I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned in Four Things: BUCCANEERSdid the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) Run to Set-up the Pass: We were late to the party on this one. We got around to it, but not until the second half. As a result, Jalen Hurts looked shaky and threw two interceptions on the night.
Head Coach Nick Sirianni, said this would be a RB by committee team, and that the Eagles would “ride the hot hand” at RB. Well hands don’t get much hotter than D’Andre Swift starting of with 4 runs for 36 yards (9.0ypc). So why the sudden shift to a less effective RB Kenneth Gainwell (14 – 43 – 3.0 – 0 – 0)? We are over-thinking this. (NOT DONE)
2) Rush Five:Nope! This game was started with us in an honest to goodness 4-3 alignment, with OLB Hasson Reddick (No stats) used as part of 4 man rushes. The result was our third straight week of just two sacks.
LB Nick Morrow and DT Jalen Carter, combine to force a fumble
This isn’t to say that we never rushed five. It was just damned infrequent, and on some of those occasions, a late blitzer was the fifth rusher. While there was plenty of pressure provided, the QB who committed the most turnovers, was ours. I’m pretty sure there’s a lesson in here somewhere… (NOT DONE)
3) More Man Coverage: NOPE! Our Secondary play is eerily reminiscent, of the Jim Schwartz era. Big cushions, resulting in quick and easy completions, and a neutered pass-rush. Regardless of our record, you cannot look at this Defense and say that it doesn’t fell like we’ve regressed. (NOT DONE)
4) Unleash the Pass: The middle of the field was open for business, with A.J. Brown making a couple of big snags of over 20, going over the middle. New Eagles WR Olamide Zaccheaus (3 – 2 – 58 – 29.0 – 1) hauled in a beautiful 34 yard TD strike from Hurts, giving the Birds a lead that they would never relinquish. (I told you that OZ would see an opportunity.) (DONE)
This week’s Four Things score is 1 of 4. That being said, the stats, the box score, none of it tells the story of of this game, quite accurately. No time to whine about it though. Because next Sunday, we get a 1:00 game against division rival, Washington.
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Game Hero: RB D’Andre Swift – His running (specifically HIS running), forced the Buccaneers to load the box, Which opened up opportunities for the receivers over the middle.
Game goat: DC Sean Desai – Still has no idea of how to use OLB Hasson Reddick properly.
On The Whole: We are 3 – 0, but are still, a work in progress. While this one wasn’t a blowout, it is the first win of the season, that’s by a double digit margin. Imagine what we may look like, once we’re firing on all cylinders.
There are a lot of hidden details in this one. For instance, Tampa Bay came into this game, having trouble running the ball. However, instead of playing down to them, the Eagles Defense put shackles on the Tampa’s run game (17 – 41 – 2.4 – 0 – 1). It forced the Bucs to be one dimensional, and allowed the Eagles to walk away 3 – 0.
FINALLY! I can’t remember when an offseason felt longer. To Hell with all the talk! We are just two days away from the wins and losses counting, and the deck looks stacked in our favor, to grab a “W” this week.
One of the best defenses from last year (the Eagles) is going against one of the worst offenses from last year. While we reloaded a defensive front that notched 70 sacks last year, the Patriots limp into the season with an offensive line that is already banged up.
Expect to see us eat in this one.
We need that “W” this week. The giants and Cowboys play each other Sunday night, so one of them (Cowboys) is likely to end up being 1-0. We can’t allow for there to be just one winning team in the division. Even for a week.
Who’s Out?
PHI:No one. But CB Josh Jobewas listed with an illness as of 9/6. He’ll likely play on Sunday.
NE: RT Riley Reiff is on non-season ending IR, with a non-specific “lower leg injury”. The Boston Herald said that WR DeVante Parker was “visibly limited on 9/6 by his knee injury. LG Cole Strange is also battling a knee injury, RG Mike Onwenu is still working back from off-season ankle surgery, and LT Trent Brown is listed with an illness. All but Reiff should play, but their o-line will be far from it’s best.
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics would give our Eagles the best chance to win this game. So here are the Four Things that we need to focus on this week versus: the Patriots.
1) Establish the run: Head Coach Nick Sirianni was a fan of heavy misdirection and zone blocking, when former Offensive Coordinator Shane Steichen was here. Whether that will still be the case under Brian Johnson, remains to be seen. According to Sirianni, we were very vanilla in the preseason. So there is currently no indication of what we should look like.
New England (like us), is essentially a 5-2 defensive front. Their Achilles heel is that there isn’t a player in their front seven under 250 pounds. It’s a big front that doesn’t play in space, or change direction very well. Misdirection will take advantage of that.
If we can rush for chunks of yardage, then they will have to load the box, which will open up the deep passing game. This was the blueprint for last season and we did pretty good with it.
2) Load the box: I just said that we should force our opponent to load the box, in order to open up our passing game. So why am I saying the we should load the box? Won’t that open up New England’s passing game?
Not really. Our CB’s are better than their WR’s; their o-line already has one leg in a bear trap; and their QB is game manager, not a miracle worker. They will need to run the ball just to keep it out of our hands, to limit our scoring opportunities.
Don’t let them run. Putting the game in their QB’s hands, immediately takes their head coach out of his comfort zone. At that point, apply pressure, get sacks, and maybe generate turnover or two.
3) Set the Dogs on Them: On third downs, use a five man rush. Go to Cover Two or a Tampa Two. Get those hands up, and challenge every ball in the air. We want to artificially speed up parts of their offense, to cause a miscue. This is the fertile ground where turnovers are grown.
4) Pull the Trigger: Once our run game takes over, the deep shots will be there for the taking. Two things New England doesn’t have in their secondary are size and speed. While I still have a soft spot for CB Jalen Mills, he can be exploited deep. When WR’s A.J. Brownor Devonta Smith are matched-up with Mills, QB Jalen Hurts needs to let loose down the field.
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If the Eagles do these Four Things, then we’ll be virtually impossible to beat. That being said…
The idea here isn’t to be big and splashy. Well coached teams have a way of coming back, against big splashy teams. What we want here, is to slowly drown the Patriots. Get a lead, then milk the time of possession. Take the occasional “BACK THE FUCK UP!!” deep shot, but mostly just run it, and bleed the clock.
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WARNING: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know FOOTBALL and that’s it. If you use Four Things as a gambling tool, then you are a fool trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how this game went.
While any idiot can say “Hey let’s sign every high-priced Free Agent on the market”. THE 12 focuses on what we can do with what we already have, to fix or improve our team.
ONE person caused us to lose the Super Bowl. It wasn’t the fumble by QB Jalen Hurts. It wasn’t RB Miles Sanders. It wasn’t even the Defense giving up 31 points. The reason we lost the Super Bowl, was Greg Delimitros, V.P. of Equipment Management.
If you recall, the field at State Farm Stadium was a soggy, slippery mess. As a result, our Defense with it’s voracious pass rush, couldn’t get any pressure on the QB. Eagles OLB Haason Reddickcouldn’t run down QB Patrick Mahomes, despite Mahomes playing with a gimpy ankle. Yet no one discusses that! People just shrugged and moved on.
Folks! A Defense that had given up just 14 points in the playoffs, and just 50 combined in it’s last four games, suddenly coughed up 31. All because we couldn’t do proper CLEAT MANAGEMENT. Half of the Eagles team didn’t get to play it’s game that day, due to a simple equipment problem. You have no idea how much this eats at me.
The announcers talked about both teams slipping early in the game. You could see both teams discussing it at points. However, it was the Chiefs who did a superior job of managing the field conditions, and it was enough to give them a 3 point victory. THREE POINTS!
They say it’s a poor workman who blames his tools. I agree with that. Understand, it’s not our cleats I’m blaming. I’m blaming Greg Delimitrios for not being able to manage the problem, and make the proper adjustment. I’m blaming the workman, not the tools.
He needs to get his shit together this year. You would have thought that rainy, sloppy Jacksonville game would have been a great lesson, well prior to the Super Bowl. However, you have to be paying attention to learn. You have to be dialed in. Seems like Greg wasn’t. Even if Greg doesn’t learn, I have. Prior to the playoffs, I WILL be on the call-in shows, putting this out there.
While any idiot can say “Hey let’s sign every high-priced Free Agent on the market”. THE 12 focuses on what we can do with what we already have, to fix or improve our team.
SOMETHING has to change, because in football, damage is cumulative. Which is why we’ve seen some players
get old all of a sudden. In two seasons as the Eagles starter, QB Jalen Hurts has played 30 games and run the ball 304 times. That’s an average of 10 times per game. Hurts is just 24. We don’t need him getting old at 26 or 27. So we have to stop running him 10 times per game.
To the Eagles credit, they’ve brought in an Offensive Co-ordinator in Brian Johnson, who is letting the world know, that Hurts will be throwing to his RB’s more. I love this. It’s best NOT to keep that new wrinkle a secret, because it tells opposing coaches, that now they can’t blitz Hurts without paying a stiff price. Fewer blitz attempts mean fewer hits on his body.
Also, when the coverage loosens underneath, it just makes Hurts scramble runs easier for him to get into, with more room to slide. Or dive head-first, as safely as football allows. The smart move would be (excluding QB Sneaks), limiting the OC to calling 3 Hurts runs per game.
Again, that’s called runs, not scrambles or Sneaks. Getting more short passes to RB’s should really cut into his scrambling. Hurts had 165 rushing attempts last year. That’s 11 carries per game. Getting that number down to 5 per game, would mean 85 for a whole season. And wouldn’t it be nice to see him play a whole season?
In prior seasons under OC Shane Steichen, pushing the ball downfield was the emphasis. So those RB Screens that RB Boston Scott was killer at, under Doug Pederson, didn’t get called. Scott saw just 6 targets last year. RB Kenneth Gainwell, who saw 50 targets as a rookie, saw just 29 last year.
While the team de-emphasizing passing to RB’s didn’t hurt our climb to the Super Bowl, overusing Hurts as the primary short yardage alternative to a hand-off, might stop us from going back any time soon.
The idea isn’t to handcuff him, like Rich Kotite wanted to do with Randall Cunningham. Nor do we want Hurts to avoid running, like Donovan McNabb(tried to do). We just need to limit how many high-speed, free shots we give defenses, on our QB. Including more checkdowns will help out with that.
So let’s keep it to 3 called runs per game. Circumstances permitting.
While any idiot can say “Hey let’s sign every high-priced Free Agent on the market”. THE 12 focuses on what we can do with what we already have, to fix or improve our team.
THERE’S an old expression in sports: “Dance with the girl who brung ya.” Well that girl, (running the ball), brought us all the way to a Super Bowl. So let’s stay right here. Dancing cheek to cheek with our run game.
Now that QB Jalen Hurts, has become more expensive, some may find it tempting to get pass happy. Others may want to run every single play through him. Well, either of those approaches would be stupid. Now that he’s more expensive, we should risk him less, not more.
Last year we averaged 31.2 rushes per game, 21.5 of which were hand-offs, with Hurts chipping in another 165 totes (in 15 games), for an average of 11.0 per game. We should scale down on the abuse he sees, and turn some of those 11, into hand-offs. Especially since it would be a waste of talent not to.
RB D’Andre Swift wearing the number “0”.
Although Kenneth Gainwell is (currently) listed atop the depth chart, let’s be serious here. Replacing RB Miles Sanders with RB D’Andre Swift, has the potential to be transformative to this Offense. While Sanders was very productive in his four years as an Eagle, Swift is a faster and more decisive runner. Which explains why even on a team with little supporting talent, he was able to be such an explosive player.
In each of his his three seasons, Swift has at least one run of 50 yards, with almost no help to draw attention from him. Here he has WR’sA.J. Brownand Devonta Smith. He has TE Dallas Goedert. He’s never had an Offensive Line like this. Oh, and his QB being a threat to run, makes every defense re-act half a step slower. This should be a career year for Swift.
The only way to screw this up, would be not feed Swift enough for him to get into a rhythm. If he sees 15 to 20 carries per game, we should be golden. That said, it’s not all about him. The RB room on this team currently includes: Swift, Gainwell, Boston Scott,Rashaad Penny, Trey Sermon, and Kennedy Brooks.
Ideally:
Swift should start, and see at least 15 carries in the game.
Gainwell could be sprinkled in for 2 carries per quarter, to give Swift some rest (and to play well enough to push him).
Penny comes in as the closer in the fourth. A big, fast, well-rested closer, capable of ripping off 60 yard runs to paydirt. Penny coming in basically ends Swift’s day, and we pack all of Penny’s carries (6 or so) into the fourth.
If the Eagles can put up 29 hand-offs per game, we should be unbeatable. In fact, last year we were 5 – 0 when hitting 29 hand-offs. In games of 17 hand-offs or fewer, we were 3 – 3 including a 17 hand-off Super Bowl. So yeah. Dance with the girl who brung us. Run the ball.
Categories include an EXCLUSIVE weekly Offensive Line Report (Rushing TD’s (6 points)+ 3rd downs converted by handoffs(1 point) + sacks allowed (-2 points)= score); as well as Drive Killer (Int – FR – 4th down Tackles – FF – TD).
New Category Ace is for Kick return TD’s, Returners run-down, kicks blocked, etc.
I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned in Four Things: Chiefs did the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) No Clean Releases:All we did, was give them clean releases into their routes across the board. They were running routes unimpeded, like they were in unopposed drills. The Chiefs QB could have thrown the ball just on timing, with his eyes closed. This was an embarrassing display of non-adjustment by the coaching staff. (NOT DONE)
2) Attack their LB’s and NCB: We lived on this in the first half. It lulled the Chiefs to sleep, opening up a nice 45 yard scoring strike to WR A.J. Brown(8 – 6 – 96 – 16.0 – 1). The second half seemed to feature more runs for our QB, which led to points, but seemed to leave most of our weapons a lot less involved. We still made use of the TE and such, but it wasn’t nearly as pronounced later.(DONE)
3) Force their QB Left: We didn’t do this. Instead he mostly went to his right repeatedly, and gutted us for 3 scores, and not one turnover. We let him do what he’s good at, and we let this game become a shootout. Which is the only kind of game they can win.
Our pass rush sacked him all of ZERO times, as we rarely sent five and allowed receivers to roam where they chose.
Some may choose to blame a shitty field surface, but the Chiefs had to play on that field too. Beating us for two touchdowns on a play, run twice, based on quick change of direction. (NOT DONE)
4) Quick Throws Off of Play-action: The Eagles handed the ball off, all of 17 times, to three RB’s. No one had more than 7 carries. The Chiefs simply didn’t buy the play-action and Hurts was the QB who spent most of the day under duress. (NOT DONE)
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So we end the season on a note of 1 out of theFour Things getting done. The score was only this close because the Chiefs defense was really, really porous.
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On The Whole:
While everyone else wants to fawn over Hurts three rushing touchdowns, I feel it necessary to bring up how his fumble was the biggest single moment, difference in the game. Those seven points off the board, would have netted him a Lombardi. Instead, there is no guarantee that he ever sees another opportunity.
Though that moment was indeed huge, it wasn’t why we lost.
Defensive coaching is why this game was lost. Or better said, a lack of defensive coaching is what lost this game. I’m on record REPEATEDLY expressing my lack of trust in Defensive CoordinatorJonathon Gannon. I was really hoping that he was going to take a head coaching job, and leave Philly. Sadly, it looks like we’ll still have him next year.
I know some will point out 70 sacks, but I’m pretty sure most DC’s could find success with this much talent. In fact, other DC’s may have found a way to keep the turnovers coming. Given that we likely won’t be able to afford as much talent next season, Gannon may have blown our shot.
WHEN the Eagles last took the field, we knocked two QB’s out of a game, and set a record for rushing touchdowns (39) in a season, breaking a 50 year old record of 36 (not 37 that’s a typo) set by Vince Lombardi’s 1962 Packers. Sorry Vince, Eagles got you again.
In two playoff games, the Eagles have allowed exactly 7 points in both. Both games were blowouts (38 – 7 , and 31 – 7 respectively). This is despite QB Jalen Hurtsstill nursing an injured shoulder, and playing far from his best. Let me type that louder for the people in the back: WE’RE DOMINATING DESPITE PLAYING FAR FROM OUR BEST BALL.
RT Lane Johnson having his way with DE Nick “Forty-Whiner” Bosa
Now as a final hurdle, we get a Chiefs QB with a bum leg, and everyone is waiting for the kid’s next miracle finish. What’s hilarious is that no one seems to understand that he’s going to spend the night running for his life, and fucking up because of it.
Seriously, he was sacked 3 times in his last game, by a Bengals team that managed 30 sacks all season long. That Bengals pass rush was the 4th worst in the NFL! And now they get to face the Eagles?! This isn’t sheep being fed to lions. This is Apollo being fed to Drago. This game may get very sad before it’s over.
Game wrecking OLB Haason Reddick racks up yet another forced fumble
A win makes us the champs. It means the mission was completed. It means a bunch of our guys will deserve to ask for a little bit more at the bargaining table. It means that us picking 10th overall in the upcoming draft, is a vulgar display of power, and fistful of dirt and salt in the wound of EVERY team that picks after us.
A loss still says we got the formula right, but couldn’t quite ring the bell. What’s FUNNY is that since this is two #1 seeds, with identical records, a loss couldn’t be classified as a “choke”. So that bullet is already dodged. Still, let’s just go win the game. GO BIRDS!
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics would give our Eagles the best chance to win this game. So here are the Four Things that we need to focus on this week, versus the: Chiefs
1) No Clean Releases: No one is saying that OLB Kyzir White and NCB Avonte Maddox have to play tight Man Coverage, but the Chiefs are accustomed to free releases into their pass routes. This leads to their passing game running like open drills. Stop that. Get hands on them for a second or two.
Let’s get their passing game to run just a couple seconds off-schedule. That’s all we need. That gives our pass rush time to get more pressure. Also if we can get their QB routinely improvising, it minimizes the detailed planning of Head Coach Andy Reid, and their likelihood for making mistakes goes waaay up. So take away those free releases. Especially for their TE.
2) Attack their LB’s and NCB: Their second level isn’t very instinctive. In an effort not to waste steps, they tend to watch a lot of football, before firing into the play. So let’s pick on that weakness. They’re already going to be struggling with our RPO game, so we won’t need to make them do anything they aren’t already doing.
TE Dallas Goedert scoring on KC in 2021
So if their second level is going to be frozen in space, TE Dallas Goedertshould romp and frolic, finding open spaces 10, 11, 12 yards down. (No need to rely on Screens and risk illegal man downfield penalties!) This will keep the pocket loose for RB Miles Sanders to run, and not tax Hurts shoulder too much.
3) Force Their QB Left: While the Chiefs QB has displayed ambidextrous ability as a passer, he’s at his best as a right-handed QB. All of his muscle memory, processes, and mechanics are for his right hand. Forcing him left, also means that he can’t step into his passes. So they won’t arrive as accurate, nor as fast, as his receivers are used to. (See how this all adds up?)
If the routes unfold slower, and he has to read more, while moving unnaturally, we’d already be keeping him from being the best version of himself. All of which is subtle. The more subtle it is, the harder it is to diagnose, so it goes on longer before it’s fixed. While they look for ways to protect his leg, let’s attack his habits instead.
4) Quick Throws Off Play-action: EAGLES FANS! Remember how when Andy was the coach here, our LB’s were employed more as clean-up guys, and almost never got to dictate the action? Well the same thing is happening to the Chiefs LB’s under Andy and DC Steve Spagnulo. That “bend but don’t break” bullshit that we all hated.
QB Jalen Hurts wins the motherfucker.
Eyes not instincts, are what their LB’s rely on, and they do so heavily. Trying not to finish behind our run game, is going to lead those guys into leaving gaping holes underneath. The only reason why they wouldn’t, is if the Chiefs are hanging back and letting us run the ball. Which would be wonderful! Hand-offs > Passes.
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If the Eagles do these Four Things, then we’ll be virtually impossible to beat. That being said…
Let me talk about our opponent first. In 17 games, they allowed 20 points 12 times. At no point did they hold a team to a single digit score. They’re a team that scores a lot, because they have to. This is despite playing in a poor division, vs anemic pass rushes. That team is nowhere near as good as it’s advertised, which is why they frequently require miraculous last minute plays, and stunning overtime wins (2).
Top to bottom the Eagles are the better team. In just 8 games did we allowed 20 points, with 4 games holding opponents to 8 points or fewer. Two of which were playoff opponents! Our division featured three playoff teams, and none of our wins were in overtime. Guess which team had more blowouts (wins by a 20 point margin). Go ahead. I’ll wait…
We don’t rely on smoke and mirrors. We’re physical. We’re methodical. We don’t generally beat ourselves. For our opponents to get a win, it requires lots of help from us…
And I don’t see the Chiefs getting much help from us on Sunday.
One more game, folks. GO BIRDS
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Prediction:EAGLES 28 – Chiefs 21
WARNING: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use Four Things as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how this game went.
Categories include an EXCLUSIVE weekly Offensive Line Report (Rushing TD’s (6 points)+ 3rd downs converted by handoffs(1 point) + sacks allowed (-2 points)= score); as well as Drive Killer (Int – FR – 4th down Tackles – FF – TD).
New Category Ace is for Kick return TD’s, Returners run-down, kicks blocked, etc.
I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned in Four Things: 49ers did the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) Set Hard Edges: Set the edges and don’t fall for the misdirection stuff they like to do. The idea was not to shutdown the run, just make it unreliable. The idea was to make them one dimensional, and force them to pass. The result was that we held them to 71 rushing yards on 24 carries (2.9ypc). So the run game was unreliable. We also made them one dimensional. Forcing them to pass…not so much. Still, this one is easy to mark as accomplished. (DONE)
After Haason chopped, it wasn’t Purdy.
2) Pick Purdy: Once we took away the run game, we were supposed to force Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy (4/4 – 100.0% – 23 – 0 – 0) to beat us. But we knocked him out of the game pretty early, with an elbow injury that rendered him basically unable to throw. Then we knocked his back-up out of the game, forcing Purdy who was unable to throw, back into the game.
DT Ndaukong Suh knocks QB Josh Johnson out of the game
With them being unable to throw at all, all Purdy could do was hand it off, into the teeth of our predatory Defense. It was like feeding sheep to lions. I almost felt bad for them. Then I remembered them dressing the Rocky statue, and Jesus said “Fuck them dudes.”(DONE)
3) Run the Ball: We didn’t shatter any yardage records but we had an effective day on the ground (42 – 150 – 3.5 – 4 – 0) Gainwell once again led the team in yardage, but once again RB Miles Sanders (11 – 42 – 3.8 – 2 – 0) was were the load was really carried. Sanders was the early hammer, with Gainwell and Boston Scott (6 – 21 – 3.5 – 1 – 0) helping to salt the game away.
RB Miles Sanders hits paydirt. (Maybe literally.)
With drives of 13, 20,16, and 9 yards, our running gave our Defense time to catch their breath. As a result they were able to attack with reckless abandon. Much of this win has to be attributed to our ability to hold the ball for 37 minutes vs the 49ers 22. (DONE)
4) Throw It Deep: There were a few attempts over 20 yards, but the only one that went for yardage (the 29 yarder to Smith) wasn’t really a catch. Otherwise, Hurts was out of sync and very off target in this one. I suspected that the coaching staff had him on a pitch count last week. This week confirmed it.
The coaching staff was trying to protect Hurts still tender throwing shoulder. We were able to get away with it this week. (NOT DONE)
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This week we did3 of the Four Things, and the resulting blowout punched our ticket to Super Bowl LVII (57 for Millennials). There we’ll meet up with Head Coach Andy Reid(after a Bye) and QB Patrick Mahomes.
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On The Whole:
All week long, people talked like this game was evenly matched. I said plainly that it wasn’t. If this game were a boxing match, they’d have thrown the towel after we bounced Mr. Irrelevant’s back-up from the game. All the talk was about how physical the game would be. How good the 49er defense was. How well that QB with respectable mobility, manages his offense.
Folks! We’d already played and won this game. Remember? Week 13, it ended 35 – 10 vs the Tennessee Titans. We played that one at home too. (And it also featured knocking a player out of the game.)
RT Lane Johnson held DE Nick Bosa to 4 tackles and nothing else.
Like the Titans, we found that the 49ers don’t take punches as well as they throw them. Once they became frustrated, they just mentally unraveled out there. They committed personal foul penalties like they were part of their game plan. As I said in Four Things, they got fat off of teams that harm themselves. We aren’t that team.
ABSOLUTE domination from start to finish last week. The national media spent last week hyping a hollow giants team, and we beat the numbers off their jerseys. This week’s opponent has grown fat off of teams that specialize in hurting themselves. This week they have the wrong opponent. In the wrong house. In front of the wrong crowd.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is going to show what it means to lead a team to victory, instead of just being along for the ride. Which is what’s happening on the 49ers sideline. I mean, could you imagine hyping a QB for playing like the best version of Daniel Jones?
The national media isn’t saying “Look at him make jaw-dropping play after play!” They’re saying “Oh look at how he doesn’t make huge mistakes!”Well, OLB Haason Reddick, DT Javon Hargrave, SS Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, CBDarius Slay, and others, are about to put that kid to the test. Context is on the way!
A win punches our ticket to Super Bowl LVII. While I cannot guarantee a win like I did last week, the odds of winning are HEAVILY in our favor. We are all but inevitable.
A loss cannot be entirely ruled out here. The chance exists that we don’t pull this one. Having acknowledged it however, the chance is pretty damned small.
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics would give our Eagles the best chance to win this game. So here are the Four Things that we need to focus on this week, versus the: 49ers
DT Fletcher Cox, is on the hunt
1) Set Hard Edges: The 9ers are a run-based offense that uses lots of misdirection to open holes. Stay disciplined, and don’t fall for the eye-candy. With the way they like to goof around in the backfield, if we don’t fall for the smoke and mirrors, their ball carrier is liable to run smack into a defender.
Have DE’s Brandon Graham and Josh Sweat establish hard boundaries on the ends of the offensive line, to either bottle runs up inside, or force them far outside where there’s no blocking. Understand, the idea isn’t to “shutdown” their run. (They’re too good for that.) The idea is to just make it unreliable, and destabilize their offense.
2) Pick Purdy:You’ve heard the expression “Pick your poison”. Here we should pick their rookie QB. Yep! Just force them to beat us with a seventh round, rookie QB, making his eighth start, on the road, in one of sport’s most hostile environments. Oh, I promised you context.
This kid’s wins? A bad Tampa Bay with no offensive line; Seattle’s 26th ranked defense; The Commanders; The Raiders 28th ranked defense; Arizona playing their 3rd string QB; Wild Card Seattle on the road; and Dallas last week. THIS is what all the hype has been about! So if I’m picking my poison, I’m picking that Purdy lil’ QB.
3) Run The Ball:Usually I mean hand-offs when I say this, but against this opponent, I mean anybody. While RB Miles Sanders should be our hammer early, RB’s Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott should each see at least 6 carries apiece, mostly in the second half.
Also, the 9ers defense is smallish upfront. The DE playing across from 365 pound LT Jordan Mailata, is only about 245. They don’t have a LB over 230. We need to physically wear them down, and then wear them out. It also bears mentioning that all four of their losses came against mobile QB’s. (Note: They didn’t face QB Kyler Murray at all this season.)
4) Throw It Deep: Do not allow their defense to dictate our attack. Two of their three CB’s are decidedly overrated. They all do a great job of taking away the quick stuff, but downfield, the Wards can be had.
They play a lot of Cover Three, but we should be able to short circuit that, with WR Quez Watkinsworking deep in the Slot. Even if they’re just dummy routes to hold the FS. With enough protection that’s a one-on-one down either sideline.
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If the Eagles do these Four Things, then we’ll be virtually impossible to beat. That being said…
There are a ton of surface indicators which make this game seem a lot more even, than it truly is. What people seem to be (deliberately) looking past, is context. As you know, I never look past context. Context is what makes facts come alive!
At times this season, when the kid has gotten into trouble, their coach has protected him by getting the ball out of his hands with either quick passes, or more running plays. If we take those away, he has to play big boy QB, which puts him right in DT Fletcher Cox’s cross-hairs.
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Prediction: EAGLES 24 –49ers 15
WARNING: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use Four Things as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how this game went.
QB Jalen Hurts can only look on as we struggle past a rough patch vs the Saints
SEASON Reviews are usually done at the end of the season. A few are also done at the halfway mark. Starting in 2017, Eaglemaniacal.com began treating the season like a game, and breaking it into four quarters.
In 2021, the NFL expanded the season to 17 games, which makes for an uneven split. So this year (at least), these Quarterly Reports will come after games 5, 9, 13, and 17. (Ugh. I hate even looking at that format.)
Since football is a hard sport, we’ll take a hard look at where our team currently stands, in relation to where it started. Then we can discuss where it needs to go next.
STATUS: 14 – 3, NFC East Winner, NFC #1 Seed
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OPPONENTS:
(W ) Chicago 3 – 14
(L ) Dallas 12 – 5 (5th seed)
(L ) New Orleans 7 – 10
(W ) New York giants 9 – 7 (6th seed)
OVERVIEW:
When do our guys ever make it easy? Our Eagles made us sweat for it. Securing the top seed came all the way down to the last game of the year, due to two losses down the stretch. This was triggered by losing a flurry of key players to injury. In any case, instead of producing excuses, the Eagles produced the wins they needed. Our team didn’t choke when crunch time came around. They instead did what winners do. They reached down, and found the will to be the last one standing. Great practice. We’ll be needing it shortly.
GRADES:
QB: C / Jalen Hurts injured his throwing shoulder vs Chicago. He finished the game, but missed the next two. When he returned in the finale, he clearly wasn’t himself yet . Over the last quarter season, he’s thrown zero touchdowns vs three interceptions. He will exit the regular season with a 14 – 1 record as a starter this season.
Gardner Minshew(42/72 – 58.3% – 629 – 3 – 3) has been unfairly lambasted these last couple of weeks. He’s credited with 3 interceptions, but it’s a very misleading stat. While one was a fatal pick six vs the Saints, the two against the Cowboys were both, literally pulled out of the same receivers hands. In neither game did the coaching staff do much to support him with the run, yet he still managed 34 points against the Cowboys.
RB Miles Sanders laments a fumble as LT Jordan Mailata comforts him.
RB: D / Miles Sanders (55 – 201 – 3.6 – 0 – 2) has been used sparingly over these last four games, not just in terms of volume, but situationally. His touches in the red zone have all but disappeared.Kenneth Gainwell (22 – 57 – 2.5 – 0 – 0) and Boston Scott (11 – 60 – 5.4 – 1 – 0) have been underwhelming, save for Scott’s (9 – 54 – 6.0 – 1 – 0) game against the giants.
In full disclosure, over these last four games this position has suffered as much from coaching as anything else. No early touches to set a tone, or tire out opponents. Running a system set up for movement and a mobile QB, through a pocket passer with no threat of stressing a defense horizontally. My hope is that these games were red herrings regarding our tendencies.
TE: F / Dallas Goedert(16 – 12 – 158 – 13.1 – 0) came back from injury and has been working his way back into his role as the catalyst. Jack Stoll and Grant Calcaterra combined for a 6 yard catch, over the last four games, on just three targets.
WR: C / Devonta Smith(41 – 29 – 421 – 14.5 – 2) on almost any other team would be the guy teams game-planned to stop; but have you met A.J. Brown(43 – 23 – 476 – 20.6 – 1)? While he’s in no media conversation as the best receiver in football, he doesn’t seem to mind it. He just plays like he is. Keep in mind, the numbers you see here, are for just the LAST FOUR GAMES.
Quez Watkins (16 – 7 – 49 – 7.0 – 0) on the other hand, may have played his way out of Philadelphia. Turnovers have been an issue for him, and this quarter saw two balls ripped from his hands for interceptions, in the same game. And it was against DALLAS! Behind Brown and Smith, he has one of the cushiest Slot gigs in the sport, and hasn’t been able to capitalize on it, despite possessing elite speed, and having two coverage draws
Zach Pascal caught a ball for six yards vs the Cowboys, but is mostly a blocker and a decoy. The A.J. and Devonta Show has kept people from noticing that the rest of the Offense is faltering. Notice, only half of this position is producing. And did you do the math? This quarter: 60 catches, but just 3 TD’s. No more smoke and mirrors. This MUST BE addressed.
OT: C / LT Jordan Mialata once again didn’t miss a single snap out of 272 in the quarter. He was flagged just once for a hold, which was declined, in the win over the giants. RT Lane Johnsonwas Lane Johnson until he suffered a groin injury (torn adductor) vs Dallas. Filling in for him has been Jack Driscoll. He’s held his own, but speed rushes suggest that he could use chipping help, if we have to rely on him long term. Truthfully he’s a much better interior battler than edge guardian.
OG: C / Landon Dickerson has been hit for three penalties for 20 yards this quarter, including a couple of crushers while trailing the Saints by 10 points. Isaac Seumalo hasn’t missed a snap this quarter. He was flagged just once, but it was during a disastrous drive while trailing the Saints by 10. Our recent interior play would be good for most teams, but for this team, it’s below what’s expected based on what’s been previously delivered.
RG Isaac Seumalo ad C Jason Kelce open a crack, just wide enough for RB Boston Scott to shimmy through.
C: B / Jason Kelcehasn’t missed a single one of the 272 snaps during this quarter. He’s had a couple of questionable snaps, but his movement skills are still top tier, and his understanding of angles is honestly second to none in the game.
DE: B / Josh Sweat(10 – 3.5 – 1 – 0) was injured early in the loss vs the Saints, and missed the season finale. Still he managed to return an interception for a touchdown, and add enough sacks to push his total to 11 on the year. Brandon Graham (7 – 2.5 – 0 – 0) also brought his total to 11, posting double digit sacks for the first time in his career. His only start of the year was the season finale, in place of Sweat.
DE Josh Sweat with the pick six.
DT: A/ Fletcher Cox (6 – 1.0 – 0 – 0) finished the season strong, reintroducing himself to opposing passers. Javon Hargrave(14 – 3.0 – 0 – 0) ran his sack total up to 11, becoming one of four Eagles to post double digit sacks in one year. No other team has ever done that. This position is the engine of the Defense.
Milton Williams(9 – 1.0 – 0 – 0) also has 3 tackles for losses over the last three weeks, and plays the edge as well as the inside. Jordan Davis (4 – 0 – 0 – 0) has played in two games this quarter where he didn’t reach 10 snaps. He hasn’t played 20 snaps in a game since Week 6. So you have to wonder what the coaching staff has in mind for the first rounder, who’s been back from his leg injury since Week 13. We’ll have to keep an eye on this.
Linval Joseph (10 – 0 – 0 – 0) is block eater who has seen his snap percentage drop over the last quarter. There may not be much to it, but keep an eye on how much Davis gets to play going forward. Ndamukong Suh (4 – 0.5 – 0 – 0) has been plugging away inside, offering more disruption than Joseph.
OLB Haason Reddick with one of his two sacks in this game.
OLB: C / Haason Reddick(14 – 6.0 – 0 – 2) and throw in 4 tackles for losses this quarter! The 16 sacks he racked up this year, is his career-high. Kyzir White (31 – 1.0 – 0 0 – 0) gets in on stops, but it would be nice if he didn’t let so much of the action be dictated to him. Too often he makes tackles and not plays.
Nakobe Dean (no stats) saw just three defensive snaps this quarter. Three. Patrick Johnson (5 – 0 – 0 – 0) plays on the line more than he stands up, but seems mostly like a place holder in either instance. Coaches may laud his understanding of his role, but those same coaches will take that role, if another player makes two plays in his stead.
MLB: B / T.J. Edwards (44 – 0 – 0 – 0) posted 159 tackles this year, shattering the Eagles all-time record of 137 set just last year, by current Bronco, Alex Singleton. Edwards role in the Defense has definitely become more passive.
S: D / Marcus Epps(24 – 0 – 0 – 0) has just two passes knocked down this quarter, and just 6 this season and no turnovers, despite playing 1,096 snaps. More is needed here. Reed Blankenship (20 – 0 – 0 – 0) started two games and missed one with an injury. K’von Wallace(11 – 0 – 0 – 0) started in the win at Chicago, and recorded 9 stops. Over the last three games he saw just 12 defensive snaps. Chauncey Gardner Johnson(7 – 0 – 0 – 0) came back from injury and started the finale.
CB: D /Darius “Did He Play?” Slay (12 – 0 – 0 – 0) hasn’t produced a big play, since his deflection in Green Bay last quarter. What’s worse, opposing teams no longer fear targeting him. He hasn’t gotten his hands on a pass since Week 6. It would help to see him assert himself soon. James Bradberry (15 – 0 – 0 – 0) is also seeing more challenges, having no picks since Week 9.
Avonte Maddox(9 – 1.0 – 0 – 2) missed the last two games with a toe injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll play or practice again this season. Josiah Scott (7 – 0 – 1 – 0) has spent this quarter being plucked, roasted and sauced as the Nickle. The job is simply too big for him.
LS: A /Rick Lovatoadded a tackle to no bad snaps.
P: C / Brett Kern (10 – 408 – 40.8 – 36.6 – 0) was brought in because Arryn Siposs was put on IR. Not a lot of distance, or hang-time, or pin-pointing with his punts; but he’s an aging, late season addition. How much could he possibly have left? Over the last 4 games there have been 5 returns for 42 yards (8.4). Fine under the circumstances, but it suggests a slight out-kicking of the coverage.
K: A / Jake Elliott (9/10 FG, 8/8 XP) has been super reliable. Even from 50+.
PR/KR: D/ Boston Scott (6 – 161 – 26.8 – 0) on Kick-off duty and WR Britain Covey (4 – 44 – 11.0 – 0)
SINCE LAST QUARTER:
After Chicago, the Eagles hit some major injury snags. As a result, we had some trouble securing the win needed to salt away the division and the NFC’s #1 seed. It took until the last game of the season, but it DID get done. While many have questioned the play they see on the field, I’ve had more questions about some of the coaching decisions.
I question the lack of commitment to the run game, during a stretch where the back-up QB had to start. I question a steady diet of off-coverage. I question the sparse use of Miles Sanders, while not elevating RB Trey Sermon from the practice. I question fans who swallow non-answers about these questions.
MISSION FOR THIS QUARTER:
We posted a conference (and league), best record of 14 – 3, which earned us a first round bye in these 2022 – 2023 playoffs. We get to flash our VIP pass, and cruise right past the (peasants) Wild Card round, and hop in at the Divisional level. That puts us one win away from the National Conference Championship, and two wins away from the Super Bowl itself. Once there, everything is on the table. So the mission is simple: WIN. WIN. And then WIN.
