Herremans.

Swing T Halapoulivaati Vaitai is the top back-up, but if the team trusted him, they wouldn’t still be trying to manufacture answers at OT. This was the 28th ranked rushing attack and they had 40 sacks allowed in 2018. These are not good markers. (-)

In a nutshell:

The injury bug that hit the Eagles as hard as it did in 2018, wouldn’t have been as devastating if the shelves had been better stocked. Depth should enable a team to keep doing what they do. If it doesn’t, it’s not depth.

For example, Wendell Smallwood, couldn’t fill the role of RB Jay Ajayi, in any regard. Thus Smallwood wasn’t depth, just a body, and the results spoke for themselves when he played. The same can be said at OT right now, and it’s why when WR Mike Wallace went down, the Eagles offense (for weeks) went with him.

Offense

That said, this team has a ton of weapons and has started to address it’s depth issue everywhere except the Offensive Line. (Thus far.) Barring a third straight year of an injury bug, the 2019 edition of the Offense should perform better than the 2018 edition, even if the O-Line is largely the same. (+)

DEFENSE

DE:

While most pass rushers need to get sacks to get new deals at 31, Brandon Graham managed it as the King of Hurries. Derek Barnett is returning from a shoulder injury that cost him 10 games last season. He looked very good before he got hurt, but if Graham is going to get hurries, then Barnett needs to emerge as the closer and get sacks.

The reserves here could start on many teams. Returning to the fold is Vinny Curry. He was a massive part of the 2017 run, as he held the edge vs the run and made it easier for players on his hip to exploit gaps, and win one-on-ones. Chris Long is still on the roster, but contemplating retirement. Despite not starting at all, he had 6.5 sacks last year, his best since 2013. (+)

DT/NT:

fletcher cox up matt ryans night.jpg

Fletcher Cox is an absolute beast. He’s coming off of a 10.5 sack season which is now his best as a pro. He chews up double-teams and punishes teams for trying to put a single man on him. Next to him will be Malik Jackson. Jackson is disruptive vs the pass, but how he’ll look vs the run, playing in this Wide 9 system, is a real question that no one seems to be asking.

Treyvon Hester won the Eagles a playoff game by getting a finger on, thus changing the trajectory, of the Double-Doink Field Goal at Chicago. During the rest of last year he and Bruce Hector were the tail end of a deep rotation, which included ends stealing downs inside. (+)

OLB:

Nigel Bradham

Nigel Bradham does it all. Covers, rushes the passer, plays the run effectively. He’s a solid run-and-chase ‘backer, who’s still on the field for the Nickel package. After spending the first half of 2018 trying to make the jump from Special Teamer to Starter, Kamu Grugier-Hill seemed to figure it out. There’s been mention of him playing more in 2019 and maybe even assuming some duties inside.

The only knock on this position is that it’s poorly stocked, at just two players. Due to the Eagles playing as much Nickel as they do, they don’t prioritize having many true players at this position, opting instead for hybrid/tweeners, like KGH used to be. (+)

M/ILB:

backups.jpg

Last season tweener Nate Gerry got two starts and it was a mixed bag. He moves well, but is too light in the loafers to take on linemen at the point of attack. He may be better suited to the outside. L.J. Fort was brought in but he’s a career back-up.

Paul Worrilow was expected to contribute last year, but a torn ACL on the first practice of OTA’s, snuffed that out. He last saw football relevance in 2015, and if he doesn’t make a strong comeback in 2019, he won’t see it again. This is not a strong position for this team. (-)

S:

Consummate leader SS Malcolm Jenkins yet again left his stamp on a season, being the only Week One Starter to survive a rampant injury bug, that tore through the Eagles 2018 Secondary. He posted 97 tackles, the second highest of his career. FS Rodney McLeod returns from injury after missing 13 games in 2018 with a torn MCL. This is a Pro Bowl level pairing if McLeod is ready for Week One.

tre.jpg

FS Tre Sullivan played strong during the second half of 2018 and into the playoffs. He was critical on a number of downs during the win at Chicago. Due to so many players on the roster being able to provide downs at SS/hybrid ‘backer, Andrew Sendejo has too much strong competition to have a real shot to make the roster. (+)

CB:

The upside of a vicious injury bug is that, it causes many players to gain experience and coaches to learn early on, just who can and can’t play. The Eagles are literally six players deep at this position. Five of whom can say that they’ve played well in at least one start last year.

Starting at the bottom is Sidney Jones who can’t yet claim a great start, but has the tools to be a Starter and possibly a very good one. Next up is Cre’von LeBlanc. He’s the guy who picked off Drew Brees on the opening play of a playoff game last year. Avonte Maddox was the rookie drafted to play another position, but got pressed into starting nine games, including seven (five regular season, and both playoff) at this position. Rasul Douglas picked up seven regular and both playoff starts, and not only played the pass well, but started to quickly diagnose and blow up screen passes, before they could even unfold.

And now the Starters! Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills. Mills played eight games and was not having a great year when he got hurt. It wasn’t awful, but he’d set a standard in 2017, that he wasn’t living up to. Darby deflected 12 balls in just nine starts before he got hurt. This team is ridiculously deep at this position. (+)

DEFENSE

In a nutshell:

Despite an injury bug last year, this team was the 12th hardest team to score against in the NFL. The 2019 season will see them fully re-loaded, and rich with new experience and confidence, up and down the roster. (+)

SPECIAL TEAMS

P:

Cameron Johnston had an uneven rookie year. His net average was over 40 (42.7), but 31 of his 61 punts (50.8%) were returned for 194 yards. That’s not a lot of yardage, but that’s too many times his kicks left a returner thinking that he had a chance. (-)

K:

Jake Elliott hit 26/31 (83.6%) for the second year in a row. He was less clutch (2/5) from 50+, but was no longer shaky from 30-39 (10/11). His kickoffs were much better, as only 24 of his 82 kickoffs left the end zone, which helps out the Defense immensely. (+)

RS:

While as a team the Eagles gave better than they got, still there was no one who reached 500, or even 400 kick return yards. (-)

In a nutshell:

This unit lacks the juice it once had. Some of that can be laid at the feet of rule changes, but it’s up to the staff to adapt to not get plowed under by the rules. So far that hasn’t happened. (-)

Bottom Line:

Even decimated by injuries, this was a 9 win team in 2018. Hard to imagine them finishing worse with more weapons this year.

Sean-McVay-Shocked-Face-Rams-Memes

2018 NFC EAST PRE-DRAFT PREDICTION

Posted by The BEAST on 2018/04/13
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Special Teams, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

division shield.jpg

Keep in mind, when these predictions come out, no one knows who will be drafted by which team.

This is an assessment of the team as it is staffed by veteran players with track records.

Rookies don’t usually shake up the NFC East division (glaring at you Dallas!), so there’s a pretty good chance that what you see here, will be how it shakes out for the year.

(I know, I know. The font looks weird. I’ve spent the last hour fighting with the formatting for some reason, and decided to just release the damned thing.)

Strongest Offense: PHILADELPHIA

This isn’t even in question. The NFL’s #2 offense added depth, but didn’t bother signing a single new starter. There were simply no holes to fix. Just some light re-stocking to do as far as back-ups. No other team in the division can claim that. Eagles win this category in a walk.

Weakest Offense: NEW YORK

Aside from QB, everything on the offensive side of the ball is either in question, or undergoing a re-build. They have no run game. They don’t know if their top WR will hold-out, and if he does, for how long. The left side of the line is manned entirely by new players, and they’re all learning a new system to boot.

Strongest Defense:  PHILADELPHIA

The league’s most dominant defensive line lost two key players, and then upgraded itself. They added depth, and competition where they were thin at linebacker. They added players to allow them to now play physical, and not just fast. They prioritized a minor weakness, because there were no major ones to fix.

Weakest Defense: NEW YORK

Five of their eleven starters are just guys. One draft won’t save them, and no real moves have been made to transform the nucleus of the defensive culture. On top of which, possibly their best player on this side of the ball, said that the broken arm he suffered last year, may need a second surgical procedure to re-plate the break.

Strongest Special Teams: DALLAS

The only team in the division with a KR/PR game that’s worth a damn. They have some issues with Field Goal accuracy, but that seems like something that they can get under control pretty quickly.

Weakest Special Teams: NEW YORK

They are currently in the process of replacing everything, because last year everything was legitimately awful. Not just bad, awful. (Go back and read the report, or go to their website and look at what they did.) That of course is because they don’t seem to prioritize this unit, and so they may be here next year. Again.

Projected NFC East Winner: PHILADELPHIA

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My pick due to personal bias? That would cheapen the entire point of me working this hard (for weeks) on these articles. Easy pick because they won the Super Bowl? That would be pretty stupid, given the real phenomena of Super Bowl hangover.

Philadelphia is the pick because despite no real weaknesses, they improved the team on both sides of the ball. Even scarier (and this is something NO ONE else is talking about or even mentioning), they accomplished everything they did last year, with a rash of key injuries.

Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles weren’t nearly at their best in 2017. What happens if they don’t get bitten as hard by the injury bug this year? What happens if they get to operate close to capacity? And the scariest part of all of it? They’re ramping everything up openly, but somehow it’s still low-key. You have to look close to even notice it. But once you do notice it…

The Suzette Charles Award: DALLAS

If for some reason the Eagles don’t win the East, only Dallas has enough talent to make the race for the division seem interesting. They don’t stand an actual shot in Hell, but if someone besides Philadelphia does it, it’ll be Dallas.