PART One of the the twelve part series
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NFL
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PHILADELPHIA fans. Lincoln Financial Field.
It’s a night game. Twenty-five degrees outside, and the mercury is creeping to the bottom of the thermometer as if it can huddle against itself for warmth. There’s a guy making $15 an hour sitting in a $300 seat, next to guy who makes $12 an hour. Neither can really afford to be there, but neither can afford to be anywhere else tonight.
Breath as dense as smoke leaves their mouths with the words “Fly Eagles Fly.” The smell of beer and the hum of possibilities. Someone nearby has a phone with “Mummer’s Strut” as a ring tone. The atmosphere is festive. Tonight victory is assured, since the Saints have never won a cold weather playoff game. History is on our side for a change.
That night, Saints history would be made and we would fall to them.
In most cities across our great nation, when their football season ends, their fans turn their bitter eyes to hockey, or basketball, or the wait for spring training. It usually depends on which type of pro teams they have there. Philadelphia boasts an NHL team, an NBA team, and an MLB team. Once that Eagles season came to an end, we had our pick of options to fixate on. We could have used any one of them as a distraction, and hid from a loss that could have haunted us.
But we didn’t do that did we?
Despite the fact that we have a franchise from every relevant pro league in America (including Soccer), Philadelphians never really fold-up camp on an NFL season. Here you can talk Eagles 365 days a year, and nobody will say “Hey buddy, it’s the wrong time of year for that”. Not unless he wants to be hit in the teeth with the edge of a ceramic plate. We take our Eagles seriously in this city. We’re rabid here. Unapologetically so.
I used to think we were misunderstood, but that’s not it at all. Other fan bases understand us plenty. And THAT is what they have their issues with. Other fan bases understand that they don’t have our pride. Remember that Forty-niners/Cowboys game where thousands of Cowboys fans sold their tickets to Niner fans? That could never happen here. It’s simply not possible. Other fan bases understand that they don’t have our loyalty. Five decades with no Super Bowl and still the Linc fills to standing room only. Other fan bases understand that they don’t intimidate players like we do. Rival players routinely say they hate playing here because of the fans. Other fan bases understand that our former players love Philly BECAUSE OF US. Players who leave here overwhelmingly speak highly of us. Some even kiss our logo when they return.
Allen Iverson comes home.
LeSean McCoy’s first game back
When have you EVER seen that elsewhere? (Okay, okay Micheal Jordan did it, but not after playing for someone else.)
So no. There’s no misunderstanding. Rival fans understand us perfectly. They understand, that we’re the best.
WITH his rookie deal expiring at the end of the 2015 season, QB Sam Bradford will officially become a Free Agent. He will now be able to peddle his wares to the highest bidder. The going rate (from what I keep reading) is 25 million dollars per year, and much ballyhoo has been made about how his play improved down the stretch of this last season. Based on that improvement many people are asking the 25 million dollar question: Should the Eagles be the highest bidder for Bradford’s services?
For two very important reasons, the answer to that question is “No”.
First, team owner Jeff Lurie keeps talking about needing to have a franchise QB. This raises the question of whether Bradford qualifies. I can’t think of one reputable source willing to go out on a limb and use that term and Bradford’s name in the same sentence. That term being, franchise QB. Some people are willing to debate with you over if Bradford is one, and right there they lose. If a guy is franchise QB (even if they hate him) people acknowledge that he is, they don’t debate it.
Secondly, Bradford improved in a system that A) is no longer here, and B) will replaced with a system he was less than stellar in, back in St. Louis under Pat Shurmur.
So there you have it. Sam Bradford is clearly not worth the goddamned money. Now let us all brace for the 6 year, 32 million per year deal he’ll get, because this is the Eagles, and our Front Office specializes in giving Eagles fans ulcers and nosebleeds.
JEFF Lurie may have fired Chip Kelly just in time. While “The Idiot Kelly” (TIK) may have given away some of our best offensive weapons, it’s not like he brought in guys like Reno Mahe to replace them. While TIK’s moves were generally downgrades, it’s not like we have empty shelves over here.
If you look around you’ll read a lot about the holes on our roster, and how big a job resurrecting the team will be.
Not so fast. We have some issues. That part is beyond debate. However, we’re far from being a long-term project. Whether or not the weapons we have can be dangerous, is more a matter of how we use what we have, and how we augment it.
First lets look at our problems:
If we re-signed every Free Agent we have, QB Sam Bradford would still scare no one, and our interior Offensive Line is dreadful. For years now, cute movement schemes have hidden C Jason Kelce‘s lack of power, but teams started to pick on him right out of the gate in 2015. So don’t expect anything better from him in 2016. Our starting Guards are decent back-ups, but on 3rd and 2 neither man is the guy you’d bet on to make a hole for your RB.
Defensively, odds are strong that we’re going back to a 4-3 front. Most of us think OLB Connor Barwin is a great guy, but anyone who knows football will tell you that he’s a bad fit for a 4-3. He isn’t strong enough for DE, and doesn’t cover well enough for OLB. For that matter OLB Brandon Graham is no better in coverage and may even actually be worse. (Graham however, can play DE.)
We have a number of holes and that 2nd round pick we gave away to get Bradford will hurt us in the Draft, but we can fix some of this before we spend the first red cent. The first thing we need to do is realize that the only way to get better is to rely on the Draft.
Where we’re strong:
We’re as deep as any team in the NFL at RB. And if you look around the NFL, no one is doubting that RB DeMarco Murray will bounce back in 2016. I can’t imagine that he’ll see 900+ yards again so long as he shares a backfield with RB Ryan Mathews, but who cares as long as they can sustains drives. We have some young talent and depth at WR, and now Jordan Matthews will get a chance to be the guy some of us know he can be. The West Coast Offense generally favors bigger wideouts and now we’ll get to see Matthews matched up on the outside.
If DE Vinny Curry comes back as a starter, we have the makings of a dangerous Defensive Line by playing Curry at LDE, Fletcher Cox at LDT, RDT Bennie Logan and RDE Graham. ILB Jordan Hicks can likely make the jump to MLB, and ILB Mychal Kendricks has already played SLB very well in his rookie year here. He also has the speed, strength and versatility to do it again. If Malcolm Jenkins stays at SS, Eric Rowe moving to FS only opens the door for CB Denzel Rice to push for the starting spot opposite Byron Maxwell. Maxwell might now get a chance to play in a scheme more like the one he was in as a Seahawk. He’ll never be a bargain, but now (in the economics of football), he might start being worth his contract. If we can re-sign Walter Thurmond (sanely), it only makes us stronger in terms of depth and when we have to play heavy Nickle or Dime. If we can’t keep him, well hey, that’s hardly the end of the world.
So don’t be too broken up over our roster. There are only tons of question marks if you lack imagination, and are stuck in TIK’s way of seeing these players.
Now here’s how you fix what’s broken:
Fixing the O-Line and QB:
Move RT Lane Johnson over to LT and slide Jason Peters inside to LG. Peters has had some trouble with quickness on the edge this year, but still is as strong as ever. Moving him inside allows him to mentor Johnson and maybe even mask some of Kelce’s power issues. Besides, it’s easier to build the right side of an O-Line than the left side, or to maintain chemistry when every other spot is new. Spend an early pick on a Guard and swoop around later for a RT.
At QB, let Bradford walk and sign Robert Griffin instead. He’ll be cheaper and has more incentive to sign here than anywhere else. Then you grab a rookie QB in the 3rd or 4th round. I’d like to take one earlier, but nobody in this draft who’s worth it will be there at 13, let alone 17th or 18th (HINT! HINT!) So don’t reach early. Better to build a line and take a chance on Griffin, or on finding a rookie gem. If Griffin gets hot early and we’re winning, keep playing him. If he falters or gets hurt, play the rookie. We’re either winning or developing our future. We win either way.
Fixing the Defense:
Resign Curry with (some financial) apologies for not starting him sooner. At WLB I roll the dice on Marcus Smith and spend a Draft pick. A guy like Smith had no business playing LOLB, yet that’s what he was tabbed to do under TIK. I make 2016 his last year here unless he proves something, but I hand him the rope to climb with or hang himself with. I don’t simply put him on the bench for a year, cut him, and leave questions out there about “what if”.
Fixing our missing second round pick and such:
Here is where you’ll need vision and imagination. Before you shoot this down, make sure you read through this part a second time. I’m trying to give you the large picture.
We pick 13th in the Draft. If we’re smart, we want to draft a Guard which we could get in the second round, except we don’t have a second round pick. Enter the Falcons picking 17th or the Colts picking 18th. Atlanta had only 19 sacks this year so they’ll be looking for another pass rusher. The Colts did better with 31 sacks, but still need a guy. We can offer both teams Connor Barwin and let them swap spots with us in round one, in exchange for their second round pick. Since the Falcons and Colts pick one after the other and need the same thing, I’d make the offer very public and put a clock on it. If they know each other is after that move up, there’s now pressure to accept our offer faster. We can’t use Barwin as a player, but we can use him to sweeten the pot. This way we get a second rounder, an open roster spot, his cap savings, and it only costs us a guy we can’t use anyway. Meanwhile they get a guy who’s still 29, proven in two places, with a contract that goes through 2019 with no crazy jumps in it. It’s a win-win. Besides, I’m sick of seeing us simply release talent that we can’t use. Why not get something for him?
QB Mark Sanchez packaged with one of our third rounders (80th) could net us the Texans 2nd rounder (53rd). He likely wouldn’t be a starter for them, but if they can’t get a decent rookie QB at #22 in round one, Sanchez is a much nicer fallback than another year of Brian Hoyer and/or Brandon Weeden.
I’d also try to get DE Taylor Hart, ILB Kiko Alonso, NT Beau Allen, and our fourth rounder (111th) out to San Fran for their third rounder (69th) and either C Marcus Martin or G Brandon Thomas, neither of which really fits what TIK does. Allen is just a guy, and Alonso’s knee has too much wear and tear for us to trust it the way TIK does.
So relax. We’re far from a dumpster fire over here. We need work, but there’s no reason that we can’t be ready to win the NFC East in 2016.
RECENTLY Comcast Sportsnet put out a story saying that OT Lane Johnson, WR Jordan Matthews, TE Zach Ertz, DE Fletcher Cox, CB Eric Rowe and LB Jordan Hicks were among half a dozen building blocks that the next coach could base his program on.
This is wrong. Dead wrong.
Not knowing who the coach is means we have no idea what their philosophy may be, what system they may run, or whether or not the new coach will see any of the aforementioned players as the sort of leadership that the new regime demands.
Let me explain.
Every Eagles fan knows that Lane Johnson was drafted with an eye to moving him from RT to LT when Jason Peters moves on. However the new coach may see that very differently, and opt to draft a LT during the 2017 offseason, especially if Peters returns to LT for the 2016 season.
Jordan Matthews wouldn’t be a slot receiver for practically any other coach besides the guy who drafted him. That means now he likely moves outside where he hasn’t established himself as a go-to WR yet (though I think he would). Until he proves himself to be “That Guy” he’ll continue to be just “a guy”, and so not a bona fide building block.
Zach Ertz has never quite lived up to the hype of his potential. While he might be a tempting toy to have, head coaches who waste too much energy trying to mine potential from a guy or two, have a high tendency to get fired. Likely the new coach won’t come in and marry himself to Ertz the way that fans have.
Fletcher Cox is a building block. Even coming off his best year playing as a 3-4 DE, I still wonder if he’s being wasted based on his performance as a rookie playing as a 4-3 DT. He was dominant inside, even though he was a just a pup, and his DC was an Offensive Line coach the year before. Makes me wonder…
Let’s be honest. In 2015 Eric Rowe never sees the field if CB Nolan Carroll stays healthy. Carroll got hurt so Rowe started the last 5 games of the season. He was part of a Secondary that gave up 11 TD’s to just 3 picks over that span. For Rowe’s part he made just one play vs the ball (a deflection) compared to 18 tackles. Rowe is a better Safety than Corner, but until someone sees that, he can’t legitimately be referred to as a building block.
We all love Jordan Hicks, but if this system changes does he have a natural position here? He’s not a prototypical thumper MLB, and he REALLY doesn’t seem to have the speed or change of direction skills needed to be a game-changing OLB at this level. That’s not to say he can’t play MLB, it’s just yet to be seen if he can. With that in question, legitimately calling him a building block is murky.
In all truth, we have no idea what we have on the roster until we know who’s calling the shots. Right now everyone on the roster is a question mark. The sad fact is, they will remain so as long as the Eagles coaching search includes candidates from every direction and indicates no clear vision for how 2016 will be different from 2015.
OWNER Jeff Lurie wasted no time cutting out the cancer on his team. Former Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly didn’t even get a chance to coach the final game of the season, or give a farewell address to the players. I almost said “his players” but unless you played at Oregon, I have severe doubts that he has many (if any) players in that locker room who considered themselves “his” guys.
Considering how much of his coaching staff was handpicked to coach specific techniques for his system; and considering how many soft and candy-ass players he bought in here, there will be a lot of debris from the tear down that is soon to follow. So lets take a look at what it will likely mean.
The coaching staff will turn over. Defensive Coordinator Bill Davis may as well not even show up for all the good he’s done. Fans hate him, and as you know (if you’ve been following this website for the last two years), his system is full of bad concepts which teams exploit almost in their sleep. If we switch from a 3-4 to a 4-3 it would make sense for the entire staff to go except for maybe Defensive Backs coach Cory Undlin. This unit was a train wreck before he got here and it’s hard to pin much blame on a guy for struggling within an already badly flawed system.
The worst part is the inability of this staff to develop our youth. Offensive Line coach Jeff Stoutland didn’t develop any of his second string charges into competent linemen, and even starting RT Lane Johnson is nowhere near where his potential suggested he could be when he was drafted. In the last two drafts we added WR’s Nelson Agholor in the first round, Jordan Matthews in the second round, and Josh Huff in the third round. While Matthews seems productive at first glance (145 catches, 1815 yards and 14 TD’s in two seasons) his production as you can see, has been HIGHLY erratic. Our WR’s mostly disappointing numbers (Agholor has 21 catches for 260 yards and a TD this year; Huff has 35 catches for 410 yards and 3 TD’s in two years) have more to do with poor coaching than anything else.
And then there’s the blatant favoritism. Would anyone care to explain why 2nd round pick DE Vinny Curry has never started a game in four years, yet DE’s Brandon Bair (FA) and Taylor Hart (5th round) have? By the way size isn’t the issue, as Curry is 279 to Bair’s 280 and Hart’s 281.
In fact, aside from Special Teams coach Dave Fipp, Running Backs coach Duce Staley, and the aforementioned Undlin, I’d broom the whole staff.
It also means that you can just about kiss goodbye to QB Sam Bradford. Kelly trading away a second rounder for him was almost the equivalent to the purchase of Manhattan. Lurie will likely want to air out the stink of that trade.
Player movement in a regime change is hard to predict, but when you bring in a new coach he usually arrives with a wrecking ball. So as for PLAYERS to package in a trade or let go of, the smart list looks like:
QB’s Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez: Draft a QB and get a back-up who can run the new system.
RB Kenjon Barner: He’s one dimensional and we’re loaded with the other three in a real system.
WR Riley Cooper: We never needed him. Eat the dead money and open up a roster spot.
TE Brent Celek: I love him but we need the cap space, and it’s time.
OT’s Jason Peters, Dennis Kelly, Matt Tobin: Peters is done (unless he moves inside) and the other two are disasters.
OG’s All but our starters: We need new starters but our current starters would be decent depth.
DL Beau Allen and anyone who played at Oregon: Cedric Thornton can rotate at DT in a 4-3.
OLB’s Connor Barwin, Marcus Smith: Barwin is good but doesn’t fit anywhere in a 4-3.
ILB DeMeco Ryans: Is more valuable as a leader than as an athlete at this point.
CB Nolan Carroll: I let him walk in Free Agency and let Denzel Rice push to start.
S Walter Thurmond and Chris Maragos: Move Eric Rowe to FS.
Again you don’t have to RELEASE all of these guys. Packaging and trading some of them with picks insures that we’d be in better positions to replace the players we can’t really use, with pieces that fit better. I don’t know about you, but I’m sick of seeing guys walk for nothing.
SUNDAY 8:30 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
ODDSMAKERS across the spectrum expect the Cardinal to come into the Linc and leave holding up a “W”. They almost make it seem like it’s an automatic. However, with having to face Green Bay next week, and then division rival Seattle the following week, Arizona may be looking past our 6 – 7 team just enough to let down their guard.
EAGLES
Defense
Did you know that even after these last two games, our Defense is still ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed, 21st in points allowed and 24th in passing yards allowed. Due to three huge (two of which were scoring) plays made by our Special Teams in the last two games, we are 6 – 7 instead of 4 – 9. It’s great to get to get great Special Teams play, but you can’t bank on splash plays by that unit to bail you out every week.
Teams are still moving the ball and scoring against our Defense. There will be no “fixes”enacted this deep into the season. We are what we are. That said, I have no idea how this unit is supposed to stop or even slow down this weeks opponent.
Offense
Depending on who you talk to, this Offense is either about to seriously rev up, or continue to do what it’s done all year, which means being a lower mid-level offense (15th rushing, 21st passing) coached by what was supposed to be a genius.
Optimists will tell you that QB Sam Bradford has only thrown 2 interceptions in his last 5 starts. They tell you that over that span he’s gone 3 – 2. They leave out the fact that in those 5 starts he’s only thrown 5 touchdowns. Conversely, this weeks opponent in his last 5 games, has 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. (He also has 2 lost fumbles). Over that span he’s 5 – 0. One of those guys has numbers which all but lock up a division. The other is a 13 million dollar mistake.
So this week we’ll play “Guess The Starter” at RB, cross our fingers that LT Jason Peters can string together a whole game, pray that C Jason Kelce doesn’t snap the ball past the QB, hope for a meaningful contribution from either Josh Huff or Nelson Agholor, and cringe when WR Jordan Matthews gets hit in the back after running yet another 4 yard crossing route.
Ahhhh, good times.
.
Cardinals
Defense
#7 vs scoring, #5 vs the run. They can reach your passer and they have a shark tank of a secondary that can take the ball from you. There is no standout pass-rusher unless you count DE Dwight Freeney. (Yes, that Dwight Freeny) Then again not many people would call 4 sacks by Week 15 a standout number.
At first glance they look water-tight, but there’s a chink in their armor. They play a 3-3-5 concept that they mask as a 3-4. They do that by playing a 211 pound SS at ILB. (It’s not dissimilar to what we used to do last year when trying to take advantage of Nate Allen‘s Safety speed when they played him in the box.)
As a result of using a SS at ILB it means they can be out powered in the middle of their defense. Put bluntly: This is a game that is right in the wheelhouse of RB DeMarco Murray. Now let’s see if he gets the ball.
Offense
I read years ago that QB Carson Palmer sees passing lanes like he has ESP. That statement has echoed in my head ever since. Every time I see him throw a WR open, I feel a sense of bitter envy for something most Eagles fans don’t even realize they’ve been missing out on for a quarter century. If you’re one of those “I only watch the Eagles” type of fans, you have no clue what we’re even missing.
This offense spreads you out, and has a run game component that takes advantage of spacing. It’s the grown-up version of what we run, without all the gimmicks thrown in to try and deceive. As it was designed to engage in weekly shoot-outs, they average 31 points per game and have actually rung that bell 7 times in 13 games. So that 31 point average isn’t the result of a fluke game here and there. These guys can actually get the pig to the pen.
BOTTOM LINE
Winning a shootout with this team is highly unlikely. If the Eagles are going to win this game, we have to find our offensive consistency and run the ball up the gut. I don’t like the match-up of our QB vs their secondary, but their LB’s can be exploited in coverage. I like the idea of TE Brent Celek on intermediate routes to loosen up the box and give the run room to get push inside.
Is that the way to go? Certainly. Will Kelly draw up such a game plan? Not likely. We could beat the Cardinals by out-toughing them, but that’s not how this team is built to think.
PREDICTION
Cardinals 29 – Eagles 19
SUNDAY 8:30 Lincoln Financial Field Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
OUR place atop the division is by no means secure, as it’s really only by the slightest of technicalities (head to head tie breaker), that we even have the spot. This week however we can show the world that we’re a team to be taken seriously, IF we beat the 5-0 Panthers and look good while doing so. Having beaten this team 45 – 21 last year in their own home means that us simply escaping with a win, will do nothing to help the perception of our team.
EAGLES
Defense
The climb to the top of the division was done without big splashes coming from our 2014 offseason Free Agent acquisitions, instead the boost has come from guys like DE Fletcher Cox, rookie ILB Jordan Hicks, and CB Nolan Carroll. No one could argue that this is a top 10 defense, but beating this unit is by no means an automatic. If they don’t have to carry the team, if they keep playing at their recent level, the Eagles could be better than a mere playoff qualifier.
And yes, I just dropped the “P” word. Division leader comes with certain perks.
Offense
Power running, power running, power running. None of that zone shit. Getting cute last year saw us run for fewer than 40 yards. Mostly what happened during last year’s blowout, was we capitalized on 3 interceptions (by Nate Allen, Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher) and some smart, TURNOVER FREE football played by QB Mark Sanchez. We likely won’t get the breaks we got last year, so why do what didn’t work last year?
Also the more we run the cleaner and more upright QB Sam Bradford stays. Considering how erratic he’s been with his play this year, it would be wise to not put this game on his shoulders. Feeding the rock to RB DeMarco Murray is not only good for my fantasy football team, but also the Eagles. We would be wise to make sure to do so this week.
Panthers
Defense
This unit has a few guys who I’ve lusted for in prior Drafts and so it’s hard not to look at it’s performance and feel pride in my ability to spot talent, but bitterness that it’s not here. They get pass rush and sack production from different players, from different positions in their defense. So there is no “one guy” to stop.
What’s freaky is them also finding a way to mine value out of S Kurt Coleman. I think that’s to be commended but if there’s away to attack this team, I’d say it’s by targeting him with the the long ball. (Isolating him against a second slot reciever will get him out of the box. At which point you switch over to power running, power running, power running.)
Offense
Cam Newton. This unit is joke if he goes down.
If we cut off the head, the body dies.
Bottom Line
Stop Newton and we stop Carolina. It’s one-stop shopping. Newton threw for over 300 yard and 3 TD’s against us last year. Then again, we sacked him 9 times and hit him a lot more; so he also threw 3 interceptions. (When I said he threw 3 TD’s I didn’t mention that one of them was to CB Bradley Fletcher.) So the Rx is simple. Beat on him. A lot. And then beat him some more. This is real simple stuff folks. You walk Jordan Hicks up to the line of scrimmage and have him holler “COLLARBONE!” and then send the house a couple times early. Make no mistake, he remembers the ass whipping we put on him last year. So this year you bring it all back. You harrass him. You intimidate him. And then you break him. This game is ours if we’re willing to push down the accelerator with both feet.
Prediction
Eagles 26 – Carolina 19
SUNDAY 1:00 FedEx Field Landover, MD
EAGLES fans, we’re about to find out a lot about our team this weekend. This is not the same pushover, “see them on the schedule and write two wins down in ink” Redskins from the last few years. These Redskins plays with a bit of a chip on their shoulder on both sides of the ball. This game will serve as an early season measuring stick for our Eagles.
EAGLES
Defense
It’s the same as the last two years. We’re fine against the run (7th), but we still rank among the bottom feeders against the pass (24th). Our defense gets turnovers, but they play too many minutes. (And yes I said minutes, not snaps.)
This week we get an opponent that relies heavily on the run, so unless they decide to give us a big dose of their passing game, or our guys get gassed out there, stopping the opponent should be right in our wheelhouse this week
Offense
Guess who the ranks dead last in the NFL in yard per game? That’s right, the Rams (274.3 yards per game). And who is just above them? Us (285.3 yards per game). We are 30th in the NFL at rushing yards per game, and so far we have a 2.7 yards per carry average. Our passing attack is ranked 23rd.
Some blame QB Sam Bradford, some blame our WR’s for the 10-15 drops so far. The truth is it’s the Offensive Line. Specifically the Guards. Notice how last week the O-line played better and we still won, despite a pedestrian 50%, 118 yard performance from our QB? When we committed to a basic power running approach (keeping it simple for our Guards) early on, it set a tone and allowed us to dictate the action. It’ll be interesting to see if we try that again this week or if we try to go back to what wasn’t working two weeks ago.
Redskins
Defense
Keep in mind that while the ‘skins are ranked high across the board, they also have played three offenses that rank very low or have consistency issues. That having been said, this is a feisty bunch. If you were in a bar fight and the Redskins defense had your back, you’d be in good company. Whatever we get from this team we’ll have to take, because they will not give us anything. They have a 69.4% stop rate on 3rd down, and in three games have only given up 4 first downs due to penalty. (We’ve given up 8).
Offense
The Redskins have allowed more QB hits (63) than any team in the NFL (even though the Steelers and Ravens have each played one more game). QB Kirk Cousins is nothing special, but he’s a low level starter/high level back-up who can manage a game. Just don’t ask him to put a team on his back. The bread and butter of this unit is the run game. That 4th place run game is no mirage.
BOTTOM LINE
This game will be a fight. Two 1-2 teams, who are division rivals looking to avoid the basement. Two QB’s trying to legitimize themselves as starters. Two coaches trying to prove that their way is the right way. Ascension in the division and pride are on the line. However, on the road, in nasty weather…Bad weather doesn’t favor fast paced offenses. In fact it tends to magnify miscues. (Remember how bad we looked for ¾ of the Snow Bowl? Thank god we were facing a dome team!) I think Mother Nature teams up with D.C. this weekend.
PREDICTION
Redskins 23 – Eagles 18
CONVENTIONAL sports wisdom says that it’s better to have a young roster, because it gives you a longer period of time in which to build a competitive and possibly dominant team, before (like all things) it peaks and declines. In sports this period is referred to as “The Window”.
Over the decades that theory has largely been sound, since wiser teams have been able to amass young talent, develop it, and ride it to generally positive results. However, in the NFL since the onset of modern free agency and now exacerbated by the current CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement), holding onto the young talent you amass beyond a few years, has gotten harder to do than it used to be.
Even if you can stockpile draft picks by trading down (like the Eagles and Patriots are famous for doing), developing and holding onto a number of mid-range to very good young players, is extremely difficult. In an era where teams commonly overpay to lure talent in free agency, you’re basically kissing part of your nucleus goodbye, once a few rookie contracts expire. You’re almost penalized years down the line, for having had good Drafts. San Francisco and Seattle are prime examples of that. So you need to be young, but not beholden to youth.
Aside from contract issues, youth has a way of being…well…young. By that I mean inexperienced. Not just in general, but particularly in big moments where emotion can overpower a player and make his mind his own worst enemy. Having youth on your team is great for any roster, but a predominantly young roster can lead to a lack of credible leadership.
A young roster with no history of playoff success or regular season success, is a recipe for disaster. It propagates the notion that you can lose a lot one year, and due to nothing more than youth, the key culprits get to return the following year. (The Eagles defense fell apart in 2013, returned 9 or 10 of 11 starters and then fell apart again in 2014. For example.)
So you see, too much youth can be a disadvantage. Everyone is dirt cheap at first but if they achieve success you soon can lose key players. They’ll stay cheap if they suck, but then by that point you’ll be drafting more young players into a losing culture.
A young roster in today’s “win or be fired” NFL? No thanks. Due to the way business is handled in the NFL today, the old model and the conventional thinking that went along with it, now need to be re-examined.
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