CLICK artwork for part two of the twelve part series.
Tomorrow’s subject: Strength.
Defense
JEFF Lurie may have fired Chip Kelly just in time. While “The Idiot Kelly” (TIK) may have given away some of our best offensive weapons, it’s not like he brought in guys like Reno Mahe to replace them. While TIK’s moves were generally downgrades, it’s not like we have empty shelves over here.
If you look around you’ll read a lot about the holes on our roster, and how big a job resurrecting the team will be.
Not so fast. We have some issues. That part is beyond debate. However, we’re far from being a long-term project. Whether or not the weapons we have can be dangerous, is more a matter of how we use what we have, and how we augment it.
First lets look at our problems:
If we re-signed every Free Agent we have, QB Sam Bradford would still scare no one, and our interior Offensive Line is dreadful. For years now, cute movement schemes have hidden C Jason Kelce‘s lack of power, but teams started to pick on him right out of the gate in 2015. So don’t expect anything better from him in 2016. Our starting Guards are decent back-ups, but on 3rd and 2 neither man is the guy you’d bet on to make a hole for your RB.
Defensively, odds are strong that we’re going back to a 4-3 front. Most of us think OLB Connor Barwin is a great guy, but anyone who knows football will tell you that he’s a bad fit for a 4-3. He isn’t strong enough for DE, and doesn’t cover well enough for OLB. For that matter OLB Brandon Graham is no better in coverage and may even actually be worse. (Graham however, can play DE.)
We have a number of holes and that 2nd round pick we gave away to get Bradford will hurt us in the Draft, but we can fix some of this before we spend the first red cent. The first thing we need to do is realize that the only way to get better is to rely on the Draft.
Where we’re strong:
We’re as deep as any team in the NFL at RB. And if you look around the NFL, no one is doubting that RB DeMarco Murray will bounce back in 2016. I can’t imagine that he’ll see 900+ yards again so long as he shares a backfield with RB Ryan Mathews, but who cares as long as they can sustains drives. We have some young talent and depth at WR, and now Jordan Matthews will get a chance to be the guy some of us know he can be. The West Coast Offense generally favors bigger wideouts and now we’ll get to see Matthews matched up on the outside.
If DE Vinny Curry comes back as a starter, we have the makings of a dangerous Defensive Line by playing Curry at LDE, Fletcher Cox at LDT, RDT Bennie Logan and RDE Graham. ILB Jordan Hicks can likely make the jump to MLB, and ILB Mychal Kendricks has already played SLB very well in his rookie year here. He also has the speed, strength and versatility to do it again. If Malcolm Jenkins stays at SS, Eric Rowe moving to FS only opens the door for CB Denzel Rice to push for the starting spot opposite Byron Maxwell. Maxwell might now get a chance to play in a scheme more like the one he was in as a Seahawk. He’ll never be a bargain, but now (in the economics of football), he might start being worth his contract. If we can re-sign Walter Thurmond (sanely), it only makes us stronger in terms of depth and when we have to play heavy Nickle or Dime. If we can’t keep him, well hey, that’s hardly the end of the world.
So don’t be too broken up over our roster. There are only tons of question marks if you lack imagination, and are stuck in TIK’s way of seeing these players.
Now here’s how you fix what’s broken:
Fixing the O-Line and QB:
Move RT Lane Johnson over to LT and slide Jason Peters inside to LG. Peters has had some trouble with quickness on the edge this year, but still is as strong as ever. Moving him inside allows him to mentor Johnson and maybe even mask some of Kelce’s power issues. Besides, it’s easier to build the right side of an O-Line than the left side, or to maintain chemistry when every other spot is new. Spend an early pick on a Guard and swoop around later for a RT.
At QB, let Bradford walk and sign Robert Griffin instead. He’ll be cheaper and has more incentive to sign here than anywhere else. Then you grab a rookie QB in the 3rd or 4th round. I’d like to take one earlier, but nobody in this draft who’s worth it will be there at 13, let alone 17th or 18th (HINT! HINT!) So don’t reach early. Better to build a line and take a chance on Griffin, or on finding a rookie gem. If Griffin gets hot early and we’re winning, keep playing him. If he falters or gets hurt, play the rookie. We’re either winning or developing our future. We win either way.
Fixing the Defense:
Resign Curry with (some financial) apologies for not starting him sooner. At WLB I roll the dice on Marcus Smith and spend a Draft pick. A guy like Smith had no business playing LOLB, yet that’s what he was tabbed to do under TIK. I make 2016 his last year here unless he proves something, but I hand him the rope to climb with or hang himself with. I don’t simply put him on the bench for a year, cut him, and leave questions out there about “what if”.
Fixing our missing second round pick and such:
Here is where you’ll need vision and imagination. Before you shoot this down, make sure you read through this part a second time. I’m trying to give you the large picture.
We pick 13th in the Draft. If we’re smart, we want to draft a Guard which we could get in the second round, except we don’t have a second round pick. Enter the Falcons picking 17th or the Colts picking 18th. Atlanta had only 19 sacks this year so they’ll be looking for another pass rusher. The Colts did better with 31 sacks, but still need a guy. We can offer both teams Connor Barwin and let them swap spots with us in round one, in exchange for their second round pick. Since the Falcons and Colts pick one after the other and need the same thing, I’d make the offer very public and put a clock on it. If they know each other is after that move up, there’s now pressure to accept our offer faster. We can’t use Barwin as a player, but we can use him to sweeten the pot. This way we get a second rounder, an open roster spot, his cap savings, and it only costs us a guy we can’t use anyway. Meanwhile they get a guy who’s still 29, proven in two places, with a contract that goes through 2019 with no crazy jumps in it. It’s a win-win. Besides, I’m sick of seeing us simply release talent that we can’t use. Why not get something for him?
QB Mark Sanchez packaged with one of our third rounders (80th) could net us the Texans 2nd rounder (53rd). He likely wouldn’t be a starter for them, but if they can’t get a decent rookie QB at #22 in round one, Sanchez is a much nicer fallback than another year of Brian Hoyer and/or Brandon Weeden.
I’d also try to get DE Taylor Hart, ILB Kiko Alonso, NT Beau Allen, and our fourth rounder (111th) out to San Fran for their third rounder (69th) and either C Marcus Martin or G Brandon Thomas, neither of which really fits what TIK does. Allen is just a guy, and Alonso’s knee has too much wear and tear for us to trust it the way TIK does.
So relax. We’re far from a dumpster fire over here. We need work, but there’s no reason that we can’t be ready to win the NFC East in 2016.
LIE and say that this hire excites you. I dare you to do it without bursting into flames. In all truth I can’t say I like it either, but until he proves us right, we the fans have to live with Doug Pederson as the leader of our beloved Eagles. I could sit here and rail against it, or what I could do is find something about it to like. Find something in it that I can root for each Sunday. When I looked there were already a couple of things that jumped out at me.
Doug Pederson is not a genius. That’s not sarcasm for he’s an idiot, that’s listing not being a genius as a strength. When both Andy Reid and Chip Kelly got here, they were already hailed as leading minds in their areas of expertise; and both men in some way or another attempted to reinvent the wheel in a game as straightforward as football. Pederson isn’t that guy, so his approach will likely be more traditional in nature.
Doug Pederson wasn’t a very good Offensive Coordinator. This year the Chiefs ranked 27th in yards. Last year they ranked 25th. The year before it was 21st. So every year they got worse under him. This means he isn’t going to be married to one side of the ball as his savior. In fact if anything, he’s a former OC who has learned (through his own failures) the value of a strong Defense.
Doug Pederson is a former NFL player. He can relate to players in a way that neither of our last two head coaches could have. He understands what it means to be benched, and can tell a guy that there is an upside to helping groom the man beneath him on the depth chart, as Pederson did for Donovan McNabb.
Doug Pederson has had no bad teachers. Pederson has spent his entire NFL career learning from Andy Reid, and still has his teacher’s brain to pick over stuff. What that will mean now, remains to be seen. However, at least no one can claim his education in and about this league is lacking. Which is a far cry from what I was saying when Kelly was hired.
Doug Pederson is under no illusions. He’s familiar with the Jeff Lurie/Howie Roseman dynamic. He even knows some of the talent that’s still here (Brandon Graham, Mychal Kendricks, Jason Kelce, Brent Celek, Riley Cooper, Fletcher Cox, etc.) . He knows the Eagles are a mess and it’s his job to clean it up. And he knows how the media and fans will be if he doesn’t.
So it’s not ALL bad. In fact there are some building blocks here. So while I’m not thrilled with this hire, I’m not going to belly-ache about it either. After spending three years not believing in Kelly, I’m STARVING for a coach I can get behind again. So I’m going to take a leap of faith based on these good signs and cast my lot with Pederson. No “if’s”. No “buts”. No hedging my bets.
I’m all in.
SUNDAY 1:00 Met Life Stadium East Rutherford, NJ
CHIP Kelly being fired and (giants coach) Tom Coughlin’s possible firing (or resigning), makes me think this game is all about losing to improve Draft position. As of today, 8 teams have fewer wins than we do and of all the 6 – 9 teams, we’ve only beaten two (giants and Saints), which would slot us at #11 overall if the Draft were today. Winning will only hurt that whereas we could move into the top 10 with a loss and some help.
There is nothing to be gained from a victory for two teams that have been eliminated from playoff contention already. This week the winner is the loser.
EAGLES
Defense
Our Defense…
Offense
Aaaaaand our Offense…
By the way, those aren’t water balloons. Those are watermelons.
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Giants
Defense
Jason Pierre-Paul‘s return to the club has not had as much punch as the team was grasping for when they re-cast him as a starter. Statistically they’re hands down one of the worst defenses in the NFL, as they’ve been unable to help the team hold onto leads. The worst part is it’s not just one aspect of the defense. You can’t just point the finger at the defensive line, or the secondary. Really it’s about time to blow the whole thing up. Until then, the end result is big thumbs off. I mean DOWN. Thumbs down.
Offense
They can throw the ball. All indications are that they can’t even run it in practices. The big story here is WR Odell Beckham returning from a one game suspension, after his complete emotional meltdown vs. Carolina over what have been referred to as “gay slurs”. Considering that players call each other EVERY NAME YOU CAN THINK OF out there, it will be interesting to see if our players try to bait him into another meltdown.
BOTTOM LINE
This week would be a great time to start guys like OLB Marcus Smith, S Jerome Couplin, TE Trey Burton, and RB DeMarco Murray again. If ever there was a time to get an assessment of what we have vs what we need to add, that time is now. If QB Sam Bradford were smart, he’d sit to prevent being injured on the cusp of being a Free Agent. If he sits, I’d like to get a look at 3rd stringer Thad Lewis.
PREDICTION
giants 17 – Eagles 10
OWNER Jeff Lurie wasted no time cutting out the cancer on his team. Former Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly didn’t even get a chance to coach the final game of the season, or give a farewell address to the players. I almost said “his players” but unless you played at Oregon, I have severe doubts that he has many (if any) players in that locker room who considered themselves “his” guys.
Considering how much of his coaching staff was handpicked to coach specific techniques for his system; and considering how many soft and candy-ass players he bought in here, there will be a lot of debris from the tear down that is soon to follow. So lets take a look at what it will likely mean.
The coaching staff will turn over. Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis may as well not even show up for all the good he’s done. Fans hate him, and as you know (if you’ve been following this website for the last two years), his system is full of bad concepts which teams exploit almost in their sleep. If we switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 it would make sense for the entire staff to go except for maybe Defensive Backs coach Cory Undlin. This unit was a train wreck before he got here and it’s hard to pin much blame on a guy for struggling within an already badly flawed system.
The worst part is the inability of this staff to develop our youth. Offensive Line coach Jeff Stoutland didn’t develop any of his second string charges into competent linemen, and even starting RT Lane Johnson is nowhere near where his potential suggested he could be when he was drafted. In the last two drafts we added WR’s Nelson Agholor in the first round, Jordan Matthews in the second round, and Josh Huff in the third round. While Matthews seems productive at first glance (145 catches, 1815 yards and 14 TD’s in two seasons) his production as you can see, has been HIGHLY erratic. Our WR’s mostly disappointing numbers (Agholor has 21 catches for 260 yards and a TD this year; Huff has 35 catches for 410 yards and 3 TD’s in two years) have more to do with poor coaching than anything else.
And then there’s the blatant favoritism. Would anyone care to explain why 2nd round pick DE Vinny Curry has never started a game in four years, yet DE’s Brandon Bair (FA) and Taylor Hart (5th round) have? By the way size isn’t the issue, as Curry is 279 to Bair’s 280 and Hart’s 281.
In fact, aside from Special Teams coach Dave Fipp, Running Backs coach Duce Staley, and the aforementioned Undlin, I’d broom the whole staff.
It also means that you can just about kiss goodbye to QB Sam Bradford. Kelly trading away a second rounder for him was almost the equivalent to the purchase of Manhattan. Lurie will likely want to air out the stink of that trade.
Player movement in a regime change is hard to predict, but when you bring in a new coach he usually arrives with a wrecking ball. So as for PLAYERS to package in a trade or let go of, the smart list looks like:
QB’s Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez: Draft a QB and get a back-up who can run the new system.
RB Kenjon Barner: He’s one dimensional and we’re loaded with the other three in a real system.
WR Riley Cooper: We never needed him. Eat the dead money and open up a roster spot.
TE Brent Celek: I love him but we need the cap space, and it’s time.
OT’s Jason Peters, Dennis Kelly, Matt Tobin: Peters is done (unless he moves inside) and the other two are disasters.
OG’s All but our starters: We need new starters but our current starters would be decent depth.
DL Beau Allen and anyone who played at Oregon: Cedric Thornton can rotate at DT in a 4-3.
OLB’s Connor Barwin, Marcus Smith: Barwin is good but doesn’t fit anywhere in a 4-3.
ILB DeMeco Ryans: Is more valuable as a leader than as an athlete at this point.
CB Nolan Carroll: I let him walk in Free Agency and let Denzel Rice push to start.
S Walter Thurmond and Chris Maragos: Move Eric Rowe to FS.
Again you don’t have to RELEASE all of these guys. Packaging and trading some of them with picks insures that we’d be in better positions to replace the players we can’t really use, with pieces that fit better. I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of seeing guys walk for nothing.
OVERHAUL. This team needs one badly. You may not want to hear that since overhaul sounds a lot like rebuild, but that’s what is needed here. Not a re-tooling, but a full-on rebuild. That is, unless you think of 2015 as being good enough for you. Assuming that Head Coach Chip Kelly comes back next year (and I am assuming that), I’m telling you, there are five things we must change between now and February 16th.
I use the date of February 16th because that’s when teams start to designate franchise players, which has a ripple effect on Free Agency and the rest of the roster. Consider how much money the Eagles have tied up in players like RB DeMarco Murray, and CB Byron Maxwell. Now consider that players with expiring contracts (QB Sam Bradford, FS Walter Thurmond, DE Vinny Curry and CB Nolan Carroll) will all want considerable raises to stay here. The Eagles need to have a solid idea of where they want to go, and how they want to get there, well before they begin shuffling and re-shuffling the roster.
The first thing we need to change is the place where this team’s General Manager powers reside. The current holder of those powers (if not the title) has demonstrated beyond the shadow of a doubt and/or reasonable dispute, that he has no clue what he’s doing. He was hired to be an X’s and O’s genius. So, okay fine. Let’s allow him to spend his time doing that. If we’re going to hold onto him for another year, we should at least make sure we’ve given him every chance to succeed, before we deposit him on the curb.
The second thing that needs changing are some of the coaches. Defensive Coordinator, Offensive Line, and Wide Receivers are the one’s that need changing ASAP.
A) Our Defense isn’t conceptually OR technically sound, That’s largely why over the course of three years we haven’t been able to beat playoff caliber teams.
B) While certain outfits may use funny metrics to give grades to units, the bottom line is this Offensive Line crumbles against good teams because Jeff Stoutland clearly emphasizes scheme technique over fundamental technique. That’s largely why we aren’t developing any of our young linemen into decent pro players.
C) Speaking of not developing talent, Wide Receiver started off bad and has only gotten worse. With all the recent high picks we’ve spent on WR’s, I don’t buy that all of our WR’s lack talent. I think what they lack is refinement of their game, as none of them display any knack for craftwork. That is clearly the failing of position coach Bob Bicknell. It can be laid at the feet of no one else on the planet Earth.
Also I’m not sure what this team is paying our Offensive and Defensive Quality Control coaches for. Maybe those guys have never actually shown up to work. Either way, we either need new ones, or to eliminate the position altogether, because to this point they do absolutely bupkis for this team.
The third thing that needs an overhaul is the Offensive philosophy. The Offense needs to be slowed down so that the Defense doesn’t end up being fatigued by game 9 or 10. We’ve seen this thing run the same way for three years now and we can empirically say it doesn’t work. It has to change.
The fourth thing that needs changing is the Defense. The only thing wrong with our Defense is everything. While we do have a handful of players that we can build around like DE Fletcher Cox, DE Curry, SS Malcolm Jenkins, ILB Jordan Hicks and LB Mychal Kendricks, (and possibly NT Bennie Logan if he shows he can play 4-3 DT), almost every one of them would be far more effective in a 4-3.
The fifth thing that needs to change are the practices. They simply are too fast-paced. Players are lining up week in and week out, and showing the same weaknesses week in and week out. That says that either they aren’t being shown what they keep doing wrong, or they don’t get enough time to digest the coaching they receive. For example: If you’ve ever bought a new tool, you already know what it’s for, but you play around with it for bit, just to get the feel of it. Especially if it’s replacing something you’re really used to. While the tool may belong to you, it takes more than just buying it to make it yours. Same thing when you hand a man a new skill, or teach him to do something like cleaning up his back pedal, or how to use penalties to gain separation. A man needs reps to truly own new coaching.
So there you have it. The five things that need to change before we start signing players to god knows what system, for god knows how much money. Set a clear direction and clear the path to make the journey easier. Because all this stumbling around bullshit, simply has to change.
SATURDAY 8:25 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
PLAYOFF football starts tomorrow night in Philadelphia. If we don’t win this game, the next one is mere formality. A win doesn’t automatically put us in the playoffs, since we’d still need to win the last game; but a loss means the team can head back to the locker room, shower, and then start throwing their shit in Hefty bags.
EAGLES
Defense
We have a bunch of fatigued players, some of whom are overpaid, all of which are playing in a bad scheme. You can only expect so much at this point in the year. If Defensive Coordinator Billy Davis had any ideas for shoring up this unit, you’d have seen those ideas three years ago. At this point, we are what we are until he’s fired.
Offense
QB Sam Bradford had his best statistical game as an Eagle vs the Redskins, and that was before he was said to be “getting comfortable” or “turning a corner” within this Offense. Only attempting 18 rushes is how the Head Coach Chip Kelly handed a win to the ‘skins in our first match-up this year. If he repeats such a formula and we lose, it will be time to run him out of town on a rail.
There is no reason this team should perform worse in this game than we did the last time we faced this defense.
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Redskins
Defense
The good news is that the ‘skins can be run against. They aren’t soft, but they are overly aggressive and allow teams to find room to run against their 3-4 front. OLB Ryan Kerrigan is of course leading the team in sacks with 8.5, but his counterweight OLB Trent Murphy isn’t producing at the rate the team was hoping for when they decided they could release Brian Orakpo this offseason. The ‘skins are active and aggressive, but they aren’t as tough or tough-minded as they purport themselves to be.
They can be had.
Offense
The last time we faced QB Kirk Cousins, he pretty much did anything he wanted to do, and that was with WR DeSean Jackson inactive with a hamstring issue. Jackson is back and he’s playing on a tear. While the ‘skins have struggled to run the ball all year, they did a pretty handy job running against us in our first meeting this year.
There is a potential bright spot as in recent weeks it’s been easier to get to Cousins than it was earlier this year. The only knock on that bright spot is that even when you get in his face he’s still completing passes over the 70% mark.
BOTTOM LINE
It would be smarter in the long run to lose this game and put ourselves in position for the team to get better pieces to build a stronger future. Instead, what’s going to happen is this team will come one step closer to winning the division which will sandbag ourselves in the arms race vs. our rivals.
PREDICTION
EAGLES 26 – Redskins 20
SUNDAY 8:30 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
ODDSMAKERS across the spectrum expect the Cardinal to come into the Linc and leave holding up a “W”. They almost make it seem like it’s an automatic. However, with having to face Green Bay next week, and then division rival Seattle the following week, Arizona may be looking past our 6 – 7 team just enough to let down their guard.
EAGLES
Defense
Did you know that even after these last two games, our Defense is still ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed, 21st in points allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed. Due to three huge (two of which were scoring) plays made by our Special Teams in the last two games, we are 6 – 7 instead of 4 – 9. It’s great to get to get great Special Teams play, but you can’t bank on splash plays by that unit to bail you out every week.
Teams are still moving the ball and scoring against our Defense. There will be no “fixes”enacted this deep into the season. We are what we are. That said, I have no idea how this unit is supposed to stop or even slow down this weeks opponent.
Offense
Depending on who you talk to, this Offense is either about to seriously rev up, or continue to do what it’s done all year, which means being a lower mid-level offense (15th rushing, 21st passing) coached by what was supposed to be a genius.
Optimists will tell you that QB Sam Bradford has only thrown 2 interceptions in his last 5 starts. They tell you that over that span he’s gone 3 – 2. They leave out the fact that in those 5 starts he’s only thrown 5 touchdowns. Conversely, this weeks opponent in his last 5 games, has 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. (He also has 2 lost fumbles). Over that span he’s 5 – 0. One of those guys has numbers which all but lock up a division. The other is a 13 million dollar mistake.
So this week we’ll play “Guess The Starter” at RB, cross our fingers that LT Jason Peters can string together a whole game, pray that C Jason Kelce doesn’t snap the ball past the QB, hope for a meaningful contribution from either Josh Huff or Nelson Agholor, and cringe when WR Jordan Matthews gets hit in the back after running yet another 4 yard crossing route.
Ahhhh, good times.
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Cardinals
Defense
#7 vs scoring, #5 vs the run. They can reach your passer and they have a shark tank of a secondary that can take the ball from you. There is no standout pass-rusher unless you count DE Dwight Freeney. (Yes, that Dwight Freeny) Then again not many people would call 4 sacks by Week 15 a standout number.
At first glance they look water-tight, but there’s a chink in their armor. They play a 3-3-5 concept that they mask as a 3-4. They do that by playing a 211 pound SS at ILB. (It’s not dissimilar to what we used to do last year when trying to take advantage of Nate Allen‘s Safety speed when they played him in the box.)
As a result of using a SS at ILB it means they can be out powered in the middle of their defense. Put bluntly: This is a game that is right in the wheelhouse of RB DeMarco Murray. Now let’s see if he gets the ball.
Offense
I read years ago that QB Carson Palmer sees passing lanes like he has ESP. That statement has echoed in my head ever since. Every time I see him throw a WR open, I feel a sense of bitter envy for something most Eagles fans don’t even realize they’ve been missing out on for a quarter century. If you’re one of those “I only watch the Eagles” type of fans, you have no clue what we’re even missing.
This offense spreads you out, and has a run game component that takes advantage of spacing. It’s the grown-up version of what we run, without all the gimmicks thrown in to try and deceive. As it was designed to engage in weekly shoot-outs, they average 31 points per game and have actually rung that bell 7 times in 13 games. So that 31 point average isn’t the result of a fluke game here and there. These guys can actually get the pig to the pen.
BOTTOM LINE
Winning a shootout with this team is highly unlikely. If the Eagles are going to win this game, we have to find our offensive consistency and run the ball up the gut. I don’t like the match-up of our QB vs their secondary, but their LB’s can be exploited in coverage. I like the idea of TE Brent Celek on intermediate routes to loosen up the box and give the run room to get push inside.
Is that the way to go? Certainly. Will Kelly draw up such a game plan? Not likely. We could beat the Cardinals by out-toughing them, but that’s not how this team is built to think.
PREDICTION
Cardinals 29 – Eagles 19
SUNDAY 1:00 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
BOTH the Bills and the Eagles need this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. The 6-6 Bills are hoping to win out and for some other teams to give them some help to secure a wild-card berth in the AFC. The Eagles have to win the division to see the postseason. This one should be a lot of fun to watch if both teams show up with empty bellies.
EAGLES
Defense
Yes, last week DID happen, but if you’re still excited about it then you really haven’t taken a GOOD look at it. In a game that featured a very beat-up Patriots team, their QB still managed to throw for over 300 yards and score 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing). We even let him have a 36 yard reception, just for shits and giggles. Oh and they averaged 4.1 yards per rush.
So while last week was a great win to have, it was more the result of a handful of splash plays. It was by no means a sustained effort by a Defense ranked near the bottom of the NFL in points allowed (25th), yards allowed (26th), passing yards allowed (24th), and rushing yards allowed (27th).
After watching this unit allow 90 points over a two week span, it’s hard to go out on a limb and play the optimist over a few plays in one game.
Offense
I have no idea what our Offense is like now. Apparently RB DeMarco Murray is no longer a factor here. My guess (and at this point a guess is all it is), is that returning RB Ryan Mathews will be the lead dog that he was expected to be when he was originally signed ahead of Murray this Spring. For too many reasons Kelly couldn’t be serious about a backfield headed up by RB Darren Sproles.
WR Miles Austin was cut 7 months too late for it to make a difference in 2015. I said this move should have been made back in May. Had it happened back then maybe you’d be happily wearing a Nelson Agholor jersey right now. (BTW: If you happen to be wearing an Agholor jersey right now, you have my condolences for the money you parted with.)
I’m seeing fans now are back on the bandwagon for QB “Super” Sam Bradford again, after his 14/24 – 58% – 120 – 2TD game against the Patriots. There are some numbers out there that suggest that he’s getting better suited to the Offense, and if you’d like to buy into those, be my guest. They however overlook a far more important metric that once seen, cannot be unseen and will give you the most accurate picture of Bradford.
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Bills
Defense
There’s really nothing great about this unit. In fact they make me think of the “Bend but don’t break” style that Buffalo played in the 90’s when they were thwarted in an unprecedented four straight Super Bowls. That 1990’s team had better players than this 2015 edition and even they had up and down results with that style of defense.
Basically I think the Bills 6 losses this year have more to do with their defense than anything else. They get interceptions, but they don’t get to the QB much. The little pass rush they do generate will likely be compromised if (lead interceptor) CB Stephon Gilmore misses Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.
Offense
This unit is one of the best kept secrets in the NFL. They’re 4th in rushing and 10th in scoring. They have QB Tyrod Taylor who sports a 17:4 touchdown to interception ratio, and is averaging 5.0 yards per rush. To top it all off, they have enough depth to squeeze by rough patches that would derail an entire season for most teams. Not that they need it since they’re also a pretty healthy bunch to say they’re heading into their 13th game.
Though they have some strong points, this unit is not without it’s weaknesses. They will allow defenses to touch their QB, and their 3rd down conversion rate is only 36%. The biggest weakness though is WR Sammy Watkins.
Yes. I said Sammy Watkins. Read on.
For all his talent, there are too many games where he just seems like he’s going through the motions. By all rights this guy should be killing defenses on a weekly basis, but he spends too many Sundays just running his routes. He’s been on a tear these last couple weeks, but that’s no guarantee that he shows up looking to really play this Sunday. I for one, hope that he doesn’t.
BOTTOM LINE
I think this one comes down to coaching and styles. Bills coach Rex Ryan will come in looking to impose his will on our Head Coach. When teams commit to pounding the ball at us the losses tend to be humiliating. (New Orleans 2013, Minnesota 2014, Tampa Bay 2015 for examples.) I have no idea what Kelly will be looking to do, but the real question here is whether or not he’s willing to adapt and adjust in-game. And in three years I have seen no reason to believe that he will.
PREDICTION
Bills 26 – Eagles 21
SUNDAY 4:25 Gillette Stadium Foxboro, MA
THE Eagles enter this game with a record of 4 – 7, and still mathematically in the hunt for the NFC East crown. A road win over a 10 – 1 Patriot team, would get a lot of fans believing in this team’s ability to win the division. Not every fan. Maybe not even most of them, but a lot of them. There is no team in sports that I hate they way I hate the Patriots, and a win in their house would be awesome, but to win there you need to find some weakness to exploit.
EAGLES
Defense
I feel like even the Phillies could suit up and score touchdowns on our Defense. Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis basically told every team in the NFL to put their #1 WR on our Defense’s right, because CB Byron Maxwell can’t be moved from the left side. Last week against the Lions, Davis sacrificed rookie CB Eric Rowe to save Maxwell from having to leave his comfort zone.
There are so many things so fundamentally wrong with this Defense that it would take far less time to mention what they do right. For instance in the last two seasons we ranked 32nd and 31st vs the pass. This year we’re only ranked 20th. Then again in those other season we were tough to run against. This year we’re the 5th worst team in the NFL vs the run. It’s why only four teams see more rushes against them. Why throw it when you can just run it?
Offense
This team is 20th in the NFL in scoring. (That statement has me itching to start laying blame, but that’s not a what Preview is for.) Our Offensive Line has allowed 13 sacks over the last 4 games, including the the one that injured QB Sam Bradford.
We’re 12th in rushing but it’s up and down. We not very good at throwing the ball, running the ball or blocking for the guys doing the throwing and the running. There really isn’t anything this team can hang it’s hat on as a rally point, and no player is stepping up and saying “It’s on me”.
Patriots
Defense
Their 4-3 front is stable and sets the tone for the rest of the unit. The unit gets after the QB, as 20 of their 35 sacks are owned by the starting defensive line. They’re also ranked 11th in the NFL against the run, allowing only 97 yards per game. The Secondary has 10 pick to this point. While that’s not as many as we have, the Patriots more stable form of defense means they don’t need turnovers to perform well enough to help their offense.
Offense
QB Tom Brady has thrown 28 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. RB LeGarrette Blount has almost 600 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. That said, Brady enters this week missing his top 4 receivers due to injury. A few cleverly disguised coverages could cause communication problems between Brady and the targets he now is forced to rely on.
Right now not having his usual weapons means Brady has to take chances that he normally wouldn’t. A smart team should be able to exploit that weakness. Let me repeat that louder. A SMART TEAM SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPLOIT THAT WEAKNESS!!!!
BOTTOM LINE
If the Eagles can find some weakness to exploit and win this one, great. But I’m not delusional. I have absolutely no reason to expect that they can beat a more talented team, with a better coach, on the road, after quietly laying down at our opponents feet for three straight weeks. I just hope the Patriots don’t break the scoreboard.
PREDICTION
Patriots 54 – Eagles 13
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 