THE Eagles never fail to surprise me with a handful of personnel decisions every year. Nevertheless, I rarely miss an opportunity to try and guess the 53 man roster. I’m never 100% right, but it’s just good fun. This is my take on what I think our roster should look like for the 2017-2018 season. Give it a look and tell me what you think we’ll look like in a week.
OFFENSE: 23
QB: (2) Carson Wentzand Nick Foles. (I don’t really see the Eagles holding onto 3 active QB’s to start the season. That may change as it wears on, but Week One, I expect just two.)
RB: (4) LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood, Darren Sproles, Corey Clement. (I’m thinking Smallwood is the teams primary Kick (not Punt) Returner.)
WR: (5)Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, Nelson Agholor, Mack Hollins, Bryce Treggs. (The last spot may go to Marcus Johnson, but it shouldn’t.)
TE: (3) Zach Ertz, Brent Celek, Trey Burton. (I liked some of what I saw from Billy Brown, but Burton gives us more versatility, which is awesome in a 3rd stringer.)
OT: (4) Jason Peters, Lane Johnson, Dillon Gordon, Halapoulivati Vaitai.
G: (4) Brandon Brooks, Isaac Seumalo, Stefen Wisniewski, Chance Warmack. (I think Warmack sealed his deal in the last preseason game, which allows Wisniewski to serve more as a reserve Center.)
C: (1) Jason Kelce
DEFENSE:27
DE: (5) Brandon Graham, Vinny Curry, Derek Barnett, Chris Long, Steven Means. (I hate the idea of droppingAlex McCalister and possibly seeing him end up with a division rival. But you can’t keep everybody.)
DT: (5) Fletcher Cox, Timmy Jernigan, Beau Allen, Destiny Vaeao, Elijah Qualls. (We likely don’t keep 5, but if we do, Qualls sticks because he’s a draft pick. I’d rather keep Gabe Wright or Josh Hamilton.)
OLB: (4) Nigel Bradham, Mychal Kendricks, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Don Cherry. (KGH and Cherry are mostly Special Teamers. If DE Alex McCalister were even half-decent dropping into zone coverage, a case could be made to shoehorn him in here.)
ILB: (2) Jordan Hicks, Najee Goode, Joe Walker. (Walker makes it based on Special Teams play.)
S: (4) Malcolm Jenkins, Rodney McLeod, Chris Maragos, Jaylen Watkins
CB: (6) Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills,Patrick Robinson, Rasul Douglas, Dexter McDougle, C.J. Smith
GIVEN all the talent added up front during this offseason, and with him staying home for OTA’s, the release of DE Marcus Smith didn’t really come as a shock to anyone. Drafting DE Derek Barnett could be seen as getting an infusion of young talent. That said, you don’t add a veteran like DE Chris Long, and trade for a DT like Timmy Jernigan, if you’re happy with what you already have.
Trading away OL Allen Barbre, on hand has me a little nervous, because his ability to start at G and RT were nice assets to have. On the other hand, it says the Eagles feel good about not just the depth at G, but that there’s also someone to believe in at reserve OT.
The early hope is that I was wrong last year about OT Halapoulivati Vaitai, because if the Eagles are pinning their hopes on undrafted rookie Victor Salako, or Taylor Hart who was a DT last year, we could be in some real trouble. Until I see otherwise, I’ll stick to my assessment of Vaitai as a stiff and heavy-footed turnstile.
The move I’m still waiting on, is trading RB Ryan Mathews. Given the additions to the RB position that the Eagles have made, keeping Mathew’s salary on the books is just silly. Besides, with the injury to the Baltimore Ravens starting RB, now would be great time to deal them Mathews.
Initially the idea would be to try and get a CB out of them, but the Ravens wouldn’t be willing to part with anyone we’d want. We might however, be able to get an OT out of the deal. OT De’Ondre Wesley wouldn’t be a bad swap at all. At best, he sits behind Jason Petersand Lane Johnson for a year or two. At worst, he’s a camp body who adds competition to what we already have. In any case we’d get to dump Ryan Mathews salary.
GETTING it right. That’s always the most important part. I could have put out a Draft Report on Sunday, but I wanted to make sure I got it right. So I took my time, and I went over every pick again. Repeatedly.
Often times, people base Draft grades on whether or not an NFL team got good college players, instead of if those players stand a chance of helping the team that drafted them. After all, addressing weakness really is the point, right?
Weaknesses. We headed into the Draft needing a starting Cornerback to help our pass rush, or a bell-cow Running Back to loosen things up for QB Carson Wentz. We could have also used an Outside Linebacker who isn’t a liability in coverage, even against Running Backs. Yet we got none of those things.
So what DID we get?
1st round/ DE – Derek Barnett.
Barnett sets the edge and generally doesn’t end up on the ground vs the run. That’s basically what you want from a DE, but he wasn’t brought here to just play DE, he’s here to be a dominant pass rusher. However, when I look at this game vs Alabama, I don’t see a quick get-off. I don’t see great change of direction. I don’t see him using an array of moves to win early against offensive linemen. Name one great pass rusher in the NFL who lacks all of those tools. You can’t, because there aren’t any.
I’ve read that his hands keep him from being blocked long, but I couldn’t find any game tape (games, not highlight reels) that show him doing it consistently. So far I see a guy who will have an NFL career, but I don’t see 10-12 sacks per year from him at this level. If he proves me wrong, AT THIS LEVEL, great. But until then… Grade: C
2nd round/ CB – Sidney Jones.
We needed a CB immediately. Taking one this high was the right move to make. Totally made sense. What would have made more sense, would have been selecting a player who isn’t already sidelined for 2017. Word around the Training Room is that next year, after he rehabs his torn ACL (CORRECTION: An alert reader (thank you Bobby) pointed out that it’s Jone’s Achilles, not ACL that tore. My apologies for the error), Jones will be as good as he ever was. Might even be a steal. That’s the talk.
On tape here, you see a CB who even from a cushion will begin to concede a lot of real estate before the snap. College will allow DB’s that flaw, but in the NFL it’ll quickly earn you a target on your back. Also his man-press doesn’t seem to lead to significant redirection of his assignment. Luckily, these are things which can be corrected with coaching. Provided (as hoped) that he didn’t leave any of his athleticism in the operating room. Grade: C
3rd round/ CB – Rasul Douglas.
Douglas has good size at 6’2, but his near 4.6 speed causes me to question if he can play on the outside at this level. Also on tape you see he can be beaten badly on quick routes inside. That’s alarming because for a 209 pound CB, his press at the line is lacking. (There were two videos I could have chosen to show, but the other one was played in snow. That’s not a fair condition to assess players.)
The plan may be to move him to Free Safety as an insurance policy behind Rod McLeod. However, right now it seems like the Eagles spent an early pick on a guy without a true role. Grade: C
4th round/ WR – Mack Hollins.
I flat out hate this pick. The Eagles went out and drafted a Special Teams coverage player, in the fourth round. Drafted him! Smart teams wait until after the Draft to get those guys. On top of that, as a WR he shuffles his feet at the snap and doesn’t attack his blocking assignments. Grade: F
4th round/ RB – Donnel Pumphrey.
We supposedly got him to replace Darren Sproles at some point. Then again we were sold the same bill of goods last year, regarding Byron Marshall, remember? To his credit, Pumphrey catches the ball pretty well, and is very nimble. If he can get the ball in open space, he can be an asset. Then again that statement likely would be true for most RB’s. Grade: C
5th round/ WR – Shelton Gibson.
I like this WR far more than the first one we selected. Although Gibson is also a drafted Special Teamer coverage guy, aspects of his game that say he may actually be able to contribute as a WR. He doesn’t hesitate at the snap and he aggressively gets into his blocks. (Which could help Pumphrey.) I think you add ST coverage guys after a Draft, but if Gibson can contribute as a WR and help return kicks, then this was a really nice place to take him. Grade: B
5th round/ SS – Nathan Gerry.
This is another horrible pick. Too often he slows down to a jog before the play is even dead. He misses tackles. (Did you see that last part where the QB ran him over?) He can be seen being “extra” after plays, instead of being adequate during them. Grade: F
6th round/ DT – Elijah Qualls.
No penetration. No ability to win one-on-one. Ends up on the ground in a number of ways. Maybe if we tape a cheeseburger to the QB or cover him in BBQ sauce, Qualls might not end up being redirected so easily. I have no idea how this guy got drafted by anyone. I doubt he even makes the practice squad. Grade: F
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Last year we finished in the middle of the league with 34 sacks, which was 14 sacks behind the leader who had 48. DE Brandon Grahamled the NFL with 40 hurries, more of which could have been sacks if we had CB’s who could cover last year. The problem wasn’t our Defensive Line’s ability to get to the QB, it was that they weren’t given the time to do so. So of course we went out and got a starting CB, right? Wrong. We got a DE.
Our CB play was so bad last year, that we got rid of both Starters. While Sidney Jones may or may not become a perennial All-Pro after 2018, that still leaves us with questions about CB in 2017.
We needed to upgrade at WR, so we added two Free Agents, after Howie Roseman said no more “band-aids”. Then we waited until the 4th and 5th rounds to draft Special Teamers.
We needed a bell-cow RB and instead we drafted a player to someday replace a situational player.
Considering that we ended 2016 with a few needs (OLB, OT, RB) that we didn’t address during Free Agency, it’s hard to call this a good Draft, when we continued to ignore those needs.
The question isn’t about whether or not we drafted guys who can play. That really isn’t the question. It really isn’t the issue. The real issue is whether or not we fixed the holes that teams exploited against us in 9 losses out of 16 games last year. The answer is that we didn’t fix those holes. We didn’t utilize this Draft properly. So the truth is, while this was an amazing Draft for Philadelphia, it was a wasted Draft for the Eagles. The Front Office didn’t get it right.
OUR first pick in the 2017 Draft was DE Derek Barnett, and it was a stupid pick to make. I’m not saying that the young man won’t get sacks. He will get sacks. Even DE Marcus Smithhas gotten us sacks. I’m not saying Barnett won’t be a decent pro. I’m saying that given our needs at other positions, and how financially leveraged we are along the Defensive Line, it made no sense to pile more money in an area that will only prevent us from spending on other positions where we badly need the help.
I won’t even harp on the whole thing were we passed on talent at other positions. That’s a real issue, but I’ll let that walk until at least after round three. (The Eagles may surprise us. Again.) When I say it was a bad pick, I mean it from a purely mathematical standpoint.
Let’s look at some numbers!
1) Over the next two years we’re still on the hook to DE Vinny Curry for 20M out of a guaranteed 23M (7M base and 2M bonus in 2017 / 9M base and 2M bonus in 2018). After that, we’re free to release him and eat 6M in dead money for two years due to an amortization of his 10M signing bonus.
2) Over the next three years DT Fletcher Cox is guaranteed 49.3M of 63.3M (3M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2017 / 11.5M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2018 / 15.6M base, 5.2M bonus, 1.2M option in 2019). After that we’re free to release him and eat 6.4M in dead money.
I know those numbers turn into a blur when you read them quick like that, but the point is that for these two players, out of about 167M in cap space, we already were on the hook for 18M in 2017, and 28.9M in 2018. Now to that same D-Line we just added a first round contract, which will fall somewhere in the area of 4years, 18M (DE DeForest Buckner #7 in 2016) and 4years, 10M (DE Shaq Lawson #19 in 2016).
We are loading money into one area, and it will keep us from being able to spread it around into other positions like OT, CB, and WR; none of which are ever cheap when you try to sign or re-sign quality players. This doesn’t even mention positions like LB, and RB which we badly need help at.
In the meantime, some fans are cheering this pick like it means the end of Curry. What those fans fail to understand is that Curry will impact this roster for at least the next two years. At least. That’s regardless of how things play out. Whether he starts the next 32 games, or is cut the moment you read these words, Curry will seriously impact the Eagles until at least 2019. The real question is would you like to try and recoup some value over these next two years, or would you rather see him cut (after never starting a single game) and just swallow it?
On the other hand, people talking like Barnett will be the next Reggie Whitebecause he broke White’s college sack record, crack me up. If they’re looking for Barnett to get us 13, 18, 21 and 18 sacks in his first four years, despite not being quick twitch, possessing an explosive step, or not being great at changing direction, boy are they gonna be disappointed. How many great NFL pass rushers are playing in the NFL today without at least one of those tools? How many? Oh yeah, that’s right. Not one.
This isn’t the case of a talent (Barnett) that was too good to pass up. There will be no takers in a trade for a guy (Curry) making 9M per year who has never started a game. This is an unforced error that will limit our options at other spots on the roster. We didn’t administer forethought to this pick. As a result, we’ve painted ourselves into a corner. (Ironically by not selecting one.)
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