WHAT IF CARSON WENTZ FAILS?

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/22
Posted in: Conversations, NFC East, Offense, Players, Roster, stats, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment
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Courtesy Daily Express

FIRST of all, I don’t think QB Carson Wentz is going to fail at either winning a Super Bowl (while playing in it), or becoming the Eagles GOAT at QB. Let’s get that out of the way right now. However, it’s a slow offseason, so we have time to ruminate, and to discuss the flip-side of our expectations. A rare occasion amongst Eagles fans, no doubt!

Wentz has always had good arm strength, but no one has ever said he had a cannon. So his game isn’t reliant on that. His knee situation is unlikely to repeat in the same leg, and even if it did, his game isn’t that of a running QB. Long story short, barring a serious injury to his throwing shoulder (knock wood), his career should survive pretty much any serious football related injury.

As far as coaching stability, and stability of system, he has those. He’s mastered the system he plays in. As far as not having weapons, his weapons are top shelf. Right now he has a TE who just set the NFL all-time record for catches in season; the NFL’s top deep threat; a WR who makes 50-50 balls into 85-15 balls (even in double coverage); and a slot WR who’d be a #1 or 2 receiver for a number of teams (Detroit, Washington, New York (either), Buffalo, Tennessee, and New England to name a few).

So Wentz has weapons, coaching stability, system mastery, and the youth to recover from pretty much any serious football injury. He also has a well demonstrated devotion to his craft. So what could stop him, since Father Time hasn’t begun to work against him yet?

Circumstance. Carson Wentz can be stopped, by circumstance. No one ever sees how big a role circumstance plays in the day to day. We generally only think of the broad strokes. Let me give you an example of Circumstance.

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Courtesy Daily Express

Last year we were swept by the Dallas Cowboys, so Carson Wentz goes 0 – 2 against that team in 2018. This means Dallas QB Dak Prescott went 2 – 0 vs the Eagles in 2018. Those are immutable facts. Let’s not ignore them, but let’s look a little deeper, shall we?

Game 1:
Prescott: 26 – 36 – 72.2% – 270 – 1 – 0 – 102.8/ 6 – 9 – 1.5 – 1 – 1
Wentz:    32 – 44 – 72.7% – 360 – 2 – 1 – 102.5/ 2 – 7 – 3.5 – 0 – 0

Game 2:
Prescott: 42 – 54 – 77.8% – 455 – 3 – 2 – 104.9/4 – 2 – 0.5 – 1 – 1
Wentz:    22 – 32 – 68.8% – 228 – 3 – 0 – 120.3/4 – (-3) – (-0.8) – 1 – 1

It’s impossible to look at those numbers and come away thinking that Prescott was the better QB last year. Yet Dallas got the sweep. That could have something to do with the fact that the Eagles Secondary was so beat up, that slowing people down was hard enough. Totally stopping opposing offenses was next to impossible.

Factoring that in, you understand how circumstance helped net Wentz those two loses, in games he played well in. (It also explains partly why Dallas is so hesitant to commit big money to Prescott, who is also a victim of circumstance. I’ll explore that if enough of you ask for it.)

Another example of Circumstance, is the Super Bowl that Wentz helped us win. This is not to take anything away from QB Nick Foles. If I were the GM, Foles would still be on the roster. So understand, I’m not trying to knock his contribution in any way, shape, or form. But let’s sprinkle a lil’ context on these facts. You know how much I love context…

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When Wentz went down against the Rams in 2017, it was in the act of giving us the lead, to help keep us the #1 seed in the NFC. Foles came in, baby sat for a couple of drives, and then the defense put the game on ice with a score. The following two weeks saw Foles win a shootout vs a 2 -12 giants team, and a “closer than the score would indicate” 19 – 10 squeaker over a 6 – 9 Raiders team. Foles held the fort in a 15 – 10 playoff win over Atlanta, but didn’t shine.

However, Foles had two weeks of absolute magic in the NFC Championship game, and in the Super Bowl itself. Those two weeks cannot be denied, but they are still only two weeks. They belie the fact that many in the Eagles fan base, had doubts about Foles. (Not me. I was pumping out supportive meme after meme.)

But after just two magic weeks, Foles is a Philly legend, complete with a statue, and Wentz is rhetorically in the backseat trying to get on that level. Fact is, Wentz built the stage that Foles was able to perform on. Yet circumstances make it appear otherwise.

With the NFL being a pass first and second league right now, there is no doubt that Wentz will soon overtake Donovan McNabb for franchise GOAT at QB. You can practically set a date and start a countdown. (I just typed ‘cuntdown’. LOL) The Super Bowl win is less of a given, but still I wouldn’t bet against Wentz.

If he doesn’t meet both of these marks, I won’t be angry. What I’ll be is shocked.

REDSKINS, giants, ERECK FLOWERS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/19
Posted in: Conversations, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Roster, trade, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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SEEMS like the Redskins are going to make an upgrade to their offensive line. Not a serious upgrade (Chase Roullier is still the Center), but an upgrade none the less. Specifically, they are moving free agent OT Ereck Flowers to LG. The move is pure genius. Which is probably why I saw it coming AND TOLD YOU THAT IT WAS, two months before the Redskins put it out there. 

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Flowers has been a train wreck at OT, both on the left and the right spots, whether for the giants, Jaguars, or a brief stint in mini-camp for Washington in the absence of LT Trent Williams (who may have played his last snap in DC).

True to form, the brain-trusts both in New York and Jacksonville failed to realize that a powerful mountain of a man who has trouble with speedy/agile opponents, might be better off being moved one space over. The Redskins sort of stumbled over it, and lo and behold, it should work out well for them. Hooray!

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Trying to play devil’s advocate it would have made sense not to move him to G, if the giants or Jags had a pair of All-Pro’s both at RG and LG. However, neither team had ONE such player at the time. The giants have since drafted Will Hernandez, who ‘Will’ likely be a good one for a years to come. (And no, I’m not sorry for that pun.) However, I can’t even play devil’s advocate on this one.

The notion that both teams tried him at only two out of five spots, the same two spots mind you, with one team (Jacksonville) knowing the that his prior team tried the same thing, is pure FARCE.

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Somewhere out there in NFL-Land, are two front offices loaded with professionals who have degrees, and references, Who’ve logged hundreds, possibly thousands of hours lifetime, of pouring over the details of scouting, and draft minutia, player background investigations, along with interviews they have sat in on, and/or conducted, to say nothing of all the football they’ve watched. The notion that NOT ONE of these professionals ever said “Hey. Could that guy move over just one spot?” is mind-boggling. 

Yet there Flowers sits. Smiling that Lennie Small smile. About to greatly benefit a division rival, when he should still be in NY keeping them from having to trade for grossly overpaid journeymen like Kevin Zeitler. Moves like this are why giants fans are always so sad and frustrated.

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If Flowers goes onto have a great year in 2019, a handful of people in two cities (but especially New York) should be tied to a stake, doused with gasoline, and simply walked away from. They will likely, accidentally, agree upon a way to set themselves on fire.

STABILITY AT QUARTERBACK

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/18
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Reviews, Roster, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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CARSON Wentz has missed 8 of a possible 48 regular season games, and all 5 of the Eagles postseason games in the last two years. Still with the amount of talk about him being injured, you’d think he’d missed whole seasons, and didn’t contribute heavily to BOTH of the Eagles playoff runs.

The perception is that he’s always hurt, but let’s step back and look at the facts:

1) In 2017 he suffered a common football injury, when he tore up his knee whilst diving for a touchdown in a game where we were down 24 – 28. The touchdown was called back, but he got up on that torn up knee and threw a touchdown on the subsequent play. The victory would go a long way towards our playoff seeding, helping us secure our fourth championship via our first Super Bowl win

2) The first two games he missed in 2018 were the team holding him out, until they got medical clearance to allow him to play. This was done despite Carson’s insistence that he could practice and play.

3) The last three games he missed in 2018 were due to the team shutting him down when damage was found to his vertebrae. This was also despite Carson’s insistence that he could play.

4) Only three of Wentz’s missed regular season games were directly the result of his injury. Five of his misses were the Eagles organization being cautious with their Franchise QB, and shutting him down over his public objections. That’s not fragility. That’s a smart organization thinking of the big picture.

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Yes, Wentz has missed 8 starts in two years, 13 counting playoffs. Those are facts, and indisputable as such. However, facts without context leads to poor perception, which leads to poor understanding. Garnering facts without understanding them, is in many ways worse than not having the facts at all, as it leads people to assume that they get what’s happening, when nothing could be further.

Now with a mega-deal in place. Wentz will be expected/allowed to play through things the team used to shut him down over. That’s not to say he’ll never miss time. He has a history of injuries and the body doesn’t age in reverse. What it means is, it will likely take a catastrophe to get him off the field, going forward. Expect to see him out there.

That said, this article is called STABILITY AT QUARTERBACK. That means the whole position not just at Starter. So let’s look a little deeper in the bag and see what we have in here.

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Many fans are wishing QB Nick Foles was still an Eagle and they might get that wish granted. In a roundabout way. QB Nate Sudfeld has a similar build, a sneaky sort of athleticism, and also plays within himself, while trusting the system he plays in. Nothing about him screams Pro Bowler, but he’s been nothing but solid when asked to step in.

He hasn’t been as bold as Foles, but then again he hasn’t had the benefit of ever being a team’s starter. He’s going into his third season with the same system and core players. He’s on a 1-year deal, but with the plethora of young QB’s all over the league, even if he left after this season, he’s walking into another back-up job. With a brand new system to learn. So expect him to be here in 2020.2019 Clayton Thorson .jpg

Rookie QB Clayton Thorson reminds me a lot of Carson, back when he came out of college. Word has it that Clayton didn’t look great in mini-camp, so he’ll have a steep hill to climb to challenge for that #2 spot in Training Camp. Which is almost certainly for the best. A year wearing a baseball cap, carrying a clipboard, and asking Nate questions is probably the best thing for him.

It’s hard to tell if QB Cody Kessler is just a camp body, or the Eagles hedging to have depth already on the roster, just in case of injury during Training Camp. Word is, he’s looked good in mini-camp, but what else would you expect from a 4 year vet, with starts on his resume?

So lets re-cap. Carson doesn’t miss with injuries that often, Nate is experienced within the system, with the players, and even with the weather we get late in the year. Cody is the second most experienced QB, and Clayton is all up-side. Of all of them, Carson and Cody are the oldest at 26. It would take very little to sign a couple of these guys to long-term deals. So yeah. The Eagles are stocked and stable at QB.

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DON’T FORGET ALSHON JEFFERY

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/16
Posted in: Conversations, Offense, Players, playoffs, Reviews, Roster, stats, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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SOMETHING has gotten lost in all the talk of QB Carson Wentz’s health, his contract, his budding chemistry with WR DeSean Jackson, the progress of rookie WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, and the return of record setting TE Zach Ertz. Specifically what has been lost, is the fact that WR Alshon Jeffery, is still the #1 WR on this Offense.

During Wentz’s 2017 MVP-caliber run, 8 of his 33 touchdown passes found their way into Jeffery’s hands. Ertz caught 7 from Wentz that year. In 2018 Jeffery caught 5 and Ertz 6 from Wentz, for a total of 13 apiece, in two seasons. As a scoring weapon, no Eagle has been a bigger threat than Jeffery, with Wentz at the helm. This is despite 54 fewer targets and 68 fewer catches than Ertz, over that span.

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In the last two years, Ertz has 1 touchdown in the postseason, the one from the Super Bowl. In that same span Jeffery has 3, one of which was also in that Super Bowl.

While all the talk is about how the top will now come off of opposing defenses, the fact is, we have a guy who is open even when he is covered, due to his insane catch radius. Also he’s a tall guy. He can also jump really high. Put bluntly, Jeffery is a motherfucking problem. Just ask the guy who used to be Josh Norman:

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Given more space to roam this upcoming season, over the course of 16 games, I would expect him to produce somewhere in the neighborhood of a career-high 11 touchdowns. Probably 3 of which will involve going up for a jump ball with a guy who loses, and then can’t quite bring Alshon down.

So this is just a reminder Eagles fans. While the world may have forgotten about Jeffery, or written him off due to a drop, don’t you sleep on him too.

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SAQUON BARKLEY’S BIG 2019

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/15
Posted in: Conversations, NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment
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giants fans are bullish on Saquon Barkley in 2019.

WHEN giants head coach Pat Shurmur said rookie QB Daniel Jones is “on track with the goal to be ready to play day one”, he inadvertently made it clear (to anyone with common sense), that even if Jones doesn’t get the week one nod, he will start at some point in this 2019 season.

Which means that he also inadvertently made it clear that RB Saquon Barkley, is about to see a ton of work, since the best friend of a young QB, is a running game. Well actually it’s any QB’s best friend, but even more so, for a young one. That means when Jones takes over at QB, at lot of the load will fall on Barkley, who will be relied on primarily for two key things.

First, getting yards on early downs, in order to keep 3rd downs manageable, and expose the young tyke to fewer blitz situations, where he has to hold the ball while receivers uncover.

Second, Barkley will be key in helping Jones identify where the blitzes are coming from, as well as physically picking them up, to give Jones the confidence to know that in the future, he can operate without worry. This has giants fans expecting GIANT things.

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Barkley has more than enough talent and experience to these things. So this has giants fans bullish about Barkley’s upcoming season. However, it’s possible, even highly probable, that if Jones isn’t a transformative talent, this might be the start of Barkley’s demise as a player.

This season Barkley will log a lot of heavy-use downs, where his body takes more abuse than he did last year. As Jones opens as next years starter and tries to set his feet vs teams with tape on him, Barkley will also see heavy-use, next season. At a stout 5’11 233 pounds, Barkley is physically built for it. Then again so was 5’11 220 pound Rodney Hampton, back in 1994 to 96.

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Rodney Hampton vs (then) division rival and annual doormat, Phoenix Cardinals. Back when the NFC East had FIVE teams in it.

For giants fans I’m about to use two dirty words. Sorry, but I have to. QB Dave Brown. Brown is the reason that Hampton went from being age 25 to age 40 in just two seasons. To give Brown a stable platform, the giants offense was hung around Hampton’s neck like bling from the planet Krypton.

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To put it in flat numerical terms, in 1994 Hampton had 327 rushes to Brown’s 350 pass attempts. And Hampton only played in 14 games that year! The workload was too much.

Since Brown never panned out as a starter (1994 -96: 47 starts, 20W – 27L, 35TD – 46Int), the load was never shifted off of Hampton, and he had to carry the offense, for three straight years. The giants essentially took an up and coming star, and ran him into the ground. (In four seasons with Brown at QB, Hampton had 963 touches and just one play of 30 yards or more.)

So it stands to reason that the giants may want to take a lesson from history, and monitor closely how much of their offense is run through Barkley. There is no denying his talent. He is definitely a special player. So while as a division rival, I root for seeing him contained, it would be sad to see him sacrificed on the altar of, “Trying to Legitimize Daniel Jones”.

Unfortunately, that seems to be what’s on the menu for 2019.

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WE’RE COVERED AT CORNERBACK

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/14
Posted in: Defense, free agents, Players, Reviews, Roster, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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SILVER linings, right? Last year in 2018, our Secondary was decimated by a vicious injury bug that resulted in having to start 13 different players over the course of 16 regular season games. While that wasn’t a good thing, it worked itself into a very long-lasting positive. It forced our young Secondary players to grow up fast. Especially at CB.

The seeds of last year’s efforts are already producing fruit. It’s great that we get back CB Ronald Darby from a mid-season blown ACL, CB Jalen Mills from a mid-season foot injury, and CB Sidney Jones from late season hamstring strain. Even better however, is the fact that CB Rasul Douglas and CB Avonte Maddox are openly challenging for the spots that they effectively manned last year.

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Rasul Douglas

Let’s not forget about reserve CB’s Cre’Von LeBlanc, and free agent signee Blake Countess. LeBlanc has proven dangerous, and quick study as a Nickel here. Countess has a few starts for the Rams, but not in our system. So it remains to be seen if he takes well to it.

Still, that puts us six CB’s deep, with a seventh possible. Four of whom (Darby, Mills, Douglas and Maddox) can be referred to as big game tested, legit starters in this league. Name another team that can boast that.

That’s not to say that 2019 doesn’t bring a few question marks with it.

Sidney Jones has struggled to stay healthy since before we drafted him. He has yet to be 100% since becoming a pro. A lot of his struggles can clearly be traced back to him not yet trusting his body’s recovery. The hope is that it doesn’t permanently damage his confidence. Can he finally justify the second round pick the Eagles bestowed upon him?

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Jalen Mills is a better Nickle than outside Corner because he has trouble with true speed. Also his tackling degenerated to that of an ankle-biter, when he plays on the edge. He’s an emotional spark plug though, and every good Secondary has to have one or two of those. Mills was the Starter when he went down. Will Mills start on the outside in 2019?

Ronald Darby’s stock in trade is his ability to turn and run with true speed. However, coming off a second serious injury in two years (2017 broken leg, 2018 torn ACL), you have to wonder how much of his ability to accelerate and gear down RELIABLY, still remains.

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This is football. You don’t have it back, until you prove that you do. Does Darby still have the speed that sets him apart, or he just average now?

The odds on favorites at starter are Darby and Jones, right now. However, Rasul Douglas and Avonte Maddox have been turning heads in Mini-Camp. True, it’s shorts and no real contact. It’s just glorified catch, meant to wake the body up, introduce new concepts, and integrate new players. Still, when given the opportunity to show out, you should show up, and these young guys are.

Again, if Countess pans out we could end up with seven bonafide players here. The Eagles will likely only keep six, possibly squirreling Maddox away under the FS position (since it’s what he played before last year forced him to change that). In any case, we are COVERED at Cornerback.

COWBOYS HAVE NO GAME

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/06/12
Posted in: Conversations, NFC East, NFL, playoffs, Rants, Rivals, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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CARSON Wentz’s new deal naturally has pretty much any sportswriter (me included), talking about Dak Prescott’s contract situation, and how it’s at a standstill. You can’t talk about the consequences of signing Prescott, without bringing up his team. So these days I find myself not just writing about Prescott and the Cowboys, but thinking about them in ways I usually don’t have the time to.

Cowboys fans: You’ve already given me the traffic. Clicking away now means nothing. You may as well keep reading, as I twist the knife a little deeper.

Eagles fans: Sometimes I REALLY enjoy what I do.

Giants fans: You guys may get a kick out of this.

Redskins fans: You can read?! Good for you! You GO, girl!

It seemed like forever that we Eagles fans had to hear it from the rest of the division: “You’re the only team in the division that hasn’t won a Super Bowl! Nyah-nyah Nyah-nah!”

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Well, then we won one. We completed the mission. So everyone could shut up, and stop saying that we CAN’T do something. Because we already did it. It’s done. But then we started getting new flack about how we still aren’t really in the winner’s circle, yet. It’s always something, right?

Funny thing about that winner’s circle though. While every team in the NFC East has won a Super Bowl, only three of us have won an NFL Championship game. The Eagles. The giants. And the Redskins. The Cowboys have never won one. Never even been to one. And do you know what the BEST part is? They can’t ever go to one. Meaning they can’t win one. CAN’T. Not ever.

Get your popcorn folks! Because here’s where it starts to get really GOOD!

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Now that the NFL no longer plays an “NFL Championship” game, the Cowboys can never be in a position to win it. Since the league changed the name of the game, it means they’re forever stuck behind us in that category, right?

OR…

Everyone can admit that regardless what the championship game is named, it’s just that. A championship game. Thus, a league’s champion is just that: The League Champion.

What this means, is that Cowboys fans can either adopt an admission of forever being behind us in NFL Championships, or acknowledging that those 1948, 1949, and 1960 Championships won by the Eagles, are the equivalent of the Super Bowls.

Either the games are equivalent, and the Cowboys are still ahead of us 5 to 4. Or they games are different, and the Cowboys are ahead of us, 5 to 1 in Super Bowls, but FOREVER behind us, 3 to zero in NFL Championships.

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You know what? We’ll let THEM pick which one they like. Either one works for Eagles fans. What’s great is that there is no middle ground to take. The games are either the same or they are different. There is no fence sitting for Cowboys fans. They HAVE TO come down on either side of that issue.

We’re behind in championships no matter how you look at it. However, we can eventually close the gap in “Super Bowls”. That’s what the game is known as now, and it’s doubtful the name will ever change again. (Plus, I doubt the Vikings will get suckered into sending them to three more Super Bowls.)

Now for the best part. We get to either watch Cowboys fans finally acknowledge history, or adopt an admitted position of being second rate, out of sheer stubbornness to give us due credit. Heads we win. Tails they lose.

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WOW! This Carson Wentz deal is paying dividends already.