THIRD down is the biggest dividing line between a terrible offense and high powered one. However, before all the yardage, and the score rankings, an offense needs to be able to consistently sustain drives. This is why many will say that 3rd down is the most important down.
That’s wrong. The most important down is 2nd down. For instance, I’m sure we can all agree that 3rd and 10 is a far different situation than 3rd and 1. If the offense can’t convert on 3rd down, the distance to go, will play a huge role in whether the offense “goes for it”on 4th down.
On 3rd and 10 the defense generally knows that a pass is coming, and they plan accordingly. On 3rd and 1? Well on 3rd and 1 it could be anything. The play-book is wide open, and the offense is less predictable. That steals confidence from the defense.
This is why 2nd down is the most important. It’s true, 3rd down is generally the ‘make or break’ down. However, converting before a 3rd down, or setting up shorter 3rd downs, drives up an offense’s confidence, while breaking a defense’s.
The point of 1st down is for running to set up the pass, or taking a gamble on a big play. When that dust settles, however it settles, the 2nd down which follows needs to be a down where our Eagles are thinking “Convert NOW!”
Sound silly? Hey, have you ever seen the Eagles face a 3rd and 8, only to have a receiver “take what the defense gives”, run a 7 yard route, make the catch, and be immediately tackled? Oh you have? How did you react? Oh yeah? Well me too. But if that same thing happens on 2nd and 8, we’re clapping.
What we don’t get on 1st, we need to chase aggressively on 2nd, with the idea of not seeing a 3rd. This way when we do see a 3rd down, most of them should be easily converted, or helpful in setting up a 4th down conversion.
EAGLES QB Carson Wentz was traded to the Indianapolis Colts on February 18th, 2021. At that point, all talk of the drama could cease. The was nothing left to do for the Eagles organization and fans, but look towards the future.
With that in mind, I stepped back and observed. I watched. I listened. I waited to see what the new coach envisioned for the team. I waited to see what the fans would chatter excitedly over.
Two excruciating weeks have dripped by, and there’s been practically nothing about the team. Most peculiarly, from the organization itself. It’s 3:04a.m., March 4th as I write this, and these are stories on the Eagles website:
Now don’t get me wrong. I understand not tipping your hand, but to say nothing? Are they telling us that no one, has an encouraging word for presumed starting QB Jalen Hurts? Are they telling us that “Where Are They Now?” articles are more important than “This Year’s Break-out Player Will Be” articles?
Aside from my THE 12 series, there doesn’t seem to be much passion for football in this city, anymore. Sad. Maybe we traded it away on February 18th.
CUTTING WR DeSean Jackson was a foregone conclusion. While it remains true that he’s still faster than gossip, he can’t string together 6 consecutive downs in a game, without having to be shut down. Usually for weeks. This leaves the Eagles once again without a deep threat.
After last year’s draft, rookies WR John Hightower and WR Quez Watkinshad us Eagles fans excited. We had a couple of speedy, young pups to bring along behind Jackson, and free agent addition WR Marquis Goodwin. With Goodwin also being a speedster, we looked to be deep with deep speed.
Funny thing about Goodwin though, he also has tendency to get nicked up and miss weeks with injuries. So naturally, Covid-19 saw Goodwin opt out for the year, and fans worrying that he might miss a few games, suddenly were even less happy. And Jackson? He was of course, hurt just minutes into the 2020 season.
He spent most of 2020 hurt, but Jackson’s last Eagles touchdown… Classic DJax.
This left us leaning on Hightower by the end of Week 1. His speed was undeniable, but his inability to track balls, led to his 34.5% catch rate on the year. For those of you who don’t follow stats, that catch rate isn’t just bad, it’s horrendous. Watkins saw a little playing time later in the season, but he wasn’t exactly killing it out there.
In 2021, we have Hightower, Watkins, and Goodwin returning. At this point, I think these three may scare Eagles fans more than they scare opponents. Still, we need to turn one of those guys into a weapon that can stretch the field, and create room for the other receivers to work underneath.
Ward and Fulgham.
WR Greg Ward is a Slot/possession receiver. WR Jalen Reagor looks like a Slot guy right now, but he keeps being sold to us as being able to play outside. WR Travis Fulgham looked like a solid second option for a few weeks. Then opponents realized that we didn’t have a first option, and took Fulgham away. WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside is still on the roster, and was supposed to give us a physical, 50/50 ball winner.
FUN FACT! No Eagles WR has reached 600 yards since 2018.
Without a deep threat, our other receivers are going to have a much more difficult time finding separation. This means our QB will have to hold onto the ball and well…
My hope is that Hightower spends this off-season working on his hand-eye coordination. Exercises like, catching a jelly bean with both hands (Not just one). Or tracking raw eggs over his shoulder, while inside of his home. (All kinds of incentive to focus on the “ball”.) I’m not saying these are exercises that he will do. Just naming examples of some classics.
In any case, we gotta have a LEGIT deep threat in 2021.
PLAY-ACTION makes a mobile QB more deadly. However, we have to be better at selling the run, in order to make our play-action more effective. On first and ten or in short yardage situations, we have to make opponents believe that a QB Sneak, a HB Dive, etc. is immediately on the table. All of that is far easier to sell with a QB lined up under Center, vs being in the Shotgun or the Pistol.
When a QB uses play-action from the Shotgun or Pistol, he has to thrust it forward to the RB. Generally with both hands on the ball to prevent a fumble. A defensive lineman who sees two hands on the ball, immediately knows it’ll be a fake. The fake doesn’t sell, and the QB ends up sacked. Sound like something you’ve seen?
From under C, when the QB fakes, he turns his back to the defense. This helps hide the ball momentarily. A defensive lineman has to honor the hand-off, and identify whether or not the RB truly has the ball. That right there, that second’s pause, helps slow the pass rush and gives an offensive lineman a chance to secure his block. (Which we are always thankful for!)
During a real hand-off, what happens? The QB clears out of the way, and no one really chases him because they’re chasing the ball. When it’s a fake, the QB can take his clearing momentum and turn it into a bootleg. This gets him far away from pressure, and gives him a clear view of the field. In which case he can throw it, or pick up some quick yardage with his legs.
Lining up under C makes play-action more dangerous, because it is the most legitimate alignment to run from. Again, your QB Sneak, your HB Dive, yadda and so forth. This is especially true for teams that run 12 Personnel (1RB, 2TE). With the Eagles being a team that is still rumored to favor such a package, lining up under C needs to be the rule and not the exception.
NOW that the Carson Wentzsaga has concluded, everyone is staring directly at new Head Coach, Nick Sirianni, and expecting him to have detailed answers on how we’re going to not end up 4th in the division this year. Whatever those answers are, this team is going to need spokesmen to pitch it, not just in the locker room, but outside of it.
Under Doug Pederson, the Eagles voices to the public were most often DE Brandon Graham, S Malcolm Jenkins, S/CB Jalen Mills, and C Jason Kelce. All of which were outspoken and who brought and energy of enthusiasm to interviews.You always felt that these guys were totally “bought in” to what the coaches were preaching. Pederson’s program had great salesmen.
Sirianni needs to find salesmen who bring both energy, and verbal agility to promoting the team. Jenkins left before last year, Kelce keeps hinting at retiring, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Mills will be shown the door. Graham would seem a likely candidate, but he may become a cap casualty. TE Zach Ertz would be a great pick, but he won’t be here so…
When the time comes for Sirianni to have answers, he’s going to need players to sell fans on the notion that things are going as planned. He’ll need players that fans find credible. He’ll need players who the locker room won’t tune out, or dismiss as a coach’s pet. There aren’t a lot of great options on the roster, but THE 12 is making do, with what we have.
Ideally with Sirianni being an offensive guy, you’d want an offensive player. QB Jalen Hurts would be one of the default options. Provided that he ends up being the starter. WRJalen Reagorseems ill at ease, and almost annoyed when talking with the press.
Possible candidates would be RB Miles Sanders, TE Dallas Goedert, and LB Alex Singleton. Sanders is animated and personable. Goedert gives quick answers and remembers to smile, but he doesn’t usually help steer the discussion. Singleton brings energy and enthusiasm, and unlike the other two, promotes the team beyond parroting company lines.
Getting everyone to buy into what the new coach is selling, (once he knows what it is), would help him out immensely. Besides, this new regime is going to need strong voices. Just in case the Eagles luck runs out, and we finally have to face some adversity. You know, injury bugs, locker room divides, lunatic accountants who are allowed to run a whole franchise into the ground, because he either gives spectacular blowjobs, or has video of owner Jeff Lurie hanging out with Jeffery Epstein and Jerry Sandusky.
THE 12 focuses on how to use what we already have, to win the division. Rumor has it that QB Jalen Hurtswill have competition for the starting role. That’s just plain stupid. Just make the kid the starter, and get to the business of fine tuning the rest of this banged up team. Team meaning players AND coaches.
Announce him as the starter and stick to it. (Unless we can somehow draft QB Trey Lance.)
Head Coach Nick Sirianni doesn’t come in with an established system. He’s developing it with his freshly assembled coaching staff. In the past he’s been a play designer, never a play caller. He says that he develops plays to the strengths of his players. Well right now, Hurts is the only QB on the roster. So who else could they develop the Offense to suit? Quit dicking around and build the guy a system.
Some of the players on this roster have already expressed enthusiasm about working with Hurts. He’s supposed to be spending time with some of the receivers, sometime in the near future. Use that! If players like him and trust him, make that a building block!
The Eagles have shown Hurts that they will cut a starter’s throat, and then sell him for peanuts. As an organization, that may make it hard for them to earn Hurts trust. They need to send the message that he will be supported, not thrown under a bus.
Starting Hurts will go a long way to getting the youth on this team to trust the Front Office, and the coaching staff. While the Wentz era didn’t end the way it should have, that doesn’t mean that the Hurts era should start under a cloud, or with him already bewaring the ides of March.
TRADING QB Carson Wentz officially ends the media drama that has surrounded the team since his benching in Green Bay on December 6th. As of now, all of the focus is on HC Nick Sirianni and QBJalen Hurts. How do they power the Eagles to win the NFC East and championships? Oh, and how long will we suck?
Don’t lie to yourself about “re-arming” or “re-stocking” or “re-loading”. The Eagles are re-building. The team that told us in February of 2018, that deep runs into the playoffs would be the norm, has been officially tossed onto the scrap heap. Gone is the coach who led us in ultra ballsy fashion. Gone is the upstart triggerman, and the wily gunslinger who stepped in for him.
For God’s sake, please stop talking about that Super Bowl, and the almost MVP season. All the important vestiges of that era have been striped away. 2017 is gone. It is dead. General Manager Howie Roseman clubbed that baby seal to death.
This is 2021, and this rebuild means that for Eagles fans, it may as well be 1999 all over again. In 1999 when Andy Reid first got here, he’d never been an NFL head coach, nor an offensive coordinator. During the interview, Reid blew Eagles owner Jeff Lurie away with how meticulous his plans were for rebuilding Eagles entirely. Lurie hired Reid to resuscitate a team that had just lost 13 games, and a legend was born.
Fast forward to 2021 and playing the part of Andrew Walter Reid, is one Nick Sirianni. (Gemini.) Also never been a head coach. Also never called an NFL game. Lurie however, loves that “he cares”. I’m not kidding. It’s the first thing Lurie mentioned when asked about why he hired Sirianni. So Sirianni is on the hook to be the next Andy Reid and revive this team based on uhhh, him caring? So okay, he cares. Did the other candidates not?
Having stepped barefoot into this warm pile of rebuild, the first thing that comes up, is that the Eagles are reportedly not anointing Hurts the starter. Instead, they intend to bring in competition for him. Or at least that’s the rumor that ESPN is reporting. Until there is a source next to a statement, me representing it as more than a rumor, would be irresponsible.
But trust and believe, we will discuss it in THE 12 tomorrow!
The second thing that crosses my mind is: Who are we losing? Rebuilds mean blood on the floor. Usually the blood of formerly sacred cows. I’m thinking names like C Jason Kelce, DT Fletcher Cox, DE Brandon Graham, TE Zach Ertz, G Brandon Brooks, and FS Rodney McLeod. Those six players represent a cap figure of 82.3M$. Six guys, 82 mill.
For a team that is projected to be 50M$ over the cap, 82.3M in cuts would clear out a lot of space. Quick, fast, and in a hurry! It would devastate the team, of course. Especially given the combined and individual leadership of the guys on that list. However, if it’s a rebuild, then fans already expect the team to suck. The only question is now: How long will the sucking last?
Eagles Head Coach, Nick Sirianni says that he can design an offense around either QB Carson Wentz or QB Jalen Hurts. He says that he will design the system according to the player’s strengths. Sounds like he’s got mad skills, right? Sounds like we’re on our way, right?
Excuse me.
Sirianni says that he doesn’t even know who his starting QB is yet. He said that spot will be decided by competition. I think it’s fair to assume that such a competition will begin with OTA’s, and conclude during training camp at the earliest, or following the preseason at the latest.
So Sirianni has to wait to see who wins the competition, to know who the QB is.
Until he knows who the QB is, he can’t design an offense.
So what are the QB’s running while they compete?
If the two QB’s are competing using a system that is designed for neither, how can Sirianni feel that he got the best look at either man?
What system is being taught to the rest of the players during OTA’s, Mini-camp, Training Camp, and the preseason?
Will we have to wait until 2022 to see a demonstration of Sirianni’s reputed offensive genius?
This is like when Sarah Palin was John McCain’s VP candidate. We were all so curious. Then she finally spoke, and it was like the Hindenburg from there on out.
That’s how I feel about our head coach right now. His press conference has left me with that noise in my ears. You know the one from the Emergency Broadcast System? That empty, ringing annoyance? That’s what reading about the Eagles feels like since that presser.
HEY! Did you hear what Jalen Hurts said, when asked about who the starter would be in 2021: “I’ll tell you that I’m putting the work in on my end, trying to build those relationships with my guys.”
Did he say “my guys”? Is that what they are now? His guys? Choice cut of pert, that there!
You know, one of the hallmarks of Carson Wentz’s tenure, has been the Eagles organization constant turning a blind eye to the Eagles locker room being divided over the QB. Many fans see this as a weakness on Wentz’s part, but that’s blaming the teacher for the kids lobbying for the substitute. If the school makes it clear that ‘This is Ms. Such-n-such’s class, end of story’, preference be damned, when Ms. Such-n-such comes back, you give her full effort. That’s not been the course we’ve charted though.
The Pederson staff looked the other way on those issues. Carson’s guy was TE Zach Ertz. QB Nick Foles guy was WR Alshon Jeffery. Jalen Hurts likes WR Greg Ward. Some guys just seem to play better for QB’s they like. Maybe you’ve noticed? Instead of addressing this, the coaching staff allowed it. Allowed shrines. Hemmed and hawed about who was playing. And similar type bullshit.
You’d better pay attention! They have you arguing with fellow fans, over NONSENSE that they’re orchestrating.
And here we are today, with more of the same. This is starting out as a divided locker room under Sirianni, even before anyone sets foot in the locker room. That’s what happens when a man has no idea what being a leader is all about.
Look. Listen. Leadership is about three things. 1)Setting a goal that you get others to pursue with you. 2) Getting people to agree to be responsible for reaching some part of that goal.3) Being, and holding others accountable, for how you are all handling your individual responsibilities to the group effort.
So far, Sirianni isn’t even attempting any of these. 1) We have no idea what his vision is.2)That means he can’t get anyone to contribute to the group effort. In fact, right now the spirit of competition is all about each man trying to serve his individual interest. 3) With everyone serving themselves, and no system to speak of, there is no way to measure how each man is contributing to the whole.
Then again why would we expect this from Sirianni, when he clearly isn’t the leader of the team?
This is not me dumping on competition. Back in November, it was me who said that competition was the easiest way to fix the team. So I’m on-board with competing. However, competition only works when the finish line has been established, and everyone knows what the goal is. Otherwise, it’s just chickens running in a yard.
Football is about more than X’s and O’s. It’s about more than a player’s 40 time. Every team has brilliant minds, and great athletes. What sets some teams apart, is their character. Their leadership. That thing that has allowed the Eagles to be a team that never knew what “quit” was. Until the Washington game. Back when they were Jalen’s guys.
FIRING Head Coach Doug Pederson the way that Owner Jeffery Lurie did, was definitely bad optics on the Eagles part. That said, bad optics and a bad move are not the same thing. I am not billing new Head Coach Nick Sirianni, as a savior. What I am, is low-key excited about the likely directions that the Offense and Defense are going in.
On Offense, (according to ESPN) we ran more vertical routes than any team last year, and had the 3rd slowest time ‘from snap to pass’. While I didn’t know that until I read it this week, that information doesn’t surprise me in the least. Not one iota. It also explains pretty much everything about last year. Check it out.
Long routes take longer to develop. That means the QB has to hold the ball longer. Behind last year’s shaky Offensive Line, that was a recipe to be sacked 50 times. Meanwhile QB Carson Wentz was thrown under the bus on a weekly basis, and ultimately benched, for rookie QB Jalen Hurts. Mostly for doing what the system apparently asked of him. That sort of thing will sour a QB on a coach.
That spark that Pederson said he was looking for? Completion percentage: Wentz 57.4/Hurts 52.0 – TD percentage: Wentz 3.7/Hurts 4.1 – Interception Percentage: Wentz 3.4/Hurts 2.7 – Sacks per Attempt Wentz 10.3/Hurts 8.1.
Before you get caught up saying one is better than the other, consider: ALL of these were bad numbers. Particularly when compared to most winning NFL QB’s. Arguing in favor of either is just picking gnat shit out of pepper. Those kind of numbers, with this much QB talent, will get a head coach fired. And then not offered a job anywhere. Despite his jewelry. (Sips tea.)
Sirianni has never called plays. His career has been spent designing them. Last year he designed plays for practically immobile QB Phillip Rivers. Rivers was sacked just 19 times in 2020.
Sirianni’s play designs have typically favored getting the ball to a receiver within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen worked with Sirianni in San Diego, and they are both of like mind. That means the ball will have to come out quickly and accurately. It also means more of the weight is on the WR’s to uncover quickly. So the passing game isn’t 75% on Carson anymore. So by design, there is no more Superhero Ball!
If everyone does their jobs well, it will mean fewer negative plays. That keeps third downs manageable, and helps the Eagles win the field position game, even when drives don’t result in points. That makes life easier on the Defense.
Speaking of defense! Our Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon, has his primary background with the 4 – 3 system, has developed star DB’s, and is rumored to favor a Cover Two base. If I were a woman, I’d be floating in my chair. I’ve been asking, begging, praying for this sort of coordinator, since Jim Johnson died in 2009.
Keep in mind, all of this is all just reading tea leaves, right now. That said, these are some of the biggest damned tea leaves I’ve ever seen!
Did I mention that on Offense, Sirianni is a big believer in 12 Personnel? I didn’t? Well guess what?!
We still don’t know what this means for the run game, or how this is going to change how the Defensive Line attacks. Today’s press conference should shed more light on that.
What we do know, is that many of the weaknesses that we’ve learned to live with, are getting fundamentally wiped away. They will of course give way to new weaknesses, but we’ll burn those bridges when we get to them.
HE’S a diva! He’s babied! He’s uncoachable! He hates Doug Pederson! He’s insubordinate! He wants out of Philadelphia! Why is it that everyone with something bad to say about QB Carson Wentz, isn’t man enough to own his words?
We’ve been reading rumors for over two years now, but strangely, everyone is afraid go on record. I could understand if Carson had gotten a coach fired in the past. Or if he’d gotten WR Alshon Jeffery (largely suspected of being a rumor source) booted off the team. But none of that has ever happened.
On the field, we see a guy with an injury history, playing as hard as we’ve seen ANY QB play. (And yes I’m including Jim Kelly.) We don’t see Carson arguing with teammates on the sideline. When he congratulates them, they don’t pull away from him, or give him the cold shoulder. We watched him give QB Jalen Hurts pointers, even after being benched. We watched that!
So what’s with this “other” Carson Wentz that we keep reading about, but that no one can give us proof of? I have a theory about that.
Carson Wentz is boring. Especially if you’re a sportswriter in a city known for colorful personalities. Like Andy Reid, Carson goes about his business, and then… You don’t hear from him. It’s football, family, and his Audience Of 1 food truck(s). Unless the local scribes want to write about Carson’s love for God (and they don’t), he’s of no use to them. Put bluntly, Carson doesn’t sell papers or generate clicks.
That is, until the media creates a situation where they can portray him as a bad guy. Ah-ha! Now they can challenge him, even force him, to defend his name. Except he doesn’t. He never responds to these rumors. He knows who he is, and he truly has no interest in the circus. Thus, he doesn’t participate in it. Ever. Which is only more infuriating for the media.
Remember the trade that NFL.com reporter Adam Schefter said Carson wanted? Here’s the link to refresh your memory. Remember when Schefter had to walk that shit back, because it wasn’t true? Here’s that link too. Remember when ESPN reporter Chris Mortensen said that Carson would force a trade? Here’s one more link. Since Pederson was fired, Mortensen has been eerily quiet on the subject of Carson Wentz. How ‘bout that?! Carson doesn’t respond. He just lets the truth find it’s own way to us.
Carson had nothing to say about last year’s rumors, and had even less to say about this year’s speculation. In fact, he’s been radio silent since his December 6th benching at Green Bay. He did skip his year-end exit interview with then Head Coach Doug Pederson, and the local media took off running with that.
Now don’t get me wrong, that move says a ton. But it says so much, that it’s important to clarify EXACTLY what Carson himself, meant by it. His intentions are subject to speculation by us fans. His intentions are not subject to speculation by reporters who are supposed to report facts.
Just as the media is taking liberties by speculating on his intent, I suspect that they may also be exaggerating some of his teammate’s comments. Any statement by an “anonymous source” allows the media to write whatever they like, however they like, while avoiding “lying” specifically.
Phrasing is extremely important.
Let me give you an example from NFL.com itself. This is an excerpt from yesterday’s Michael Silver article. This is his interpretation of an Aaron Rodgers quote, after losing to Tampa Bay. Keep in mind, this section was copy and pasted, with no alteration by me, save for the orange font color:
And when he spoke, I believe he delivered a message to his bosses, one I’d roughly translate thusly: Your way of doing business has to change, or maybe I should be on my way.
“[There are] a lot of guys’ futures that are uncertain,” Rodgers told reporters, “myself included. That’s what’s sad about it most … getting this far. Obviously there’s going to be an end to it at some point, whether we make it past this one or not. Just the uncertainties, (it) is tough, and the finality of it.”
In that quote, Rodgers says dick about the Packers way of doing business. Also, at no point does he suggest that he would leave. Silver entirely ignores both the text, and the subtext of Rodgers words, in order to superimpose his own. Sadly, fans will buy it because a guy at NFL.com wrote it!
There’s an awful lot of character assassination going on, based solely on rumor, from people who are supposed to be experts at verification, and factual reporting. Yet they keep coming up snake-eyes on facts. And as long as we keep letting them substitute rumor for scoop (or letting John Clark get away with reporting what he sees on ESPN) this will keep happening.
Damned shame when a fan/blogger has higher operating standards than professional journalists.
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 