Ezekiel Elliott

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2021 DALLAS COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2021/04/21
Posted in: breakdown, Defense, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

LAST year Dallas finished 6 – 10 overall, and 2 – 4 in the division. It can be said that they were derailed by a number of injuries, but that was par for the course for everyone in this division. So nope! No one gets a pass because of injuries in 2020. Hey, remember this?:

Dallas was just an expensive and over-hyped bad team. Period.

But that was last year! Here’s what Dallas looks like 8 days prior to the 2021 NFL Draft.

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OFFENSE

QB: Dak Prescott returns! But just how much of him is going to make it back? About a month the press got hold of some video of his rehab process. Take a look at it. Specifically his right ankle:

He’s all arm and no mechanics from the waist down. There is no dropback. No plant. No drive. No stepping into his passes. Worse than how he looks, is the fact that this is becoming muscle memory for him. For any of you who ever played a sport, you know how hard it is to unlearn a bad habit once you pick it up. As for picking up where he left off, he spent 2020 going 2-3 as a starter, with both wins being worthy of a shrug. His win over ATL was a product of the Falcons refusing to recover an onside kick. The win over the giants was a game he started, but didn’t finish. He could have easily gone 0 – 5. Behind him are Garrett Gilbert who battled PIT in Week 9 to lose by just 5; and Ben “Bring It On” DiNucci who in Week 8 was handed an ‘L’ by PHILADELPHIA. Preseason legend Cooper Rush has also found his way back onto the roster. Prescott will probably be present, but held out of anything on-field during OTA’s and mini-camp. His first real work might not come until training camp starts in July. That said, as of this moment, this moment right here, the Cowboy have as many question marks at this position as every one of their rivals. (-)

RB: Ezekiel Elliott (for the third straight year) saw his rushing attempts, rushing yardage, rushing yards per game, rushing average, AND receiving yardage, drop again. Only twice did he top 100 rushing yards, and he was held to fewer than 50, in six games. He had just 3 rushes of 20 or more yards, and his longest catch was for just 19. His last rush of 40 yards? That was back in 2018. In fact, that was his only one since 2016. This is why Dallas is making the slow pivot to a backfield tandem with Tony Pollard. Pollard was initially considered a change of pace runner. However, in an attempt to add some explosiveness to their run game, Dallas began increasing Pollard’s snap count after the midpoint of 2020. Pollard lacks many of Elliott’s tools (power, alpha mentality, expectation of greatness). However, if he gets a hole, he has the short-area explosiveness to exploit it, although he lacks the long speed to make himself an every down threat. Rico Dowdle and Sewo Olonilua are also on the roster. (+)

WR: Amari Cooper led the team in catches, and receiving yards while posting an impressive 70% catch rate, despite everyone in Texas getting to throw him a pass last year. Rookie Ceedee Lamb posted 935 yards, while coming in second on the team in targets and catches. Michael Gallup saw over 100 targets, but still was third fiddle with just 59 catches. All three caught 5 TD’s apiece. With Lamb’s presence, Gallup now becomes expendable. Though many will try to talk up a three amigos scenario, it’s more likely that Three’s A Crowd

Cedric Wilson and Noah Brown give the Cowboys two receivers who know their system, and thus represent at least schematic depth, if not depth of talent. This is currently the best group in the division. (+)

TE: Blake Jarwin tore his ACL in the first game of the season, and was lost for 2020. So in stepped Dalton Schultz. With 63 grabs and an average of 9.7 yards per grab, Schultz was a functional outlet, and someplace safe to dump the ball off. Which is exactly why he posted a 70% catch rate. He has plenty of value as a back-up, but as a starter… not being a threat as a receiver makes him a liability to the run game. Speaking of not being a receiving threat, I guess Dallas is playing Hollywood Squares because,

they added free agent, Jeremy Sprinkle for the block! Really, blocking is pretty much all he’s good for. This is a viable position, but it doesn’t scare anyone right now. “Right now” being the operative term. (+)

OT: Tyron Smith is back after having had season-ending neck surgery, to fix an issue that has cost him games over the years. While 31 isn’t ancient, paired with that neck surgery, it’s fair to wonder how much of Smith will be returning to the field. Filling in for Smith were Brandon Knight and Cameron Fleming (now in Carolina). On the right, La’el Collins missed nearly all of 2020 with what is vaguely reported as a hip injury. At 6’4” 320, and bending over to get into a three-point stance for a living, a hip injury is no minor thing. Especially when a hip injury is reported like it’s a “hip injury”, which indicates that it may be more than a hip injury. Filling in for Collins was Terence Steele. Knight and Steele played well enough for the Cowboys to run right out and sign free agent Ty Nsekhe, for more money than Knight and Steele are making in 2021. Combined. There is talent here, but it hasn’t been stable or reliable, and that has directly cost this team games and division crowns. Expect a day two draft pick to be spent here. (-)

G: Zach Martin finished 2020 on the bench, but that was after 5 weeks of being on IR with a calf injury. He comes back in 2021 as one of the premier players in the league at his position. On the other side is Connor Williams. While he can’t be mistaken for an All-Pro, he’s a three year starter in that spot, his line-mates know what to expect from him, and so they know how to play off of him. For those who know anything about offensive lines, please explain to your friends how valuable that is. Depth consists of Connor McGovern (not to be confused with Jets C Connor McGovern). McGovern is depth, provided the Cowboys don’t also move him to the pivot. For his part, he notched 8 starts last year on the left when Martin was injured, or was slid out to the edge due to injuries. Former giant Eric Smith enters his second year in a Cowboys jersey. That is, if a draft pick doesn’t beat him out for his roster spot. (+)

C: Second-year man, Tyler Biadasz started 4 games as a rookie, during which Dak Prescott was injured and 3 losses followed. Now he will be the man in the middle, unless something totally wild happens. Behind him is Adam Redmond. In 2018, Redmond saw 96 offensive snaps in 4 games, getting no starts, despite the Cowboys having deep injury concerns on their left side in 2018. Weird. When names like John Gesek, Mark Stepnoski, and Travis Frederick, can roll off of a rival fan’s tongue, you know Biadasz will not be getting the benefit of the doubt. He has lot to live up to, and is not off to a great start in doing so. (-)

IN A NUTSHELL: This team has weapons, but it needs a triggerman who can get the ball where it needs to be. Check that video again. That’s not the look of an NFL QB. That’s not even the look of a top college QB. Maybe Prescott will make massive leaps by training camp July, but that’s only 75 days away. Sounds like a lot. It isn’t. In any case, he’ll need to be kept upright, and right now 60% of his protection looks shaky, with no real depth behind it. This is why they had to have a potential Hall of Game G, slide out to play OT. Adding Nsekhe was a good first step, but alone he doesn’t fix this unit’s Achilles heel. With all the weapons they have, (all of whom they had last year), they still finished 17th out of 32 in scoring. (-)

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DEFENSE

DE: It’s official. It’s been three seasons in a row. DeMarcus “War Daddy” Lawrence is now a shadow of himself. Even with help on the opposite side, his sack and QB hits are consistently down, and he never seems to affect games anymore. Randy Gregory recorded no starts in 2020, but looked good on spot detail with 3.5 sacks in ten games. The Cowboys have their fingers crossed that he can play 16 games with his hand in the dirt. Tarell Basham comes over from the Jets to add some rotational pass rush. While he will definitely get pressure on a QB, he’s strictly a stand-up rusher. Being unable to play from a three point stance, means not being to consistently play against the run. This position is in trouble, and anyone in sports media will tell you, and has been telling you, the exact same thing. (-)

DT: Antuan Woods is the Cowboys best player at a position that produced 1.5 sacks TOTAL, in 2020. To his credit, Woods produced a sack. He specializes in neither rushing the passer, nor stuffing the run, but he’s still the tone setter for this position thus far. Starting nine games as a rookie was Neville Gallimore. That other half sack was his. Again, neither stuffing the run, nor getting to the passer seems like his calling card. The Cowboys may be hoping for a big rebound from Trysten Hill, who opened 2020 as a starter, before tearing his ACL in Week 5. No matter. His play to that point was unremarkable. That is, when he wasn’t drawing flags and fines for a helmet to helmet hit on QB Russell Wilson on one play, and twisting the knee of RB Chris Carson, injuring him after the yet another play had ended. Real talk? Hill’s ACL tear had all the earmarks of Karma. Hill also clashed with Cowboys coaching staff in his rookie year. It will be interesting to see what kind of player the Cowboys get back from his rehab. Justin Hamilton got two starts in 2020, (and FYI, the Cowboys won both games). No one is afraid of this group. (-)

OLB: Leighton Vander Esch gives an all-out effort, but his production continues to fall off, as he continues to miss games with big injuries. Last year a broken collarbone cost him four weeks early in the season, and he was inactive for the last two games of the year. (Sean Lee remains in talks with the team, but at this moment, is still unsigned.) Keanu Neal is leaving the secondary and switching to this position. This gives the Cowboys more flexibility with coverage underneath. But how ready can Neal be at 216 pounds, to spend most of a game taking on offensive linemen? He will no doubt be targeted heavily every week, by opposing run games. That said, the position is a lot more athletic than they were at year’s end. That’s an improvement. (+)

MLB: Jaylon Smith is the second best player in the division at his position. He’s reliable, doesn’t stick to blockers, and can play in coverage as well as fight the run. Luke Gifford played a single defensive down in 2020. So yeah. Jaylon is super-reliable. (+)

S: Understanding that this position needed gentrification, the Joneses went out and added Damontae Kazee to be specific. Donovan Wilson looks to be safe at SS. Kazee has a reputation for having sticky fingers, so he likely has the inside track over Darian Thompson on the other starting gig. At 6’4’’ 215 free agent addition Jayron Kearse is tall. Good for him! (-)

CB: Trevon Diggs turned a lot of heads as a rookie in 2020. He played with tremendous confidence, whether he was making a play, or getting juiced over a mistake. Nabbing 3 picks and getting his hands on a total of 14 balls, will make teams treat him different in 2021. Anthony Brown struggled with injuries, and only started eight of the ten games he played.In fact, in five seasons he’s never started more than ten. Due to the Cowboys starting a Nickel alignment, Jourdan Lewis picked up 13 starts. Mostly in the slot.

Jourdan Lewis

This is also why teams elected to run on them so much. And did such a good job of it. Opting out of 2020 due to Covid-19 was former Raven Maurice Canady. The Cowboys signed him last year, but never got to take him for a spin. So in their minds, he’s still an unapplied upgrade. (+)

IN A NUTSHELL: It’s always messy when a team decides to sign a guy to serious money, and then switch his position. Neal could be in for a pretty rough ride as an undersized LB in this division. Especially on a team that struggles to rush the passer. On most teams, Basham would be a sneaky good add, but the Cowboys already lack a DE who can stack the run. Adding one more as a back-up, seriously encourages opponents to run the ball on 3rd and short. This unit is so much faster than last year’s, but nothing about this side of the ball indicates that they can win in the trenches. (-)

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SPECIAL TEAMS

K: Greg Zuerlein was pretty reliable 34/41 (82.9%) with 6 of his misses (3/9) coming from 50 or greater (33.3%). Otherwise he was 31/32 (96.8%) He was 33/36 (91.6%) on extra points. (+)

P: Hunter Niswander was the punter for the final 8 games of 2020. He had just 26 punts, so it’s a small sample size, but the sample had his average punt at 47.2 yards with a net of 42.0. If we’re going to nit-pick, of his 26 punts, 9 were returned for 95 yards (10.5 ypr), indicating that he’s totally over-kicking his coverage team. Given a training camp, he should be able to shave 3 or 4 yards off of that return average. What say we meet back here in a year, and discuss how he did? Aaaand out of nowhere, the Cowboys added 32 year old Bryan Anger, because Jerry Jones wanted to blow his stimulus money on a Texan antique. (See what I did there?) Anger is likely a camp body just brought in to keep a fire lit under Niswander this preseason. (+)

IN A NUTSHELL: The legs on this unit are here to not lose the game. Just keep it close is all that’s asked of them. Should be an easy bar to reach. (+)

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BOTTOM LINE: The Cowboys need a big Draft. Offensively, the QB has weapons, but is coming back from injury. The RB has spent the last THREE YEARS, regressing every year. The once vaunted offensive line, is better known for injuries these days. Their defense couldn’t stop anybody last year (28th out of 32), and the only additions to the roster so far, are role players and experiments. There’s a new DC, but most of the Cowboys problem last year, was losing battles in the trenches, and they haven’t gotten better on either side of the ball. In fact, most of the returning starters, are the same guys who were taking those whippings. But hey!

HEY COWBOYS FANS…

Posted by The BEAST on 2020/05/03
Posted in: Conversations, Fans, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Roster. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

Draft heads 2017

REMEMBER June of 2019, when I wrote that QB Carson Wentz’s new contract wrecked the future for the Dallas Cowboys? If you don’t here’s the link. In it I explained why the Eagles signing their QB, meant a long-term downturn for the Cowboys. Things I said in that article, were confirmed in an article I wrote that following July. Here’s that link.

Understand, I live in Philadelphia. Never been to Dallas. Never even flexed shoe leather in the state of Texas. I have no internal sources on the Cowboys team. But Skip, this was a prophecy that called ahead, and told everyone to save the date!

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As of now, 6:30a.m. Sunday May 3rd, 2020, QB Dakota Prescott has yet to sign his 33M$ franchise tag, because he’s been saying all along that he wants 40M$ per year. In response, the Cowboys ran out and signed recently released Bengals QB Andy Dalton, to a 1 year, 7M$ deal. While Dalton is a bargain at that price, and an upgrade over back-up QB and preseason Hall of Famer Cooper Rush, make no mistake, this was meant as a shot across Prescott’s bow.

Meanwhile, Cowboys fans are lapping this up like kitties to cream. That’s because they aren’t seeing the bigger picture. They frequently take their eye off the ball, lose their place, and then wonder how they keep ending up in that same spot. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones distracts them with something shiny, and (yet again), everyone forgets that there was a plan.

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Funny thing is, it’s very likely to (yet again) blow up in Jones’s face. Last year during RB Ezekiel Elliott’s hold-out, Jones taunted Elliott when he praised RB Tony Pollard with the quote “Zeke who?” after Pollard had a decent showing (5 carries 42 yards) in a preseason game. Elliott continued his holdout, and when Jones caved, Elliott was given a 90M$ contract.

Having seen that playbook, Prescott has to know that he should sit until Jerry Jones caves. Either that or not sign, sit out the year, and show up in 2021 wearing a Redskins, Bears, Colts, Buccaneers, or Titans jersey. Meanwhile, the Cowboys would have to start their search for a franchise QB all over again.

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Speaking of playbooks! The Cowboys have changed their head coach, but they’re running the same offense as before, with last year’s coordinator. If Prescott signs quickly, that offense can hit the ground running. If Dalton starts, then he has to learn the system from the ground up. The Cowboys are in “win now” mode, but starting Dalton would derail all of that, right from the start.

No OTA’s, and no mini-camp, with a shortened training camp this year. Not a good look for a team with a new head coach. Especially in a division that features a division champ that won while they were wounded, but now is healed up, and has added weapons.

2019 opponent-rival mock

The Eagles are not in “win now” mode. The Eagles are in predator mode. They don’t have to worry about a learning curve, and a short camp works in favor of a roster that has seen too many recent injuries. While the short camp situation works against other teams, it actually works for the Eagles. So it’s not minus one Cowboys, zero Eagles. It’s minus one Cowboys, plus one Eagles. Just on preparedness alone.

For the Cowboys to have a chance, Jerry needs Prescott to start. Otherwise, 2020 is another 8 – 8 record, and possibly third place finish, instead of a fight for #1.

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WHAT NOW, COWBOYS?

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/09/04
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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BACK in July I told everyone that Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott had all the leverage, during his holdout. The Cowboys talked tough, and said they would not re-set the RB market. The owner Jerry Jones joked “Zeke who?” They brought in a former back-up, and tried to talk up a rookie change of pace back.

They barked, postured and ultimately caved entirely, to Elliott’s demand to be the highest paid RB in the game’s history. They gave him a 6 year, 90 million dollar extension, with a whopping 50 million of it guaranteed. In the process, they totally re-set the RB market.

But Elliott is beside the point. He was always going to get everything he wanted. I made that point over a month ago, with people telling me I was wrong.

(sigh)

i'm right

Again, Elliott is beside the point. The real question is what about QB Dak Prescott? Remember his demand for 40 million per year? The QB sits at the head of the table right? If the Cowboys caved to one of Prescott’s supporting cast, surely they have to be about to cave into him as well, right?

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If Prescott doesn’t get an offer that he likes this season, he can fly the coop and test free agency in March. That would leave them with no QB and limited options. The Cowboys could franchise tag him, but if he doesn’t sign it, they are again without a QB.

Jerry Jones is in a position where he either has to grossly overpay Prescott, or tell him to his face that he’s not worth the money. Either way, Prescott’s contract talks will do visible harm to the team, starting in March of 2020.

So the question is: What now?

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POOR EZEKIEL ELLIOTT

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/22
Posted in: Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, Offense, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

ezekewok

ALL jokes aside, I feel bad for RB Ezekiel Elliott, and RB Melvin Gordon. And for that matter pretty much any football player who holds out seeking more money. I say football player, because holdout situations are more common in pro football. By far.

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It’s an indication of a broken system. More on that in just a moment.

Whenever an athlete holds out, the fans almost always side against the guy that they spent years rooting for. Elliott is no different here. People who bought his jersey are now calling him “a diva” and “a baby”. They want him to “just go back and play” on his current contract. Which is hilarious. It will never happen. That’s why Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, quickly made him an offer.

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Why do fans want him to go back? Because they feel like their team needs him. Not his back-ups. Not a rookie. Not an aging free agent, who was sitting on his couch, hoping for his phone to ring. Cowboys fans want Elliott. They feel they need him. So if he’s so valuable, why are the fans against him being paid like he’s so valuable? Why not pay “the best” RB, like the best RB? This question vexes me.

You know what? Why not just forget about him, and focus on winning the division with who’s on the roster? LOL. We all know the reason for that. The mediocre QB who wants more money than he’s worth, will be even less than mediocre without his best crutch.

Without signing Elliott, the Cowboys don’t stand a chance of winning the division. Last year they swept an injury decimated Eagles team (9 – 7), and still only finished one game ahead (10 – 6), despite being a mostly healthy team. Without Elliott, the Cowboys go from predator to…

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As for the broken system. The primary reason that players hold out, is because they want deals that generally will challenge or exceed the salary cap. So as a matter of sound accounting practice, the first ask practically has to elicit a “No” response from organization. This is S.O.P. Then both sides get into negotiations as to how to make the player’s deal cap friendly.

But hold on! Who decides on what the salary cap is? You? Me? Congress? The ghost of Steve Jobs? No. It’s the owners. This is a self-imposed problem. It’s an artificial cap, imposed by the owners themselves, so later they can say to players “I can’t do nothin’ for you, man”.

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For instance, without the salary cap, how easy would it be for the Cowboys (worth 5 billion, remember), to pay Elliott even as much as 14M per year? Doing the math, without the cap, that 14M is .0028% of the team’s total value. Putting that in working class terms (aka you and me money): That’s like you have $1,000 in your pocket, and someone you claim to value highly, asks you for $2.80. 

However, with a salary cap, a billionaire can point to the guy who he profits off of, and say,professor hinkle.jpeg

“Look at him! Isn’t he greedy? He wants more than we have to give! He’s stealing from his teammates.” Mind you, those teammates are also laboring under the manufactured problem, known as the cap.

It’s the old Abbott and Costello ‘Two Tens for a Five’ routine. (It’s just 1:18. Totally worth your time. This smile is on me.)

They get you with the fast talk about Cabo, or an off-hand joke. Meanwhile just beyond your focus, is the blurry world of what’s really going on, i.e. this broken system. A system that’s deliberately being kept in a broken state. I mean, don’t you find it weird that the owners are never responsible for any of the mess that they legislate?

Fuck it. Let’s just keep blaming the players, right?

EAGLES WIN WAR WITH COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/08/14
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Conversations, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, stats, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

THE Cowboys swept the Eagles in 2018. That was a classic case of winning a battle, but losing a war. Make no mistake, from a long-term perspective, the Cowboys have already lost this war, because the Eagles have effectively shut any Super Bowl window that the Cowboys may have had.

2019-Nailed it Carsons deal

When I said that, I was under the impression that the financial issues that Dallas is enduring now, wouldn’t hit until March of 2020. I figured QB Dak Prescott would play out his rookie deal quietly. I figured WR Amari Cooper would play out his deal quietly. I figured RB Ezekiel Elliott would play out his deal as well, mostly quietly.

I saw this financial bind coming, I just didn’t think their players would trigger it. There was no way to see this coming. Had you told me in June, that Dallas would be going through this in 2019, I’d have dismissed it as a delusional fantasy, from a rival fan. I’d have said “You’re playing at FARCE! There’s no way the Cowboys players would derail their own team in that fashion!”

Yet here we are. So then, why do I credit the Eagles with what is happening in Dallas. How does QB Carson Wentz signing his contract, derail an entire franchise 1,500 miles away? How can the two things be connected? Surely I’m grasping at straws, right?

I’m going to keep this VERY simple. I’m going to draw three Simple Lines of Reasoning, and make it so that anybody who’s literate will understand it. There is no rocket science here. There is no “fuzzy math”. There is no smoke, nor mirrors. Here we go.

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(FACT) Wentz signs his deal in Philly for 32M$ per year on his extension.

(SLR) Dak Prescott in Dallas realizes that he hasn’t missed any games, he has won two division titles, he has played in actual playoff games, and head to head he “owns” Wentz. Prescott thinks he deserves more money.

(FACT) At the end of 2019 the Cowboys have to re-sign both Prescott, and Amari Cooper. If Prescott and the Cowboys don’t reach a deal during the season, Prescott will be Franchise tagged at about 33.9M$ per year. Cooper will command between 18 and 20M$ per year, and is a MUST HAVE, to legitimize Prescott’s tagged cap figure. On the low side, that comes in at 51.9M for those two players in 2020.

(SLR) Ezekiel Elliott has two years remaining on his rookie deal, but realizes that all of his potential extension money is going out the door NOW. Especially if he gets hurt, or has already been hurt, and is hiding it from the team to keep his value from depreciating. Powerbacks don’t have long NFL careers. If he or his doctor already sees a coming issue, he HAS TO hold out now. Once Prescott and Cooper have their checks in hand, there’ll be no more room at the feeding trough in two years.

(FACT) The Cowboys could’ve locked Prescott up for about 27M$ per year last year, but they didn’t. Prescott being paid less than QB’s Russell Wilson (35M per year, 1SB win, 2 appearances), Ben Rothlisberger (34M, 2SB wins), and Aaron Rodgers (33.5M, 1 SB win), was one thing. However, when Wentz with ZERO playoff wins, signed for 32M, it changed the valuation metrics.

(SLR) Prescott could sign with the Cowboys for a one year extension, and then once the new CBA is done, (with a much higher cap figure), then giving him a deal of 35M to 42M would be an easy lift. However, salary figures are ego driven. It’s not just about how many dollars a contract is worth, it’s also about what percentage of the cap can you get a team to commit to just you as a player. Making 34M of a 188M cap (18.0%), is less valuable than making 45M of a 260M cap (17.3%). There’s a difference of 9M in dollars, but it’s not about the dollars. Prescott can make up that 9M on an endorsement deal for Ford pick-up trucks, or Charles Schwab investments or whatever. It’s about being able to say “I mattered this much.” “I was this important to them.” “Once upon a time, I was the top. I was the pinnacle.” The QB that had to wait four rounds to hear his name, wants to say that he made it. In that regard he HAS TO beat Wentz’s deal. It otherwise invalidates beating his stats.

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People keep missing the forest for the trees. We live in age of loud voices, too much make-up, and movement for the sake of movement. What are you saying? Who are you underneath all that? Where are you really trying to go? Nuance now seems lost on most people. People disregard the small details, even though they influence everything.

Like the way one small signature in South Philly, tore down an entire franchise in Dallas.

ANOTHER FORMER COWBOY RETURNS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/30
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals, Super Bowl, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

2019 ZEKE HOLDOUT

THIS morning around 2:30, while watching “Speak For Yourself” I heard something that irritated me, mostly because it’s flat-out untrue. It was said that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones holds all the leverage in regards to the holdout of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott. Given what just happened with former Steeler/current Jet RB LeVeon Bell, this represents old thinking.

The thinking is, because there are two years, not one year, remaining on Elliott’s contract, the Cowboys can sit pat and eventually Elliott will either return on his current deal, or sign the Cowboys “take it or leave it” offer. That thinking is shortsighted and focuses on a commodity based mindset. It does not take into account, the entirety of the picture here.

Look, every sports show that talks about this issue, will tell you about what the player stands to lose here. No one seems to be thinking much about Elliott’s leverage, or what the organization stands to lose. Even more pressing is what Jones stands to lose personally. Oh yes. He has skin in the game. Literally.

jerry and jimmy

Remember when Jones forced out head coach Jimmy Johnson? The reason was largely because Jones felt that he didn’t get enough of the credit for building the Cowboys into a two-time (1992 and 1993) Super Bowl winner. Jones wanted to prove that he could win one without Johnson, and hey, Cowboys won another Super Bowl in 1995 under head coach Barry Switzer. However, everyone with at least two brain cells said “Yeah, but those are all still Jimmy’s players. Barry and Jerry just rode shotgun.”

So from that day to this, Jerry Jones has been on a quest to win one without ‘Jimmy’s players’. The problem is that Jones is 76, and there are fewer days ahead than behind. He is literally running out of time to get what he wants. And therein lies Ezekiel Elliott’s leverage. It’s TIME.

Due to Jones race against the clock, he has the Cowboys built to win now. Their window is now. Elliott’s holdout derails that, because the team goes as he goes. If Elliott no show, he no go. He no go, they no go. That burns a year of Jones’s life, over a sum of money he’d be willing burn to warm his feet. Jones needs Elliott more than the money. The money is a meaningless commodity. What’s precious is his remaining time.

But the game of one-upmanship must be played right?

alfred morris

So the Cowboys went out and signed RB Alfred Morris. Isn’t that just adorbs? They want to show Elliott that “the beat goes on”. They want to show him that they’re keeping it moving, keeping it shaking. Hot damn! You GO, Cowboys!

Except… The Cowboys have already had Morris. He was on the roster in 2016 and 2017. He was a teammate of, and the back-up to Elliott, before being released a year ago. If they really wanted Morris, they could have kept him. They didn’t. Could have had him months ago. They didn’t. So the Cowboys gallivanting around with some guy they settled for, won’t light a fire under Elliott. How could it? Why would it? Even Morris knows he’s just a seat warmer.

When Morris, or their rookie, or whomever else acting as a stand-in for the real thing, when that guy can’t deliver the goods, Jones will know that he’s wasting time. With every loss, that clock will tick louder. Louder and louder. Louder and louder.

There’s only so long left for Jerry to get what he’s spent decades craving, and Elliott is clearly the key to that. Whether Jones even has a chance at it, depends on him not playing the game of one-upmanship.

Then again, the game could go on and keep yielding the same old result:

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IT’S ALREADY STARTING

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/07/23
Posted in: Conversations, free agents, Front Office (F.O.), NFC East, NFL, Offense, Players, Rivals. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

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BACK on June 7th, I said that the Eagles signing of QB Carson Wentz to a 4 year extension, forces the Dallas Cowboys into a phone booth. I figured that those chickens would come home to roost at the end of the 2019-2020 season. However, events have conspired to actually hasten the demise of the Cowboys 2019 season, and likely beyond.

The first event was attempting contract negotiation with Cowboys QB Dak Prescott. A smarter team would have let the season start, gauged Prescott’s effectiveness or lack thereof, then made him an offer accordingly. Especially since they seem less than gung-ho, about committing to him long term for some reason. 

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Laugh if you want. She can probably suck the chrome off a trailer hitch.

Instead the Cowboys tried to get ahead of an inflating market, far too late into the process. If they were going to do that, they should have done so before a QB with lesser stats (Wentz), was inked to an offer commensurate with what franchise QB’s are going for today.

The second event was the “leaked” plan of Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott, to hold out if he doesn’t get a new deal, two years early. The Cowboys win when Elliott plays, and they lose when he doesn’t. If the Cowboys don’t pay him, they’re left with an over-rated, soon to be over-paid QB, throwing to their star (ugh, unintended pun) WR Amari Cooper, who’s on the last year of his deal, having said that he plans to play his contract out.

(FYI: Cooper is waiting to see what kind of money Falcons WR Julio Jones pulls down, to see what the market looks like. There is ZERO guarantee that he stays in Dallas.)

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I won’t even mention all the other expiring contracts the Cowboys have to deal with at season’s end. As it stands, these three are problematic enough on their own, but they’re hitting all at once. And what’s crazy is that NONE of them needs to be!

The reason I say “it’s already starting” is because today the Cowboys cut WR Allen Hurns, after he refused a pay cut. He was scheduled to carry a 2019 cap hit of 6.25M (4M base, 1.25M signing bonus, 1M roster bonus), but cutting him saves the Cowboys his 4M base. This 4M is money that they can now reallocate.

What this is, is a cannibalizing of the roster. I say this, because this is just the first of these moves. Lesser Cowboys are being ground up, to ensure that Jerry Jones team can feed his stars.

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This team’s starting QB, RB, and #1 WR are all playing with contracts on their minds. Either you have to prepare for the reality of losing one very shortly, or you have to realize that the only way to pay those three, is at the expense of their teammates. And don’t even entertain the notion of winning the division with such distraction looming.

Oh yeah. It’s already starting.

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FOUR THINGS: WK 14: EAGLES-COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2018/12/06
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, NFC East, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Rivals, X's and O's. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

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THIS game is for first place. Period. That said, a win doesn’t automatically get us into the playoffs, and a loss doesn’t automatically keep us out.

Beyond this game, we have the Los Angeles Rams. The team that QB Carson Wentz was injured against. Next week is the hugest game of the regular season. It is our biggest test, both in terms of how far we’ve come since Week One, and if there is any psychological block for Carson to work past. However, before we get to that game, we have some mongrels to put down.

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Last time we met this team, we were 4 – 4, they were 3 -5 and pundits were talking about how both teams needed to win that game, or the losing team’s season would be over. We lost. Yet our season is NOT over. In fact, this very game is for first place in the division. Just goes to show you what the pundits know.

Since that win over us, those same pundits are talking like the 7 – 5 Cowboys are invincible. Unbeatable! Destined to hold aloft the Lombardi when alllllll the smoke clears! Their defense IS after all, the same unit that held the Saints to 10 points, right? It is?

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Well then allow me to retort! If we’re dragging history out, let’s mention that this is the same Dallas defense that the Eagles hung 20 on. And the same Dallas defense that Washington hung 23 on. Just two games ago! Make no mistake, that defense can be, and will be, scored upon. Trust and believe.

Oh yeah, and that 20 points we scored last time? That, was when we were one-dimensional and unbalanced. Now we have a run game, and our play-action that has to be respected. We also have RB Darren Sproles back.

That was also before our own Defense simplified things, and when the Secondary was bleeding non-stop. We’ve tightened up a few things since then. Hell, this unit gave Adrian Peterson a 90 yard run and STILL held his ass under 100 yards rushing for the game. And then there’s SS Malcolm Jenkins...

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These are all facts that the pundits choose to ignore. That team is one game above .500, facing a team they barely escaped. No one is gonna say that though, because the Cowboys are big economy for the Niffle. But we ain’t layin’ down for nobody. Who want some, come get some!

So get your popcorn. Because this time around, it’s going to be a very, VERY different game.

So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Cowboys :

1) Control the clock: It’s hard to have many points scored on you, or to allow many yards, if the other team doesn’t have the ball. So grind out the game. The Cowboys don’t have the QB for scoring points in a hurry. Even if they did, they lack enough firepower to stress a defense, once their run game can’t be a factor.

2) Tackle: We were in position to make plays vs the run last time, and we just didn’t. Dallas doesn’t run a clever system. They don’t out-think anybody. They let opponents out-think themselves. Hit the run fits, and wrap up RB Ezekiel Elliott. That’s it.

3) Jeffrey, Jeffery, Jeffrey: Go deep to WR Alshon Jeffrey, not to WR Nelson Agholor. Not sure why the deep ball has vanished from this Offense, but Carson has to let his big man know that he still trusts him to win those 50/50 balls.

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4) Sit on it: To complement the run, Dallas likes to throw short, quick passes. Jump some of those routes. At best it’s a a pick six. At worst, we’ve t least got QB Dak Prescott not trusting his eyes and therefore holding the ball a little longer.

If we do all these things, we’re just about guaranteed to win. Now that we’ve covered what should happen, let’s get into what likely will happen:

(NOTE: The return of MLB Jordan “Cowboy Killer” Hicks has not been ruled out.)

Expect to start slow. It’s a road game, against a rested team, and they are still riding an emotional high. They will not fold quickly. Don’t get bummed over an early three and out. This game will be a war of attrition.

Dropfoot and Lederhosen Van Exxon (or whatever his name is) will look awfully funny trying to chase around Sproles in space. Good luck practically doubling over (at full speed) to make tackles on #43. As always, TE Zach Ertz will get his. RB Josh Adams seems brittle, so the Eagles may want to cede some work elsewhere so that another RB is in rhythm if Adams checks out early. So RB Corey Clement may see 8 or so carries this week.

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We notched 4 sacks against this team the last time we saw them and there’s no reason that number should fall with DT Tim Jernigan “in the mix” (as HC Doug Pederson said). Our last meeting also saw CB Rasul Douglas hold WR Amari Cooper to 75 yards. No reason to think it can’t happen again.

This time around the emphasis will be on finishing plays, not just diagnosing them. We played poorly last time and were STILL in position to win it late in the game. This time the Cowboys won’t be so lucky.

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(And yes, I know this clip is Reservoir Dogs.) 

PREDICTION: EAGLES 22 – Cowboys 20

yeah-bitch

2018 – COWBOYS

Posted by The BEAST on 2018/04/11
Posted in: Coaching, Defense, Draft, NFL, Offense, Players, playoffs, Preview, Reviews, Rivals, Roster, Special Teams. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

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LAST year… the Cowboys were 5 – 1 in the division and 9 – 7 overall, after finishing the prior year with an NFC best 13 – 3 record, followed immediately by a playoff loss. Total scoring for 2017 was 354 points for, and 322 points against. Which is about what you’d expect for a team just above .500. A case can be made that they had to deal with distractions, stemming from the looming suspension of a key starter, for six weeks.

That was last year. Keeping in mind that the Draft will change some of this, the following is a report on how the team looks today, prior to the NFL Draft….

OFFENSE

QB:

The 4 interceptions Dak Prescott threw in 2016, jumped to 13 in 2017. Throwing 13 picks in a season isn’t really cause for alarm. Especially since I warned last year that a regression was coming. I said the league was adjusting to him, faster than he was adjusting to the league, and he spent 2017 proving my point. His 2017 stats themselves are somewhat misleading (62.9%, 3300+ yards passing, 22/13, 86.6 rating). When you look at his performance game by game (or watching him play), it tells a very different story. It says that he’s basically just— You know, he’s still only going into his third year. One great year, and one not so great year. So this could be a bounce-back season for him, given the new toys he just got. Behind Prescott, sits preseason Hall Of Famer, Cooper Rush. Rush may get a chance to play in 2018 if Prescott can’t shake off 2017. Again, this may be a bounce back year for Prescott. So for now, let’s give the guy the benefit of the doubt. (+)

RB:

Having been suspended for six games, it’s only natural that Ezekiel Elliott would rush for fewer yards than in his rookie season. That’s to be expected under the circumstances. However, in the games he did play, he simply wasn’t as explosive as he was the season before. In 2016 he had (14) rushes of 20+ yards, and (3) of 40+. In 2017 he had just (5) rushes of 20+ yards, and (0) of 40+. Zero. His yards per carry went from 5.1 to 4.1. Some will say he was distracted. Others will point to his hard-charging style, and the 1,272 touches he’s logged (college and pro) since 2013. He may be young, but he’s still human, and so far it doesn’t seem as if any effort to preserve him is being made. Behind Elliott are Rod Smith and FB Jamize Olawale (Raiders). The Cowboys have fantasies of turning Smith into a threat as ball carrier, but he simply lacks the vision. Elliott makes this group passable, but if he gets hurt, this position goes off a cliff. (+)

WR:

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Dez Bryant vs Janoris Jenkins

As of the moment you read these words, Dez Bryant is still a Cowboy, but that could change by the time you finish reading this section. Like an aging beauty queen, Bryant is no longer able to get by on his physical talent alone. He’s hired a coach to help him refine all the parts of his craft, that he’s ignored for 8 years. However, until that bears fruit, he’s still an overpaid #2 receiver. Terrance Williams will probably find himself watching a lot of football with the addition of free agent Allen Hurns (Jaguars). Cole Beasley may also find himself on the outside looking in, with the addition of free agent Deonte Thompson (Bills). Both new players immediately upgrade Dallas’s ability to threaten vertically. As a group every one of them is either a fading star (Bryant), a chronic disappointment (Williams, Thompson), a flash in the pan (Hurns), or no one worth worrying about (Beasley, Ryan Switzer). This position has been in the toilet for a couple years now and until they prove better, there’s no way to grade them well. (-) 

TE:

Jason Witten is more of a blocker than a receiver now. He hasn’t averaged even 10 yards per catch in any of his last three seasons. He hasn’t had a reception of more than 35 yards since 2012. He’s a classy, high effort guy, but he’s no longer a threat. Spoken bluntly, he’s just in the way now. Back-ups Geoff Swaim and James Hanna are clearly unable to step up and earn the starting job. The hope is that Rico Gathers is done making the transformation from basketball player to football player. If so, he could be a match-up nightmare for years to come. (-)

OL:

Travis Frederick is doing a great job anchoring the pivot. After that, it gets a little bit… uneasy. This marks a second year in a row that the Cowboys have lost a LG. The solution being floated as a fix for that, is moving RT La’el Collins to LG, and placing free agent addition Cameron Fleming (Patriots) at RT. LT Tyron Smith played through injuries in 2016, and followed that up with struggling with his back in 2017. That doesn’t bode well for 2018, since injuries are cumulative and beyond Smith there is no depth. Yes, there are a couple of players, but they’re liabilities, as evinced by the 5 sacks Chaz Green was beaten for vs the Falcons. That’s not to say that the Cowboys are bad here, but they’ve clearly taken steps backwards. Passing: 28 sacks allowed in 2016, then 32 allowed in 2017. Rushing: 4.8 yards per rush in 2016, then 4.5 per rush in 2017. They aren’t huge steps backwards, but they are noticeable, and across the board. That being said, it’s still a pretty good line. (+)

In a nutshell:

Plenty of talent on this offense. However, it’s unevenly distributed, and there is no depth pretty much anywhere. It won’t take much to derail this unit, given the top-heavy way that it’s constructed. For the last two seasons, Dallas has avoided major injury to their skill players. If they can stay that healthy in 2018, things will be fine. (+)

 

DEFENSE

DE:

Demarcus Lawrence had big year in 2017, amassing 14.5 sacks after only having one in 2016. None of his prior three seasons resemble 2017’s performance, so it raises the question of whether this was a “contract year” thing. Tyrone Crawford is mostly a big body to eat space and occupy blockers, so other players can make stops. Vidauntae “Taco” Charleton was a first round pick last year, and yet another Draft Day gamble by owner Jerry Jones. Charleton has some athletic traits that the team hopes to harness. The only issue is, he may be more of an athlete than a football player. Randy Gregory (as of this moment) is still seeking to be reinstated, because he has more failed drug tests in his career, than career starts and sacks combined. (Just one sack in 2016.) Former Jet, Kony Ealy was added to the roster. Perhaps for depth? Aside from Lawrence’s 2017 season, this position is shrug inducing. However, since no one can prove that his 2017 season was a fluke, this position has to get the benefit of the doubt. (+)

DT/NT:

Maliek Collins is just a guy. If the Cowboys select at this position at any time in the Draft’s first three rounds, you’ll know who they want to replace. On the other hand, if David Irving could start 16 games, who knows what impact he would have on the Cowboys entire defense. The knock on him is his inability to stay on the field, (for a variety of reasons) over these last three seasons. Richard Ash is a big body, but he’s a career back-up. There’s enough talent here to make a few big splash plays during the year, but no one at this position is capable of doing it week in and week out. (-)

OLB:

Sean Lee offers no pass rush threat, and is an absolute liability in coverage on the outside. However, if he’s not on the field, the Cowboys defense loses the ability to function. Which is a shame, because he misses a lot of time. Damien Wilson started a career-high 9 games in 2017. (You go, boy!) He produced all of 35 tackles. Which sadly was also a career-high. The Cowboys have a few bodies here, but they’re all kick coverage types. (-)

M/ILB:

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Jaylon Smith started 6 games and grabbed 81 tackles. Not bad for a guy learning how to play with Drop Foot at the NFL level. Commendable effort. Great spirit. And an absolute liability in coverage. Not just that, but after a few weeks, teams learned what he does and doesn’t do well. After the Bye week he clearly hit a wall and never regained his early season form. The idea is to have him backed-up by former Packer, Joe Thomas. Given Smith’s visible ceiling, Thomas could surprise people and challenge for the starting spot. If that’s the case, then competition should sharpen the winner of this position. For that reason alone this position gets the benefit of the doubt. (+)

S:

Due to the play of Jeff Heath and Byron Jones, the Cowboys secondary wasn’t the easy target that everyone has become accustomed to in recent years. With a year of playing together under their belt, they can only be better in 2018. Xavier Woods adds depth and experience. It’s not flashy, and it can be easy to overlook, but this position is a sneaky strength for this unit. Totally legit. No benefit of the doubt needed. (+)

CB:

Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis ended last year as starters, after beginning the year as reserves. They’re young, which can be both a blessing and a curse. Neither man is exactly a ball-hawk. Anthony Brown played so well last year, that he was demoted after 10 starts. This position is very much still a work in progress. (-)

In a nutshell:

This defense is extremely vulnerable on the edges, because the CB’s are green, and the OLB’s can’t cover. They could gamble on the Draft coming to their rescue, but that has no bearing on this report, which about how they look as today. If Lawrence’s 2017 was no fluke, the Cowboys a least have a building block heading into the Draft. If it was just him trying to cash in, this unit is screwed. (-)

 

SPECIAL TEAMS

P:

Chris Jones is out there killing it. 66 punts and just 75 punt return yards. All. Year. Long. Oh yeah, and for the second year in a row, he ran another punt fake for 20+ yards.

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His punt average dipped from 45.9 to 44.1, but his net went from 40.5 to 41.4, so the team ended up better off. Just killing it! (+)

K:

After a career year in 2015, Dan Bailey has declined in each of the the last two seasons. After missing four games with a groin injury, he struggled with his Field Goal accuracy, going 8 of 13 over the final five games of the season. Dallas brought in Brett Maher, but NFL teams have been making use of him as a camp leg since 2013. So he has virtually no shot at the job. Last year’s review gave Bailey the benefit of the doubt. This year, especially given his steep decline, that cannot be the case. (-)

RS:

In 2017, WR Ryan Switzer averaged 8.8 yards per punt return, and brought one back for an 83 yard TD. He also averaged 25 yards per kickoff return, while amassing 600 yards. He’s no Brian Mitchell, but he gets the job done. (+)

In a nutshell:

Newly promoted Special Teams coach Keith O’Quinn, has to figure out his kicking situation. Aside from that it’s a quietly effective unit, that should continue to be one. (+)

Bottom Line:

Same story as always. Bunch of talent, haphazardly organized. Dallas spends too much time looking at the big picture, and ignoring small details. (An example would be Dez Bryant waiting this long to concern himself with route precision.) This team isn’t interested in “Why”, so they never learn, and keep getting in their own way. No team does it more. Their ability to score will give the feel of them being in every game, and having a chance to win the division. Their inability to stop other teams from scoring, will be why they won’t win enough games to win the division.

WHY ‘ZEKE REALLY GOT SIX GAMES.

Posted by The BEAST on 2017/08/12
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Fans, NFL, Players, Rivals, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

getty

Photo courtesy of Getty Images

EZEKIEL Elliott’s six game suspension is bullshit. Let’s get that part out of the way first and foremost. There have been NFL players and coaches (Tom Brady, Bill Belichik) who’ve done worse to the sport itself, and gotten little to no time for their transgressions. There have been players (Greg Hardy) given stiff sentences (10 games), that were reduced to less time (4 games) for admitting far worse than Elliott is accused of. So then, why the stiff sentence for ‘zeke? Why would the NFL want to make an example of Elliott?

The answer dear friends, is marketing. Yes. Marketing.

While advertising is the act of trying to sell a product, marketing is the act of trying to sell an image, or an idea. It’s an attempt to influence, or control thoughts and/or perceptions. Right now the NFL is trying to sell the idea that they are putting their foot down. But to whom is the NFL marketing this idea?

In the last decade, the NFL has made pointed overtures at female customers in the form of products for women, Breast Cancer Awareness, Team Camps for female fans, trying out female referees, and dozens of other small gestures to boot. Given that the U.S. has a larger female population than male, it only makes economic sense to play to the larger crowd.

That said, over the decades the NFL has repeatedly dropped the ball on issues regarding violence against women, and it’s treatment of the perpetrators. Generally those issues were greeted with shrugs from many players, coaches and even owners. Realizing that they’ve been slighting such a large market segment, the NFL is now at least trying to look as if it gives a damn. It is because of that, that Elliott got shutdown for almost half the year.

Despite the Cowboys boast of being “America’s Team” the reality is, there are 31 other fan bases out there, and all of them have female fans. The NFL was willing to piss off female Cowboys fans, in order to score points with female fans of the other 31 teams. Makes perfect mathematical sense.

Also it mattered who the NFL hit with this. Greg Hardy was a mid-level NFL star, already years into his career, who embraced, even cultivated his “bad-boy” image. A suspension to him just added to his “cred”. Elliott however, is a young, top level star. He’s young enough to have this and any other suspension, affect his next contract, and so he’ll have to stay on the straight and narrow. So this suspension now, will in a few years, look like the NFL hit him with some “act right”.

Again, this is marketing the idea to female fans, that the NFL can and now will, force even a star player to behave himself. Due to wanting to not hurt his next deal, Elliott has to walk a careful line, and so is now a built-in success story for Commissioner Roger Goodell’s idea of discipline.

There is a nagging question in the back of my mind however. Would this sentence have been for as many games were it against a non-Cowboys player? Given the Cowboys past (let’s call it) reluctance, to discipline their players, perhaps the NFL was sending the message that if it gets to the Big Desk, it will generate a bigger penalty. This seems like Goodell’s way of telling owner Jerry Jones, to mind his shop better.

How the Cowboys handle the next infraction will determine whether Goodell has made his point to Elliott, the Cowboys, and female fans across the NFL.