MARQUISE GOODWIN. SNEAKY GOOD.

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/28
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Offense, Players, Reviews, Roster, stats, trade. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Marquise Goodwin 49er

WHILE most of the talk is on the pair of Jalens that the Eagles drafted, WR Marquise Goodwin was the sneaky good add of the offseaon. How could adding him be sneaky when every time the media mentions our addition at that position, they mention the trade brought Goodwin here? How could it be sneaky, if people are talking about it??

Sneaky is not about some punch that our rivals don’t see coming. It’s about the power of the punch that everyone seems to be underestimating.

Goodwin has played 7 years so far. He’s never posted a 1,000 yard season. Never caught more than 4 scores in a year. He owns a career catch rate of exactly 50.0%. Over the last 3 years since he got to San Francisco, he’s started fewer games, seen dramatically fewer targets and caught for dramatically fewer yards, with every returning year.

hmmm...

The point is, the 5’9”, 180 pound receiver, though extremely fast, is viewed as a known commodity already. He’s seen as a flame-out. A one-trick pony who languished for 4 years in Buffalo, and then was slowly phased out of the offense in San Fran.

His stats tell that story. His tape however, tells another. He is a bit of a one-trick pony, but when relegated to role-player, it’s one hell of a trick. I don’t usually use highlight video, because it doesn’t tell you who a man is, down in and down out. It doesn’t show nuances. But Goodwin isn’t here for nuances. We didn’t bring him in to be poison. We brought him in to be a .45 slug.

Check the tape. It’s 6 minutes so wait until you have time. Trust me. It’s worth it. Don’t let me talk you into him. Let his tape sell you on why he’s here.

Did you see how often he had to stop and turn around for the ball? Did you how it works out when he doesn’t have to? Did you see that “Toe Drag Swag”? Now consider that most of this was with QB’s C.J. Beathard, Nick Mullens and Brian Hoyer throwing to him. QB Jimmy Garoppolo targeted Goodwin just 21 times (12 catches) in 2019.

Now Goodwin has QB Carson Wentz throwing to him. Wentz has better arm strength, accuracy and ball placement skills than any QB that Goodwin has ever played with. And unlike Garoppolo, Wentz doesn’t throw passes with his eyes closed.

Goodwin is in the best position to succeed that he’s ever been in as a professional. Despite being role-player, he’s now free to practice the trade that he’s mastered. The one where he takes the top off of defense and opens up the field behind him. And unlike in the past where he was just a 50/50 threat, now he’s in a system that makes him a bonafide weapon.

Alshon. DeSean. Jalen. Zach. Dallas. Greg. And Marquise.

Loading revolver Dark Tower

Our Offense is loaded and the QB is ready to fire. Sneaky good add indeed. 

IS CARSON WENTZ ELITE?

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/26
Posted in: Conversations, NFL, Offense, Players, Reviews, Roster, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

wentz fireworks

EAGLES QB Carson Wentz frequently plays and produces at an elite level. He has his flaws: He has a history of taking too many sacks, instead of getting rid of the ball quickly. He doesn’t run for enough cheap yardage. He leans too much on the TE position. In fairness, he seemed get past much of this by the end of 2019. It’ll be interesting to see how he opens 2020.

Even with his flaws, Carson’s young resume still boasts a constellation of stellar marks:

* He rarely throws interceptions, having never thrown more than 7 in a season, since his rookie season when he threw 14.

* His red zone stats look like something out of a Madden video game. In 55 games he’s thrown 72 touchdown vs just 2 interceptions in the red zone.

* He’s won the division twice out the four years that he’s been a pro. His first division win was iced even before he played the game in which he was lost for the season. By that point, he was an MVP candidate, and he had his team playing for home-field advantage in a year when his efforts would help win Philadelphia’s first Super Bowl.

* He won his second division crown throwing to a group of players (WR Greg Ward, WR Deontay Burnett, WR Robert Davis, RB Boston Scott, and TE Joshua Perkins) all of whom started the season as Practice Squaders. Burnett and Davis weren’t even on Philadelphia’s PS.

Carson Wentz prepares to fire

The fact is, Carson is a monster. Anytime someone wants to take a shot at him, they never attack his play. They attack the three regular season and three playoff games he missed in 2017. They attack the two first games of 2018 where Carson wanted to play, but the coaching staff held him out until the team doctor (since fired) cleared him. They attack the last 5 games of 2018 where again, Carson wanted to play (through stress fractures in his back), but was shut down by the coaching staff, on the advice of the (since fired) medical staff.

The question however was, is Carson Wentz elite? Is he to be mentioned in the Brady, Rodgers, Wilson, Brees, Mahomes crowd? Is he in that upper echelon of current NFL QB’s? The short answer is: No. He isn’t.

wentz v TB 2016 rookie preseason

Currently, Carson is 0 – 1 in the playoffs. We Eagles fans can spin that 2019 playoff loss to Seattle any way we like, but the facts are, Carson started the game and the Eagles lost it. Period. Until Carson gets that first playoff win under his belt, he’s going to be the Buddy Ryan of QB’s: Great in the regular season, but the world’s greatest tease in the playoffs.

Carson’s arm strength, accuracy, ability to read defense, and ability to make plays that make other players gasp, are all top-notch. There is no doubt that he is an elite talent, but there is a difference between being a “talent”, and being a guy who delivers. To become an elite QB, to become a guy who delivers, Carson has to get this team to an NFC Championship game.

Otherwise he’s just Dak Prescott.

Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott

NEXT COWBOYS QB: NATE SUDFELD

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/22
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Crazy Talk, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Roster. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Nate Sudfeld W17 vs Dallas

REMEMBER during the 2020 Draft, Eagles GM Howie Roseman said that he wanted the Eagles to be a “QB factory”. Well the first product to roll off the line may be QB Nate Sudfeld. Regrettably the Eagles only have Sudfeld under contract for 2020, so we won’t get anything for him, but the Dallas Cowboys seem like the most likely 2021 landing spot for him.

Currently Dallas is embroiled in a fruitless standoff with free agent QB Dak Prescott. The Cowboys slapped a 31M$ franchise tag on him, as a counter to his unconfirmed request of over 40M$ per year. The two sides are so far apart, that unless one side caves completely, you can just about bet that Prescott won’t sign the tag, and has already played his last down as a Cowboy.

Writing out a check.

I’m guessing it tops out at about 33 million?

At this rate, this time next year will see Prescott in another jersey, and the Cowboys will be in search of a new franchise QB. Unless they tank in 2020, they likely won’t have a shot at one in the 2021 Draft. So their search might take years. Unless they hit upon another QB like Tony Romo (undrafted free agent), or Prescott (4th rounder).  Right?

Wrong.

Dak-romo-1

Problem with bargain basement QB’s is that they tend to yield bargain basement playoff success. Romo and Prescott have a combined 3 – 6 playoff record. Neither ever made it past the Divisional round while they were a Cowboy. QUICK! Where was Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman selected? Oh that’s right! He was a #1 overall pick in 1989. He also won three Super Bowls.

So don’t expect much from the Cowboys trying to take a shortcut. Bargain basement effort, yields bargain basement returns. Top-shelf is on the top shelf for a reason. Reaching for anything else…is just settling. And unless 3 – 6 is your style, settling ain’t winning. 

Next year the Cowboys will need a QB, and the guy they’re trying to short-change, will have an easier time finding job, than the Cowboys will of finding a new QB. That will leave the Cowboys with options like what’s left of Cam Newton or Phillip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett (not a bad option), Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston, or Nate Sudfeld. Folks, those are the highlights of the 2021 QB free agent market.

Slim Pickens

But Nate Sudfeld? Why Nate Sudfeld and not those other guys?

If the Cowboys are going to start looking for a franchise QB, they can only go one of two routes: A) Hand the keys to a rookie and roll the dice, or B) Develop a QB, to give him a bonafide chance to succeed. Picking door #1 could yield any result. Door #2 however, is a process. That’s where they would need Nate, specifically.

shadenfreude2

To develop a QB, a team has to do it from a point of stability. So they first need to start out with a QB who they can rely on if the new guy is a dud. So they’d need youth. Not raw youth, because then their older free agents won’t stick around to lose games, thus creating holes that will cost more draft picks. He also can’t be so bad that fans will scream for the young guy, well before he’s ready.

They’ll also need the QB to be relatively inexpensive. This is because getting some of those older FA’s to stay, will mean overpaying them. A young QB needs stability around him. Constant change has wasted plenty of promising QB talent. Right, RG3?

The final ingredient, is a guy that fans will let a team move on from, once that young gun is ready for the job. So while a guy like Brissett may look appealing from the get-go, you don’t want him accidentally growing on your fan base.

USATSI_13545201-e1571795919722-1024x758

Nate Sudfeld was almost cooked up in a lab to be the Cowboys 2021 starter. Not a heavyweight, but not a lightweight. He’s been well-coached, isn’t too expensive, not an injury risk, has prototypical build, strong enough arm, comes from a winning culture, and might bring a wealth of intel about the enemy. Comb that list up there, and you’ll see that no one even comes close.

So why is an Eagles fan so giddy over the thought of Nate going there? Because the Cowboys will almost certainly not opt for developing a QB. Even if they do, the process takes a couple of years. That means barring a miracle after 2020, a division rival is out of the running for a minimum of two years. Longer if they get their gamble wrong.

Oh by the way. Keep in mind that ALL OF THIS is balanced against the ticking of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones’s biological clock. So they will feel obligated to rush all of this. And people in a big rush, always do stupid things. Sometimes VERY stupid, costly things. 

Damn. If only we’d signed Nate to a two year deal. 

WHAT ABOUT GREG WARD?

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/18
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), Offense, Players, Roster, stats. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

2019 Greg Ward

BEFORE we go nuts talking about how fast the Eagles have gotten at the WR position, can we talk about how consistent the Eagles are, in regards to how they motivate as coaches? Given how WR Greg Ward stepped up last year, it seems almost a slap in the face that so many say that he may not even have a roster spot when the Eagles next play meaningful game.

Ward served three stints on the Practice Squad, before he finally was given a chance to play in a real NFL game. He played in seven games, starting the final three. In those starts he caught 17 of 21 targets for a catch rate of 80.9%, for 175 yards, as well as chalking CB Josh Norman in his home:

card.WR greg.ward

Overall in those seven games, Ward posted 28 grabs, for 254 yards and that score. Not killer stats, but given that he was essentially tossed into a meat-grinder, where he became the #1 wide receiver by default, Ward responded beautifully.

Hey, look, more speed is great. And unlike other years, not only do we have up-front speed, but we also have speed in reserve. That said, how do the Eagles send the message that stepping up matters, if they leave Ward on the upcoming cutting-room floor?

The answer is: They can’t. Especially if WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside gets to stay on the roster. 

In a universe that makes sense, the Eagles would keep 6 WR’s instead of our customary 5. Those 6 should be: Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson, Jalen Reagor, Greg Ward, Marquis Goodwin, and Whiteside. The Eagles however, will likely keep just 5, which could make that last spot a toss-up between Ward and Whiteside.

Outside of Jeffery, the Eagles don’t have another big receiver besides Whiteside, so that could be his edge. On the other hand, if the Eagles want a better route runner who uncovers quickly, and gives his QB a place to go with the football, then Ward is the no-brainer, hands-down, pound-the-table choice.

Greg Ward dallas

Odds are that Jeffery will start the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list, so rookie Jalen Reagor will start opposite Djax. When Jeffery gets back, Reagor may end up sliding into the Slot. Until that happens, the Slot will likely be a question mark.

With Goodwin being speed insurance against an injury, don’t expect the Eagles to feature him too much. So in a six receiver group, the Slot role would be in play. In a five receiver group (in that universe that makes sense), it should belong to Ward for at least a few weeks.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve written a couple of articles about Ward. With a little bit of imagination Article 1, Article 2, he could be a reason for opposing coaching staffs to lose plenty of sleep. I just hope that the Eagles coaching staff doesn’t end up being the ones who get caught snoring.

THE OTHER TWO TEAMS

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/16
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

giants redskins

GETTING caught up in the Dallas Cowboys contract saga, we’ve all but stopped talking about the Redskins and the giants. While both of those teams were bottom feeders in 2019, one of them could see themselves buoyed by the sinking of the Cowboys in 2020. The question is: Which team will rise?

Early indicators say that the giants are going to be the bottom team, but that only looks that way on the surface. A deeper look says, the giants and Redskins may be more closely matched than people may realize. People are quick to knock the giants, but step back and don’t let the trees block your view of the forest. Let’s get to breaking this down.

vince lombardi

Knock: The giants have a first year head coach.

Rebuttal: This is true, but who is Joe Judge? What is he likely to do on 3rd and 3? Either on offense or defense! How does he intend to deploy RB Saquon Barkley? How much rope will his assistant coaches get? This gives Judge not “the” but “an” element of surprise, if he can assemble even a half-decent team.

On the other hand, Redskins coach Ron Rivera has a 9 year track record. People know him already. They know his tendencies, his preferences. With a bad team in need of rebuild, what do you think he’s going to lean on? He’s going to lean on what he knows. He’s going to revert to familiar patterns. Out of sheer necessity, he will be more predictable than Judge will be.

Knock: The giants will run Jason Garrett’s system, The word is that the Cowboys will already know what’s coming and how to decode it, twice a year.

Rebuttal: Question. Which Jason Garrett system? The one where he was an up-and-coming OC and new HC? Or the one that featured Cowboys owner Jerry Jones coming down to the sideline to meddle? Because something tells me that those things will be quite different.

Also, when have the Cowboys ever had a player like Saquon Barkley, play in Garrett’s system? TE Evan Engram offers athleticism that Raider’s TE Jason Witten never could. The giants will not be pounding ball inside like the Cowboys did with RB’s Ezekiel Elliott, DeMarco Murray or Marion Barber.

Knock: The giants don’t have a decent offensive line.

Rebuttal:

monkey puppet side eye borderless

Moving on…

What concerns me most is that when the Eagles, Cowboys or Redskins get discussed, people talk about both sides of the ball. When the giants get discussed, people only discuss the offense. Clearly everyone is sleeping on their defense, and the rate for being surprised by what you didn’t see coming, is 100%.

The giants front seven is going to be better than anyone realizes, even though their secondary will still be trash. (Especially after losing CB Deandre Baker.) That being said, this article isn’t about who will win the East. It’s about who’s gonna be the bitch that the other three teams keep chained up in the basement. The default, knee jerk answer is New York, but again, you may want to take a closer look at that assumption. Right Redskins?

kia-participant

THE  LINEBACKER PROBLEM

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/12
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), Players, Rants, Reviews, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

byron and seth upend emmitt

LINEBACKER is one of two positions where the Eagles have an extremely spotty Draft history. If you go back to 1975 (the year I was born), there have have only been nine LB’s drafted by, and panning out, as a four year starter for the Eagles: Reggie Wilkes 1978, Jerry Robinson 1979, Anthony Griggs 1982, Seth Joyner 1986, Byron Evans 1987, William Thomas 1991, Jeremiah Trotter 1998, Mychal Kendricks 2012, Jordan Hicks 2015.

Let me say that again. In 45 years, and after spending 52 draft picks on the LB position, the Eagles have had just NINE of them pan out. Since Jeff Lurie bought the team in 1994, the numbers are just 3 out of 27. Keep in mind that 1994 was 26 years ago. So we’ve drafted just three successful LB’s, in the last quarter century.

Which brings us to our current situation.

Many media types are wondering if the Eagles did enough in the 2020 Draft to shore up our holes at the MLB and OLB position. Let me disabuse you of the notion that this is a question. No. The Eagles have not done enough to patch the holes at LB.

card.LB nate.gerry

DC Jim Schwartz has given OLB Nate Gerry a few starts at MLB, and every time yields disastrous results. Gerry playing MIKE gives us sideline to sideline hustle, and better than average fluidity in coverage because he played Safety in college. Due to his size, in the NFL he was either going to be a fast LB, or a slow S. The Eagles opted for fast LB, and as long as Gerry stays on the outside, he’s an absolute asset and a playmaker. But he lacks the sand in his pants to play inside, or to start vs a run heavy offense, that has a good blocking TE.

Right now OLB Genard Avery is sitting in limbo. As an edge defender, his speed and power adds juice to our pass rush. He also has a history of playing ILB, and does a good job of not staying blocked when facing offensive linemen. Since opposing blocking schemes already are going to struggle with the Eagles DT’s, if Avery could make the move to MLB, our interior could become a virtual No Man’s Land. That however, is speculation on my part. To date there is no word of Avery making a move inside. 

OLB Jatavis Brown was added via Free Agency. In 2018, injuries forced the Chargers to start him in 10 of the 15 games he played. He made such an impact that he started just 1 of 13 in 2019. At 220 pounds, he’s a big S, but an undersized LB. In the limited video I can find of him, he needs help to finish many tackles. In coverage he’s no ballhawk, with zero interceptions in 4 years. He’s got speed, but what’s the point of speed, if you don’t make impact plays? I hope he makes me eat my words.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are high on Second year MLB T.J. Edwards, despite him having what keeps being referred to as “athletic limitations”. While he may not be a great individual athlete, he might be a great team concept football player. It’s worth noting that the Eagles are 4 – 0 when he starts, despite playing a combined 11 snaps in those games. (Perhaps he’s a human rabbit’s foot?) Also in those four games, our Defense which gave up a season average of 22.1 points per game, gave up 13, 14, 17 and 9 points respectively. He made no splash plays in the preseason, regular season or postseason, despite playing in all 21 of those games.

MLB Duke Riley is a 218 pound Special Teamer who saw just 28 defensive snaps in 2019. (This is compared to 111 for the rookie Edwards).

Second year LB Alex Singleton may be among the first wave of cuts. He’s a Special Teamer who didn’t see any defensive snaps during the season. That isn’t exactly a vote of confidence from the team, about his ability to play his position.

Rookie OLB Davion Taylor is a tweener in the Nate Gerry mold. Doesn’t seem to offer much vs the run. he’ll have to add weight to his 225 frame to handle the NFC East.

Rookie MLB Shaun Bradley is nice “local boy makes good” story, but his tape says Practice Squad at best.

Rookie free agent signee, MLB Dante Olson looks like a genuine Tackle to Tackle presence, but that may not be the best scheme-fit. I like him. I really do. However, unless the Eagles are about to alter what we do at MLB, I don’t know how he fits.

EAGLES 2020 SCHEDULE PREVIEW

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/08
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, NFL, Offense, Preview, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

the linc.png

FIRST of all let me say, that this schedule is very nice! A Week 10 Bye would have been better than the Week 8 Bye that we got. However, with the uncertainty surrounding how much of this season will actually get played, while not perfect, this schedule is really really good.

This is a much better schedule than 2019’s, which I said last year was a trap. Because to hell with who’s on the schedule, it’s when the games fall that matters. Last year was loaded with traps. This year…not so much.

Understand, the Eagles won’t have a stout Defense in 2020. There is no feared pass-rusher. Our second level is a question mark. The Secondary just lost it’s leader. So for us to win 11 games, we’re going to have to put up a ton of points this year, and the roster has been stacked to do exactly that.

Home games. We get back to back homes games, and we get a stretch of three home games in the first half of the season. So from Pittsburgh through the Bye (W5 to W10), the Eagles never have to leave the state. As one die-hard Eagles fans pointed out,

no plane no plane

Away games. We get three sets of back to back road games. San Fran and Pittsburgh (W4, W5), are early in the year. Then coming off of our Bye (W10, W11), it’s just 2 hours up 95 to NY. The following week we don’t even break the time-zone flying to Cleveland. The only set that concerns me in terms of travel, are (W15, W16) at Arizona and Dallas.

Games that flat out concern me are

*Baltimore (W6) because running QB’s give us fits.

*Seattle (W12) because we have never beaten their running QB.

*Green Bay (W13) because it’s Lambeau in December. We beat them in 2019, but that game was in September. 

*New Orleans (W14) because like Seattle, they seem to have our number.

From a knee-jerk expectation standpoint, that still hints at a 12 – 4 record. Not bad, but let’s look closer at this thing. Let’s level the playing field and assume everybody stays healthy on all the rosters.

1. Washington. As long as they run a 3-4 defense, they’ll never beat this team. Especially without a QB. Right Alex?

Leg injury

2. LA Rams. Doug Pederson has Sean McVay’s number. Plus the Rams lost a ton of talent.

3. Cincinnati. Expect the Eagles defense to make life hard on the rookie QB.

4. San Francisco. Teams have tape on the 49ers. Andy Reid will give Doug the blueprint.

5. Pittsburgh. Getting their QB back is a plus, but now his weapons are just average.

6. Baltimore. This one will be trouble if nothing is done about our LB’s.

7. New York giants. Their new coaching staff is on it’s first short week.

garrett clapping

8. Dallas. Cowboys second straight road game vs a rested Eagles team.

9. BYE WEEK 7 – 1 (projected)

10. New York giants. Rested Eagles overwhelm inferior opponent.

11. Cleveland. Winnable game, but too much cockiness causes a needed stumble.

12. Seattle. No move in the offseason was made to shore-up their 27th ranked pass defense. The Eagles come into this game with weapons this year.

crying seahawk.jpeg

13. Green Bay. It’s Lambeau. In December. Those four words, in that order, are terrifying.

14. New Orleans. Winnable game. Third road game in a row, for a team that had a W6 bye.

15. Arizona. Not nearly enough effort went into keeping their tiny QB upright. Big mistake. Biiiig mistake. 

16. Dallas. Our second road game in a row. Whoever needs this game more, will win it.

17. Washington. This one gets goofy. Eagles back-ups are playing before the half.

piano

Likely 11 – 5

The only game that feels like a predetermined loss is Baltimore. That too could change if the Eagles sign a LB, or one of the young LB’s prove me wrong and becomes a stud. So yeah, the Eagles had better sign someone.