PART One of the the twelve part series
(Click artwork for article)
Roster
JEFF Lurie may have fired Chip Kelly just in time. While “The Idiot Kelly” (TIK) may have given away some of our best offensive weapons, it’s not like he brought in guys like Reno Mahe to replace them. While TIK’s moves were generally downgrades, it’s not like we have empty shelves over here.
If you look around you’ll read a lot about the holes on our roster, and how big a job resurrecting the team will be.
Not so fast. We have some issues. That part is beyond debate. However, we’re far from being a long-term project. Whether or not the weapons we have can be dangerous, is more a matter of how we use what we have, and how we augment it.
First lets look at our problems:
If we re-signed every Free Agent we have, QB Sam Bradford would still scare no one, and our interior Offensive Line is dreadful. For years now, cute movement schemes have hidden C Jason Kelce‘s lack of power, but teams started to pick on him right out of the gate in 2015. So don’t expect anything better from him in 2016. Our starting Guards are decent back-ups, but on 3rd and 2 neither man is the guy you’d bet on to make a hole for your RB.
Defensively, odds are strong that we’re going back to a 4-3 front. Most of us think OLB Connor Barwin is a great guy, but anyone who knows football will tell you that he’s a bad fit for a 4-3. He isn’t strong enough for DE, and doesn’t cover well enough for OLB. For that matter OLB Brandon Graham is no better in coverage and may even actually be worse. (Graham however, can play DE.)
We have a number of holes and that 2nd round pick we gave away to get Bradford will hurt us in the Draft, but we can fix some of this before we spend the first red cent. The first thing we need to do is realize that the only way to get better is to rely on the Draft.
Where we’re strong:
We’re as deep as any team in the NFL at RB. And if you look around the NFL, no one is doubting that RB DeMarco Murray will bounce back in 2016. I can’t imagine that he’ll see 900+ yards again so long as he shares a backfield with RB Ryan Mathews, but who cares as long as they can sustains drives. We have some young talent and depth at WR, and now Jordan Matthews will get a chance to be the guy some of us know he can be. The West Coast Offense generally favors bigger wideouts and now we’ll get to see Matthews matched up on the outside.
If DE Vinny Curry comes back as a starter, we have the makings of a dangerous Defensive Line by playing Curry at LDE, Fletcher Cox at LDT, RDT Bennie Logan and RDE Graham. ILB Jordan Hicks can likely make the jump to MLB, and ILB Mychal Kendricks has already played SLB very well in his rookie year here. He also has the speed, strength and versatility to do it again. If Malcolm Jenkins stays at SS, Eric Rowe moving to FS only opens the door for CB Denzel Rice to push for the starting spot opposite Byron Maxwell. Maxwell might now get a chance to play in a scheme more like the one he was in as a Seahawk. He’ll never be a bargain, but now (in the economics of football), he might start being worth his contract. If we can re-sign Walter Thurmond (sanely), it only makes us stronger in terms of depth and when we have to play heavy Nickle or Dime. If we can’t keep him, well hey, that’s hardly the end of the world.
So don’t be too broken up over our roster. There are only tons of question marks if you lack imagination, and are stuck in TIK’s way of seeing these players.
Now here’s how you fix what’s broken:
Fixing the O-Line and QB:
Move RT Lane Johnson over to LT and slide Jason Peters inside to LG. Peters has had some trouble with quickness on the edge this year, but still is as strong as ever. Moving him inside allows him to mentor Johnson and maybe even mask some of Kelce’s power issues. Besides, it’s easier to build the right side of an O-Line than the left side, or to maintain chemistry when every other spot is new. Spend an early pick on a Guard and swoop around later for a RT.
At QB, let Bradford walk and sign Robert Griffin instead. He’ll be cheaper and has more incentive to sign here than anywhere else. Then you grab a rookie QB in the 3rd or 4th round. I’d like to take one earlier, but nobody in this draft who’s worth it will be there at 13, let alone 17th or 18th (HINT! HINT!) So don’t reach early. Better to build a line and take a chance on Griffin, or on finding a rookie gem. If Griffin gets hot early and we’re winning, keep playing him. If he falters or gets hurt, play the rookie. We’re either winning or developing our future. We win either way.
Fixing the Defense:
Resign Curry with (some financial) apologies for not starting him sooner. At WLB I roll the dice on Marcus Smith and spend a Draft pick. A guy like Smith had no business playing LOLB, yet that’s what he was tabbed to do under TIK. I make 2016 his last year here unless he proves something, but I hand him the rope to climb with or hang himself with. I don’t simply put him on the bench for a year, cut him, and leave questions out there about “what if”.
Fixing our missing second round pick and such:
Here is where you’ll need vision and imagination. Before you shoot this down, make sure you read through this part a second time. I’m trying to give you the large picture.
We pick 13th in the Draft. If we’re smart, we want to draft a Guard which we could get in the second round, except we don’t have a second round pick. Enter the Falcons picking 17th or the Colts picking 18th. Atlanta had only 19 sacks this year so they’ll be looking for another pass rusher. The Colts did better with 31 sacks, but still need a guy. We can offer both teams Connor Barwin and let them swap spots with us in round one, in exchange for their second round pick. Since the Falcons and Colts pick one after the other and need the same thing, I’d make the offer very public and put a clock on it. If they know each other is after that move up, there’s now pressure to accept our offer faster. We can’t use Barwin as a player, but we can use him to sweeten the pot. This way we get a second rounder, an open roster spot, his cap savings, and it only costs us a guy we can’t use anyway. Meanwhile they get a guy who’s still 29, proven in two places, with a contract that goes through 2019 with no crazy jumps in it. It’s a win-win. Besides, I’m sick of seeing us simply release talent that we can’t use. Why not get something for him?
QB Mark Sanchez packaged with one of our third rounders (80th) could net us the Texans 2nd rounder (53rd). He likely wouldn’t be a starter for them, but if they can’t get a decent rookie QB at #22 in round one, Sanchez is a much nicer fallback than another year of Brian Hoyer and/or Brandon Weeden.
I’d also try to get DE Taylor Hart, ILB Kiko Alonso, NT Beau Allen, and our fourth rounder (111th) out to San Fran for their third rounder (69th) and either C Marcus Martin or G Brandon Thomas, neither of which really fits what TIK does. Allen is just a guy, and Alonso’s knee has too much wear and tear for us to trust it the way TIK does.
So relax. We’re far from a dumpster fire over here. We need work, but there’s no reason that we can’t be ready to win the NFC East in 2016.
LAST year I said that we don’t need another injury prone, retread QB. I may have spoken out of turn and been wrong there. Redskins QB Robert Griffin might be exactly what we need in 2016. What’s more he could be ours for the taking.
While Griffin’s injury history may have taken away his ability to be an electrifying runner, he still has more than enough mobility to be dangerous. Particularly in West Coast Offense. That immediately loosens things on the inside for RB’s DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews in 2016. And unlike Colin Kaepernick (whom some fans wanted), Griffin actually possesses the ability to read defenses.
Sam Bradford sucks as a starter. He lacks the heart to harness the obvious talent in his arm. Treading water with him might be fine if not for his expiring contract. He’s already being overpaid this year, and he’ll be looking for either more money on a short deal, or less money on a longer deal. His career so far indicates that he’s worth neither. He’s simply not a starter and should by no means be paid like one. Griffin on the other hand is a player we can and should sign.
First the “CAN” part:
Griffin has a 5th year option on his ‘skins contract for which he’d be owed 16 million. Now that Kirk Cousins is definitely their starter, keeping 16 million on the bench makes no sense. Especially since Cousins’ contract expires after this year, and so he’ll be calling for a contract in the 10 – 15 million dollar range. The ‘skins simply can’t afford to keep Griffin, so expect him to be a Free Agent in March.
Now the “SHOULD” part:
We need a QB, and with the rapid deterioration of Tony Romo in Dallas, the Cowboys also need a QB. If we leave Griffin out there, Dallas likely snaps him up. If he flops it’s no big deal, but if he doesn’t we’ll have stood by as they re-armed. Not only that, but Washington is making a move to no longer be a bottom feeder in the East. If we grab Griffin, we get a player that can give us deeper details on everything the ‘skins run on offense. Not just the stuff coaches see on film, but the why and how of they build it in practices. To our Defensive Coordinator, Griffin would be worth three times his weight in gold twice a year.
If we grab Griffin the top remaining market for Dallas consists of guys like Bradford, Mark Sanchez, and maybe even a trade for Johnny Manziel. So a grab for Griffin is a building block to upgrade the entire Offense, while saving us a draft pick to boot. Better still, if he signs with us (or Dallas) he gets to stick it to Washington (i.e. Jay Gruden) twice a year. I’m not sure what he can do for Dallas, but his presence alone would make our run game much deadlier, even without a big upgrade at Guard.
It would be stupid not to make the move.
RECENTLY Comcast Sportsnet put out a story saying that OT Lane Johnson, WR Jordan Matthews, TE Zach Ertz, DE Fletcher Cox, CB Eric Rowe and LB Jordan Hicks were among half a dozen building blocks that the next coach could base his program on.
This is wrong. Dead wrong.
Not knowing who the coach is means we have no idea what their philosophy may be, what system they may run, or whether or not the new coach will see any of the aforementioned players as the sort of leadership that the new regime demands.
Let me explain.
Every Eagles fan knows that Lane Johnson was drafted with an eye to moving him from RT to LT when Jason Peters moves on. However the new coach may see that very differently, and opt to draft a LT during the 2017 offseason, especially if Peters returns to LT for the 2016 season.
Jordan Matthews wouldn’t be a slot receiver for practically any other coach besides the guy who drafted him. That means now he likely moves outside where he hasn’t established himself as a go-to WR yet (though I think he would). Until he proves himself to be “That Guy” he’ll continue to be just “a guy”, and so not a bona fide building block.
Zach Ertz has never quite lived up to the hype of his potential. While he might be a tempting toy to have, head coaches who waste too much energy trying to mine potential from a guy or two, have a high tendency to get fired. Likely the new coach won’t come in and marry himself to Ertz the way that fans have.
Fletcher Cox is a building block. Even coming off his best year playing as a 3-4 DE, I still wonder if he’s being wasted based on his performance as a rookie playing as a 4-3 DT. He was dominant inside, even though he was a just a pup, and his DC was an Offensive Line coach the year before. Makes me wonder…
Let’s be honest. In 2015 Eric Rowe never sees the field if CB Nolan Carroll stays healthy. Carroll got hurt so Rowe started the last 5 games of the season. He was part of a Secondary that gave up 11 TD’s to just 3 picks over that span. For Rowe’s part he made just one play vs the ball (a deflection) compared to 18 tackles. Rowe is a better Safety than Corner, but until someone sees that, he can’t legitimately be referred to as a building block.
We all love Jordan Hicks, but if this system changes does he have a natural position here? He’s not a prototypical thumper MLB, and he REALLY doesn’t seem to have the speed or change of direction skills needed to be a game-changing OLB at this level. That’s not to say he can’t play MLB, it’s just yet to be seen if he can. With that in question, legitimately calling him a building block is murky.
In all truth, we have no idea what we have on the roster until we know who’s calling the shots. Right now everyone on the roster is a question mark. The sad fact is, they will remain so as long as the Eagles coaching search includes candidates from every direction and indicates no clear vision for how 2016 will be different from 2015.
OWNER Jeff Lurie wasted no time cutting out the cancer on his team. Former Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly didn’t even get a chance to coach the final game of the season, or give a farewell address to the players. I almost said “his players” but unless you played at Oregon, I have severe doubts that he has many (if any) players in that locker room who considered themselves “his” guys.
Considering how much of his coaching staff was handpicked to coach specific techniques for his system; and considering how many soft and candy-ass players he bought in here, there will be a lot of debris from the tear down that is soon to follow. So lets take a look at what it will likely mean.
The coaching staff will turn over. Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis may as well not even show up for all the good he’s done. Fans hate him, and as you know (if you’ve been following this website for the last two years), his system is full of bad concepts which teams exploit almost in their sleep. If we switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 it would make sense for the entire staff to go except for maybe Defensive Backs coach Cory Undlin. This unit was a train wreck before he got here and it’s hard to pin much blame on a guy for struggling within an already badly flawed system.
The worst part is the inability of this staff to develop our youth. Offensive Line coach Jeff Stoutland didn’t develop any of his second string charges into competent linemen, and even starting RT Lane Johnson is nowhere near where his potential suggested he could be when he was drafted. In the last two drafts we added WR’s Nelson Agholor in the first round, Jordan Matthews in the second round, and Josh Huff in the third round. While Matthews seems productive at first glance (145 catches, 1815 yards and 14 TD’s in two seasons) his production as you can see, has been HIGHLY erratic. Our WR’s mostly disappointing numbers (Agholor has 21 catches for 260 yards and a TD this year; Huff has 35 catches for 410 yards and 3 TD’s in two years) have more to do with poor coaching than anything else.
And then there’s the blatant favoritism. Would anyone care to explain why 2nd round pick DE Vinny Curry has never started a game in four years, yet DE’s Brandon Bair (FA) and Taylor Hart (5th round) have? By the way size isn’t the issue, as Curry is 279 to Bair’s 280 and Hart’s 281.
In fact, aside from Special Teams coach Dave Fipp, Running Backs coach Duce Staley, and the aforementioned Undlin, I’d broom the whole staff.
It also means that you can just about kiss goodbye to QB Sam Bradford. Kelly trading away a second rounder for him was almost the equivalent to the purchase of Manhattan. Lurie will likely want to air out the stink of that trade.
Player movement in a regime change is hard to predict, but when you bring in a new coach he usually arrives with a wrecking ball. So as for PLAYERS to package in a trade or let go of, the smart list looks like:
QB’s Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez: Draft a QB and get a back-up who can run the new system.
RB Kenjon Barner: He’s one dimensional and we’re loaded with the other three in a real system.
WR Riley Cooper: We never needed him. Eat the dead money and open up a roster spot.
TE Brent Celek: I love him but we need the cap space, and it’s time.
OT’s Jason Peters, Dennis Kelly, Matt Tobin: Peters is done (unless he moves inside) and the other two are disasters.
OG’s All but our starters: We need new starters but our current starters would be decent depth.
DL Beau Allen and anyone who played at Oregon: Cedric Thornton can rotate at DT in a 4-3.
OLB’s Connor Barwin, Marcus Smith: Barwin is good but doesn’t fit anywhere in a 4-3.
ILB DeMeco Ryans: Is more valuable as a leader than as an athlete at this point.
CB Nolan Carroll: I let him walk in Free Agency and let Denzel Rice push to start.
S Walter Thurmond and Chris Maragos: Move Eric Rowe to FS.
Again you don’t have to RELEASE all of these guys. Packaging and trading some of them with picks insures that we’d be in better positions to replace the players we can’t really use, with pieces that fit better. I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of seeing guys walk for nothing.
SUNDAY 4:25 Gillette Stadium Foxboro, MA
THE Eagles enter this game with a record of 4 – 7, and still mathematically in the hunt for the NFC East crown. A road win over a 10 – 1 Patriot team, would get a lot of fans believing in this team’s ability to win the division. Not every fan. Maybe not even most of them, but a lot of them. There is no team in sports that I hate they way I hate the Patriots, and a win in their house would be awesome, but to win there you need to find some weakness to exploit.
EAGLES
Defense
I feel like even the Phillies could suit up and score touchdowns on our Defense. Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis basically told every team in the NFL to put their #1 WR on our Defense’s right, because CB Byron Maxwell can’t be moved from the left side. Last week against the Lions, Davis sacrificed rookie CB Eric Rowe to save Maxwell from having to leave his comfort zone.
There are so many things so fundamentally wrong with this Defense that it would take far less time to mention what they do right. For instance in the last two seasons we ranked 32nd and 31st vs the pass. This year we’re only ranked 20th. Then again in those other season we were tough to run against. This year we’re the 5th worst team in the NFL vs the run. It’s why only four teams see more rushes against them. Why throw it when you can just run it?
Offense
This team is 20th in the NFL in scoring. (That statement has me itching to start laying blame, but that’s not a what Preview is for.) Our Offensive Line has allowed 13 sacks over the last 4 games, including the the one that injured QB Sam Bradford.
We’re 12th in rushing but it’s up and down. We not very good at throwing the ball, running the ball or blocking for the guys doing the throwing and the running. There really isn’t anything this team can hang it’s hat on as a rally point, and no player is stepping up and saying “It’s on me”.
Patriots
Defense
Their 4-3 front is stable and sets the tone for the rest of the unit. The unit gets after the QB, as 20 of their 35 sacks are owned by the starting defensive line. They’re also ranked 11th in the NFL against the run, allowing only 97 yards per game. The Secondary has 10 pick to this point. While that’s not as many as we have, the Patriots more stable form of defense means they don’t need turnovers to perform well enough to help their offense.
Offense
QB Tom Brady has thrown 28 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. RB LeGarrette Blount has almost 600 yards rushing and 6 touchdowns while averaging 4.2 yards per carry. That said, Brady enters this week missing his top 4 receivers due to injury. A few cleverly disguised coverages could cause communication problems between Brady and the targets he now is forced to rely on.
Right now not having his usual weapons means Brady has to take chances that he normally wouldn’t. A smart team should be able to exploit that weakness. Let me repeat that louder. A SMART TEAM SHOULD BE ABLE TO EXPLOIT THAT WEAKNESS!!!!
BOTTOM LINE
If the Eagles can find some weakness to exploit and win this one, great. But I’m not delusional. I have absolutely no reason to expect that they can beat a more talented team, with a better coach, on the road, after quietly laying down at our opponents feet for three straight weeks. I just hope the Patriots don’t break the scoreboard.
PREDICTION
Patriots 54 – Eagles 13
THURSDAY 1:00 Ford Field Detroit, MI
IF we don’t move to 5 – 6 tomorrow it’s time to pack the season in and start doing some house-cleaning. Detroit is a 3 – 7 team on a 2 game win streak (both 18 – 16 outcomes). They’re pretty bad at pretty much everything; and a loss to them would pretty much be the ultimate humiliation.
EAGLES
Defense
Our unit is fatigued. If you doubted me when I told you that last week, you should be fully on-board with my assessment now. Our pass rush is almost non-existent and as a result the turnovers this team needs to survive are not forthcoming. We’re at a point now where we’re going to start needing some Special Teams guys to get a shot playing more than a few downs here and there. Guys like NT Beau Allen, LB Marcus Smith, LB Bryan Braman, and CB Eric Rowe (remember him?) need to start spelling the starters for longer stretches. LB Kiko Alonso can be given more minutes inside so that LB Mychal Kendricks can be moved around the formation to maximize his effectiveness on the downs he does play.
We have too many problems with readily available solutions to them that we just aren’t instituting.
Offense
Mark Sanchez is the QB, because starting Thad Lewis is the equivalent to waving the white flag. Behind Sanchez the team can move the ball. That much can’t be disputed. What we don’t do well (regardless of QB) is move it consistently and finish drives. We need to find something to hang out hat on. We need to take the weight off of Sanchez’s shoulders. We need to lean on our run game. Specifically in the form of RB DeMarco Murray.
Fortunately we get to go against a team that’s just awful at stopping the run. If we come out (like I said last week) running the ball with an up the gut, power concept, this game should be a cake walk. If we come out trying to force 5 yard crossing routes, it’ll be a loooong day again.
Also for the last two weeks there’s been way too much of our interior Offensive Linemen (Guards and Center) being driven back into the QB/RB. This far into the year that’s not liable to stop, but I’ll have my eye on it.
Lions
Defense
They have a good pass rusher in DE Ezekiel Ansah, but they’re not much to look at besides him. They don’t top the run (24th), the pass (19th), or scoring (29th) worth a damn; so there’s really nothing here that they’re going to come in to this game hanging their hats on.
They have 4 interceptions (between 3 players) to this point in the season, but that number will likely be 6 by the end of this game.
Offense
QB Matt Stafford is the offense. Most people thing Lions and immediately think about WR Calvin “Megatron” Johnson, but injuries in recent years have added some slack to what used to be his tight game. However he’s still big and can run and can make catches,so putting a CB on him one-on-one in a Single-High coverage concept could be fatal for some poor defense out there one day.
If you’re worried about the Lions running on us like Tampa Bay did, DON’T. We may still be fairly easy to push around, but Detroit has problems already with running the ball, as they are ranked DEAD LAST (32nd) in the category. Part of it is bad scheme, part of it is injuries and part of it is that they simply lack the talent to be really good at it. Put the “Snow Bowl” out of your minds. This is indoors, in a dome.
BOTTOM LINE
The bottom line is that I hope my team doesn’t spoil my dinner. If we lose tomorrow the season is effectively over.
PREDICTION
EAGLES 18 – 16
SUNDAY 1:00 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
SINCE the giants are off this week, a win by us and a Redskin loss puts us in 1st place in the NFC East. So we’re still talking playoffs around here; and as long as QB Sam Bradford isn’t around to hold us back anymore, we may actually have a shot at qualifying for them.
EAGLES
Defense
The pass rush is back and we don’t allow a lot of points, but the fatigue factor is clearly catching up to us. Last week we had no business allowing the Dolphins to come back from a 16 – 3 deficit, but that’s what happens when fatigue sets in. When you dig down to find a little more to keep going, you find that the well has run dry. The Defense is playing way too many minutes- (sorry Chip) too many snaps out there, and it’s starting to show up (for the third year in a row) on the opponents score boards.
Offense
Same system, new sheriff. QB Mark Sanchez doesn’t have as talented an arm as Bradford, but he has more mobility, more of a “push the ball” mentality, and is more of a vocal leader. Sanchez isn’t likely to give you a 4 TD performance, (more like 2 TD’s and 2 Ints), but with him you’ll move the ball and 3rd down will likely stop being a point of ruin. That will allow the Defense to get more rest than they’ve managed so far in games this year. Especially early in games.
As long as the Eagles are willing to stay in RB DeMarco Murray‘s wheelhouse and run mostly between the Tackles or tosses, he’ll be productive. If they keep running him on sweeps and stretches, we’re gonna miss RB Ryan Mathews. Be nice to see Darren Sproles get a couple of those actually.
What would really be nice is to see a WR not named Jordan Matthews catch 4 or 5 balls this week. Not 4 or 5 catches by the WR’s, but one guy (I’m looking at YOU Nelson Agholor!) catching 4 or 5. That would be sweet.
.
Buccaneers
Defense
This group can get after the QB with different players and even scarier, their two best pass rushers are defensive lineman led by DE Jacquies Smith and DT Gerald McCoy. That means those aren’t scheme sacks, they’re “defeated the blocker” sacks. Those sacks contribute to a league leading 14 FF (Forced Fumbles). They allow a ton of points (26th in the NFL allowing 26.3 per game) but they’re a stingy bunch when it comes to giving up yards (7th place, at only 334.2 per game).
If they have a weakness to exploit it’s that they’re a very “quick” front seven. Quick in this case is code for small. S-M-all. Seriously, their MLB is 227 pounds, and they have a 238 pound back-up DE (Howard Jones, 3.0 sacks so far). If a team committed to a power run concept, they’d have the Bucs gassed by the half, open mouth huffing for air by the end of the 3rd, and by the mid 4th quarter, they’d be trying not to flinch (pre-snap) from the coughing fits that result from gagging on spit when you gulp air too fast.
This is a game for “Big people beat up little people.”
Offense
This is a uhhhhhh…..Let’s call the Bucs a work in progress. This team can run the ball, but they still have a rookie at QB in Jameis Winston. His performances are still all over the map, but that’s not all on him. From what I see it has a lot to do with the one-dimensionality of the passing game. His top two WR’s are big physical guys who’s game is largely devoid of fine-point craftwork. As a result they’re an easy read for defenses and it makes the QB look worse than he is.
Stopping them won’t be hard since most of their problems are built into their own concepts.
.
BOTTOM LINE
I will always have a sore spot in my heart for Tampa for the way they bragged “We tore down the Vet” (I couldn’t find the video anymore, just that reference). It was the NFC Championship game where Joe Jurevicius scarred Levon Kirkland for life on a crossing route that Kirkland shouldn’t have been covering in the first place.
Needless to say I harbor an ocean of personal animosity for this team because of that, and so a loss to that logo is unthinkable for me. This is only intensified by the fact that they suck right now. We can’t lose to these hapless bastards. And now that we have a QB, we won’t have to.
PREDICTION
EAGLES 28 – 13
WITH 8 games played right now we’re sitting at 4 – 4. We’ve made it all the way to .500. (yay.) We had no business losing to the Cowboys or Redskins and the Panthers gave us every opportunity to win the game against them. We could be 7-1 right now, but the reality is that we have way too many things that need fixing to have realistically hit that mark.
What this half of the Midseason Report will focus on, is what’s broken and how it could be fixed. Tomorrow we’ll get into the feel good stuff, but today we’ll tackle the things that keeps ruining shit for us, and why none of it stands a chance in hell of getting fixed.
The QB: Sam Bradford has no business being our starter and I’ve been making that points for months now. Mark Sanchez would be a temporary patch. While Sanchez is also not a game changer, he at least wouldn’t run the Offense while riding the brake. He’s not great, but he’d be a clear upgrade. You won’t see this change happen though, because if GM Kelly sits a healthy Bradford, he’s essentially admitting that he blew it evaluating talent at the key position on the side of the ball he’s supposed to be a genius at.
Running the ball: While we rank among the top teams running the ball, there is room for tons of improvement. We allow too many hits in the backfield, and sweep/stretch plays are too often bottled up before a RB can get to the corner. The announcers for Sunday Night Football pointed out that even in Week Nine the type of handoffs required in this zone-read system, are still not comfortable for either the QB or the RB. This is fixable by running out of the Shotgun a lot less. That of course won’t happen because leaving the Shotgun to run, tells the other team when you’re running.
The Shotgun: It’s harder to run out of, and no one buys our play-action. Running the entire Offense from under Center would fix this, but that won’t happen. That would require too many changes in how plays are designed, teched, and timed, just to name couple things. Besides that, Coach Kelly believes the Shotgun’s elimination of the drop-back, improves processing time so the ball can come out faster. That would be nice if were true when Bradford scrambles back an extra 8-10 yards before throwing yet another pass to the sideline for a gain of a yard.
The 3-4 front: Guess who’s 21st against the run! Guess who has Miami, New England, Buffalo, and Washington coming up! As in previous years our front seven is starting to wear down. We started out crushing the run, but just in the last two games against Carolina (204 yards) and Dallas (134) we’ve proven less than stout. (FYI: Just to compare Cowboys games (G1: 33 – 109 – 3.3) , (G2: 29 – 134 – 4.6)). As the year goes on it’s only going to get easier to run the ball on us. This can be fixed by going to a 4-3 front, but that won’t happen because while more stable than a 3-4, a 4-3 offers less versatility and flexibility. Offensive minded head coaches value versatility and flexibility as it makes them feel they have options.
Single-High Safety: I have long been an opponent of this system as it invites the deep ball to be attempted down the sideline where the one on one is. Particularly against a 3-4 front. Since this system arrived in Philadelphia we’ve ranked 31st , 32nd , and this year so far 20th against the pass. Incidentally no defense coached by DC Billy Davis has ever ranked higher than 23rd vs the pass at year’s end. So let’s keep our fingers crossed for that #20 spot! (Insert eye roll here). OR we could do something that works. Like going to a Cover Two/Man base. LOL! Just kidding. If we went with a C2M it would be the first step to abandoning the 3-4. We simply can’t play a C2M with how this front is schemed. Telling you why would be an article in itself.
The problems aren’t nearly as big of a problem, as the fact that we’re invested in continuing things that keep us from fixing the problems. So there you are. That’s the bad news. Tune in tomorrow for the good news. And yes, there IS good news to be had.
MONDAY 8:30 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
WITH a win the Eagles will be in first place in the NFC East. We’ll have the head-to-head over the giants, and one more win than the Cowboys or Foreskins. That may only last a week, but it speaks to how winnable this division is. We just need to win this game and we’re in the driver’s seat.
EAGLES
Defense
DE Fletcher Cox leads the team in sacks with 4, but the pass rush around him seems to have completely dried up. Of his 4 sacks 3 of them came last week vs a bad Saints team, so it’s not like there’s been a lot of consistency there. Luckily we haven’t been playing offensive juggernauts, so as long as we can keep opponents to 17 points or fewer we have a chance.
What we do well so far (again no juggernauts) is get turnovers. We have 14 (8 fumble recoveries, 6 interceptions) to date. What we don’t do well is defend the pass in a passing league. Only 6 teams do a worse job than we do. We’re 10th against the run, but that’s a mixed bag since teams choose to take yards in chunks through the air instead of running the ball.
Offense
Reports of this Offense finally getting their act together, are greatly exaggerated. What’s happened is we’ve gotten a few less than stellar defenses to play against and that trend will continue this week. That’s actually good for us because it allows us to continue to sharpen our Offense.
While RB DeMarco Murray is only averaging a sad 2.7 yards per carry, that number should be on its way up, as the Eagles seem to want to involve Murray more. Getting serious about running the football in between the Tackles and not only on zone-plays, will help keep QB Sam Bradford’s jersey clean. (FYI: Last week we committed to the run and Bradford was not sacked or knocked down by NFL statistics.) If we commit to running the ball the rest will fall into place. In our two wins the Eagles ran it 38 and 34 times. In our three losses, 16, 17 and 18. This ain’t rocket science folks.
giants
Defense
Gone is the pass rush from this team as their most explosive defender is not currently on the active roster. As a result the giants are the worst pass defending team in the NFL. This is only made worse by the pectoral injury to CB Prince Amukamara.
While they are the number two defense at rushing yards surrendered, only eight defenses have faced fewer rushing attempts and two of those teams have had their Bye already. Teams simply don’t attempt to run because there is no one easier to throw against.
Offense
We like to joke that QB Eli Manning is a turnover machine but the guy is responsible for exactly THREE turnovers this year so far. On the other hand he’s thrown 10 TD’s including a dagger to the face of the 49ers last week. Their passing attack will be without WR Victor Cruz and (if he’s smart) Odell Beckham. Beckham may attempt to play, but if he does will be a shadow of himself and may be more of a decoy to help get guys like Rueben Randle (who likes the middle anyway) more room to roam inside. TE Larry Donnell will be someone you want to look for as well. Running the ball is also not something they can rely on since they do it so poorly.
BOTTOM LINE
This is not a good team, they simply benefit from having a good QB and a +5 turnover ratio. They could easily be 1 – 4 right now, save for a break here and there. They are extremely beatable. That being said, we have things we have to get straight before we can say that we deserve to be on top of our division. Overall we’re a better team than the giants, plus we’re playing at home, in our black uniforms. It’ll be close, but it’ll be a win.
PREDICTION
EAGLES 20-19
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