Any idiot can say “Hey let’s sign every high-priced Free Agent on the market”. The 12 focuses on what we can do with what we already have, to fix or improve our team.
************
DEFENSIVE Coordinator Jim Schwartz’s has already been an NFL head coach. It wasn’t a good showing, but it was only Detroit, so folks will be willing to grant him a pass. With that in mind, you can expect that any time his unit finishes in the top 12 in points allowed, some team or another will to try and steal him at the end of the year. Get comfy with that reality.
So it would be nice to have a successor, right? That way we don’t end up in the situation we ended up in, when DC Jim Johnson* passed (from melanoma) in 2009. At that point we got stuck with his assistant, Sean McDermott, who tried to run a version of Johnson’s blitz-heavy system. Johnson’s real expertise lay in being able to make tiny adjustments to his scheme.
McDermott lacked that touch. He lasted one season and was fired. A mess ensued after that, Jim Washburn,Juan Castillo… (be nice if we could forget about that one, right?)
SO! We need to be ready for the day that Schwartz goes all Frank Reich on us. I personally like LB’s Coach Ken Flajole. He was a DC under Steve Spagnulo for three years, and that unit performed solidly, given that they were saddled with (just about) the NFL’s worst offense.
This is provided we want to promote from within, and hit the ground running with a DC who already knows the players.
*Jim Johnson’s name appears in green, bold, italics like current Eagles, because he was an Eagle when he passed. This is also why Jerome Brown’s name is bolded, but Reggie White’s and Andre Waters names, usually are not.
HEAD Coach Doug Pederson warned you when he said “as you know, the nature of the business is you can’t keep everybody. It’s just the way it goes.” So when certain players start hitting the cutting room floor, don’t act like you didn’t see it coming. Let’s look at WHY we have to lose some people, and who we may lose.
And don’t get mad at me. This is just math. You’d have to be pretty stupid to argue with addition and subtraction. Let’s get to it!
The 2018 season has a salary cap of $178M. The Eagles have $3.7M in roll-over money from 2017. Those two numbers combined, gets our adjusted cap up to $181.7M. That’s the good news. The bad news is, our top 51 contracts (plus dead money), total $186.6M. That leaves the Eagles with negative $4.87M.
In order to get under the salary cap, we have to either convince a number of players to play for less money (restructuring), trade away some heavy contracts, or cut our way to savings. Those are the three options.
Restructuring off of a Super Bowl win is highly unlikely. In fact, some players will want raises. So then who do we have to cut or trade? How do we make $4.87M (4.9M) in cap space?
Well first let’s look at who’s got a large base salary, but won’t hurt us in dead money, if we cut them. I didn’t say we wouldn’t miss their talent if we cut them, I said it won’t hurt us as far as the dead money penalty.
Those players are WR Torrey Smith($5M base/zero penalty), DE Brandon Graham ($6.7M base/$1M penalty), C Jason Kelce($6M base/ $1.2M penalty) and TE Brent Celek ($4M base/$1M penalty). Those four players represent $21.7M in salary and only $3.2M in penalty money. That’s $18.5M in cap savings, right there.
Smith and Celek are natural cuts, since Smith carries no penalty, and word is that Celek may retire anyway. Combined, they free up $8M in cap space. That would get us out of the hole, and even put a little spending money ($3.1M) in our pocket.
Graham represents $5.7M in savings, but he’s also our best DE. So moving him likely does far more harm than good. So that move is out.
Kelce represents $4.8M in savings if he’s cut, but if he’s traded for a pick, to a team like sayyyyyy, the Buffalo Bills (HINT HINT), we’d save the entire $6M. (Remember when moving Kelce was a hot topic in early 2017?) Kelce, plus Smith, plus Celek would get us to $9.1M in cap space.
Given the way he ingratiated himself with the fan base at the Super Bowl parade, moving Kelce wouldn’t be popular right now. However, given the Eagles extending C/G Stefen Wisniewskilast year, and the futures signing of C John Toth just last week, it’s clear that the Eagles are actively looking at the C position. (And if you think Wiz’s extention was so the Eagles could lock up a Guard, consider the presence of Isaac Seumalo, Chance Warmack and Darrell Greene. Wiz isn’t here to stay at Guard.)
Having $9.1M in cap space (Kelce/Smith/Celek) would help us re-sign some of our own Free Agents like TE Trey Burton or OLB Nigel Bradham. However, adding another $7.6M to the pot would allow us to be aggressive. That’s the amount we’d re-coup if the Eagles trade QB Nick Foles for picks instead of a player, getting us to $16.7M.
Having $16.7M brings back Bradham, rescuing an already thin LB corps from becoming a blood-spurting wound. It also opens the door to keeping Burton or DT Beau Allen, and maybe even RB LeGarrette Blount.
Or instead of Foles, we could trade FS Rod McLeod for a day two pick, and save $6M. Then our cap space would look like $15.1M, with McLeod replaced by say CB/S Jalen Mills. That scenario also would enable us to keep Bradham and so forth. So there are options.
In any case, the Eagles will probably piss off a lot of fans in the next month or so. That’s not for being stupid, but just to get the books out of the red. So be ready for it, and remember where you heard it first.
We spent two weeks hearing how the Patriots QB was going to single-handedly carry his team to victory. The media (showing an inability to learn), basically said that the “scrappy” Eagles would only be speed bump on the Patriots way to a 6th ring. Well, seems like Super Bowl MVP, QB Nick Foles(28/43 – 65.1% – 373 – 3 – 1) didn’t quite agree with that assessment. In the end, the Patriots bitch of a QB, ran off without even shaking Foles hand.
Speaking of hands, the Patriots attempted to throw a pass to their QB early in the game, but he proved to be… Let’s say “less than clutch” in that situation.
OOPS!
Later on, Nick Foles would not only catch a pass, but catch a a touchdown, off a one yard pass from TE Trey Burton (1/1 – 100% – 1 – 1 – 0), on a honey of a trick play:
(I told you that Doug was gonna hunt these fuckers.)
Former Patriot RB LeGarrette Blount(14 – 90 – 6.4 – 1 – 0) won a second consecutive Lombardi, by splitting carries with RB Jay Ajayi (9 – 57 – 6.3 – 0 – 0). That helped balance the offense and kept New England’s defense honest. Not to be counted out however, was rookie RB Corey Clement (4rec – 100 – 25.0 – 1) who led all Eagles in yards from scrimmage with 108.
Defensively there weren’t a lot of “stats” to talk about. The one sack allowed all night proved to be fatal (for New England), as DE Brandon Graham (2 – 1.0 – 0 – 1) forced a fumble in the process. Rookie DE Derek Barnett (0 – 0.0 – 0 – 0) didn’t get cute and simply recovered the fumble. After rookie K Jake Elliott(2/3x, 3/3, 46) added a 46 yard field goal to our 38 -33 lead. it pretty much snuffed out any realistic chance for any last minute heroics. That left the Patriots hoping for a miracle. Miracles however, require good karma to occur. And so naturally the Patriots lost.
I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these “Four Things” articles. We introduce an idea of what needs addressing BEFORE the game, so that fans have to honestly answer questions about those things, AFTER the game. This helps to get us, and keep us, all on the same page.
So, of the Four Things we were looking for in this last game, what exactly did we see?
1) Work the middle: Be it TE Zach Ertz (7 – 67 – 9.5 – 1) diving across the goal line (for a score); Corey Clement cornholing an over-matched LB (for a 22 yard score); WR Alshon Jeffery(3 – 73 – 24.3 – 1) going up and grabbing a 34 yard score; or WR Nelson Agholor(9 – 84 – 9.3 – 0) on a crossing route, the Eagles made sure to work inside. That kept the Patriots from loading the box, and allowed our top 2 RB’s to average 6.4 and 6.3 yards per tote. (DONE)
2) Destroy the pocket:Not nearly enough pressure was generated inside for most of the game, which would be forgivable if we also hadn’t allowed 113 yards on 22 carries (5.1 per tote), mostly up the middle. The fact is, that this area of the defense has fallen off since mid-season and we need to find a way to turn it back on by July. (NOT DONE)
3) Blount. Force. Trauma: LeGarrette Blount was the games leading rusher in terms of yards and carries. It was his best game since November, and in my view, his best in an Eagles uniform. The man has been a monster for these playoffs and it irritates me that he has likely played his last down as an Eagle.(DONE)
4) South Paw Switch: To be fair, I didn’t really expect this to get done, since it isn’t actually DC Jim Schwartz’s M.O. to make wholesale changes at the half. It would have however, kept the Patriot from outscoring us 21 -19 in the second half. (NOT DONE)
Well,2 out of 4 Four Things was good enough to get the “W” this week, and bring our playoff tally to 9 of 12. Usually this is where I’d mention the next opponent, but this officially brings us to the end of this season’s road.
There’s nothing left to do now, but celebrate at the parade which will begin Thursday at 11, on Broad and Pattison, heading north up Broad before swinging up the Ben Franklin Parkway to the Art Museum steps. (Isn’t it funny how we say “The” Art Museum, even though Philly has a few of them?)
On The Whole:
I told you that HC Doug Pederson was going to be aggressive vs New England and boy was he ever. We had an internationally televised brawl, with the NFL’s last champion, and we TOOK from them what was rightfully ours.
We started with the Draft at the Art Museum in April, and we’ll end it with the Super Bowl parade ending at the Art Museum in February. The football gods have smiled upon Philadelphia for the 2017-2018 season. Despite adversity, despite injury, we were smiled upon. Recognize that and be grateful, fellow fans. Recognize that and be grateful.
Let this stand as a lesson to you. Just because someone doesn’t believe in you, or thinks they know your situation, don’t you ever, EVER stop believing and working for your dreams.
YES. The Eagles can beat New England. I’m not saying that I think the Eagles can beat them. I’m saying that I know we can beat them.
In fact, we beat them the last time we faced them 35 -28. We went on the road as a 4 – 7 team, while they were 10 – 1. And we won. In their house. We started QB Sam Bradford, and they started the fella they’ll start Sunday We were playing in an ill-fitting 3-4 defensive scheme, vs the stifling 4-3 front that we play today. We were also being coached by an idiot.
Everything about us is better than it was when we faced them last time. So we can beat this team. That’s not a wishful opinion, that’s a matter of fact. Banish from your minds, ANY other notion.
Just ask Dawk:
During the playoffs, our victories have been 15 – 10 and 38 – 7. Our margin of victory has grown, indicating that we are getting stronger as our opponents have gotten tougher. Conversely, New England’s victories have been 14 – 35 then 20 – 24. That trend indicates that things are getting tougher for them as they move forward.
The media wants to frame this as a battle of two QB’s, but it isn’t. This is a battle of two teams, and the Eagles are the better balanced, deeper, more talented, and hungrier team. Keep in mind, no amount of media sycophants, verbally polishing the knob of New England’s quarterback, will put a single point on the board on Sunday. New England will have to earn any point they score. And our Defense isn’t known for giving points away. (8.5 per game. IN the playoffs).
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Patriots:
1) Work the middle:New England is solid at CB, but everything else about their pass defense isn’t very good at all. They’re going to want to take away anything quick and easy for QB Nick Foles, which has a way of opening up down-field passing, if we can protect long enough. If they want to put their Safeties against WR’s Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith, let’s make them regret it.
2) Destroy the pocket:New England’s interior offensive line is on the small side. Technique and raw brute power should be used by DT’s Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan, to invert the pocket and ensure that we don’t have to pass rush with more than four players. Every ounce of effort must be left on the field at this position.
3) Blount. Force. Trauma: RB Jay Ajayi is the starter, but we need RB LeGarrette Blount running behind RG Brandon Brooks and RT Lane Johnson this week. New England likes to start 2 LB’s and 3 DB’s, because their LB’s can’t cover for shit. If they want to play small, then we should use 12 Personnel (2 TE’s) and run off-Guard at their smallish DE’s.
4) South Paw Switch: New England does a good job of making adjustments at the Half. So DC Jim Schwartz should throw out the first half gameplan and switch it up entirely in the second half. Fake a number of front-side blitzes in the first half; then bring them off the blind-side in the second. Single-high, with 8 man fronts in the first; Man-press Cover Two in the second. Start out Tyson, then switch to Ali. Let them out-think themselves. Turn their greatest strength into an insurmountable liability, before they can even realize what’s happening to them.
If we do all these things, we’re just about guaranteed to win. Now that we’ve covered what should happen, let’s get into what likely will happen:
Head Coach Doug Pedersonis gonna hunt these fuckers. If you don’t think he’s going to come out swinging, then you haven’t been paying attention this season. Expect aggression. This game is unlikely to be decided by the foot of rookie K Jake Elliott.
New England will attempt to take away anything quick and easy for Foles. When they do, they’ll have to drop guys into coverage instead of sending extra rushers. If they can make Foles hold the ball, they’ll expose LTHalapoulivaati Vaitai, and push Foles to his right all night.
If I know this, then our coaching staff knows this. So look for that to be built into the game plan. We’ll find ways for Foles to deliver the ball down the field, and eat up chunks of field inside with WR Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz, vs those LB’s that can’t cover. I’m also keeping my eye out for a backside Screen to RB Corey Clement, which could prove devastating to New England.
In order to tone down our pass rush, we’ll probably be tested with a couple of middle screens and delayed hand-offs early on. That’s fine. Even if we get gashed a couple times, it’s important to pick up on how they want to key those this week. If we see them early, we’ll know how to shut them down later.
Middle Screens be damned! We’ll need that penetration from our DT’s. I expect DE’s Brandon Graham andVinny Curry to set hard edges, while playing the run first. That will keep the RB’s inside the box, where all the help is. While the opposing QB can scramble, he’s no match for the speed of OLB’s Nigel Bradham and Mychal Kendricks.
Facing pressure, New England’s QB is as human as anyone, and so can be be forced into making mistakes with the ball. That’s bad news when you’re facing a Safety like Malcolm Jenkins. Or a CB like Ronald Darby (4 picks). Or a CB like Patrick Robinson (3 picks). Or a Safety like Rod McLeod (3). Or a CB like Jalen Mills(3).
Don’t be fooled by the media hyping up a QB and TE. Step back and look at their WHOLE team. Not two guys, but all of them. Overall, they’re an average team that plays great against inept teams, and not nearly as good against decent-to-good ones. Only two teams in the league gave up more yardage this year. That’s not the mark of a champion. That’s the mark of an average team. Hell, maybe even a bad one.
Look, who told you IN 2014 that we needed to fire Bill Davis for a Super Bowl? This guy.
Who told you IN APRIL that we were going to win the East this year? This guy.
Who told you IN DECEMBER that there may be a QB controversy next Fall? This guy.
Who told you IN THE FIRST ROUND not to worry about Nick Foles? This guy.
Who’s telling you NOW that the Eagles will win the Super Bowl? That’s right. THIS GUY.
SUPER BOWL!!!!! What did I tell you? I said, Minnesota doesn’t belong in the playoffs. I said, this game will be about which Eagles team shows up. I said, during the Bye Week that the only playoff team I fear is Philadelphia. Now look at us. ONE WIN away from winning our first Championship since 1960. One win away from hoisting one of those annual replicas that our rivals are so fond of.
Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery scores on a 53 yard bomb from QB Nick Foles. Image courtesy of Philadelphia Daily News
EAGLES 38 – Vikings 7
The Vikings went down the field for a touchdown on the game’s opening drive, running the ball as well as they would all night. Then the nightmare began.
Your beloved Eagles responded with 38 unanswered points, as we dominated, harassed and humiliated Minnesota’s defense that (I’d heard) was the best in the NFL. Didn’t look like much to me. Or apparently to our Quarterback.
QB Nick Foles(26/33 – 78.7% – 352 – 3 – 0) put on an absolute clinic, dissecting (what we’d all been told was) the NFL’s second-rated pass defense. Well no, that’s not fair. The Vikings did seem very second rate out there.
RB Jay Ajayi (18 – 73 – 4.0 – 0 – 0) found creases to run in, which helped us move the chains and set up manageable 3rd downs. That led to a 3rd down conversion of 71% (10/14). For the second game in a row, RB LeGarrette Blount (6 – 21 – 3.5 – 1 – 0) found paydirt early.
WR’s Alshon Jeffery(5 – 85 – 17.0 – 2) and Torrey Smith(5 – 69 – 13.8 – 1) gave the Eagles the sort of outside deep threats, I’d been looking for since Week 1. Foles heaved touchdown bombs to each man, (53 and 41 yards, respectively). It was almost enough to overshadow TE Zach Ertz(8 – 93 – 11.6 – 0) who had a beautiful 36 yard catch and run, that set up a 38 yard Field Goal by KJake Elliott (5/5x, 1/1f, 38) to end the first half.
Those are great numbers, but it was the Defense that won this game. They put a lid on the Viking’s offense after that opening touchdown. On the very next possession, CB Patrick Robinson(2 – 0 – 1 – 0) intercepted a pass and took that tasty treat back 50 yards to cancel out Minnesota’s only lead of the night.
Rookie DE Derek Barnett(2 – 1 – 0 – 1) got our only sack of the game and forced a fumble (pictured), which was recovered by DE Chris Long (2 – 0 – 0 – 0). Safety Corey Graham (5 – 0 – 1 – 0) intercepted a dropped interception attempt by CB Ronald Darby (7 – 0 – 0 – 0) who had a serious impact on the game with that interception, and the block which sprang Robinson on his interception return.
I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these “Four Things” articles. We introduce an idea of what needs addressing BEFORE the game, so that fans have to honestly answer questions about those things, AFTER the game. This helps to get us, and keep us, all on the same page.
So, of the Four Thingswe were looking for in this last game, what exactly did we see?
1) Stop the run: We held the Vikings to 70 yards on 18 carries.(DONE)
2) Challenge their defense:At no point did Nick Foles shy away from attacking and turn into Captain Checkdown. Even better, the playcalling wasn’t trying to protect him. That 41 yard flea-flicker to Smith was outright ballsy; as was that double-faked handoff to set up a Middle Screen. The Eagles didn’t show a single ounce of fear and decided to make the Vikings earn everything. (DONE)
3) Collapse the pocket:The Eagles got good pressure throughout the day, but we didn’t get nearly as much up the gut as I was anticipating. This is likely why the sack production was so low this week.(NOT DONE)
4) Speed Kills:
There were a few deep throws by Foles in this game. Better still, there were a few completions for scores. The idea was to challenge Minny’s corners and make them earn their reps. They weren’t up to the job. At least not against the Eagles. (DONE)
This week we went 3 out of 4 in Four Things, which brings our playoff total to 7 of 8. There are a couple of things we need to clean up in the next two weeks, before our SUPER BOWL re-match with New England.
On The Whole:
This was a great “get your confidence” game. I think Nick Foles NEEDED a game like this. It’s one thing to have your teammates say they believe in you, it’s a completely different thing to give them a reason to believe in you. No one is going to make Nick Foles the favorite over New England’s QB, but at this point people understand that Foles is not to be taken lightly.
We need more explosiveness from our run game. Ajayi gets the starting nod due to Draft pedigree, but he seems less explosive, and isn’t as good at catching the ball, as RB Corey Clement(2 – 20 – 10.0 – 0 – 0). Ajayi also doesn’t have a great nose for the endzone.
Our interior pass rush
has to show up next week or our odds of winning drop significantly. If we can stop New England’s QB from stepping up to deliver the ball, and make him come off of his first read, our odds or winning almost crack the ceiling.
LET’Stake this one step at a time. People here are consumed with the term “underdog” but then they look right past Minnesota. I’m not sure if that’s irony or outright hypocrisy. In any case, Minnesota should get our full attention this week. We need to focus our positive energy on our team, and our negative energy on our opponent.
Win and we’re in. There’s no assist from Mother Nature this week, so it seems Philly fans will be the only X-factor that the Eagles can rely on. We’re going to need it, because dumb luck has seems to be on Minnesota’s side this season. Whether it’s last second fluke plays, or having the fewest number of key players on I.R., they’ve had a cushy road up until now. So we need sauce for the goose.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Vikings:
1) Stop the run:We need to put this game squarely on Minnesota’s QB’s shoulders. To this point he’s been lucky even when he’s makes mistakes. His coach even said so in November, telling a reporter “…he’s got a horseshoe right now.” Look at last week… 40 attempts and his only TD is on that goofy last play? C’mon! Enough! Let’s see him put that offense on his back, and go toe-to-toe with our Defense for 30 minutes.
2) Challenge their defense:Might sound nuts, but watch Minnesota’s defense, and you’ll notice that they generally rush 4 linemen, and keep 2 LB’s in the box. (Like most teams their 3rd LB may split time 50/50 with a DB.) Those 2 LB’s don’t immediately drop into coverage. They “float” for a second looking for the run and to discourage any underneath “Cross” or “In” routes. That floating also allows them to react quickly to “Hitch” routes and even lets them help on “Slants” and “Screens”. In short, they don’t give you anything quick and easy. It’s not “clever”, it’s plain genius. But it has an Achilles Heel. If either of those LB’s are forced to cover a RB “Wheel” or a TE “Out” route, the defense loses integrity and allows the QB time to find an open man down-field, or even scramble for a quick 4 – 5 yards. QB Nick Foles averaged 8.2 yards per pass against Atlanta’s vaunted Cover Three last week, and this scheme is a lot simpler to read. Oh yeah, Minnesota is also small on their left side, so a 2 TE formation gives their opponent an easier time running inside.
3) Collapse the pocket: DT’s Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan
should have a field day on Sunday. (Bit of trivia: Of Minnesota’s starting offensive linemen, the only one they spent a draft pick on, was their C, in this year’s 3rd round.) Minnesota’s interior o-line was already kind of ho-hum, but with the loss of G Nick Easton, they’ll have to rely on a back-up with almost no upside. He’s also 6’6 with a tendency to play tall. At Guard. If we take away the middle, it shuts down the run, and puts their QB within arm’s reach of a forced fumble by our DE’s.
4) Speed Kills:Given how few balls Minnesota’s CB’s have intercepted this year, I can’t understand why anyone fears them so much. In fact, given CB Xavier Rhodes 3 pass interference to 2 interception season, I think forcing him to get grabby against WR Torrey Smithis a recipe for free yards and easy points. Make these son-of-a-bitches work for it. Enough of these guys being allowed to cash in on a rep that they haven’t really earned.
If we do all these things, we’re just about guaranteed to win. Now that we’ve covered what should happen, let’s get into what likely will happen:
This game will be decided by which Eagles team shows up. The Vikings don’t matter in this equation. They can’t win this game unless we hand it to them. Period.
When the head coach is telling the media that the QB has been getting lucky, something’s wrong. When that same head coach is telling the media that the QB that he just activated from I.R. stands a chance of replacing the starter, something’s wrong. When the offensive line has less depth than a kiddie pool, something’s wrong. When you telegraph your play selection by which RB you have on the field, something’s wrong. There is plenty wrong with Minnesota. However, half a year of playing Mitch Trubisky (twice), Brett Hundley (twice), Deshon Kizer, Jameis Winston and the 2017 version of Joe Flacco, has a way of masking any deficiencies.
Minnesota doesn’t belong here, but we have to take them seriously, otherwise we beat ourselves FOR them. They’re scarcely a playoff team, so they damned sure aren’t a Championship team. Our Eagles need to be about the business of setting that record straight. If this team comes out like the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, then the Minnesota Vikings 2017 season is a wrap.
UNDERDOGS. That’s what we were. Despite being 13 – 3, the #1 seed in the NFC, and having home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, we came into the game as an underdog. In fact, no #1 seed, playing at home had ever been an underdog in NFL history until someone decided that, we were over-matched and could not defend our home turf. Well. We saw how that shit ended, didn’t we?
Matt Ryan sacked by Rod McLeod. Courtesy Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
QB Nick Foles(23/30 – 76.6% – 246 – 0 – 0) didn’t have a stellar game. All he did was distribute the ball in a saavy, veteran manner, to eight different receivers. He did not push the ball downfield much. Then again he was playing against Cover Three, so why would he. That’s why I said what I said in Four Things. (More on that, down the page.)
While no Eagles Offensive player seemed to do much damage statistically, there were enough collective moments, to sustain a couple of long drives and put points on the board. RB Jay Ajayi(15 – 54 – 3.6 – 0 – 1/ 3 – 44 – 14.6 – 0) was the workhorse and looked much better than his yard per carry average indicates. Same with RB LeGarrette Blount(9 – 19 – 2.1 – 1 – 0). WR Alshon Jeffery(4 – 61 – 15.2 – 0) led the Eagles in receiving yards, catching three of his passes on one drive. That proved that he can find a rhythm with Foles, so should put those questions to sleep now.
DTFletcher Cox(7 – 1 – 0 – 0) was a terrorist out there.
Cox spent the game blowing up the interior of Atlanta’s offensive line, recking their inside run game and not giving QB Matt Ryan(22/36 – 61.1% – 210 – 1 – 0) a pocket to step up into, most of the time.
The biggest killer in the game however, was K Jake Elliott(0/1x, 3/3fg, 53L).
His five wittle piggies put up the last 9 points of the game, which helped the Eagles capture the lead and then surge ahead.
I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these “Four Things” articles. We introduce an idea of what needs addressing BEFORE the game, so that fans have to honestly answer questions about those things, AFTER the game. This helps to get us, and keep us, all on the same page.
So, of the Four Things we were looking for in this last game, what exactly did we see?
1) Run. The. Ball: I said we need to run it at least 25 times. There were 27 called (i.e. non-QB) runs to 30 passes. We won time of possession 32:06 to 27:54, gave our Defense time to breathe, and limited Atlanta’s opportunities to score points. (DONE)
2) A thousand cuts:High percentage passes to the TE’s outside of the numbers. Foles said, okay, and I might do you one better! Not only did he get TE’sZach Ertz(3 – 32 – 10.6 – 0), and Brent Celek (1 – 6 – 6.0 – 0), but he also hit Alshon Jeffery 4 times and snuck in 5 passes to RB Corey Clement(5rec – 31 – 6.2 – 0). Why not? With Atlanta playing Cover Three, it left things like Slant routes, Screens and Crosses open. Foles isn’t flashy, but he is saavy. Teams thinking he’s harmless is probably his deadliest asset. (DONE)
3) Alter the launch: The idea was to get Matt Ryan to throw while moving or resetting his feet. We did that quite a bit (thank you Fletcher Cox). The hope was to get a turnover or two out of him. Well, we didn’t get a turnover, but what we DID do was hold him to 5.8 yard per attempt. That matched his lowest mark of the year, during a Week 4 loss to Buffalo. (DONE)
4) Stay grounded:It’s points like THIS ONE HERE, that separates me from other would-be experts. Nine days ago, the NFL and it’s media bag were praising, lauding, exalting Los Angeles Rams coach Sean McVay, for being such a young genius. Such a prodigy! Wait no, it was “coaching supernova”. That’s what they called him. And then there’s this-
His career mark is 11-6! It was amazing that they could speak with that much of his shaft in their collective windpipe.
Then what happened last week? He got locked into a close game against the Falcons, panicked because he’s as green as peas, and stopped running the ball, even though his team was doing it better. Experience counts! Our coaching staff is battle-tested, so even when we were down, even though our average run (on paper) was 3.0 yards per carry, we stuck with it. We stayed grounded. We stayed balanced. (DONE)
At half-time I wasn’t sure about some of these, but Nick Foles has a nice second half and in doing so, helped the Eagles deliver a 4 out of 4 Four Things score. This will be out well before we know who our next victim is, so I can’t really offer a tempting tidbit for next week yet.
On The Whole:
It was more grit than glitter. More spit than polish. War of attrition, is what I called this game after the half. This game was about will. It was about who wanted it more, and who had the players who could seize the moment.
In the end (as I said), we were deeper and more talented. The Falcons were no match for us. They were never going to be. While some will point out that we only scored 15 points, we also only allowed 10. Meaning we only needed 11.
I told you not to worry about Foles, didn’t I?
Foles isn’t a Lincoln Continental, he’s more like a Buick LaCrosse. As an Eagles QB, he’s been solid and efficient. Trouble is, solid and efficient are not sexy adjectives, and people like their QB’s to be attached to sexy adjectives. The actual problem isn’t the QB. It’s people perception of him, despite the fact that in Eagles green, he’s 18 -11 (.620) as an Eagles QB. (That’s about 9.9 wins per 16 games.)
No single Eagle won this game. There was no outlandish performance by any one player. This was a team effort. That’s how this team has won 14 games this year. It’s how they’ll keep winning. This year.
PHILADELPHIA returns to the postseason with a home game against last year’s Super Bowl loser. After a 13 – 3 regular season run, the Eagles have secured home-field advantage, in the pursuit of becoming NFL Champions.
For the Falcons this is unfinished business. Last year they were up 28 – 3 over New England in the Super Bowl, before they ran out of energy, fell apart, then imploded, self-destructed, and shit the bed. The slack-jawed Falcons would go on to lose 28 – 34, after surrendering 31 un-fucking-answered points. (Man, I hate the Patriots.)
Their 2017 season has at times included bits of that same falling apart, imploding and self-destructing. While they can be a dangerous team, they are frequently their own worst enemy.
For the Eagles this is about Next Man Up. Despite over half a ton (1,383 pounds) of injuries this year, the Eagles kept winning games, and overcoming adversity. Having lost QB Carson Wentzto a torn ACL, veteran Nick Foles will step in to do his best Jeff Hostetler impression.
Just to drive that point home, here’s a look at Hostetler’s 1990 playoff run:
Stop worrying about Foles. The Eagles are a complete team, and can only be done-in by poor execution. As long as the Eagles bring our “B” game or better, we’ll walk out of this thing with the “W”.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Falcons :
1) Run. The. Ball:Nick Foles isn’t a once-in-a-generation type of QB. He’s a complementary piece. This isn’t a bad thing to realize, it’s a bad thing to ignore, once you’ve realized it. The load for beating playoff caliber defenses cannot be shifted entirely onto Foles shoulders.
Let’s get north of 25 carries. We were the NFL’s #3 rushing team this season. However, in the last 4 games we’ve run the ball 28, 25, 23, and 17 times respectively. In each game we’ve run less, and each game has been harder to win as well. I sense a connection there.
2) A thousand cuts:MLB Deion Jones is Atlanta’s leading tackler and best cover LB. He’s also undersized (222 lbs.), and they only carry 3 DT’s. Because of that, I’d hammer Atlanta with the run and keep Jones in the box and out of coverage. Since their OLBs are poor in coverage, I rip them up outside the numbers with high percentage passes to TE’s Zach Ertz and Trey Burton(not WR Nelson Agholor), to freeze Atlanta in their base defense. The idea being to deplete their edge pass rush, catch their CB’s peeking back at the flat, and physically exhaust their front seven. (Like in the Super Bowl.)
3) Alter the launch:Most of the time hitting a QB is effective for getting in his head. That trick doesn’t always work so well with (local product) Matt Ryan. What’s needed is to change his launch point and delivery. Atlanta’s (overrated) receivers don’t do a great job of adjusting for balls, and they are prone to mental lapses. For example:
Ryan cares about the small details more than his teammates do. Over the years that’s been abundantly clear. Lucky for us that makes him easy to frustrate. (Lord knows what resentments he harbors from his team’s practices.) While sacks are nice, beating the hell out of him won’t net us as much tactical advantage, as simply forcing him to move his feet, change his delivery, and make him feel like he’s all alone out there. Thus allowing us to corrupt their passing offense at the source.
4) Stay grounded:The Rams lost to the Falcons last week because they couldn’t keep a cool head under the pressure of the moment. At no point was that game out of hand, nor were the Rams hopelessly behind. But while Atlanta kept their (non-QB) run/pass ratio at 33 to 30, the Rams had a ratio of 16 to 45. What’s funny is that the Rams were having a much easier time running than the Falcons (7.2 ypc vs 3.2 ypc), but still it was the Falcons who stuck with it. Once more and with feeling: They stuck with it! They didn’t panic. They stayed balanced and grounded.
That’s what we need to do this week.
If we do all these things, we’re just about guaranteed to win. Now that we’ve covered what should happen, let’s get into what likely will happen:
Saturday’s forecast calls for a breezy 50 degrees, with showers. Rain is something that dome teams seldom handle well, and “breezy” takes on a different meaning when it whips through a stadium. Add on top of that, 66,000 (mostly Eagles fans), in full throat on whenever Atlanta’s offense is on the field. The cherry on top of that, will be DT Fletcher Cox, already pissed over the media’s perception of his team:
The Eagles will come out of the gate full of nervous energy, but the weather will help us offset any initial jitters. However, after the jitters wear off, the weather will still be there, the ground will still be wet, and with the Eagles being the better team, Atlanta will feel the game start to slide away from them.
The Falcons defense is athletic, just not athletic enough nor deep enough, to defend against a bevy of Eagles offensive weapons. On the flip-side, the Falcons only have a couple of weapons worth fearing on offense, and the Eagles have more than enough depth and skill-sets to compete, Even if wholesale adjustments need to be made. Few teams can boast that. Especially after so many injuries.
THE QUESTION that most Eagles fans have is: How will Nick Foles look out there? The answer is that Foles has been a very solid QB, when he plays for the Eagles. Especially when he plays at home.
Since 2013, Foles is 9 – 2 when starting at the Linc. His one regular season “loss” (note the sarcasm), was two weeks ago vs Dallas. His other loss, was in our 2013 playoff game vs the Saints. He completed 69.7% of his passes for 2 TD’s, with nary a pick or a fumble, in what ended up as a 24 – 26 loss.
I’m hardly worried about Foles. If you’re smart, you’ll stop worrying about him too. As back-ups go, we could scarcely be in better hands. If things around him operate efficiently, then he has the potential to be downright dangerous.
GENERALLY when I talk football, it’s about our Eagles. I tend to keep mum about our rivals, unless we have a game coming up against one of them. Otherwise I’ve reserved most talk about them for my Pre-Draft Preview which drops each April. (Look for it.)
In 2017 however, I decided to try something new, and give our fan base a running commentary of what the division is doing around us. This (along with other local sources) helps ensure that Eagles fans ARE the best informed and most knowledgeable fans in the NFL, and not just laying a bullshit claim to it. These updates will come out three times during the season: After Weeks 3, 9, and 15.
*This wasn’t the announced 2017 format, but I was inventing this as I went. Here in 2017, this last one is coming out after the season ends.
Things got so out of hand on this team, that they fired their coach Ben McAdoo and GM Jerry Reese, during the season. The giants hadn’t made a move like that since the 1970’s. That’s how bad the ownership thought this mess was. Before McAdoo left the building however, he managed to leave a lasting scar on the giants history by benching QB Eli Manning and breaking his streak of 210 consecutive starts. Seemingly just because he could.
The giants leave 2017 in a state of total disarray. Offensively, they’re 31st in scoring (15.4ppg), 21st in yards (314.2ypg), 19th in passing (217.4), and 26th in rushing (96.8). Defensively, they’ll close the year hurting across the board, as they’re 28th in points allowed (24.2), 31st in yards allowed (373.2), 31st in passing yards allowed (252.4), and 28th in rushing yards allowed (120.8). There is nothing in New York that isn’t broken at this point.
Luckily for the giants, they’ll have the #2 overall pick in the 2018 Draft. While there are a number of areas to address on the team, they have to do something about the LT spot on their line.Ereck Flowers is over-matched pretty much week in and week out. Until they can stabilize their offensive line woes, there will be a repeat of 2017 just waiting to happen.
Washington Redskins:7 – 9, 3rd in the NFC East
In April of 2017, I said this was a 6 win team. As you can see, I was clearly way off the mark. The Redskins are a team that is rotting from the inside because of their front office’s approach the concept of team-building. I mean that in every possible facet, that it can possibly be meant in. From how to spot a player who can help, to how to build depth, to how to get guys to rally together, the ‘skins suck at all of it. Just ALL of it.
Thanks to QB Kirk Cousins, for whom they have no appreciation, the ‘skins offense was 16th in scoring (21.4ppg), 16th in yards (324.9ypg), and 12th in passing (234.4ypg), despite him dragging around a 28th ranked rushing attack (90.5ypg). Their poorly conceived defense, did exactly what poorly conceived things tend to do. It fell apart. That left them ranking 27th in points allowed (24.2), 21st in yards allowed (347.9), 9th in passing yards allowed (213.8), and DEAD LAST at 32nd in rush yards allowed (134.1).
While the option to stick a third consecutive franchise tag on Cousins does exist, it would be the same sort of poor team-building that this team had been guilty of for the last (how long has Dan Snyder owned the team?) many years. The pass defense improving from 25th in 2016, to 9th in 2017 may fool the Redskins into thinking they can apply their 13th overall Draft pick elsewhere, but the truth is they need a Strong Safety.
Dallas Cowboys:9 – 7, 2nd in the NFC East
In April of 2017 I picked the Cowboys to be the second best team in the division. How ‘bout them predictions?!Cowboys fans will want to blame the team’s record on the 6 game suspension of RB Ezekiel Elliott, but that’s just ignoring some pretty damning facts:
First: Over the six games without Elliott, Dallas averaged 121.3 rushing yards per game. Dallas ran the ball 152 times for 728 yards and a 4.7 yard per carry average. Elliott himself only averaged 98.3 yards per game this year and 4.1 per carry.
Second: Elliott averaged 26.8 touches per game this year. Projected over 16 games, that works out to a whopping 428 touches. This would have been after a 354 touch rookie year. He’s young, but dammit, the kid is still human! This suspension may have very well helped saved him from Dallas overusing him, and burning him out young. Ask Larry Johnson,Natrone Means and Barry Foster what 400 touches can do to a RB’s relevant longevity.
Third: Dallas’s ground game was anything but unreliable during those six weeks. Dallas ran the ball effectively in every game. What they couldn’t do well (even after Elliott returned), was pass effectively.
The numbers on offense? They were 14th in scoring (22.1), 14th in yards (331.9), 26th in passing (196.3) and 2nd in rushing (135.6) Defensively, they finished 13th in points allowed (20.8), 8th in yards allowed (318.1), 11th in passing yards allowed (214.1) and 8th in rushing yards allowed (104.0). All respectable, middle of the pack numbers.
You can point to pretty much any area of this team and say that the 19th overall Draft pick would be well-spent there. Others may say that TE Jason Witten needs an heir, or that Dallas could use a shutdown Cornerback. I’m going to say the The defense is Jekyll and Hyde based on the presence of LB Sean Lee and he has a tendency to miss games. If he were to be lost during 2018’s preseason, you could basically write the season off. That’s why they need to draft an OLB whose eyes are faster than his feet.
*****
So, that’s the state of our division rivals as your Eagles gear up for our Divisional playoff game. Just a quick run-down of who does what well, and why they’re at home watching us play this weekend. Cheers!
WHICH team do I fear in the playoffs this season? Who will be the toughest test, for Head Coach Doug Pederson? Everyone has a team that they fear for some reason or another, and I’m no different.
Most fear the Minnesota Vikings, but I’m not entirely sure why. Yes, they have a good defense. Other than that, we’re talking about a team that’s been held to fewerthan 17 points, 4 times. They’ve also played 2 games against the Bears (rookie QB), 2 games vs the Packers (no Aaron Rodgers), and had games against the Browns, Redskins, Buccaneers, and Bengals. Seriously, that’s half a season worth of gimmies! That’s 8 – 0 because the sun came up. The rest of the way they were 5 – 3, but just 1 – 2 on the road vs this season’s playoff teams. Minny is a dome team, and has played 11 of their 16 games either in a dome or in warm weather. Readers who don’t live in or around Philadelphia may not know this, but Philly’s winter weather isn’t likely to do the Vikings any favors.And if you do live in Philly, just look outside your window right now. Dome team. ‘Nuff said.
Many fear the New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees and RB Alvin Kamara. Thrown in a defense that has improved steadily for two years, and the Saints are actually respectable opponent. That said, they suffered 3 of their 4 losses, on the road, and played 14 of 16 games either in a dome or in warm weather. Our last playoff game was a home loss to the Saints in cold weather, but keep in mind, we were being coached by an idiot (TIK) who proudly ignored basic pro football wisdom, and then was out-coached by a guy deliberately employing Football 098 tactics, just to show him up in front of the nation. Well, we’re no longer being coached by an idiot.
Some fear the Los Angeles Rams. We beat them in a shootout that QB Carson Wentz played most of, before tearing his ACL. This time around we have Nick Foles in the pilot seat. While Foles is no Wentz, he is still more than capable of leading this Offense. Also, perhaps our Defense might show up for this game, unlike the last time we played the Rams. Oddly enough, the Rams on the road were 7 – 1, and so were better than the 4 – 4 they were at home. However, given that they won’t receive a Bye week, I’ll wait to see if (and more importantly how) they survive the first round, before deciding if I’m concerned about them. They concerned me during the regular season, but I’ll need another look at them before deciding if they warrant that again. However, if you put a gun to my head and asked me if I’m concerned about them today, I’d have to say that I’m not. This time we have a real MLB, and won’t be starting and playing most of this game in the Nickel.
Atlanta. Yeah, no one fears Atlanta. It might be wise not to stand to close to them, since they have a tendency to self-destruct, and we don’t want to get any of their stank, on us.
Which brings me to my point. The only team I fear in these playoffs.
It’s the Eagles. That’s it.
We’re a team that can pump on all cylinders. Offense? We put up 30 per game. (23.5 under Foles, even if you subtract the defensive TD vs Oakland). Defensively we hold teams to 18 points per game. Our Special Teams has repeatedly proven themselves as clutch and/or pivotal this year. So we can do it all.
Instead of being a team that is offensive or defensive, we’re complete on all THREE sides. As long as the Eagles bring even our “C” game, at the very least we’re going to be in the game until the very end (See: Chiefs and Seahawks). If we bring our “B” game or better, we’ll be sending teams on long, quiet plane rides to clean out their lockers.
No. I don’t fear any of the poor suckers who have the misfortune to come visit the NFL’s best football team. The only thing I fear is the Eagles executing poorly. As long as that doesn’t happen, no one is coming into OUR HOUSE and leaving it with a win.
Dome team. ‘Nuff said.
Many fear the New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees and RB Alvin Kamara. Thrown in a defense that has improved steadily for two years, and the Saints are actually respectable opponent. That said, they suffered 3 of their 4 losses, on the road, and played 14 of 16 games either in a dome or in warm weather. Our last playoff game was a home loss to the Saints in cold weather, but keep in mind, we were being coached by an idiot 
Some fear the Los Angeles Rams. We beat them in a shootout that QB 
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