CARSON Wentz just took another step towards becoming a franchise QB. He invited some of his teammates to hang out at his place. In the break between OTA’s and Training Camp, Wentz will be hosting a week-long passing camp for skill position players, at his home in Fargo, North Dakota. I’ve been wishing for an Eagles QB to do this since Donovan McNabbused to host teammates at his home in Arizona.
A couple years ago, I criticized Nick Foles(our then starter), for not doing this. McNabb did it to become a franchise QB and perennial playoff contender. Wentz is doing it and becoming a franchise QB. Foles didn’t do it and became a Rams back-up. then a Chiefs back-up. Now he’s an Eagles back-up.
There will be no Defense at Wentz’s home. No one will wear pads. In many ways this will seem lesser work than the OTA’s. However, it’s infinitely more important. This will help the QB and the receivers work on chemistry, and timing. They’ll get to talk about the playbook as well as the Offense’s base concepts. They’ll get to teach each other, and gain more insight as they do. More importantly they’ll get a chance to get inside of each other’s head, and get a chance to understand what their teammates see pre-snap. More importantly, they’ll get a glimpse into why their teammates see it.
For those of you who don’t know this game the way I do, let me give you some good news: Our team is about to undergo a massive evolutionary step. Wentz was handed the role of starter last year, but the role of leader must be earned. This is him earning it. This is him stepping up and wanting it.
There’s an old expression that goes “Women communicate verbally, but men communicate shoulder to shoulder”. In the sun, in the heat, through his toil, Wentz will be shoulder to shoulder with his teammates. He will be earning his mantle of Leader, in the eyes of those he plays with. I can tell you firsthand, there is no substitute for that. None. This process cannot be faked, nor simulated. There are no shortcuts to greatness.
Howie Roseman said we would be blown away by Wentz’s intangibles, and I have to say that Howie nailed the hell out of that assessment. Wentz’s intangibles (ability to assimilate and utilize new information, commitment to his craft, even keel nature, ability to engender respect from his teammates, etc.) are all top-notch. I think Roseman overestimated Wentz’s athletic ceiling, but in any case it’s still seems higher than the athletic ceilings for Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Eli Manning. All of whom have won Super Bowls with lesser physical gifts than Wentz possesses.
I say that, to say this: Dear fellow fans. Sit back and prepare to enjoy the next few years at least. Our team is on the way up, because Carson Wentz just took another step towards becoming a franchise QB.
JALEN Mills,Ron Brooks, Sidney Jones, and Rasul Douglas. Those are our top four CB’s on the roster. These four guys (plus one or two others) will make the team, and man the boundaries of our Defense. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that our Week One starting CB’s will be (barring injury), Mills and Douglas.
While that may come across as bravado or confidence, I assure you that it’s the opposite. Complete opposite. I’m worried ab— More accurately, I’m terrified of our CB situation. Did you know that between them, all four of those guys have a combined ZERO career interceptions?
Brooks has hung around for 5 NFL seasons, yet doesn’t have a single turnover (via interception, forced fumble, or fumble recovery) to his credit. Mills has a year under his belt, and may just have been a 7th round steal last year; but he only started 2 games, and played a lot of Nickel Corner. So as 16 game starters go, he’s still extremely raw. The other two CB’s are rookies. One of which will likely start the year on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list.
The most veteran CB/experienced starter on the roster, is Patrick Robinson.
Robinson iswearing his 4th different jersey in 4 years, so I have to wonder why teams keep signing him, starting him, and then not even keeping him around for depth, less than a year later. To me that comes across as a huge red flag. Some fans hope for him to be a mentor, but that seems unlikely.
A fellow fan told me this week, that he’d seen Robinson listed #1 on our depth chart. If so, then the likelihood that he’ll mentor a young guy who’ll impact his chance to start, is very thin. Besides, word around the campfire has it that he ain’t exactly a vocal locker room guy to begin with.
This isn’t to discount other players at the position. I liked what I saw in Aaron Gyrmes last preseason. I was irritated when he was cut, instead of a couple of DC Jim Schwartz‘s favoritism recipients. It would be smart to get a good look at former Jaguar, Dwayne Gratz since he’s a CB who likes to hit. Also Terrence Brooks, who snagged a pick and forced a fumble in our win over the giants last year, deserves to be here until at least final cut downs this year. That said, none of those three is someone you’d be enthusiastic about starting just yet.
So we have compromised health, no mentors, and no proven game-changer (at this level). That leaves us with the hope that Sidney Jones will rescue the position when he finally gets to see his first live action. Either that or we have to hope to be pleasantly surprised by whomever starts opposite Mills. Also we have to hope that the coaches didn’t see fool’s gold in Mills last year. That’s a lot of saying “hope”.
Our shakiest position from last season, comes a ton of change but zero certainties heading into this season. Instead of knowing that we have bedrock, we’re building a foundation on what we hope to be solid ground. So as I said, I’m terrified. More accurately, I’m scared shitless.
Well, here’s hoping that we’ll be pleasantly surprised.
ORGANIZED Team Activities (OTA’s) started for the Eagles yesterday, and I could hardly care less. For me, the season starts at Training Camp. Everything before that is glorified gym class. Scour this website back to it’s beginning in 2014, and you will never see me hyped about the Eagles during OTA’s. It pretty much a given that when football players are running around in shorts and no pads, I can hardly be bothered to watch. (This also goes for the Combine.)
Since there’s no football to monitor, I’m still in offseason mode, and focusing on the business end of things. Basically, I’m wandering around in my robe and slippers, drinking coffee right from the pot until the June 1st cuts. Those cuts will trigger a few domino effects across the NFL, of players being signed and still other players being released afterwards.
I’m waiting to see whether or not some other team’s cap issues can net us an upgrade in a couple of places like OLB (one who can cover), RB, reserve OT or reserve DT. Also, there will be teams out there looking to score waived players from this process. When some of them miss out, then you may see a trade or two, as teams want to add needed pieces before Training Camps start on July 22nd.
The generally accepted rumor, is that we are going release RB Ryan Mathews, but there is no rule stating that we have to. Players like Mathews, C Jason Kelce, and OLB Mychal Kendricks could all be held onto, in an attempt to trade them to a team who missed on a Round Two Free Agent. Teams who suffering key injuries at these positions during OTA’s could also be part of that market.
So no, you won’t hear much from me about Phys Ed. for football players. On the other hand, I will make quite a bit of noise if our team can pull off a slick move or two in the next month or so.
EVERYONE seems to be talking about what RB LeGarrette Blount means for the Eagles Offense. Conversely, no one seems to be talking about what signing Blount means for 2nd year RB Wendell Smallwood. Sure they discuss how Smallwood may be used. How many touches per game he would, should or could see, but not what the Blount signing really means for him. Long term means for him. Well friends, allow me to enlighten you.
The Eagles went into the 2017 Draft wanting to draft a RB with second round pick. Let me repeat that. They wentinto the Draft with that desire. For Smallwood, the Eagles initial desire to draft a RB with a second round pick, says they didn’t feel that they have a star or even a starter in Smallwood.
The Eagles FO (Front Office) reportedly wasn’t able to move up in the 2nd round in order to get RB Dalvin Cook, so they took CB Sidney Jones instead. Since they didn’t sign a RB in Free Agency’s first round, and didn’t get their man in the Draft, the FO was left scrambling.
Realizing that they’d screwed the pooch, the FO took a hard look at the options already available on our roster. Those options were A) pay RB Ryan Mathews for 16 starts while only getting 6 to 8 out him; or B)they could release him, and go with a roster full of runts at the position. What happened next was no less than a repudiation of Wendell Smallwood himself.
Once they whiffed on Cook in the Draft, the FO didn’t trade for a promising young RB, nor did they get behind any back currently on the roster. They essentially decided that they would eat a year at the position. Yet even with that decision, Smallwood would still not be “the guy”. Not even in a throwaway year.
Instead, the FO spent as much as 2.8M on a 30-year old, one-dimensional player, just to act as a stop-gap for 16 games or so. He’s a one year role player, here to play (what even he called) “situational football”. Next year, either through the Draft or Free Agency, you can bet your sweet ass that the Eagles will prioritize getting QB Carson Wentz a RB he can grow with.
The Eagles blatant disregard for Smallwood in particular has to be jarring for his confidence, considering that the team didn’t even invest much in the guy they gave his spot to. Blount is here long enough for the team to have a full spate of options to pick from in 2018. At which point they’ll be looking past Smallwood again. I hope his agent is preparing him.
Maybe I’m wrong and Smallwood will have a huge year, be a top 5 rushing leader, and become a breakout star. Maybe the Eagles will decide they don’t need to spend an early draft pick on a RB in 2018. Maybe Donald Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to America, and maybe the Eagles and Browns will play in the Super Bowl this year. Oh wait, I don’t take hallucinogenics. Never mind.
This signing basically tweets to the world what the Eagles think of Wendell Smallwood. If he can still be an effective Kick Returner this year, then I can see him getting a deal to stay beyond his rookie contract. If not… This Philly (guy) is 75% sure that Smallwood will be packing his bags with Blount at the end of this year.
SIGNING RB LeGarrette Blount to replace RB Ryan Mathews, will save the Eagles about 4M dollars in cap space this year. It also fills gives us a short yardage and goalline runner who can indeed move a pile. I look forward to using phrases like “Blount Force Trauma”, “beaten with a Blount instrument”, and “Don’t Punt It. Blount It!” I also look forward to the backfield nickname of “Blount and Runt”.
But before we get carried away, fingering each other in celebration, it’s important that we pump the brakes and look at what we really have. There’s been a tendency to look at this signing through one lens, and that only sets us up for disappointment. We know we have a guy with long history of being a pile mover, but we also need to discuss his drawbacks.
One of his chief drawbacks is that he has a long history of being a pile mover. Pile movers (aka powerbacks) have a tendency to go over a cliff suddenly in the NFL. Christian Okoye, Barry Word, Rod Bernstine, Leonard Russell, Bam Morris, Barry Foster, Natrone Means, Mike Alstott,Brandon Jacobs. All of these guys made noise as NFL powerbacks. Not one of them was still nearly as effective at the age of 30. In fact, most were out of football by 30. Did I mention that Blount is 30? Oh, I didn’t? Let me correct that.
LeGarrette Blount is 30.
Blount is not an every down RB. I know people want to point to 2016 like it’s the standard for what he delivers, but the rest of his career strongly indicates that 2016 was a fluke. He hasn’t started more than 8 games in any season since 2011. He also has a career total of 46 receptions over 7 seasons. Basically, every time we trot him out there, we’re telling our opponent that the play is a run. Since he’s 250 pounds, he’s probably not running many Stretch plays, so we’re also saying “He’s coming at you between the tackles!”
He’s also not exactly a home-run hitter. Yes he had 18 rushing TD’s last year, but 13 were from inside the five, and NINE of those were from the one yard line or shorter.
What we have here is a role-player. Odds are, Wendell Smallwood is the “starter” in what will likely be a RB-by-committee approach, that doesn’t allow anyone to get into a rhythm and telegraphs our intentions (Blount = run, Darren Sproles = Screen, etc. etc.).
Blount should have enough juice to contribute if we use him at a pace of about 6 or 7 carries per game (96 to 112 over 16 games). However to expect more than a role player who nets 400 or so rushing yards, is unrealistic. Sorry, but I just felt someone had to speak Blountly about this.
CAN we talk about our Running Back situation for a minute? I don’t know if you’ve taken a good look at it, but at the moment we have:
24 Ryan Mathews 6-0 / 220
30 Corey Clement 5-10 / 220
28 Wendell Smallwood 5-10 208
39 Byron Marshall 5-9 / 201
43 Darren Sproles 5-6 / 190
34 Donnel Pumphrey 5-8 / 176
That’s six RB’s, with a (supposed) cut looming for Mathews. That would leave us with five RB’s, which is what we went with last year (Mathews, Marshall, Sproles, Smallwood, and Kenjon Barner). The make-up of this group however, is what has me concerned.
I forecast a lot of passing on third and short, and in goal line situations with this group; because when Mathews leaves, we don’t have a guy who can win man vs man “in the phone booth”. Mathews breaks tackles, but we’ve seen that Smallwood, Sproles, and Marshall are susceptible to arm tackles. Pumphrey looks to also fall into that category. Unless Clement shows us he can be “that guy” at this level, we don’t have a RB who can move the pile (or even one LB) to win short yardage situations.
The fact is, if our division rivals had our RB situation (after cutting Mathews), we’d be laughing about it. Sproles is scary in bursts, but he’s by no means 250 carry per year RB. In fact, last year’s 94 carries was his career high. Yes, I said career. And you saw how it wore him down. Our RB’s are only scary to RB coach Duce Staley‘s sense of job security. Or perhaps an undrafted, free agent rookie (Clement) can shock the world and save us! Barring that, we have no credibility at the position. That means opponents get to key on shutting down our passing game, with little fear of our sporadic run game hurting them.
(TRIVIA: Can you name which 7-9 team was 11th in the NFL in rushing yards in 2016? It was us.)
We passed on grabbing a bell-cow RB (like Latavius Murray, or Eddie Lacy) in the first round of Free Agency. We passed on picking up a bell-cow in any of the first three rounds of this NFL Draft. At this point, I’m not hopeful that a decent RB will hit another team’s cutting room floor in the second round of Free Agency on June 1st . Odds are that we won’t get LeGarrette Blount (whom I really don’t want), or Christine Michael (whom I’d be willing to gamble on if he got in before OTA’s start Tuesday).
Hate to say this to you fellow fans, but the Eagles absolutely shit the bed on this one. Just a messy wet one that they slept through, and rolled around in for a few hours. The result will likely be more 3rd and short passes than you’d see from a good team. When opponents get wise to this, you’re going to see them jumping QB Carson Wentz‘s short passes more and more. I hope his touchdown number goes up from last year’s 16, because without a legit RB he will almost certainly throw more picks than he did last year (14).
This has me hoping that the Eagles reconsider and keep Mathews on the roster. (Yes, it’s come to that.) I’m not the biggest fan of Mathews, but lucky for us he’s not out the door yet. We can take another crack at replacing him in 2018, but for now we should just miss out on the cap savings we could have gotten from cutting him, and try to save our QB’s ass for at least 16 more games.
GETTING it right. That’s always the most important part. I could have put out a Draft Report on Sunday, but I wanted to make sure I got it right. So I took my time, and I went over every pick again. Repeatedly.
Often times, people base Draft grades on whether or not an NFL team got good college players, instead of if those players stand a chance of helping the team that drafted them. After all, addressing weakness really is the point, right?
Weaknesses. We headed into the Draft needing a starting Cornerback to help our pass rush, or a bell-cow Running Back to loosen things up for QB Carson Wentz. We could have also used an Outside Linebacker who isn’t a liability in coverage, even against Running Backs. Yet we got none of those things.
So what DID we get?
1st round/ DE – Derek Barnett.
Barnett sets the edge and generally doesn’t end up on the ground vs the run. That’s basically what you want from a DE, but he wasn’t brought here to just play DE, he’s here to be a dominant pass rusher. However, when I look at this game vs Alabama, I don’t see a quick get-off. I don’t see great change of direction. I don’t see him using an array of moves to win early against offensive linemen. Name one great pass rusher in the NFL who lacks all of those tools. You can’t, because there aren’t any.
I’ve read that his hands keep him from being blocked long, but I couldn’t find any game tape (games, not highlight reels) that show him doing it consistently. So far I see a guy who will have an NFL career, but I don’t see 10-12 sacks per year from him at this level. If he proves me wrong, AT THIS LEVEL, great. But until then… Grade: C
2nd round/ CB – Sidney Jones.
We needed a CB immediately. Taking one this high was the right move to make. Totally made sense. What would have made more sense, would have been selecting a player who isn’t already sidelined for 2017. Word around the Training Room is that next year, after he rehabs his torn ACL (CORRECTION: An alert reader (thank you Bobby) pointed out that it’s Jone’s Achilles, not ACL that tore. My apologies for the error), Jones will be as good as he ever was. Might even be a steal. That’s the talk.
On tape here, you see a CB who even from a cushion will begin to concede a lot of real estate before the snap. College will allow DB’s that flaw, but in the NFL it’ll quickly earn you a target on your back. Also his man-press doesn’t seem to lead to significant redirection of his assignment. Luckily, these are things which can be corrected with coaching. Provided (as hoped) that he didn’t leave any of his athleticism in the operating room. Grade: C
3rd round/ CB – Rasul Douglas.
Douglas has good size at 6’2, but his near 4.6 speed causes me to question if he can play on the outside at this level. Also on tape you see he can be beaten badly on quick routes inside. That’s alarming because for a 209 pound CB, his press at the line is lacking. (There were two videos I could have chosen to show, but the other one was played in snow. That’s not a fair condition to assess players.)
The plan may be to move him to Free Safety as an insurance policy behind Rod McLeod. However, right now it seems like the Eagles spent an early pick on a guy without a true role. Grade: C
4th round/ WR – Mack Hollins.
I flat out hate this pick. The Eagles went out and drafted a Special Teams coverage player, in the fourth round. Drafted him! Smart teams wait until after the Draft to get those guys. On top of that, as a WR he shuffles his feet at the snap and doesn’t attack his blocking assignments. Grade: F
4th round/ RB – Donnel Pumphrey.
We supposedly got him to replace Darren Sproles at some point. Then again we were sold the same bill of goods last year, regarding Byron Marshall, remember? To his credit, Pumphrey catches the ball pretty well, and is very nimble. If he can get the ball in open space, he can be an asset. Then again that statement likely would be true for most RB’s. Grade: C
5th round/ WR – Shelton Gibson.
I like this WR far more than the first one we selected. Although Gibson is also a drafted Special Teamer coverage guy, aspects of his game that say he may actually be able to contribute as a WR. He doesn’t hesitate at the snap and he aggressively gets into his blocks. (Which could help Pumphrey.) I think you add ST coverage guys after a Draft, but if Gibson can contribute as a WR and help return kicks, then this was a really nice place to take him. Grade: B
5th round/ SS – Nathan Gerry.
This is another horrible pick. Too often he slows down to a jog before the play is even dead. He misses tackles. (Did you see that last part where the QB ran him over?) He can be seen being “extra” after plays, instead of being adequate during them. Grade: F
6th round/ DT – Elijah Qualls.
No penetration. No ability to win one-on-one. Ends up on the ground in a number of ways. Maybe if we tape a cheeseburger to the QB or cover him in BBQ sauce, Qualls might not end up being redirected so easily. I have no idea how this guy got drafted by anyone. I doubt he even makes the practice squad. Grade: F
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Last year we finished in the middle of the league with 34 sacks, which was 14 sacks behind the leader who had 48. DE Brandon Grahamled the NFL with 40 hurries, more of which could have been sacks if we had CB’s who could cover last year. The problem wasn’t our Defensive Line’s ability to get to the QB, it was that they weren’t given the time to do so. So of course we went out and got a starting CB, right? Wrong. We got a DE.
Our CB play was so bad last year, that we got rid of both Starters. While Sidney Jones may or may not become a perennial All-Pro after 2018, that still leaves us with questions about CB in 2017.
We needed to upgrade at WR, so we added two Free Agents, after Howie Roseman said no more “band-aids”. Then we waited until the 4th and 5th rounds to draft Special Teamers.
We needed a bell-cow RB and instead we drafted a player to someday replace a situational player.
Considering that we ended 2016 with a few needs (OLB, OT, RB) that we didn’t address during Free Agency, it’s hard to call this a good Draft, when we continued to ignore those needs.
The question isn’t about whether or not we drafted guys who can play. That really isn’t the question. It really isn’t the issue. The real issue is whether or not we fixed the holes that teams exploited against us in 9 losses out of 16 games last year. The answer is that we didn’t fix those holes. We didn’t utilize this Draft properly. So the truth is, while this was an amazing Draft for Philadelphia, it was a wasted Draft for the Eagles. The Front Office didn’t get it right.
HELP me understand this. In 2016 we had trouble at WR, so we didn’t cut any of our primary WR’s in Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor, or Dorial Green-Beckham. Instead we ADDED Free Agents Alshon Jeffrey and Torrey Smith. Surely we weren’t going keep all five of these guys heading into September, so we’d need to shave at least Agholor. So why then are we drafting more WR’s?
I could see drafting a WR if we were talking about Chris Godwin, whom QB Carson Wentzcould mature with. I could see the logic if we were talking about JuJu Smith-Schuster or if we’d traded up to get a top-shelf guy. What I don’t get, is burning picks on WR’s who seem more like they were drafted with an eye towards them playing Special Teams here. You get those guys after the Draft.
We came into this Draft loaded with NFL quality veterans at the WR position. We had real depth in case of injury, for a team that generally keeps 5 active WR’s. So are we keeping 6 this year, or are we going to get rid of real depth to hold onto a Special Teamer or two? That’s not a question fans ask on Draft day, but come September ‘Cut Downs’, that very conversation will happen among Eagles coaches.
Remember how we kept Bryce Treggs overPaul Turner last year? Neither was drafted, but we deactivated a quality receiver for a fast guy who played Special Teams. Don’t look now, but I think we just set that same scenario up, when we drafted WR Mack Hollis in the 4th and Shelton Gibson in the 5th. In that scenario, who do you cut? Do you keep the quality vets, or do we cut one of our draft picks?
It’s easy to say if we keep five, “Cut Agholor since he’s a bust anyway”. That would mean cutting a vet and at least one of the WR’s we drafted. Given that the WR’s we drafted were 4th and 5th rounders, most fans won’t care if they get cut anyway. The odds are already stacked against 4th and 5th rounders to even make the team. Why bellyache over it, right?
Here is where I need you to explain this to me. If the odds are already long for a 4th and 5th rounder, why draft two guys at a spot where you already have plenty of help? You just stacked a stacked deck even more against either of these picks panning out. It’s basically giving away a draft pick. Or two! This is only made worse by the fact that we still need an OLB, or a RB to fill in for Ryan Mathewsif, WHEN he gets hurt this year.
Maybe you can explain it to me. Please, when you do, use VERY small words. I don’t want to miss anything. Because the Eagles Draft already has me tilting my head like a dog.
OUR first pick in the 2017 Draft was DE Derek Barnett, and it was a stupid pick to make. I’m not saying that the young man won’t get sacks. He will get sacks. Even DE Marcus Smithhas gotten us sacks. I’m not saying Barnett won’t be a decent pro. I’m saying that given our needs at other positions, and how financially leveraged we are along the Defensive Line, it made no sense to pile more money in an area that will only prevent us from spending on other positions where we badly need the help.
I won’t even harp on the whole thing were we passed on talent at other positions. That’s a real issue, but I’ll let that walk until at least after round three. (The Eagles may surprise us. Again.) When I say it was a bad pick, I mean it from a purely mathematical standpoint.
Let’s look at some numbers!
1) Over the next two years we’re still on the hook to DE Vinny Curry for 20M out of a guaranteed 23M (7M base and 2M bonus in 2017 / 9M base and 2M bonus in 2018). After that, we’re free to release him and eat 6M in dead money for two years due to an amortization of his 10M signing bonus.
2) Over the next three years DT Fletcher Cox is guaranteed 49.3M of 63.3M (3M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2017 / 11.5M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2018 / 15.6M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2019). After that we’re free to release him and eat 6.4M in dead money.
I know those numbers turn into a blur when you read them quick like that, but the point is that for these two players, out of about 167M in cap space, we already were on the hook for 18M in 2017, and 28.9M in 2018. Now to that same D-Line we just added a first round contract, which will fall somewhere in the area of 4years, 18M (DE DeForest Buckner #7 in 2016) and 4years, 10M (DE Shaq Lawson #19 in 2016).
We are loading money into one area, and it will keep us from being able to spread it around into other positions like OT, CB, and WR; none of which are ever cheap when you try to sign or re-sign quality players. This doesn’t even mention positions like LB, and RB which we badly need help at.
In the meantime, some fans are cheering this pick like it means the end of Curry. What those fans fail to understand is that Curry will impact this roster for at least the next two years. At least. That’s regardless of how things play out. Whether he starts the next 32 games, or is cut the moment you read these words, Curry will seriously impact the Eagles until at least 2019. The real question is would you like to try and recoup some value over these next two years, or would you rather see him cut (after never starting a single game) and just swallow it?
On the other hand, people talking like Barnett will be the next Reggie Whitebecause he broke White’s college sack record, crack me up. If they’re looking for Barnett to get us 13, 18, 21 and 18 sacks in his first four years, despite not being quick twitch, possessing an explosive step, or not being great at changing direction, boy are they gonna be disappointed. How many great NFL pass rushers are playing in the NFL today without at least one of those tools? How many? Oh yeah, that’s right. Not one.
This isn’t the case of a talent (Barnett) that was too good to pass up. There will be no takers in a trade for a guy (Curry) making 9M per year who has never started a game. This is an unforced error that will limit our options at other spots on the roster. We didn’t administer forethought to this pick. As a result, we’ve painted ourselves into a corner. (Ironically by not selecting one.)
Keep in mind, when these predictions come out, no one knows who will be drafted, and by which team. This is an assessment of the teams as they are staffed by veteran players with track records.Rookies don’t usually shake up the NFC East division, so there’s a pretty good chance that what you see here, will be how it shakes out for the year.
Yikes! Last year showed a couple exceptions to the general rule cited in the above Preamble. The first example was the Dallas Cowboys. They powered their way to the top of the division behind the play of two rookies, one of which was a QB forced to make 16 starts, when the long-time incumbent pulled up lame. (Again.) The Philadelphia Eagles were the second exception. They thought so much of their rookie QB that they traded away their Starter, and let the rook do his thing all year long. While that may have cost them a game or two last year, it was clear to fans, media and Free Agents alike, that the Eagles may be onto something.
Now we separate the men from the boys:
Strongest Offense:DALLAS
While Dallas is returning all of their skill position Starters, they suffered a couple of hits to their offensive line. Those hits are simple enough to patch over, but where those hits will show up is in depth. Last season when La’el Collins went down, there was a player of Ron Leary‘s caliber to step in for him. This year they have no such luxury.
Will the Cowboys be who they were last year? No they won’t. Teams have film on them now, and the system they run is so simple, it shouldn’t take much to slow them down. That said, each of Dallas’s rivals have some issue that keeps their own offenses from being complete, let alone scary. The Cowboys are the only team in the division who are not suffering from a key deficiency.
Weakest Offense:WASHINGTON
I can tell you firsthand that the loss of WR DeSean Jackson changes the way teams play against your offense. It also takes away a number of easy underneath options that a QB comes to think of as their’s for the taking. Jackson was on the roster when Kirk Cousinsbecame the Starter, so he is coming into a completely new reality in 2017. (Assuming that his mind is on 2017, and not on preserving his body for a long-term contract in San Francisco next year.)Washington’s one-dimensional run game won’t be of much help either, since most of it is derived from what the offensive line creates, instead of what the RB creates when the line gives him an opening.
While they have a good offensive line and a TE situation worthy of envy, they don’t have the glue to hold it all together. Their losses on defense will require them to throw more, and may yield more yards and touchdowns, but if you look under the surface at the end of 2017, you will see a clearly less effective and diminished offense on this team.
Strongest Defense:PHILADELPHIA
Dallas’s junior GM, Stephen Jones is on recordagreeing that his team is worse off since Free Agency. Washington was already in the toilet before they lost DE Chris Baker. New York losing DT Johnathan Hankins and not being settled at MLB, puts a hole right down the center of their run defense (ranked #3 in 2016). Also, nothing so far has been done to bolster their 23rd ranked pass defense. Philadelphia on the other hand has added depth up front, but still hasn’t clearlyaddressed their Secondary concerns. However, their 2016 pass defense was ranked 13th not 23rd. (Note: There isn’t a team in this division that doesn’t have issues with it’s Secondary)
This isn’t a question of the strongest of the weak. There is no doubt about the Eagles strength at every level of their defense. Particularly on the Defensive Line. Better still, they have depth in most places. Last year the Eagles weakness was at CB, and so both starters are no longer on the roster. Patrick Robinson was to added to play slot CB, not as an outside starter. The remaining CB’s aren’t household names, but given the way Jalen Mills played in 2016 (his rookie season), he might become one soon.
Weakest Defense:DALLAS
They literally have problems at every level of their defense, and in every facet of it. Talent, depth, experience, andeven health coming into OTA’s. Everything is wrong here.This defense is going to allow too many games to turn into shootouts, and force their offense away from the run just to keep up. Barring every other team in NFC East suffering a rash of injuries, this team has no shot at 12-4 again. The GM responsible for creating this mess should be fi– oh wait… Never mind.
Strongest Special Teams: PHILADELPHIA
This isn’t even close. Kicking, Punting, Returns and limiting return yards, The Eagles are the only team in the division that is good in all of these areas. Not just okay, or passable. Legitimately good. They are proficient across the board, where the other three teams have at least one deficiency.
Weakest Special Teams:NEW YORK
Playing musical Kickers as you habitually post lackluster numbers, while also making no attempt to improve neither your personnel nor your coaching staff… That says in plain language that the organization doesn’t give a damn about this facet of the game.
Projected Winner: PHILADELPHIA(10-6)
After being 0-2 these last 2 years picking the Eagles, it scares the hell out me to be picking them again after a second 7-9 season. I kept going over this to make sure I wasn’t overlooking something, or missing something, because I have no interest in wearing 0-3. However, the fact is, right now, before the Draft, as these teams are staffed today, the Eagles are the team best equipped to survive the 17 week meat grinder known as an NFL season.
The Eagles are the only team in the NFC East that didn’t get worse in some regard, duringthis offseason. While it has yet to be proven that they fixed their 2016 offensive problems, those problems weren’t ignored (like the giants pass defense for example). The Eagles attempted to fix their problems, and so they run the risk of actually improving in 2017.
The same cannot be said for the defenses of the Cowboys, Redskins and giants. Dallas’s defense is so bad that their Front Office is already making excuses. Now that they have definitely lost Hankins at DT, New York’s run defense (ranked 3rd) is likely to fall steeply. Their pass defense was already an issue in 2016, and so far, they‘ve done nothing to fix or even upgrade it.Washington’s defense was already crap in 2016, and now they have offense to match it. In fact, their offense (both in the long and short term), have football pundits shaking their heads from coast to coast.
Look Out For: DALLAS
I don’t think they stand a chance in Hell, of upsetting the Eagles, but it would h ave been tacky to write “NOBODY” as the team to look out for. Since the Pokes won the division last, I figured they were owed the respect of a write-in.
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 