JUST a few weeks ago, I predicted that the Saints head coach, would out-coach Eagles Head Coach Nick Sirianni, and win this game. Today, I don’t feel like the Saints have a legitimate shot at winning this game. I could be wrong, but you and I know that I’m not.
The Eagles have found an internal source of power to tap into. Meanwhile, the Saints are starting to fall apart due to the aforementioned injuries, and a lack of offensive leadership. For the Saints, this is a bad time to have this fight.
A win would move us to 5 – 6, and one game away from being .500. This team hasn’t seen .500 or above since the end of the 2019 season. There’s possible playoff implications to be discussed, but let’s get to .500, before we start talking too much about playoffs.
A loss would drop us to 4 – 7 and shine more light on the three first round picks we have in the 2022 NFL Draft. As long as there’s a mathematical chance for us to make the playoffs, we should try everything to do so. That said, the second we’re out of possible consideration, we should tank, because it improves our draft position in EVERY round, not just the first.
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on, this week versus the Saints:
1) Play Man Press:First and most importantly, we’re 4 – 0 when we do. Secondly, The Saints are starting back-up QB Trevor Siemian, and he likes to share the football with his opponents. So we should be there for him. In fairness, he hasn’t thrown a single pick this season. WHICH MEANS HE’S DUE!
Take away the quick and easy stuff. If the “back-up’s body forced to be a starter” Steve Trevor
can beat us with deep passing, then we deserve to lose. Man Press will take away the quick stuff, help our pass rush, and help to keep the run contained.
2) Force Malcolm Out Of the Middle:One of the reasons that the Saints rank so high in run defense is former Eagles SS Malcolm Jenkins. He plays in the box like an extra LB. So we need to get him out of the box. The primary reason we moved on from Malcolm, was his apparent trouble with deep speed. Even when lined up deep, Malcolm has trouble versus true speed. So that’s the bone we should hack at.
The fact that he likes to walk into the box, makes that weakness all the more glaring. We should start in 11 Personnel (1RB, 1 TE). The TE doesn’t always have to be an actual TE. Using RB Miles Sanders, or RB Kenny Gainwell would do just fine on some downs. Split the TE wide, to pull Malcolm laterally out of the box. After a couple of deep routes, he’ll also start lining up deeper.
That’s when you pound the rock with RB Jordan Howard, vs a vacated middle.
3) Just Make the Tackle: Saints RB Mark Ingram is a leg churner and tackle breaker. He’s not a hard RB to box-in or catch, but teams clawing at the ball instead of getting him on the ground, literally give him extra yardage.
Once we get to him, drop him. Plain and simple. Clawing for the ball may help us if we’re down two scores in the 4th quarter, but doing it in the 1st quarter is a great way to end up down two scores. Just get these guys on the ground.
4) Use Play-Action:With the way the Eagles have run these last few weeks, selling a fake hand-off will be as easy as selling toilet paper.
QB Jalen Hurts would have clean pocket after clean pocket, as long as he doesn’t hold the ball too long.
Not only that, but if play-action is used well enough, both real and fake hand-offs will freeze their defense, as they take a beat to make sure of their read, instead of just reacting.
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If we do these Four Things,
If we hit all four of these, this game would break wide open, and put the NFL on notice. Sirianni would go from “the guy the media mocked over flowers” to “rookie head coach has turned his team around”.
While I would LOVE all four, I expect that #1 and #3 are the ones that will likely get done. If so that should be enough for a 28 – 17 win.
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PREDICTION: EAGLES 28 – Saints 17
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.
New categories include an EXCLUSIVE weekly Offensive Line Report (Rushing TD’s + 3rd and 4th downs converted:missed of 2 yards or less – sacks allowed); as well as Drive Killer (Int – FR – 4th down Tackles – FF – TD).
Receiving: (S) WR Devonta Smith (6 – 4 – 66 – 16.5 – 2)
Offensive Line Report: (0 + 3:0 – 1)
Drive Killer: (S) OLB Davion Taylor (0 – 0 – 0 – 2 – 0)
Sack Leader: (S) DE Derek Barnett(1 – 1.0 – 0 – 0)
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I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned inFour Things: Broncosdid the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) Press Coverage: I won’t keep you in suspense. Out of all Four Things, this is the only one we did. And as always, it resulted in a “W”. Atlanta, Carolina, Detroit and now Denver. When we play Man Press, we control the game. And why shouldn’t we?! We have two of the NFL better man coverage CB’s.
(FYI: The 4th quarter pass interference call on CBSteve Nelson (1 – 0 – 0 – 0), started with him giving a large cushion. IJS)(DONE)
2)Play-action Inside: We used play-action today, but Hurts absolutely refuses to throw passes in the middle of the field. Nearly everything with him has to be from the numbers and out. (And YES, I’m aware that the second touchdown to Smith was over the middle.) (NOT DONE)
3)Taylor-made Headache: We didn’t send Davion Taylor on any blitzes that I noticed. Yet he still managed to be a headache. That however, isn’t something I can count towards what was written. (NOT DONE)
4)Get Howard In Space: Didn’t even try. The one time it seemed like Howard got loose on a route, Hurts took off running behind him. I have no idea why the coaching staff seems hellbent to under-utilize Howard. (NOT DONE)
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This week we only pulled off 1 of the Four Things, but man how ONE it was! Next week we host the New Orleans Saints, in an attempt to get our first home win of the season.
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On The Whole:
We kept the Broncos from sweeping our division, with this win. It also kept us from being swept by the AFC West. This was a game where Offense, Defense and Special Teams contributed. (That blocked field goal by S K’Von Wallacewas awesome!) It was our best win of the year so far.
Brace yourselves! We almost Surtainly have a star in Devonta Smith.
We got one sack today, but all day long we put QB Teddy Bridgewater (22/36 – 61.1% – 226 – 0 – 0) under pressure, and didn’t let him get comfortable, or use his big outside weapons much. Excellent work indeed, but there were a couple of issues in this one.
Issue One, was with defending the run. We gave up 96 yards on 18 carries, for 5.3 per tote and a score. DE Josh Sweat (1 – 0 – 0 – 0) does not set the edge vs the run. That’s probably because the strong-side, is too strong for him. He’s much better suited to being a speed rushing RDE, than an anchoring LDE.
Issue Two, was with us being in the Shotgun. It already doesn’t help sell play-action, but when we’re in the ‘gun, Hurts play-action mechanics absolutely fall apart. His half-hearted jabs of the football, does more to slow his read, than to slow defenders. Put him back under C.
SEASON Reviews are usually done at the end of the season. A few are also done at the halfway mark. Starting in 2017, Eaglemaniacal.combegan treating the season like a game, and breaking it into four quarters.
In 2021, the NFL expanded the season to 17 games, which makes for an uneven split. So this year (at least), these Quarterly Reports will come after Weeks 5, 9, 13, and 17. (Ugh. I hate even looking at that format.)
NOTE: Due to the short week between games 5 and 6, this report was pushed back a week. The Second Quarter will pick up on time, after Week 9.
Since football is a hard sport, we’ll take a hard look at where our team currently stands, in relation to where it started. Then we can discuss where it needs to go next.
STATUS: 3 – 6 , 2nd place in the NFC East, (Points per game: +25.2/-24.2)
OPPONENTS:
( L ) Las Vegas
( W ) Detroit
( L ) Los Angeles Chargers
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OVERVIEW:
Progress has been made on Offense. In all three of these games, Head Coach Nick Sirianni has made a solid commitment to running the ball. As a result, the Offense is more stable and sustains drives better. So the Defense actually gets time to rest now.
If only the Defense could get off the field without giving up touchdowns first.
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GRADES:
QB: (D) Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception in three weeks, however he’s only been responsible for 3 scores (passing or running) during that same span. Part of that has been the establishment of our run game helping him out. He’s gone from attempting 34.6 passes per game in the first 6 games, to just 21.6 (65 total) over the last 3 games.
Unfortunately, his lower usage has only highlighted the flaws in his game. Being a one read QB, by default Hurts favors clear and easy passes. He takes as much as a route can pry from the defense. What he doesn’t do, is create with his eyes or his delivery. (If he ever learns to convincingly pump fake on a scramble, he’ll be a friggin Pro Bowler.)
Hurts is a very good triggerman, in terms of executing what’s laid out for him. If Chip Kelly were still the coach here, the Deshaun Watson trade rumors may not have gained any traction. However, most systems require a QB to think and decipher. Hurts is also easily punked and bullied out of attempting the sort of throws that separate franchise QB’s from Sam Bradford types.
Gardner Minshew came in and went 2/2 while playing hand-off machine, during mop-up time in Detroit.
RB: (B) Miles Sanders was hurt early in the game vs Vegas. Since then, the Eagles have been starting Boston Scott, and he has been productive as a runner. What he truly excels at however, is catching Screen passes and then getting lost in blockers. Unfortunately, he’s only been thrown 5 passes all season so far.
Promoted to the Active Roster is a guy who NEVER belonged on the Practice Squad in the first place, Mr. Jordan Howard. While it’s true that the Eagles have been good at running the ball in these last couple of weeks, the attitude of this run game is Howard. He’s not just running for yardage, he’s taking yardage when he’s out there. He enables the Eagles to impose their will.
While Kenneth Gainwell is playing about as much as he did when Sanders was healthy, but he’s not quite seeing the situations that he was. For example, he doesn’t get first quarter red zone action, and he hasn’t had a pass thrown his way in two games.
Overall though, the Eagles ground game has looked like a force to be reckoned with. Granted, these last three opponents weren’t the stiffest test, but for a team just finding the run, they can’t be ignored.
TE: ( C) Dallas Goedertput up 185 yards over these last 3 games (61.6), but it’s little more than window dressing. In those games, Goedert has played 161 downs, but drawn targets on just 18 of them (for 12 catches). Though his 18 targets represent nearly 1/3 of his QB’s 65 attempts over the same period, his 12 catches for no scores, indicates how little he’s been factoring into games.
Jack Stoll caught a 9 yard pass in the blowout over Detroit. He’s played quite a bit over these last two weeks, and with the resurgence of the run game, one has to wonder about how much of that success is due to his blocking. Converted QB Tyree Jacksonfinally got his feet wet vs the Chargers. He didn’t do much. Didn’t see a pass thrown his way. I think they just wanted him to get a look at game speed.
Despite giving the position credit for its contributions to the run game, More is expected from Goedert if he wants to show the world that he wasn’t just a well-protected back-up,
WR: (F) In these 3 games, Devonta Smith has seen 18 targets. The other four receivers have seen 14. Total.
OT: (B) The bookends of Lane Johnson and Jordan Mailataplayed three straight games for the first time this season. The result is a QB who doesn’t have to look at his line to know where people are, as he starts to pick his way through pressure. That has resulted in us surrendering an average of 1 sack per game, instead of 2. Which we did last quarter.
OG: (B) Lie and say that you miss Isaac Seumalo! Landon Dickerson despite being a rookie, seems like an improvement already. He doesn’t get ridden back into the QB on passing downs and, you don’t catch him standing around on run plays, since he’s always looking to hit someone.
Jack Driscoll has been plug-and-play all along the line, and has been decent to good (not great), when he plays. He doesn’t look like a long-term starter. What he looks like, is a guy who’ll hang with one team for 6 years, learn what’s needed in all of the roles, and deliver a reasonable facsimile of it, when called upon. Then he’ll sign a big free agent deal, full of guaranteed money to go elsewhere, where he’ll immediately look like a career back-up. Always amazes me when these guys leave their first team.
Nate “Too Big” Herbigfilled in for Driscoll vs Detroit and got to maul some Lions. Again, Nate is a solid (not great) interior force when called upon. He seems to have a little more upside than Driscoll, but it’s hard to feel they’re being judged accurately, when they’ve both been moved around so much, across two coaching staffs.
Given the losses taken at this position, it should be one of weakness, but it’s not. The best part, is, that it doesn’t have to be judged on a sliding scale, or a curve.
C: (B) Jason Kelcehas been holding the young guys together, and the errant snaps have been cut down due to the QB lining up under C more. It’s really a good look for the elder statesman, as he trots out what has to be his last race.
DE: (F) This position grabbed 4 sacks vs Detroit, and 0 in the other two games. There were 7 hits on the QB vs Detroit, and 0 in the other two games. Outside of the (then) 0 – 7 Lions, there have been no forced fumbles. There have been no fumble recoveries. This position practically doesn’t exist.
While a lot of the problem with our pass rush is tied to generously loose coverage, it’s impossible not to notice the lack of tackles for losses against the run, in any game NOT played vs the Lions. This means that these guys are just not being effective PERIOD.
Josh Sweatplayed better in past seasons on the right. So far this year, he’s been asked to play the left spot in the absence of Brandon Graham. I don’t think he has the strength for it. He doesn’t set the edge vs the run, and is too easy to re-route on his way to the passer.
DT: ( C) Opposing QB’s are getting rid of the ball too fast for this position to be effective pass rushers now. They are however, a big reason that over these three games, that we’ve allowed an average of 88.3 rushing yards per game. Particularly Fletcher Cox. They’ve also done a great job of keeping the MLB clean. It’s not worthy of a party, but it’s a building block.
OLB: (F) Genard Averyand Davion Taylor have been the starters during the last three games. Four really. Still, neither of them is making a noticeable impact out there. The coaching staff seems to want a long look at what Taylor has to offer, so he’s going to keep starting, regardless. Alex Singleton was benched after the win at Carolina, but with Taylor out there, Singleton would upgrade our tackle range and ball-skills.
MLB: (B) The Eagles outright cut Eric Wilson and elevated T.J. Edwards to the starting role. Edwards has been a key reason that rushing yards for our opponents have gone off a cliff, recently. He benefits from having two DT’s who command as much attention as they do, but to his credit, he does get off of blocks very well. As a result, he been a tackling machine.
S: (F) This position has produced 2 pass break-ups and some tackles in the last three games.
CB: (D) We are 3 – 0 this season when Darius Slay gets so much as a finger on the football. We are 0 – 5 when he doesn’t. Seems like the Defensive Coordinator should scheme him into positions where he can compete for the ball more.
Avonte Maddox was the only player at this position to show up in games without Detroit in them. Maddox snagged a pick vs Las Vegas, early in the game. Otherwise, over this span, we’re giving up a completion rate of 83 (88/106). Not factoring games named Detroit, the number is 87.5% (63/72).
LS: (B) Rick Lovato hasn’t blown any snaps, but he also has yet to make tackle on a coverage unit.
P: ( A) Arryn Siposs only had to punt 7 times in the last three games, with 2 fair caught and 3 returned for 36 yards. That’s 12 yards per return on punts averaging 45.7 yards in this period.
K: ( C) Jake Elliott has been 10/10 on extra points and 4/4 on field goals. The kickoff are alarming however. IN these three games, he’s kicked off 18 times, 8 were touchbacks, but 8 were returned for 222 yards (27.7). This has gotten worse since last quarter.
PR/KR: (F) WR Jalen Reagor has also disappeared on Special Teams. WR Quez Watkins averages 21 yards per kickoff return. Which again means, he should just take the touchbacks!
KC: (D) The kickoff coverage unit does a good job, but shouldn’t be put in a position to be tested so much. The 9.3 yard punt return average from last quarter needed to come down. And so it’s now up to 9.5 yards per return.
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SINCE LAST QUARTER:
The Offensive coaching staff seems to be getting it! We’re running the ball, so drives are more stable, the Defense now gets to rest, and we only punt half as much anymore. The mission was to get the coaching staff to stop being our biggest obstacle and that’s halfway what happened.
Defensively, the timid woodland creature who coaches our Defense, still gets skittish when he sees his shadow. He’s going to have to be replaced. Don’t tell me how smart and hardworking he is, when he keeps repeating the same stupid, lazy patterns.
MISSION FOR THIS QUARTER:
Get to playing man-press. These weak zones have the Eagles allowing a completion percentage north of 75. If it continues, we will set the record for worst completion rate in NFL HISTORY.
Here’s a crazy truth: At 3 – 6, we’re still in the thick of the playoff race. While going 2 – 2 over the next 4 games would probably be good enough to keep those hopes alive, 3 – 1 would almost certainly do the trick
LAST week we lost, but we saw that Head Coach Nick Sirianni, is going to be committed to running the ball, thus balancing the Offense, going forward. Now that defenses have to defend against receivers who can stretch the field and a run game that requires a loaded box, QB Jalen Hurts has a real opportunity to be the x-factor in games. Games like this one.
(BTW: “receivers who can stretch the field, and a run game that requires a loaded box“. We won a Super Bowl with that set-up. IJS)
So far the Broncos have gone 3 – 0 vs NFC East teams this year. The Eagles are 0 – 3 vs AFC West teams this year. A win here, keeps the Eagles from being swept by a division, and more importantly, keeps the Broncos, the Broncos, from sweeping our entire division.
A win gives us a record of 4 – 6, and means that we’d hold onto second place in the NFC East for another week. It would also keep those 6th and 7th playoff seeds within our reach. We’d still be in the thick of it.
Falling to 3 – 7 with a loss, wouldn’t mathematically end our playoff hopes, but we’d be Apollo, out on his feet, waiting for the kill-shot from Drago. That can’t be how this one ends. They’re just the Broncos. It’s all flesh and bone. We just have to want it more.
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Broncos:
1)Press Coverage: If we don’t do this, it’ll be another game where we allow a completion rate of 80% or higher. We have the CB’s who can do the job, they just have to be turned loose, where they’re allowed to. Both of the Broncos starting WR’s are 6’4”, so we can’t play around with those guys, and let them into jump-ball situations.
2)Play-action Inside:Now that we’re actually running the ball, play-action is a weapon that we can use convincingly. The ball can now, SHOULD NOW, come out quickly to the Slot and the TE positions. That will help us get WR Jalen Reagorand TE Dallas Goedert more involved, loosening up the opposing interior, and keeping our run game going.
3)Taylor-made Headache: Get OLB Davion Taylor in on a couple of blitzes. Walk him up between DT Fletcher Cox and DE Josh Sweat (if he plays), and actually send Taylor on a blitz a few times. He has the speed to drop in coverage, but also to get up on the QB quickly. We need to put him in positions to make plays.
More than sacks, what we want is to get QB Teddy Bridgewater moving his feet a lot in the pocket. We want to alter his usual throwing platform, and throw his mechanics off slightly. If possible, we want to make him beat us with his athleticism. See how I made a little joke there?
4)Get Howard In Space: Throwing the ball to RB’s was supposed to be a hallmark of this Offense, but we haven’t really seen it since RB Miles Sanderswent down. RB Jordan Howard has been a bull running through defensive fronts, but to see him get a Screen pass with blockers in front of him… Hey, why not do something easy?
If we do these Four Things,
Denver’s banged up offensive line shouldn’t be able to put rabbits out of their hat for four straight quarters. We’re have more talent in the trenches than they do. So long as we address these peripheral aspects, we should be able to capitalize on our advantage up front.
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PREDICTION: EAGLES 28 – Broncos 22
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.
New categories include an EXCLUSIVE weekly Offensive Line Report (Rushing TD’s + 3rd and 4th downs converted:missed of 2 yards or less – sacks allowed); as well as Drive Killer (Int – FR – 4th down Tackles – FF – TD).
Rushing: ( R) RB Jordan Howard (17 – 71 – 4.1 – 1 – 0)
Receiving: (S) WR Devonta Smith (6 – 5 – 116 – 23.2 – 1)
Offensive Line Report: (2 + 2:0 – 1)
Drive Killer: (S) MLB T.J. Edwards (0 – 0 – 1 – 0 – 0)
Sack Leader: NO QUALIFIER
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I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned in Four Things: Chargersdid the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) Run the ball:I said 10 – 15 hand-offs in the first half is what we needed. Well, we handed it off 18 times, and went into the half with a 10 – 7 lead. Reserve Jordan Howard had 11 of his 17 carries in the first half. Starting RB Boston Scott(10 – 40 – 4.0 – 0 – 0) had 7 of his, in the first. The formula was working like a charm.
The problem was, that they only saw a combined 9 hand-off after the half. Since I put s much emphasis on the first half in FT, I have to consider this technically “done”. However, what I wrote was not the spirit of what I meant. This is a cheapy, but… (DONE)
2) Lean, not Press: We didn’t even try. Chargers receivers ran uncontested and unmolested all day long. It was a horrible display of coaching. I say that because, if the defensive coordinator wanted the Defense to behave otherwise, he would have called other coverages.
Instead what happened was we allowed a completion percentage of 84.2. Yet again, an opposing QB was out there, practically playing catch with his son. (NOT DONE)
3) Get them on the ground:Early drives did not begin promisingly, as the Eagles kept doing that crap where they hold up the ball carrier for strip attempt. However, after the Chargers bulled their way in for a score, the Eagles (for the most part) began just getting players down on the ground.
Unfortunately, tackling was the only aspect of our Defense that was working. Coverage, pass rush, disguising looks,, etc. All that was left in Carolina, I guess.
Can I just say, while we’re discussing tackling, we seem better when S Anthony Harris (3 – 0 – 0 – 0) is sitting games out. Maybe someone should pour boiling water on his lap, then hand him the kettle.(DONE)
4) Completions in the middle: Devonta Smith’s 28 yard touchdown started as a catch in the middle. It allowed him to find room to evade defenders, and make a enough extra yardage to score. It was a great play. Unfortunately, there weren’t many of it’s kind.
Many of Hurts pass attempts get pushed outside the numbers, and often to the sidelines. This works against the Offense on many levels: It increases time the receiver has to wait for the ball to reach. It gives defenders more time to break on the ball. It limits room to run for extra yardage. We have to do better. (NOT DONE)
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So we managed2 of Four Things this week. Maybe we’ll do better next week against a Bronco’s team that has 3 of their five wins against our division. That’s right! The only thing standing between the Broncos and a sweep of the NFC East, is us walking into their house and doing to them, what they did to Dallas this week.
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On The Whole:
We are seeing solid signs of growth in Head Coach Nick Siranni and therefore, in the team under him. Two examples would be Sirianni’s clock management right before the half, and the Defense not jumping off-sides, when Los Angeles tried to induce them, on 4th and 1. The first was an example of being present in the moment, the other of being accountable to discipline.
Our Defense on the other hand remains a joke. This is because DCJonathan Gannon is a pussy. There is no aggression in him. No passion. He’s timid and afraid. Even though what he’s doing will get him fired, he’s too cowardly to alter it for any length of time. Even after he sees that the alterations work.
If Sirianni is going to have a coaching future, he’s going to have to fire Gannon. Gannon is dead weight. An anchor. An albatross. He’s a rotted cucumber and two D batteries.
You can tell by his face, that he’s a guy who counts his strokes. Out loud. While checking his heart rate on his Apple Watch. Then when you don’t finish, he blames you because the metrics indicate that you should’ve by now. Don’t believe it? Listen to one of his press conferences. We gotta get rid of this guy!
THANKS to the NFL deciding to send 15 out of 16 teams in each conference to the playoffs, the Eagles have a chance at the postseason this year. YAY! Everyone gets ice cream, and a trophy! Everyone’s a WINNER! Well, everyone except that one team. Shame on them, for getting left out. Next time be special. Exactly like everyone else is.
I’m kidding of course, but not about the Eagles having a chance. That part is 100% true.
However, for those who really don’t know (and are too ashamed to ask), only 7 teams per conference get a seat at the postseason table. Four division winners, and 3 Wild Cards. Current math puts the 3 – 5 Eagles just on the outside of that picture. We sit a game behind the 4 – 4 Panthers, and a tie-break behind the 49ers. So just how far-fetched, or how probable, is our chance at seeing the 2021 playoffs?
Yes Jim. Playoffs.
Our last two games vs the Raiders and Lions, have signaled that Head Coach Nick Sirianni is learning the importance of balancing his Offense. No great shakes there, but consider that the hardest part of our schedule is behind us. Then add that 7 of the remaining 9 games are either at home, or played in our backyard (NYG, NYJ, WAS).
Provided that our team can stop shooting themselves in the foot, there’s no reason that the remainder of the season (Weeks 9 – 18) can’t be really, really good for the Eagles..
Weeks 12 through 17 could be a five game win streak (NYG, NYJ, WAS, NYG, WAS). On second thought, it should be a five game win streak. Which leaves the remaining 4 games (LAC, DEN, NO, DAL) up for grabs. That said, I fully expect New Orleans head coach Sean Payton aka Elderly Frankie Muniz,
to take Sirianni to school during Week 11. (Not a bad class for a young coach to take, frankly.)
With that five game win streak, plus a 50/50 split of the other 4, our Eagles could be a 10 win team this year. Currently the #5 seed seems to belong to the 7 – 1 Rams, and #6 so far looks like the 5 – 2 Saints. The Panthers are 4 – 4 with the #7 seed. As of now.
Everyone else in the NFC has 3 wins or fewer. So 10 wins will likely end up being enough to get into the postseason. So there’s still a path to the postseason, dear friends. And now that we run the ball, and blitz out of man coverage, we’re finally on that path.
CONTINUE THE WIN STREAK!!! We ran the ball like maniacs last week. Our opponent this week, is weak, against the run. Ben Franklin is no fan of eagles, but he took a break from pimpin’ pimpin’ today to call Head Nick Sirianni and tell him “Bitch, y’all need to run the pig.”
Word, Ben. Even unto thine mother.
A win this week puts us at 4 – 5 , and keeps us just on the outside of the Wild Card picture. (Tomorrow I’m putting out an article that discusses our playoff chances. Don’t miss it!) A loss drops us to 3 – 6, but doesn’t really hurt our playoff chances that much. (Seriously. You need to read that article tomorrow.)
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Chargers:
1) Run the ball:The Chargers are dead last in the NFL in run defense. That reason alone suggests running the ball down their throats. Add to that, the fact that it wears down their pass rushers.. Now add to that, the fact that it makes play-action believable. Then add, that it will attract 8-man fronts, thereby opening up the vertical passing game.
We need this game to start with 10 – 15 first half hand-offs. While offensive balance is great, the primary reason we want to run the rock is, to eat up clock, and limit the Chargers opportunity to possess the ball. Especially in the first half. BTW: I don’t want to knock RBBoston Scott, but I’d rather see RB Jordan Howard wearing down their front.
2) Lean, not Press: The Chargers starting WR’s are 6’2” 211 and 6’4” 218. Neither is a burner, but both are very good route runners, who can pull down a 50/50 ball. On one hand, it wouldn’t be smart to give them free releases and let them build a head of steam. On the other hand, having our CB’s get caught up in hand-fighting, will result in easy slants and broken tackles.
The call for the day is re-directing the WR’s. Lining up close and staying tight, without being too handsy. We want to lean into the receiver, not press them. The idea is to get the QB to see them as covered, then move to his next read. That combined with solid pressure, will severely limit the Chargers ability to push the ball downfield.
3) Get them on the ground:They don’t have a rep for it, but physically, the Chargers are a deceptively strong team. RB Austin Ekler is widely regarded as one the NFL’s strongest players, pound for pound. As a result they make a lot of their yardage after contact. Much of that comes from them dragging defenders who are holding up the ball-carrier, trying to strip at the ball.
How often has that worked? In 484 offensive snaps this year, Chargers opponents have made stripping at the ball, pay-off exactly FOUR times, which equals 0.00826% of the time. You will see better odds from a bookie, than from trying strip Chargers players. A few strip attempts are fine, but in general, just make the tackle. Get them on the ground, and don’t give away free yardage.
4) Completions in the middle: Too often QB Jalen Hurts is rifling the ball at or along the sidelines. Targets between the numbers and behind the LB’s, would be easier for him to reach and keep the chains moving. Especially if we can get the Chargers to buy our play-action.
Like this!
If we do these Four Things,
The national media will be telling the world about how the Eagles have turned a corner, and that “Flower Power” must be working. If we do all four of these, the Eagles win this one in a walk. The story you won’t hear is that the Chargers QB isn’t as quite as good vs solid CB’s. He has his hands full this week.
That being said, the Chargers are a feisty team. They have four wins and three of them are 4th quarter comebacks, featuring game winning drives. We have to do things to take them out of this game. After which we have to stand on the gas.
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PREDICTION:EAGLES 27 – Chargers23
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.
TOLD you so! In my QB of the Future article, I said, regardless of whether QB Jalen Hurtsis healthy, the Eagles will find a reason to get QB Gardner Minshewon the field, around Week 8. Well the Lions game was Week 8, wasn’t it? Did Minshew play? Yes indeedy he did! I saw this one coming from a mile out.
Didn’t you?
I figured the Eagles would jinn up some reason, but the blowout was good enough. In fact, it was the best-case scenario. Notice how the words “QB controversy” aren’t on anybody’s lips, right now? Minshew threw 2 passes, completing both for just 11 yards. Otherwise, he played hand-off machine, and didn’t even attempt anything interesting.
Yet.
This isn’t me trying to create a story. Let me say this outright. Right now there isn’t a story. No one is trying to spook, or unsettle you. No one is trying trick you into click-bait, ladies.
What I’m doing, is what I told you I’d do. Over the last couple of years, I think people (me included), have forgotten just how kick-ass I am at this. So I’ve decided to make a point of reminding you of who I am, and why you should come here. So, I’m not leaving a prediction open to interpretation. When I nail it, I’m going to point it out directly.
I had plenty more to say in the ‘QB of the Future’ article, and the one that came before it Killing Off All Starting QB’s. Some of it will take seasons to unfold. Which is fine by me. Time after time, I’ve mentioned on here that I’m a patient man. I cannot be tired by waiting, because I don’t just attach myself to an idea. I invest in it. I evolve with it, if need be.
Rest assured, I don’t just seem different. I am different.
As for Gardner Minshew? Keep your eyes open. We’ll talk.
Well… I’ll talk. And if you have an opinion, you can talk back.
New categories include an EXCLUSIVE weekly Offensive Line Report (Rushing TD’s + 3rd and 4th downs converted:missed of 2 yards or less – sacks allowed); as well as Drive Killer (Int – FR – 4th down Tackles – FF – TD).
Receiving: (S) TE Dallas Goedert (7 – 6 – 72 – 12.0 – 0)
Offensive Line Report: (4 + 2:0 – 0)
Drive Killer: (S) CB Darius Slay (0 – 1 – 0 – 0 – 1)
Sack Leader: (S) DE Josh Sweat(3 – 2.0 – 0 – 0)
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I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these Four Things articles. It’s to point out what we need to address BEFORE the game. Then AFTER the game, there’s a no-bullshit assessment of whether or not the Eagles did any of what they needed to do, to ensure the win.
So how much of what I mentioned in Four Things: Lionsdid the Eagles actually get around to doing? Well let’s see:
1) Physical Coverage:Can’t complain about the coverage on the ends. Detroit’s top two WR’s caught 3 balls for 46 yards, with only 6 being thrown in their direction. Our CB’s practically erased them from the game.
The opposing TE saw far too many free releases. He caught 10 of 11 passes, but for just 89 yards. If he weren’t harmless, this could have cost us the game. This has to be cleaned up. Still, we shutdown outside passing, contested balls, and allowed just 73.5% of their passes, on routes that rarely seemed deeper than 7 yards. (DONE)
2) Hands Under Balls:Lining up under Center. I seriously didn’t expect to see this much at all, but I was pleasantly surprised. While we still spent far too much time in the Shotgun, we ran quite a bit from under C. If this gets incorporated into the passing game more, it’ll make Hurts look like a whole new QB. (DONE)
3) Run the Ball: The ball was handed off 39 times in this game. That’s not a typo. There were 39 hand-offs, for 165 yards (4.2 ypc), and 4 touchdowns.
That’s compared to just 16 pass attempts, (and 10 runs by the QB). With that much help, Hurts didn’t have to carry the Offense. The result was that he was able to be part of team victory, which was never in question.(DONE)
4) Find Our Ego: Body language and physicality. Chippiness, and winning at the line of scrimmage. All of that was on display in this one. We collected 5 sacks, 3 tackles for losses, and held their ground game to 57 yards on 18 carries (3.1ypc). This is not the Eagles team that we’ve become accustomed to this year, but I wouldn’t mind getting to know them! (DONE)
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This is 4 of the Four Things being done for the first time this year, and the margin of victory was 38 points. Next week we get to see how consistent we can be with what we’ve learned, as we host the 4 – 3 Chargers and their league-WORST run defense.
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On The Whole:
Everyone else wants to talk about how they hope that all the running carries over into next week. I on the other hand, am glad that disaster was averted. If we’d lost to an 0 – 7 team, there would have been an implosion.
The Raiders (rumored) inquiry about trading for DT Fletcher Cox (1 – 0 – 0 – 0), would have probably picked up momentum. Head Coach Nick Sirianni would probably have to fire his Defensive Coordinator Jonathan Gannon, to keep from losing the locker room. Deafening calls for Sirianni’s head by the fan base, would finally force owner Jeff Lurie behind a podium, to issue some sort of statement.
It would have been a shit show.
Instead, we’re left to wonder if this new outlook on Offense, will be enough to beat the Chargers and get us to 4 – 5. We’re left wondering if we’re going to attack more on Defense, from now on. On the whole, it’s not a bad place to be.
LAST week we started off strong. A balanced march to a score. Then a red zone interception. Then a turd hit the fan. Hey, hopefully Head Coach Nick Sirianni learned some valuables lessons from getting publicly mushroom stamped last week. By an interim head coach, no less!
This week we get the ultimate gimme, vs an 0 – 7 Detroit team. They have a couple of decent RB’s, and solid young TE, but other than that… Their best LB is a Dollar Store version of LB Alex Singleton. Their top defensive lineman is a guy who used to be Michael Brockers. Their NT wears 54 as his jersey number. They’re just a mess. Just a hot– They’re like a pocketful of boiled pizza.
This is as close to a gift wrapped “W” as you get in sports. Which is why I’m TERRIFIED. A win here won’t mean much to us. A loss though… We can’t take a loss. Not after Sirianni’s “Flower Power” speech on Wednesday. There is only so much I can take in one month.
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The point of Four Things isn’t to predict a winner, it’s to discuss which tactics will practically guarantee our Eagles this win. CAUTION: I don’t have the faintest clue as to what a point spread is, and I know even less about how it works. I know football and that’s IT. If you use FT as a gambling tool, you are trying to lose your money, and will deserve it when you do.
So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Lions:
1. Physical Coverage: Not being physical early in routes, we’re not even disrupting timing, so opponents are executing plays as if they were in practice. The result has been us allowing completion percentages of 80 or higher in 4 of the of the last 5 weeks. The one game where we didn’t, was at Carolina.
If receivers aren’t allowed free releases, and we play Man coverage, instead of these loose underneath zones, our pass rush will magically reappear. So will turnovers. We played heavy Man vs Carolina and picked off 3 passes and got 3 sacks. In every game besides, we’ve been in Zone. This isn’t rocket surgery, folks! We have to be more physical in coverage.
2. Hands Under Balls: This Offense is based on being in the Shotgun. That won’t change this week. What we can do, is get the QB under Center for more than just Sneaks and kneel downs. The run game and play-action are going to be far more effective from Under Center than in the ‘gun. There’d also be fewer chances for bad snaps, which QB Jalen Hurts has proven poor at corralling.
3. Run the Ball: How did the Eagles look last week when there was balance? How did the Eagles look last week once that balance was taken way? (By our coach!) There can’t exist a starker example.
Hurts might be good as part of an NFL team, but he isn’t capable of carrying an NFL team. Don’t hand me what percentage of our Offense he is. That shit is meaningless. Even 100% of not enough, still comes out to not enough.
Get that man some help!
4. Find Our Ego:This week’s opponent is 0 – 7. That’s not just their record, that’s what they are. That’s who they are. They are a trash team. As bad as we’ve been, they are clearly worse. Knowing this, seeing this, our players need to ask themselves: “ Is the man across from me, is better than I am?”
Body language, and physicality. Chippiness, and winning at the line of scrimmage. Those are the things that will tell us if they asked that question. Does it still take 2 or 3 Eagles to tackle a single Lions RB, or do we have to chalk any outlines after a hit? If our guys ask themselves “Is he more man than me?” they will find all the fuel they need to not just defeat, but dominate this inferior opponent.
If we do these Four Things,
There is no way the lions are supposed to win this game. They outright lack the firepower to fend off any sort of coherent attack. If we do TWO of these, we should win this game. All four should result in a nasty blowout.
HOWEVER, after Sirianni’s Flower Speech, I’m concerned that he may have lost the locker room. Whether he already has or not, if they lose this game, I can’t imagine that he’d still have them in any capacity. He’d almost have to be fired. Sirianni can’t afford this loss.
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PREDICTION: EAGLES 28 – Lions 13
Check back in a couple of days for Four Things Reviewed, and we’ll discuss how it went.
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 