prediction

All posts tagged prediction

EAGLES FAN WEIGHS IN

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/09/25
Posted in: Coaching, Conspiracy Corner, Fans, NFL. Tagged: , , , . 14 Comments

the big bird

 

EAGLES TO FINISH 7-9???

 

MONEY in my pocket, my team is 3-0, free time and I’m out of the house. Sound good right?

After running some errands today I decided to show my face at the bar and have a screwdriver. Of course Rhodie was there holding court over why they will never get around to doing the part of the Broad Street Line that’s supposed to go from Broad and Erie, up the Boulevard and out to Grant. (Really. That’s actually a thing.)

Upon seeing me, discussions about city planning were shelved, and people started acting like I was Paul Domowich or somebody. Except I still had to pay for my booze.

People almost never get to stick it to Rhodie, because he’s usually right about sports, but I had to rib him on that whole “7-9 if we’re lucky” prediction. I started right in with “We’re 3-0, you flea covered coot!” Out of respect I didn’t take out my tape recorder because sticking it to him is one thing, but recording it would be too much like trying to embarrass him. Then he says: “Get your recorder out.”

I don’t even get a question in and he starts. “So you think 3-0 seals the deal? We’re 3-0 so everything is perfect? I seen what you wrote on your site about us playin’ shit teams, and the problems we got. I saw what you wrote about the practices and how the players feel like they’re being worked too damned hard. What do you think happens when they get a decent team, and they fall back by 20 early?”

He had me there. I’m glad for the 3-0 record, but I’m under no illusions about it and how we came by it. But 7-9? C’mon man. I offered him the chance to adjust his prediction.

“Adjust my prediction? What, are you doing me a favor? 7-9 like I said. I rooted for this team even before the coach was born, before the Linc, before the Vet, before any of the candy asses who read newspapers on a computer. I know a train wreck coming when I see one. Chip Kelly didn’t re-invent football, it just that fewer and fewer people know anything about it.”

I happen to TOTALLY agree with that by the way. Leave it to Rhodie to say in a sentence what most of us writers can’t say in a page. But a train wreck? I asked him about that.

“The players feel overworked. As long as they’re winning, everyone’s gonna talk about how good Kelly practice style is. Other teams are gonna try to duplicate it…You see where it goes? The players have to make Kelly see what he’s doing don’t work.”

He was suggesting that players would throw games to force Kelly to change. I told him he was nuts to think that.

“It don’t all have to be quit. That’s the thing. If he’s running them down, it’ll show up anyway, both in guys who bought in and guys who didn’t. Throw in just a few downs where some of ‘em give less than 100%, and people over his head are gonna ask him some tough questions, and tell him to make some changes. Something you left out in your other article there. These guys are multimillion dollar investments. Those bodies are investments. This ain’t college.”

I’d like to dismiss it, but I remember Rich Kotite’s last year here, when the team quit on him to finish (ironically) 7-9, primarily because they didn’t like how he was running things. Sometimes perspective is a gift. Other times it’s a curse. Especially when others lack it. Once again Rhodie had schooled the ‘young buck’. And this time he used my own words and convictions to do it.

I’ll be watching for signs of quit now. Funny, just a day ago it wasn’t even on my mind.

WEEK 3: REDSKINS

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/09/19
Posted in: Defense, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview. Tagged: , , , , , , . 2 Comments

9.21.14-Wk3

Sunday 1:00 EST Lincoln Financial Field  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

 

THE PIVOT

RIGHT off the bat, I’m going to say I think we beat the Redskins. However because no win is guaranteed in the NFL, I’m going to bring up something that I hope the EAGLES players have given some thought to.

If we win, we’re 3-0, and the Foreskins 1-2. The Cowpies will likely see 2-1 with a win over the hapless Rams, and no one gives a shit what the Vagiants do this week. Point is, with a “W’ we own the NFC East for at least two more weeks. (If Dallas goes 3-1 and we drop to 3-1 in week 4, our in-division win gives us priority.)

If we lose however, the division loss puts us behind the ‘skins, and also Dallas if they win ( since they’d have no division loss). There’s no need to even mention the

That makes this game pivotal. Even though it’s early in the year, and there are 5 more division games after this, you don’t want your rival playing with the confidence of having beaten you. We have to play them again this year and our young players don’t need that doubt in the back of their minds when we do.

Oh yeah! Then there’s the DeSean Jackson factor. If we don’t win and he not only manages to play (which I’m starting to doubt), but factors heavily in a ‘skins win, the local media will make life Hell next week for Chip Kelly; amid questions of having given away the division in the offseason.

Make no mistake, a lot is riding on this game.

 

EAGLES

We’re 2-0. You can be optimistic about the wins because they were comebacks, or you can be pessimistic that they had to be. Realistically, it’s a fool’s paradise to think in this league that you can spot teams a 2 touchdown lead at the half, then routinely end up celebrating at the end of the game.

We have to get it together.

 

Defensively:

We had our hands full against a scrappy one dimensional Colts team; and an offense populated by second tier players in the Jags. Washington features real firepower on the offensive side of the ball, and we’re going to be heading into this one without ILB Mychal Kendricks, which is a major crotch-shot to this unit. (No pun intended.)

We have all of 3 sacks, all of which were collected in Week 1. None by a Defensive Lineman.  Be great to see an improvement in this department.

 

Offensively:

Offense  = RB Darren Sproles and some guys. That’s really how it’s been looking out there.

TE Zach Ertz has looked good when called upon, but if he’s really the main ingredient in replacing DeSean Jackson’s 2013 production, there has to be more of him. He currently is averaging a quiet 23.3 yards per snag, with 163 yards on 7 total grabs in 2 games; but considering the problems QB Nick Foles is having getting rid of the ball quickly, maybe a few of his routes need to make him available sooner.

The Offensive Line is beat up, so you can’t really harp on them too much. Besides, last week vs Indy, we didn’t allow a single sack. Under the circumstances, that HAS to count for something.

Foles has had an awful time so far of hooking up with his WR’s. Doesn’t matter if it’s his fault or theirs, it needs to get fixed yesterday.

 

THE OPPONENT

This is a team owned by an idiot, and run by a substitute teacher; which is appropriate given the talented roster features a number of unfocused juveniles similar to a kindergarten classroom.

Last week’s win over the Jaguars broke a 9 game losing streak that dated back to last year. During the game you saw a level of exuberance from this team that is uncharacteristic for them. That’s because they’re used to losing. The fight goes out of this bunch pretty quick, and it stays that way so long as you don’t let up.

 

Defensively:

Last week against the Jags the ‘skins racked up 10 sacks. The week before they didn’t record one. Considering that we got 3 off the Jags and none in our other game as well, I’m going to say that perhaps those 10 sacks had more to do with how awful The Jags line is than how great the ‘skins pass rush is.

Despite such a “fierce” pass rush up front, their secondary allowed QB Chad Henne to complete 50% of his passes with only 1 interception. Ryan Fitzpatrick was considerably better than that the week before.

They’re going to try to make a push early, but if we punch them in the nose early, that doggy will sit and stay.

 

Offensively:
People want to make a big deal of how QB Kirk Cousins is a much better fit for HC Jay Gruden’ssystem than Bobby Griffin was- I mean is!  Washington isn’t going to just bail on RGnumber just like that. Right? Right??….

Regardless of who gets to play the part of human bull’s-eye, the ‘skins O-line is an atrocious pass blocking unit. Every time I look at RGknee, I find myself saying “Dude. How are you even alive?”

What they lack in pass pro (and it’s a lot) they make up for in opening holes for RB Alfred Morris. Morris is a between the Tackles thumper. He’s not flashy but he runs through contact, keeps his legs churning, and finds a way to fall forward at the end of most carries. The best way to beat the ‘skins is to make them limit his carries.

In the event that the O-line can keep the QB upright long enough to throw the ball, they have a host of dangerous weapons in WR’s Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, and Andre Roberts, as well as TE’s Niles Paul, and (for the 6 or 7 downs he’s available per year ) Jordan Reed.

To beat the ‘skins you have to control their line. The rest is cake.

 

BOTTOM LINE:

One of the straws that stirs our drink on Defense will be out. Advantage: REDSKINS

10 sacks vs the Jags, 0 vs the Texans. Pass rush my ass. Advantage: EAGLES

Despite their “win for the ages” over the Jaguars, the Redskins are an awfully shitty team. If we can punch them in the nose early, the route will be on. Then we can run up the score and get some garbage time in for our back-ups. If we let them hang around this could be a close one.

Until I see different however, I have to believe that the EAGLES will let yet another team toss points on the board early, and this opponent has more firepower than either of the last two.

PREDICTION: EAGLES 35-27

“WE’LL BE LUCKY FOR 7-9”

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/07/15
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Fans. Tagged: , , , . 11 Comments

meh

THAT is the prediction of a true die-hard Eagles fan who was alive the last time they were NFL Champions in 1960.

On the 10th of  July, I was down at the bar celebrating that bastard’s 58th birthday, because he’s also been a friend of mine since 2009. His name is P.W. Rhodes, but everyone calls him Rhodie. Some of you know who I’m talking about, so you know you’ll get a kick out of this one.

When he said we’d be lucky to win 7, I asked him if he thought we’d be hit hard by injuries or something. He gave me his ‘You’re kidding, right?’ look, wiped his tongue on his napkin and raised his glass to Heaven. “From my lips to your ears!”

By this point I’d gotten out my tape recorder, because that ritual of his always means he’s breaking out the soap box, and that the bar was again, in danger of learning something. You know up til now, I’ve written over 100 articles on this site, and never before have I written a single, solitary word about a man I love like an uncle. So this article is as much about my friend Rhodie, as it is about the Eagles.

He finished his glass of Wild Turkey and off he went:

“Here’s the thing. You can’t win a football division without defense. You can win in baseball with just offense. You can be competitive in basketball with just a good offense. But if you don’t play good defense in football you’re dead in the water. Hockey too.”

“After we won in ’60, none of our teams could stop anybody. We used to chant “We’ll settle for slowin’ ‘em down! We’ll settle for slowin’ ‘em down!” Didn’t matter who bought the team or who they fired, the turd never lost it’s stink. We burned in hell for 16 years and then Vermeil gets here− Wait. Let me say this. At least under Kuharich we could score points. And that’s my point.” (Orders another drink) “The guy we got now has an offense but the defense has no tough guys on it. You can’t win like that. You need tough guys, and not just one either. This guy Kelly is like Kuharick.”

“Here’s the thing. We got fed dirt on defense last year and what did we do to change the feel of the defense? What did we do? Huh? Nothin’! We did nothin’! Those kids think what they did last year is fine because they all come back and will all start!”

At that point he said something that I have to admit kicked my enthusiasm for 2014 square in the balls.

“People expect them to be better because they played the same system last year. Here’s the thing, the Redskins kept the same system for the last few years. Did they improve? Did Pittsburgh? Did the Jaguars? All failing last year and getting to start this year teaches you is that you got away with failing. That’s the opposite of how you build a winner. Trust me. The only time I spent away from the Eagles was Vietnam, so I seen all their ups and downs.”

He and I fundamentally disagree about the Defense, since I think a year should help and I wrote as much. It wasn’t a year sucking in system they already knew. It was a year sucking in something they were learning on the fly.

But he does bring up a hell of a point. Shouldn’t there have been at least a minor tremor? We were out-toughed in a nationally televised playoff game, and so far it’s all copacetic.

The Defensive Line that was man-handled will all return as starters. Our un-clutch Kicker isn’t even being seriously challenged by management to improve; and no move has been made at bringing in an obvious upgrade. then there’s the over-matched O-line that had trouble getting the kind of clear rushing holes for our RB, that New Orleans seemed to find all night long for theirs. Aside from a possible suspension for PED’s none of that has even the potential for changing this year.

“Unlike last year the NFC East ain’t just gonna lay down roll over and play dead for us again and we don’t have the talent to dominate on defense. It’s gonna be the 1960’s out there all over again. You watch.”

I don’t agree with Rhodie’s assessment, but arguing with someone who’s been there and done that, only makes you look like a complete dope if you bust your nose because you ignored their warning. Normally I do a prediction article every year after the pre-season, but this year I may just hold off on that.