CLICK artwork for part three of the twelve part series.
Tomorrow’s subject: Linebacker.
Offense
All posts tagged Offense
DISASTER or heartbreak? Which one do you want? If you’re a Sam Bradford booster, you’re about to be force-fed one or the other. As a fellow Eagles fan I’ll almost feel bad for enjoying your misery. Almost. Because the truth is, I’m sick of folks making excuse after excuse for this guy. The shorthand says that I’m supposed to be a fan of any Eagle on my team, but I can’t support a guy who is a big part of why it got worse instead of better.
Let’s start with heartbreak. Bradford’s boosters are sooo happy, that he’s sooo comfy with the system now. “His play has turned a corner!” “He’s become a leader now!” “Just wait until 2016!” That last one is my favorite by far, because it ties together the overarching theme of what the boosters are thinking. They expect Bradford to perform better within this system next year. They actually expect him back here next year.The odds are so stacked against that, that it’s almost ridiculous to envision it at all.
(Let me set the mood: Back when we drafted WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy in 2009, both players alluded to their injury histories playing a role in deciding to enter the Draft early. They wanted to ensure some level of financial security in case the next football injury was their last. As young men still playing college ball, their football mortality was already on their minds. Now back to Bradford.)
After his second ACL injury, Bradford was considering quitting football. He was weighing it as recently as this calendar year. It was his college coach who talked him out of walking away from his NFL career. So after collegiate injury to his shoulder, and two pro injuries to his knees, you can bet your ass that financial security is very much on the mind of Sam Bradford. But how much security could he get?
Today Bradford is at the end of a rookie contract where he made 13 million this year. He gets to be an unrestricted Free Agent in just a couple of months, and in a league desperate for signal callers, Bradford on the open market could become a bidding war between the Eagles and teams like Dallas, Cleveland, San Francisco, Houston, possibly the Jets, and maybe even St. Louis again. So perhaps you think we should franchise him to keep him from entering the open market at all?
Franchise tags are the average of the top five contracts at the position, right? That would mean Aaron Rodgers (22M), Russell Wilson (21.9M), Ben Roethlisberger (21.8M), Eli Manning (21M), Phillip Rivers (20.8M). That works out to 21.5M for Sam Bradford next year even on a short-term deal. You may recall that the Eagles were trying to get Bradford to sign an extension during the preseason, but Bradford shot that down because he could see a bigger payday coming if he stayed healthy.
If the Eagles don’t pony up the cash for him, Bradford’s boosters will see him flee Philly over “just money”. All that time they spent defending him and piking him up as the Messiah, only to have him leave them standing at the altar over “just money”. I can already smell the burning jerseys.
Next up we have the disaster. Let’s say that the Eagles write that check. Hooray, right? Only if you’re a masochist. Serioulsy, 21.5M a year for a guy who’s never thrown more than 21 touchdowns in a 16 game season? 21.5M for a guy with fewer playoff wins than Tony Romo?? 21.5M for a guy who has never been on a .500 team??? It would just be 8M more than he’s making this season, but considering how much guaranteed money is tied up in other players, signing Bradford would mean that so much of the roster would have to be bargain bin level players.
Bradford has never proven that he’s a special QB. He has never demonstrated an ability to carry an NFL team. Seriously, when was the last time you heard of a QB attempting 59 passes in a single game with only one of them being a touchdown? His mediocrity is almost statistically impossible. Still, desperate teams will bid for him next year, and whoever gets him will be overpaying and limiting their teams options for adding help.
That team could be us! Oh goodie.
So either the Bradford apologists will have their hearts broken over “just money”; or they’ll get their wish and have to admit this time next year, that they spent the last two years backing an expensive lemon. A lemon whom we may be stuck shoveling years worth of guaranteed money into.
So it’ll be heartbreak or disaster. Either way, find yourself a Bradford booster to follow and screenshot their posts often. Because man, this one oughta be good.
NOW that Quarterback Sam Bradford has had his inevitable injury (told you), this team has a chance at winning this loaded diaper of a division. It was hard for some to hear me over all the noise of people rubbing their faces on Bradford’s jockstrap after just 15 preseason passes. However now that we’re 4 – 5 behind his starts, and now that he’s injured again, Eagles fans are looking to hear a voice of reason. You’re looking for a reason to believe our season isn’t over. Well relax. Our season just got started.
Mark Sanchez is by no means a great Quarterback. No one would ever confuse him with a (healthy) Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, or even Phillip Rivers. (Deflators don’t make my list.) However, what Sanchez is, is the best QB the Eagles currently have under contract; and yes, by that I’m saying he was the best QB we had on Opening Day.
Despite having a year’s experience in this system, there were a number of factors that led to Sanchez riding pine behind a guy who struggled with executing the offense. Between not trusting his body and not being comfortable with his players or the system, Bradford kept looking to take the easy way out, time and time again. As a result the Offense stalled and sputtered under him.
Say what you want about the red zone interception that Sanchez threw last week; the Offense hummed with him out there. There was no hint of the typical falloff that happens when a back-up comes into a game with only a few warm-up throws under his belt, 9 games into the season. Imagine next week with a week of first team reps under his belt.
No one is predicting that we’ll put up 30 points per game under Sanchez, but don’t expect us to dip far below the 25 per game we averaged under Bradford. Then again….Hell maybe we will post 30 per game under the Sanchize. In Sanchez’s 8 starts (4 – 4) last year, the Eagles averaged 30 points per game. In fact we hit that 30+ mark, 4 times. In Bradford’s 9 starts we’ve done it all of twice, one of which required Overtime. Would an additional 5 points per game help us out? That spread would have helped us defeat the Falcons, Redskins and Dolphins, and would have us running away with the East at 7 – 2 instead of down third at 4 – 5. (But I’m just saying is all.)
I won’t even go into the differences in their mobility.
I will bring up something else I like about Sanchez over Bradford, and it’s not something that shows up in a box score. If you screw up, Sanchez will get in your face about it. As a former player I love that. When it’s you that screwed up you don’t always like hearing it; but being immediately accountable has a way of waking you up and making you assess yourself faster. If you give a damn about being better,
You saw what happened out there earlier this year when WR Riley Cooper and Bradford were on different pages with a routes and the ball was thrown near no one. Bradford had nothing to say to Cooper on it. Even if all he did was jog over and say “My bad.” Instead there was nothing. Meanwhile the miscues mounted. Sanchez on the other hand, you will immediately hear from. Players know that bad play will not be shrugged at with Sanchez out there. They now know that they can’t “dog it” anymore, and in that we have a leader who makes everyone around him better. From Bradford you get a guy sitting by himself on the sideline and on the field doing shit like this.
and this
If this is your idea of a leader, you probably get off on being disappointed that we don’t win the Super Bowl every year. Bradford couldn’t lead stink to shit. Mark Sanchez on the other hand, say what you want about his shortcomings, this team now has an actual leader out there.
WITH 8 games played right now we’re sitting at 4 – 4. We’ve made it all the way to .500. (yay.) We had no business losing to the Cowboys or Redskins and the Panthers gave us every opportunity to win the game against them. We could be 7-1 right now, but the reality is that we have way too many things that need fixing to have realistically hit that mark.
What this half of the Midseason Report will focus on, is what’s broken and how it could be fixed. Tomorrow we’ll get into the feel good stuff, but today we’ll tackle the things that keeps ruining shit for us, and why none of it stands a chance in hell of getting fixed.
The QB: Sam Bradford has no business being our starter and I’ve been making that points for months now. Mark Sanchez would be a temporary patch. While Sanchez is also not a game changer, he at least wouldn’t run the Offense while riding the brake. He’s not great, but he’d be a clear upgrade. You won’t see this change happen though, because if GM Kelly sits a healthy Bradford, he’s essentially admitting that he blew it evaluating talent at the key position on the side of the ball he’s supposed to be a genius at.
Running the ball: While we rank among the top teams running the ball, there is room for tons of improvement. We allow too many hits in the backfield, and sweep/stretch plays are too often bottled up before a RB can get to the corner. The announcers for Sunday Night Football pointed out that even in Week Nine the type of handoffs required in this zone-read system, are still not comfortable for either the QB or the RB. This is fixable by running out of the Shotgun a lot less. That of course won’t happen because leaving the Shotgun to run, tells the other team when you’re running.
The Shotgun: It’s harder to run out of, and no one buys our play-action. Running the entire Offense from under Center would fix this, but that won’t happen. That would require too many changes in how plays are designed, teched, and timed, just to name couple things. Besides that, Coach Kelly believes the Shotgun’s elimination of the drop-back, improves processing time so the ball can come out faster. That would be nice if were true when Bradford scrambles back an extra 8-10 yards before throwing yet another pass to the sideline for a gain of a yard.
The 3-4 front: Guess who’s 21st against the run! Guess who has Miami, New England, Buffalo, and Washington coming up! As in previous years our front seven is starting to wear down. We started out crushing the run, but just in the last two games against Carolina (204 yards) and Dallas (134) we’ve proven less than stout. (FYI: Just to compare Cowboys games (G1: 33 – 109 – 3.3) , (G2: 29 – 134 – 4.6)). As the year goes on it’s only going to get easier to run the ball on us. This can be fixed by going to a 4-3 front, but that won’t happen because while more stable than a 3-4, a 4-3 offers less versatility and flexibility. Offensive minded head coaches value versatility and flexibility as it makes them feel they have options.
Single-High Safety: I have long been an opponent of this system as it invites the deep ball to be attempted down the sideline where the one on one is. Particularly against a 3-4 front. Since this system arrived in Philadelphia we’ve ranked 31st , 32nd , and this year so far 20th against the pass. Incidentally no defense coached by DC Billy Davis has ever ranked higher than 23rd vs the pass at year’s end. So let’s keep our fingers crossed for that #20 spot! (Insert eye roll here). OR we could do something that works. Like going to a Cover Two/Man base. LOL! Just kidding. If we went with a C2M it would be the first step to abandoning the 3-4. We simply can’t play a C2M with how this front is schemed. Telling you why would be an article in itself.
The problems aren’t nearly as big of a problem, as the fact that we’re invested in continuing things that keep us from fixing the problems. So there you are. That’s the bad news. Tune in tomorrow for the good news. And yes, there IS good news to be had.
SAM Bradford is not to blame for the Eagles passing game woes. Or so we keep being told. In fact our Head Coach/GM went as far as to say at his Monday press conference, that he’s pleased with Bradford’s play. So Bradford is officially blameless for this mess. Instead what’s happening is the entire receiving corps is being thrown under the bus (by the media) because of the high number of drops this year. But the truth is, the drops aren’t the problem.
I’m not saying that the 18 drops should be swept under the rug; but don’t you find it odd that suddenly everyone on the team can’t catch? No fan came into 2015 worried about the hands of WR Jordan Matthews. He had a nice rookie year, so expectations were high for 2015. Some of us were concerned about WR Josh Huff, but that had way more to do with mental lapses than his ability to catch. Rookie WR Neslon Agholor had most fans salivating over the idea of what he’d do once the games counted.
All those guys and this Offense looked so good during the preseason, right? So what changed? Speculation is that Matthews might have a hand injury, but his injury can’t cause RB Darren Sproles to drop passes. The coach suggested that it’s likely a concentration issue. So wait….his answer is that suddenly everyone has poor concentration? Come on now, Kelly. That dog don’t even hunt.
Meanwhile as we focus on 18 drops in 274 attempts, what no one is discussing are the Real Problems. And yes I said problems not problem. The First Problem isn’t the drops, it’s the completions. That’s not a typo, and I’ll say it again. The first problem is the completions. More directly it’s where they happen.
Entering Week 8, our 3rd down conversion percentage (32%) is 4th lowest in the league. That has a lot to do with where the ball is thrown. Swing passes that meet our RB’s at or behind the line of scrimmage, and passes over the middle to WR’s crossing beneath LB depth, are the norm now, and it repeatedly leaves us in poor down and distance situations, often setting up 3rd and long. This is made worse by repeatedly throwing the ball short of the first down marker during those same 3rd and long situations.
The routes run during the plays are not Bradford’s fault, but it brings up the Second Problem. While Bradford didn’t design the Offense or draw up the plays, he does elect whom he throws to. That is 100% on him. However, instead of challenging a defense, he nearly always reverts to Checkdown Charlie, and takes only what a defense will allow him to have. And then we punt.
This is every game so far, regardless of what defense we face or which coverage is rolled out. Be it Cover One or Cover Four, Man or Zone, the behavior is the same. Our Quarterback doesn’t play to win, he plays to not lose. That’s fine if the opponent is willing to self-destruct for you, but if they play even remotely competent/competitive ball, we’re in trouble.
Under Michael Vick this Offense was productive. Under Nick Foles this Offense was productive. Under Mark Sanchez this Offense was productive. Under Sam Bradford it’s sputtering because he’s okay with “just getting by”.
The obvious (and temporary) solution is Sanchez, but as I told you before, it won’t happen because then the GM is admitting that he blew it trading for Bradford. This brings up the Third Problem where the GM sandbags the Head Coach with a player that EVERYONE KNOWS he’s not happy with. It’s Kelly throwing himself under the bus to keep himself from making himself look bad. And we all get to watch him drag himself through shit. Meanwhile Howie Roseman, still smells like a rose man. Just as I told you he would.
NICK FOLES!
THE truth is, many of us knew that the system was going to change, what’s more important however, is to understand why the system is going to change.
Lots of people (and I’m one of them) don’t completely trust the assertion by Chip Kelly that Nick Foles is his guy at QB for the long haul. I’m just not sold that Foles fits Kelly’s system.
It’s not that I think we need a running QB for this system. Nick Foles isn’t a running QB, and last year he ran this system just fine. Of course that all depends on which “this” you mean when you discuss this system.
What we’ll run in 2014 will be decidedly different than what we ran in 2013. I first said that on March 18th when I wrote about the Sproles Effect; and I said it again on March 20th when I discussed how we’d be fine after trading DeSean Jackson. Now it seems that a few days ago (July 8th), Eagles insider Ron Jaworski has also said it. Everybody who follows Eaglemaniacal.com was probably glad to see that Jaws had finally caught up to what the rest of us had known for months.
Last year we ran a kind of “Vertical Spread” but we no longer have the pieces (DJax) to do that. In football when you can’t go vertical, you go horizontal, so Kelly is countering by doing something sneaky. He is gradually transitioning us to a system that almost mirrors what he ran at Oregon. Oh, you don’t see it? Well then allow me to break it down.
First, we’ll look at what it is. Do you know why Kelly’s system is so QB friendly? Because it doesn’t require the QB to lead the Offense in the traditional sense. As a collegiate coach (both as an OC and a HC) only once in 6 years did Kelly’s offense even attempt 400 passes.
OC
2007: 413 passes/ 607 rushes
2008: 373 passes/ 581 rushes
HC
2009: 338 passes/ 540 rushes
2010: 395 passes/ 614 rushes
2011: 386 passes/ 619 rushes
2012: 373 passes/ 672 rushes
Every year after 2009 the passes went down and the rushes went up. FYI: Last year, the Eagles: 508 passes/ 500 rushes. If things go well, expect that ratio to change sides. At least.
In a system like that you don’t need a DJax or an Andre Johnson, or for that matter even a Nick Foles. The QB isn’t so much making reads as he’s simply delivering the ball. It’s almost idiot proof. So far no QB Kelly has started going back to 2007 has had any trouble operating this system. And so far not one of them has been a viable NFL starter away from it, as Kelly doesn’t teach QB’s how to be QB’s. (Buyer beware poaching an Eagles QB while Kelly is here.)
And now for the “Why”! At Oregon where Kelly was the Head Coach from 2009 to 2012, he frequently rotated 2 RB’s. In fact, take a look at how many carries the second string RB got in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Respectively, that’s 61 (in 13 games), 91 (in 13), 152 (in 14), and 92 (in 13). Last year Bryce Brown logged just 75 in 16 games, and you can tell just by eyeballing it that the big back didn’t get as many opportunities as his collegiate counterparts.
Kelly has had most of his success with smaller, quicker RB’s like 194lb LaMicheal James, 190lb Kenjon Barner, and 176lb DeAnthony Thomas. So out goes 220lb Bryce Brown, and in comes 190lb Darren Sproles, along with 200lb WR/RB-tweener Josh Huff. Coincidental, you say? Okay. I’ll keep going.
Look at Oregon’s 2011 again and also the Eagles 2013. Tell me if you can see any similarities between Foles and Oregon’s QB. And please, don’t forget to also compare those rushing stats!
Now in any of those other years, 2009, 2010, or 2012, take a look at how many rushes there were by the QB… Wow right?
What Nick Foles ran in 2013, was NOT what Chip Kelly prefers to run. We have yet to see Kelly’s actual system, and Nick Foles does not strike me as a 100 carry per season QB.
Basically this shift to a horizontal approach is a slow transition from what Kelly has to run, to what he’d like to run.
So yeah. The system is changing. And now you know why.
WHAT’S this about Mark Sanchez “resurfacing as a starter under Chip Kelly”?! I’m glad that Sanchez feels rejuvenated and that the Eagles were the best place he could have landed (because no one likes flipping burgers); but I’m not at all prepared for any discussion that puts ButtFumble in the driver’s seat.
Don’t get me wrong! Sanchez is an Eagle now, so as an Eagle fan I want him to do well here; but by “do well” I mean hold a clipboard and wear a baseball cap, as Nick Foles goes on to challenge Brett Favre’s ‘consecutive starts by a QB’ record. I’m not being anti-Sanchez, just pro-Foles. (Besides with [Marcus Mariota] coming out of Oregon next year, Foles doesn’t need the aggravation.)
Right now we have a WR coming off of a devastating injury, and were folding in a rookie to replace one of the NFL’s premiere deep threats. Still with that, Kelly says that the Offense is light years ahead of where it was last year. So you’ll have to excuse me if I don’t want the boat rocked right now.
Image courtesy of Standingosports.com
BACK in February, the Eagles offered Jeremy Maclin a 5-year deal, which he rejected. Instead he inked a 1-year deal that will allow him to show that he’s back from injury, and still has his skills. If it all goes well he should be able to cash in next year as free agent either with the Eagles or elsewhere.
My guess is that it’ll be elsewhere.
We drafted WR Jordan Matthews in the second round and on the very same night, Chip Kelly said: “He’ll start in the slot”. Kelly added, “If the other team wants to play their smallest cornerback in (the slot), they will have to deal with a 6-foot-3 guy over 200 pounds.”
Since Matthews will start, he’ll get plenty of opportunity to shine. The problem is there’s only one football. If Matthews shines really bright, it may look like he and not Maclin, is the Eagles most dynamic threat at WR.
The emergence of Matthews could seriously undercut Maclin’s market value next year. Keep in mind all of this already assumes that Maclin stays healthy. Anything less than that would be disastrous for him.
If the gamble works out for Maclin, great; but he may find himself wishing he’d signed that 5-year deal.
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 