DOES Nick Foles have anything to prove? Some fans don’t think so. They’ve seen enough already, and they’re convinced that we have our QB of the future. Most fans however, seem to want to see more before they award him the Key to the City. After all, (as some have said) how hard can it be to throw TD’s to DeSean Jackson?
There is no doubt that Foles had a great statistical season in 2013. He already has a uniform in Canton, as his game against the Raiders was one for the ages. Sort of. Maybe. (If you don’t look too close at the state of the Raiders coming into that game.) You know what?! History won’t care about that. It’ll only record what he did. Why or how he did it, nobody cares about. (Or so some would say.) But we’ll move on.
The thing about Foles stats last year is that they seem so….familiar somehow. I mean of course he had a season like nobody has ever seen, except for the fact that, well… I’m sure we’ve seen it before. But where?
Oh yeah. Oregon.
Since 2007 (seven seasons) the primary QB’s in Chip Kelly’s system have produced 204 touchdowns compared to just 44 interceptions. That’s regardless of who the QB was, or who the coach running the system was. No really. Take a look right below.
Did you see Dennis Dixon’s 2007 season, which was Kelly’s first year as Oregon’s OC. Now look at Dennis Dixon prior to that year. He goes from a turnover machine, to a guy who almost can’t commit one.
How about Dixon’s successor Jeremiah Masoli. His numbers aren’t stellar, but look at how low his turnovers are. That is until he leaves Oregon and goes to Mississippi. Suddenly he’s a turnover machine.
How about Masoli’s Oregon successor, Darron Thomas. (By this point Kelly is now the HC and Mark Helfrich has taken over as the OC.) Look at those ridiculous numbers. Did you notice how low the turnovers are again? Remind you of anyone?
Now look at Thomas’s successor, Marcus Mariota. His numbers are also ridiculous. And AGAIN with the low turnovers! Full disclosure: In Mariota’s second year, Kelly was here in Philly, but his former OC (Helfrich) is now the HC, and guess what system they run at Oregon. If you said Kelly’s Spread, give yourself a star.
So Kelly comes here and takes a 3rd round, 6TD / 5Int, 1-5 QB, who was flat out outplayed head to head in the preseason by Michael Vick; and suddenly, for the 5th (primary) QB, IN A ROW, Kelly strikes gold. On FIVE straight QB’s. FIVE! All of which played anywhere from mediocre to horrid outside of Kelly’s system.All of them. In fact, the only QB that Kelly has ever worked with who enjoyed any level of football success outside of this system, was Vick . (Dixon is on Buffalo’s Practice Squad. Masoli is currently playing poorly in the CFL. Thomas was already bounced from the CFL, and was benched 3 games into the season in the AFL.)
If the system can turn bad into good, and removal from the system can turn good into shit, then it’s fair to say “Hey. Maybe it’s the system, and not the athlete.” Which then brings up the questions: What if Nick Foles isn’t special? And is there a downside to having a system that doesn’t need a special QB? (Before you say Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer, remember that those teams were carried by powerful defenses.)
Last year we had the benefit of a soft schedule, and a system that was being adapted to the NFL’s rules, so no one had much time to scout it. This year we have a schedule befitting a 10-6 playoff team, and the league has had time to put us under the microscope. This will be the season that tells the world that either we can play with the big boys, or 2013 was a fluke. Just a flash in the pan.
Make no mistake people, Nick Foles has plenty to prove in 2014, but he’s got plenty of company along for that ride.
EAGLEMANIACAL.com 
So why didn’t Vick look Super before Foles took over?
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Actually he did. His rating was up, his turnovers were down, and this was DESPITE playing the rough part of the schedule in a system that was still shaking out the bugs.
What do I mean by “the rough part of the schedule”? Look at the number of playoff teams that both Vick and Foles played against.
Vick faced 3: San Diego, Kansas City, and Denver; going 1-2 in those match-ups.
Foles only “kind of” faced one in Green Bay. I say “kind of” because the Packers were without Aaron Rodgers and Clay Matthews in that game. In fact they were forced to start an off the street FA in Seneca Wallace and when he was promptly injured they had to play a guy who’d not played in an NFL game before ( http://www.nfl.com/player/scotttolzien/2495425/gamelogs )
To his credit Foles won the game, but no one who isn’t an Eagle fan is going to be willing to turn a blind eye to HOW he won that game, the same way no one who isn’t an Eagles fan makes a big deal of his game vs the Raiders.
People frequently ask “Yeah, but who did they beat?” Qualifiers count to fans of this sport. Which is why despite Nick Foles great year in 2013, NOBODY (aside from some Eagles fas) has yet to speak ill of Vick’s play last year, and you have yet to hear that “His skills have diminished”.
Kelly had success with Vick, but this article was focused on Kelly’s primary passers so that I could show that despite how many games they played, the turnovers were low. Numerically you could argue that Vick only threw 3 picks. But then again it WAS in just 5-6 games. But then THAT was early in the system.
Once you get to picking apart small samples you get trapped in an argument and can chase your tail forever. It’s one of the reasons I still want to see more from Foles. I’m not interested in seeing what numbers he posts, I want to see him beat teams that aren’t bottom feeders, the way McNabb had to since the Eagles were a good team year in and year out for about a decade.
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To say Mike Vick played well in this offense is at best an exaggeration. He was woeful in the Giants game and I’m not convinced he beats any of the teams Foles faced. Case in point are Arizona. Vick was embarrassed a season prior against a worse Cardinals team. Foles beat the 6th best total defensive team who made Vick look like a rookie the year prior, and he had the lead against the Saints ranked in the top five. Vick led teams weren’t in any game when he faced a decent defense.
As far as Vick’s numbers Bering comparable to Foles well that’s a stretch. Here’s a projection of what Vick’s number would have looked like if he were to do something he’s done only once in his career. Play a full season.
265 Comp 451 Att 3,888 yds 17tds 10ints 48 times sacked 979 rush yds 6tds.
Now Foles:
324 comp 507 Att 4,625 yds 43 TDs 5 ints 44 times sacked 353 rush yards 5 TDs.
Other than being a better running weapon, Vick is by far a less efficient quarterback than Foles. He wouldn’t had lead the Eagles anywhere, would have been inefficient in the Red Zone, and been a turnover machine (didn’t bother counting the Vick fumbles.) Foles might not be so special, but I’ll take his non special numbers over the so called special numbers of Vick any day. I’m not alone on that thinking either. Chip Kelly obviously agrees as Vick is a Jet and Foles is going into the season as the Eagles starting QB.
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First, I never said anything about Vick’s numbers being comparable. His sample size in Kelly’s system is too small to make any such determination.
I’ll say to you what I’ve been saying to other Eagles fans: The idea that fans are using Vick as their basis of comparison for Foles is at best sad, and at worst a lowering of the bar. If you notice when I talked about Foles beating the big boys, and the Eagles being consistently good, the name I invoked was McNabb (still the franchises best All-time). I want to see an Eagles QB win THAT consistently, and who can also win playoff games.
As for Vick’s current address, even when I told you this time last year, that Vick would open the season as our starter, I said that he’d be out in 2014.
Not to go all Hollywood on you here, but the Eagles F.O. has a way of telegraphing their thought process if you’re willing to just sit back and not project your desires onto them. It’s partly what makes me think that Marcus Mariota could end up starting here in 2016. (That by the way, is a belief I’ll hold onto until I actually SEE Mariota on another roster. When that happens I’ll simply let the matter drop.)
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Mariota will not be an Eagle, because the Eagles won’t be bad enough to draft him. Mice Vick is the only comparable player to use because he’s the player who was also in the system in the NFL. Again I’ll take Foles and his unspecialness over anything anyone in the current roster offers or players from last season. Suck it up and support Nick Foles buddy. Like it or not he’s our guy.
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No doubt about that for 2014. But after this year it gets less and less clear.
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I think this year will make it perfectly clear. If he’s bad (which I doubt) then the Eagles will be bad, and he will likely be gone. Enter Mariota or someone else. Now if he’s good (which I expect) then he will be signed to a long term deal. Foles has intangibles that you aren’t respecting. He has a high NFL IQ, and he is accurate with the football. Sure Foles threw more screens than any QB last season, but he also led the league in plays of 20 yards or more, had the highest completion percentage of any QB throwing the ball 20 yards or more, and had the highest yards per completion of any QB in football. This is with Jackson, Cooper, and no other wider receiving threat. That means not only is he throwing the ball accurately he’s putting it in a position where his guys are catching it in stride. Gone are the McNabb days of guys having to awkwardly catch a ball and never advance it cause they are on the ground already. He’s putting the ball in spots where his receivers can hake plays for him. That’s special. I’ll take that over a guy who can run like a running back, but is just a likely to hit a defender with a pass or break down with injuries, or a guy who has a cannon for an arm, but couldn’t hit the side of a barn. Kevin Kolb wasn’t special. Nick Foles is.
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You continue to misunderstand me. I’ve been saying for years now that Foles is a talented player And I at no point said he wasn’t special. What I did was ask “What if he isn’t special?”
Earlier today i read an atricle from Fox Sports that asked “Will Foles become the Eagles franchise QB?” (http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/2014-preview-will-foles-become-the-eagles-franchise-quarterback-072214 ). Outside of half of the Eagles fan base that is a resounding question across national media and when talking to members of other fan bases (who are quick to point out Vick’s 2010 season that had everyone frothy in 2011).
Regardless, he’s the guy and it’s either root for him or against him with the options being Buttfumble or Matt Barkley. Anyone hoping for Mariota needs to read this article again and see how Oregon QB’s fare in the NFL. Dixon knows this system and was brought in last year…and he’s gone now.
BTW all the forecasts of Mariota going in the first are comical. Dixon was a 5th round pick, Masoli went undrafted, Thomas went undrafted. The NFL was knows a system QB when they see one. (Actually the Fox article I just referenced asked if Foles is now one as well.) At this point it’s looking like the way Penn State makes LB’s, and USC makes RB’s, Oregon DOESN’T make QB’s . If Mariota goes as early as the 3rd it would totally shock me.
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If Foles becomes less than average and last season was a fluke I wouldn’t be shocked to see Kelly take MM very high. First off Chip has little concept where a player should be taken. There were at least three guys in this past draft one could call a reach by the Eagles. There were reports he wanted to take the Hart kid in the third round until Roseman told him no. He’s also gaga for PAC 12 players not to mention we might as well be called the pro ducks. There is also the fact Chip lost out on the six players he wanted to select in the first round. If Mariota is his guy (I hope not) then he isn’t going to make the same mistake three times (lost Jordan a year prior). He’s going to go and get his man.
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Now I won’t be able to sleep soundly until Foles makes it IMPOSSIBLE for Kelly to take Mariota or he ends up on another roster. Not a single Duck on this roster has panned out so far, and there is no indication that we’re done taking them.
Some of these guys have NO business on any NFL roster active or practice squad ( https://eaglemaniacal.com/2014/04/14/maybe-a-fellow-fan-can-tell-me/ ), but it seems we’re suffering from a beefed up version of Andy Reid’s BYU fetish. Why can’t we get a coach who’s pet college is in Florida, Texas, or Pennsylvania?
BTW what do you think fans would say if Foles wins 10 and playoff game, throws for 4,500-65%-39/10 and we STILL end up with Mariota in the 2nd?
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I think some fans would be livid while others would accept it, for a few reasons. There are the “In Chip we trust” group who haven’t seen any flaws in what Chip does so picking a QB would be fine for them. Then there is the “never really liked Foles” group who already believe MM is Chip’s future guy. Then there is the “Foles walks on water group” who would be livid if Chip done such a thing. I would put myself in the “It’s best to keep an NFL quality QB just in case Chip bolts for college” group.
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That’s about where I am with it. I’ve said before that Kelly (actually his system) doesn’t teach QB’s how to actually be QB’s, which is why they’ve all failed so spectacularly, so consistently after playing in his system so spectacularly, so consistently.
There are some fans (which I think included you, correct me if I’m wrong) who felt that Reid left the roster in shambles when he left. However without many adjustments Kelly got off to a 2-3 start with Vick and finished up 10-6 with Foles, both QB’s he’d inherited.
What now has me worried is what happens if Kelly bolts for college and we get stuck with a roster full of QB’s who can’t play. When I’m less then optimistic at that point other fans wiul call me a “fake fan” and similar shit, but really what else would make sense in that case?
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Listen I get it and and I’m concerned with the entire roster being fit for a system only Chip Kelly can run. With that being the case I’m not concerned with Foles unfit to be an NFL quarterback. I think he’s capable of running any system he’s put in. He still has to read defenses, still has to make adjustments, still calls audibles, still has to use his arm over his legs. With or without Kelly I think Foles will be fine. After all so many thought he wasn’t even supposed to “fit” this system. I find it difficult to accept the idea of anyone to blame the success of Foles on a system he wasn’t supposed to fit. Especially when I see Dixon not even make this roster, Vick ultimately fail, Kenne do little to nothing, and Barkley look confused. Now Sanchez is here and he’s lost in the system. Even Foles had trouble early with the offense but he figured it out. I don’t think Chip is a fool. He’s hitched his ride to the QB he expects to win him games. That’s Foles.
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