Spread offense

All posts tagged Spread offense

“NICK FOLES ISN’T SPECIAL”

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/07/22
Posted in: Coaching, Offense, Players. Tagged: , , , . 15 Comments

z-one off-djax500

DOES Nick Foles have anything to prove? Some fans don’t think so. They’ve seen enough already, and they’re convinced that we have our QB of the future. Most fans however, seem to want to see more before they award him the Key to the City. After all, (as some have said) how hard can it be to throw TD’s to DeSean Jackson?

There is no doubt that Foles had a great statistical season in 2013. He already has a uniform in Canton, as his game against the Raiders was one for the ages. Sort of. Maybe. (If you don’t look too close at the state of the Raiders coming into that game.) You know what?! History won’t care about that. It’ll only record what he did. Why or how he did it, nobody cares about. (Or so some would say.) But we’ll move on.

The thing about Foles stats last year is that they seem so….familiar somehow. I mean of course he had a season like nobody has ever seen, except for the fact that, well… I’m sure we’ve seen it before. But where?

Oh yeah. Oregon.

Since 2007  (seven seasons) the primary QB’s in Chip Kelly’s system have produced 204 touchdowns compared to just 44 interceptions. That’s regardless of who the QB was, or who the coach running the system was. No really. Take a look right below.

Chart- Chips QB's

Did you see Dennis Dixon’s 2007 season, which was Kelly’s first year as Oregon’s OC. Now look at Dennis Dixon prior to that year. He goes from a turnover machine, to a guy who almost can’t commit one.

How about Dixon’s successor Jeremiah Masoli. His numbers aren’t stellar, but look at how low his turnovers are. That is until he leaves Oregon and goes to Mississippi. Suddenly he’s a turnover machine.

How about Masoli’s Oregon successor, Darron Thomas. (By this point Kelly is now the HC and Mark Helfrich has taken over as the OC.) Look at those ridiculous numbers. Did you notice how low the turnovers are again? Remind you of anyone?

Now look at Thomas’s successor, Marcus Mariota. His numbers are also ridiculous. And AGAIN with the low turnovers! Full disclosure: In Mariota’s second year, Kelly was here in Philly, but his former OC (Helfrich) is now the HC, and guess what system they run at Oregon. If you said Kelly’s Spread, give yourself a star.

So Kelly comes here and takes a 3rd round, 6TD / 5Int, 1-5 QB, who was flat out outplayed head to head in the preseason by Michael Vick; and suddenly, for the 5th (primary) QB, IN A ROW, Kelly strikes gold. On FIVE straight QB’s. FIVE! All of which played anywhere from mediocre to horrid outside of Kelly’s system.All of them. In fact, the only QB that Kelly has ever worked with who enjoyed any level of football success outside of this system, was Vick . (Dixon is on Buffalo’s Practice Squad. Masoli is currently playing poorly in the CFL. Thomas was already bounced from the CFL, and was benched 3 games into the season in the AFL.)

If the system can turn bad into good, and removal from the system can turn good into shit, then it’s fair to say “Hey. Maybe it’s the system, and not the athlete.” Which then brings up the questions: What if Nick Foles isn’t special? And is there a downside to having a system that doesn’t need a special QB? (Before you say Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer, remember that those teams were carried by powerful defenses.)

Last year we had the benefit of a soft schedule, and a system that was being adapted to the NFL’s rules, so no one had much time to scout it. This year we have a schedule befitting a 10-6 playoff team, and the league has had time to put us under the microscope. This will be the season that tells the world that either we can play with the big boys, or 2013 was a fluke. Just a flash in the pan. 

Make no mistake people, Nick Foles has plenty to prove in 2014, but he’s got plenty of company along for that ride.

 

 

WHY THE EAGLES SYSTEM IS CHANGING

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/07/12
Posted in: Coaching, Offense. Tagged: , , . 4 Comments
NICK FOLES!

NICK FOLES!

THE truth is, many of us knew that the system was going to change, what’s more important however, is to understand why the system is going to change.

Lots of people (and I’m one of them) don’t completely trust the assertion by Chip Kelly that Nick Foles is his guy at QB for the long haul. I’m just not sold that Foles fits Kelly’s system.

It’s not that I think we need a running QB for this system. Nick Foles isn’t a running QB, and last year he ran this system just fine. Of course that all depends on which “this” you mean when you discuss this system.

What we’ll run in 2014 will be decidedly different than what we ran in 2013. I first said that on March 18th when I wrote about the Sproles Effect; and I said it again on March 20th  when I discussed how we’d be fine after trading DeSean Jackson. Now it seems that a few days ago (July 8th), Eagles insider Ron Jaworski has also said it. Everybody who follows Eaglemaniacal.com was probably glad to see that Jaws had finally caught up to what the rest of us had known for months.

Last year we ran a kind of “Vertical Spread” but we no longer have the pieces (DJax) to do that. In football when you can’t go vertical, you go horizontal, so Kelly is countering by doing something sneaky. He is gradually transitioning us to a system that almost mirrors what he ran at Oregon. Oh, you don’t see it? Well then allow me to break it down.

 

First, we’ll look at what it is. Do you know why Kelly’s system is so QB friendly?  Because it doesn’t require the QB to lead the Offense in the traditional sense.  As a collegiate coach (both as an OC and a HC) only once in 6 years did Kelly’s offense even attempt 400 passes.

OC

2007: 413 passes/ 607 rushes

2008: 373 passes/ 581 rushes

HC

2009: 338 passes/ 540 rushes

2010: 395 passes/ 614 rushes

2011: 386 passes/ 619 rushes

2012: 373 passes/ 672 rushes

Every year after 2009 the passes went down and the rushes went up. FYI: Last year, the Eagles: 508 passes/ 500 rushes. If things go well, expect that ratio to change sides. At least.

In a system like that you don’t need a DJax or an Andre Johnson, or for that matter even a Nick Foles. The QB isn’t so much making reads as he’s simply delivering the ball. It’s almost idiot proof. So far no QB Kelly has started going back to 2007 has had any trouble operating this system. And so far not one of them has been a viable NFL starter away from it, as Kelly doesn’t teach QB’s how to be QB’s. (Buyer beware poaching an Eagles QB while Kelly is here.)

 

And now for the “Why”! At Oregon where Kelly was the Head Coach from 2009 to 2012, he frequently rotated 2 RB’s. In fact, take a look at how many carries the second string RB got in 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. Respectively, that’s 61 (in 13 games), 91 (in 13), 152 (in 14), and 92 (in 13). Last year Bryce Brown logged just 75 in 16 games, and you can tell just by eyeballing it that the big back didn’t get as many opportunities as his collegiate counterparts.

Kelly has had most of his success with smaller, quicker RB’s like 194lb LaMicheal James, 190lb Kenjon Barner, and 176lb DeAnthony Thomas. So out goes 220lb Bryce Brown, and in comes 190lb Darren Sproles, along with 200lb WR/RB-tweener Josh Huff. Coincidental, you say? Okay. I’ll keep going.

Look at Oregon’s 2011 again and also the Eagles 2013. Tell me if you can see any similarities between Foles and Oregon’s QB. And please, don’t forget to also compare those rushing stats!

Now in any of those other years, 2009, 2010, or 2012, take a look at how many rushes there were by the QB… Wow right?

What Nick Foles ran in 2013, was NOT what Chip Kelly prefers to run. We have yet to see Kelly’s actual system, and Nick Foles does not strike me as a 100 carry per season QB.

Basically this shift to a horizontal approach is a slow transition from what Kelly has to run, to what he’d like to run.

So yeah. The system is changing. And now you know why.

 

WHO CAN STOP US?

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/06/14
Posted in: Coaching, Offense. Tagged: , , . Leave a comment
Going No Ware in 2014

Going No Ware in 2014

COUPLE days ago I wrote how in two steps the Eagles Spread Offense could be shut down. Those twos steps were: Play Cover Two and consistently send six. While I didn’t say it would be easy to do, it’s a sound and proven strategy against this type offensive system.

Hundreds of fans saw the story and fewer than 10 people disagreed with the strategy. This indicates that either Philly has some pretty knowledgeable fans overall, or that only the knowledgeable ones come to my website. I’m good with either.

The strategy itself brings up a couple of  interesting questions. Who is equipped to execute such a scheme? What exactly do you need?

1)  You need a DC with the balls to play Cover Two and give up all those easy completions underneath. Despite all the yelling some coaches do, having the stones to go out on a limb and do something bold is rare. Which is why you so often hear that “The NFL is a copycat league”.

2) You need excellent play from Safeties who play Safety, not quasi-Cornerback. On the surface that means of course the Safeties have to make tackles on those short easy completions. But with Chip Kelly’s system being run-based, it means the Safeties have to fill their run fits and reliably cause a pile, especially if they can’t make the tackle. For example, note what happens here with no Safety to fill the gaps.

You can’t beat a running team by thinking pass first. (New Orleans and Minnesota understood that.)

3) Consistently send six is easy to say and not so easy to do, yet if you can master it, you can cause headaches for any system, coach, or QB. Late Eagles DC Jim Johnson understood that you simply need to mix who you send, how often and from where. During his time here we couldn’t reach the passer with 4, so he took to sending anywhere from 5 to 7 players on almost every given down. In case you need a frame of reference: 1 blitz every 5 downs (20%) is a high number. Now here’s a breakdown of just how often JJ dialed up blitzes.  (Seriously don’ skip it. Check it out.) We won the Division how many times behind that approach? That’s because if it’s well managed, it’s deadly. Again it also has a successful track record against this type of system.

So just who can pull this off? Provided that opponents can get quick penetration by an unblocked rusher, pretty much anybody. Free runners mean short passes, at which point you make the tackle underneath and deliver the big hit on the passer. Even if it’s late.

In today’s safety conscious NFL, late hits will mean 15 yard flags. Fine. As the expression goes it’s the “cost of doing business”. You follow it with another big hit. Even if it’s late. Look at it this way, if you were Chip Kelly would you sacrifice Nick Foles early in the season for a single TD drive? Of course not. We need him “next week”, so the smart thing is not to let him get beat to shit. So you keep either a RB or a TE in to block. This changes the Spread concept because now the defense is less spread, with fewer people to cover. This is known as a ‘win’ for the defense.

It’s throwback football. When your opponent is scheming you off the field, you shift into caveman and make it a war of attrition. You make ‘em too tired and sore to be clever. Done with some discipline, ANY team is capable of this.

STOPPING THE EAGLES OFFENSE IN JUST 2 STEPS

Posted by The BEAST on 2014/06/10
Posted in: Coaching, Offense. Tagged: , , , . 10 Comments
Image courtesy of sportige.com

Image courtesy of sportige.com

SOMEONE in an Eagles group I belong to, pointed out an article (written by another Eagles fan) that summarizes how one Redskins fan said he would stop Chip Kelly’s offense. The summary made the ‘skins fan sound like a moron, and I had a laugh; but then I thought “an Eagles fan did do the summary”. So I went to the source material to see it for myself.  

I’m glad I did. I have to say, there was a lot of sound research and football knowledge on display there. Nothing the guy said was technically wrong, and he made some of the points that I made when I did a breakdown of why we were so successful last year. The only problem with his “blueprint” was that he put in too many moving parts.

So how would I do it?

Step one to stopping someone, is understanding what they do. What do the Eagles do? We run the Spread. Okay so what is the Spread?  The Spread is a system that typically uses a 3 WR formation (sometimes 4), to spread a defense horizontally, so it can force man coverage concepts that open up the middle of the field for short passes and the run.

What Kelly added to this system was a frenetic pace, and the constant employing of “the mesh” which basically is a legal way of running a ‘pick play’. (If you want to know more about “the mesh”, Sheil Kapadia has an excellent article on it.) Kelly also tweaked the system a bit by frequently using TE’s in the place of slot WR’s, though they are mostly used as receivers and not much in pass protection. So the Eagles typically pass block with just the 5 O-linemen, with a touch of chipping or slow releases.

 

Now some historical perspective:

Back in the 1990’s there were already 2 teams heavily employing the Spread: the Houston Oilers and the Atlanta Falcons. Back then however, everybody called it the Run and Shoot (RAS).

Both the Falcons and Oilers scored a ton of points using this system. Neither team had a TE of note from their RAS days, primarily because they almost never used one. Even in the run game. The result was a lot of hits on the QB. The sack numbers for QB’s Warren Moon and Chris Miller really don’t tell the whole story. Miller had the misfortune to play in the same division as Pat Swilling and Rickey Jackson (Saints), Kevin Greene (Rams), and Charles Haley (49ers). (If you aren’t familiar with those names, look them up.) There were a lot of late hits and free runs to the QB. Miller missed quite a few games.

 

What I’m saying is the Spread is expensive. It requires you to gamble with the most precious resource on your team: Your starting QB. It’s why you don’t see a lot of it these days. For example: Bill Belichik has been recently borrowing concepts from Chip Kelly. Now take a look at Tom Brady’s recent sack numbers and completion percentage. However Brady’s recent TD/Int ratio indicates that Nick Foles (or another QB) may be able to produce similar numbers in this system.

 

Once more: The Spread is the Run and Shoot. Kelly’s version is run at a faster pace, while getting as close to cheating as possible without justifying the flag being thrown. That’s our Offense in a nutshell.

So then how do you stop it? Simple. Play some Cover-2 and consistently send 6, (since the Eagles typically block with 5). It’s Jim Johnson 101.

That’s it. Really. You don’t need 80 steps like what’s listed by our Redskins friend up there, just 2. Make sure the hit is delivered (even if it’s late), and make the tackle on the short completion.

That’s it. It’s not easy, but it’s simple. You make it a game of attrition. Because limping QB’s can’t run the hurry-up, and scared QB’s rush their passes, or get flagged for intentional grounding. (Remember those?)

It was this formula (and everyone running some version of the WCO) that ran the RAS out of the NFL. And as I said in another article: If I know this, you can bet NFL DC’s do too.