Khalil Mack

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FOUR THINGS REVIEWED – WK 9 – BEARS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/11/04
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, NFL, Offense, Players, Reviews, stats. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

FRUSTRATION. That word kept being applied to the Bears defensive players today, whenever they committed a bone-head penalty. However, the word just as easily could have been used to describe what it was like to see drive after Eagles drive, stall due to spotty play selection in the red zone.

To be honest, this game wasn’t nearly as close as the score, and should have been a blowout before half-time. While it’s impossible to ignore the issues that will be magnified over the next month, or the time being we have a couple days to appreciate being over .500 for at least a week.

Let’s enjoy it for a bit.

2019 Special Teams Bears muff

EAGLES 22 – Bears 14

The one-two punch of RB Jordan Howard (19 – 82 – 4.3 – 1 – 0) and RB Miles Sanders (10 – 42 – 4.2 – 0 – 0 / 3 – 31 – 10.3 – 0) was once again the engine that drove this team. While QB Carson Wentz (26/39 – 66.6% – 239 – 1 – 0) did have a nice day playing catch with TE Zach Ertz (9 – 103 – 11.4 – 1), he’s going to remain handcuffed until we get genuine #1 WR on this team.

New addition DE Genard Avery (1 – 0.5 – 0 – 0) came in and made his presence known. The coming Bye week gives him a chance to study, and get a better grasp of the scheme, before anyone gets much tape of him in it. Could be interesting. DE Brandon Graham (2 – 1 – 0 – 0) continues to find his way to the QB. He was aided today by a lot of early press coverage on the edges. The entire rush was aided by it actually.

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Seemed like this would be a game that we could get a couple of turnovers in, but we didn’t force one all game. You know the word “comforting”? Yeah, this the opposite of that.

I hear you asking, “What about all the stuff that stats don’t reveal?” Well, that’s the reason for these “Four Things” articles. We introduce an idea of what needs addressing BEFORE the game, so that fans have to honestly answer questions about those things, AFTER the game. This helps to get us, and keep us, all on the same page.

So, of the Four Things we were looking for in this last game, what exactly did we see?

1) Make OLB Mack a liability: We didn’t really do this. They flip-flopped DE Khalil Mack (4 – 0 – 0 – 0) to try and get him some good looks, but he spent this game largely being negated. That in itself is a great thing since most of his match-ups were one-on-one. What sucks is that we didn’t punish him for being good at something. We didn’t capitalize on him. While what we did was still great, we didn’t do the thing written, so… (NOT DONE)

2) Steal their crutches: We spent an entire game doing this successfully. It wasn’t until we gave them another option, that they gained the slightest bit of life. (DONE)

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NT Eddie Goldman sacks QB Carson Wentz on opening drive. C Jason Kelce strolls over as the play unfolds.

3) Mix it up: We did a really good job of this in the first half. The second half, not so much. That first drive was awesome, until our interior Offensive line caved, and allowed Wentz to be sacked by NT Eddie Goldman (2 – 1 – 0 – 0). Later we would also give up one to DT Nick Williams (2 – 1 – 0 – 0). Then again, I just said in this year’s second Quarterly Review, that our interior has issues with pass pro. No one else is talking about that though. (DONE)

4) Toss them an anchor: Instead of tossing the Bears an anchor, we gave them a Zero Coverage look, which allowed even their QB, to hit a receiver for a 53 yard gain, which set up a very short TD. Prior to that, it was 19 – 0 and the Bears were reeling. Had they turned the ball over or allowed another score of any kind, the team would have folded like origami. We have got to find a player to inspire some form of emotional killer instinct. (NOT DONE)

So for this week, heading into our Bye, we break even at 2 of 4 things in Four Things. That brings us to a mark of 17 of 36 (.472) for the year.

I don’t set these tasks at higher than basic, and I tailor them to each opponent. So these grades are fair. They are by their very design, timely, unbiased, and stark. Despite having a 5- 4 record, a sub .500 Four Thing score, indicates that we aren’t doing basic things, and thus are a fundamentally bad team.

As things stand today, we do not deserve a playoff appearance. Here’s hoping that we get this turned around.

On The Whole:

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For a second week in a row, we leaned on Jordan Howard and walked off with the ‘W’. We played some press coverage, and saw our Defensive Line cash in for 2.5 sacks.

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Carson Wentz ignored the voice of Guy Fawkes, and targeted Zach Ertz 11 times. Ertz made plays when his number was called. No WR came close to his production.

Speaking of which, the WR issue has gotten terrifying. Alshon hasn’t looked right since he came back from injury. Frankly, given how much attention he sees, with no other WR threat to cover, I’m amazed that he’s produced much at all. But that’s a discussion for another day. Like tomorrow. The article is already written.

FOUR THINGS – WK 9 – EAGLES – BEARS

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/11/01
Posted in: Coaching, Conversations, Defense, Four Things, NFL, Offense, Players, Preview, Uncategorized, X's and O's. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

WK9-CHI

THIS week is all about establishing some momentum going into our Week 10 Bye. We aren’t trying to make a statement. After all, this is only the Bears. Pushing a car already in Neutral, isn’t impressive. And this is pretty much that. The idea here is not to lose our grip, and get backed over by that same car.

With the Packers leading the NFC North at 7 – 1, and the Vikings right on their heels at 6 – 2, the 3 – 4 fourth place Bears, have to know that 2019 is already a wrap for them. Bears fans can whip out their calculators and do some magic math, but the rest of us can hear the Fat Lady clearing her throat.

While it’s highly unlikely that the giants will beat the Cowboys this week, such an outcome would put the Eagles alone atop the NFC East. So long as we also win this week. This means that we have extreme motivation, while the Bears are practically waiting for a mercy killing. Those are the stakes. So let’s get to choppin’!

So let’s talk about the Four Things we need to focus on this week versus the Bears :

1) Make OLB Mack a liability: The Bears play a 3 – 4, with Khalil Mack as a dedicated rusher at RDE/OLB. His dance partner this week will either be LT Jason Peters, fresh off an injury, or rookie LT Andre Dillard. That sounds like a problem for us, but it doesn’t have to be. Our game plan should include constant inside chipping by the RB, followed by his release into the Flat.

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The Offensive Line positions in the yellow, denotes who is responsible for blocking which defensive player.

That would allow our LT to speed up his kick slide, and get set-up quickly on the outside, without fear of being beaten quickly inside. If Mack speed rushes outside, the LT is already there. If Mack dips inside, he gets blown up by the RB, long enough for the LT to step up, latch on, and rag-doll him.

That RB in the Flat, is a quick way to punish the Bears for rushing Mack in the first place. I like the idea of using RB Jordan Howard on this.

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He’s a good pass protector, and given the bad rap that Chicago gave him as a receiver, it would be nice to see him grab 5 or 6 passes, in open space, vs a single DB.

2) Steal their crutches: The Bears awful QB throws a lot of short passes to his RB’s. This would be a great week to see one of our players jump one of those routes and take the ball back to the house. I’m looking at you OLB Nate Gerry! It would be nice to see you make a big play, OLB Kamu Grugier-Hill! Hey Malcolm! Get in the middle of one of these upcoming passes.

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This is Nelson Muntz vs Tim Cratchit. We should be able to easily take away the short game, and force a bad QB, into making some pretty dumb throws.

3) Mix it up: While their offense is a punchline, their defense is no joke. Part of that is talent, but most of it is just plain old preparation. They see what teams rely on, and they prep to take away those strengths. While we shouldn’t abandon our strengths, we should throw them a few things they haven’t seen much from us.

Seeing some 11 Personnel with rookie WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in the Slot, inside of WR Alshon Jeffery, would be a look that inspires the coverage to roll that way. The aforementioned 5 or 6 passes to Howard in that alignment, could be devastating.

Maybe we could run a FB trap with TE Dallas Geodert? Or maybe a play-action, TE Quick Screen out of 12 Personnel (Heavy right, motion to Twins left)? Like this:Fig3

Surely Eagles coaches are as creative as I am, right? Right?! We’ll see.

4) Toss them an anchor: Usually I like to suggest two ways to attack an opposing defense and two ways to attack their offense. However, the Bears offense is so bad, that taking way their defensive strength, should be enough to cause QB Mitch Trubisky to try and stage a rescue.

He’s like a lifeguard who can’t swim. He’s like a squeamish surgeon. He’s like a tampon made of raw, ground beef. He just makes things worse. So we’ll just take away the run, and when their team needs saving, we will present them the option of Trubisky, more Trubiskly, and only Trubisky.

If we do all these things, we’re just about guaranteed to win. Now that we’ve covered what should happen, let’s get into what likely will happen:

Defensively, the Eagles are going to make a point of taking away the run. That should get the Bears coaching staff to do some of that cute, gimmicky shit, that they love failing at so much. Rest assured, Trubisky will give us opportunities. We just have to capitalize on them, when he does.

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Offensively, HC Doug Pederson understands that we have to dictate the action to a defense as good as the Bears have. It shouldn’t shock you if he dials up a shot down the field on the opening drive. Not on the first three downs, but soon after we pick up our first first down. Expect to see the Eagles being the aggressor early in this one.

The Bears are catching us at the wrong time. I almost feel bad for them.

PREDICTION: EAGLES 27 – Bears 14

yeah-bitch

RAIDERS: THE GREAT TRADE ROBBERY 2.0

Posted by The BEAST on 2019/02/01
Posted in: Conspiracy Corner, Defense, Draft, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Players, playoffs, trade, Uncategorized. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a comment

 

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RIGHT now, (when you ask about it), this is what people think: Oakland got two first round picks, while Chicago got DE Khalil Mack and a double-doink knockout, in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. That’s true, but it’s massively oversimplified. The Raiders may have just pulled off the second Great Trade Robbery.

If the Raiders were a playoff team, they’d see both more and deeper media coverage (like they used to). If that were the case then “professional” reporters may have done their job, and taken a closer look at that trade, when it happened.

Thank goodness, you have me.

A few months back, I wrote about the Bears/Raiders trade, in an article called “OH THEM HIDDEN FEES!” In that article I said, even if the Bears make four quick playoff exits, then the trade is still a successful one, because it unseats Green Bay, and makes Chicago the focal point of their division. But I may have to rethink that.

Much of the national media barely stopped short of calling the Raiders morons, for having parted with Mack. If you read my article, you saw that I didn’t think it was a bad deal for Oakland at all. Quite the contrary! As someone who regularly follows the Raiders, I had a clue as to what was happening there. So I already had a glimpse of their Big Picture. (More about that, down the page.)

After watching Mack get essentially manhandled during the first round of the playoffs by  Eagles RT Lane Johnson and what’s left of LT Jason Peters, I decided to look again at Mack’s last two seasons. Just to put my eye on where the trade currently stands.

Remember when I said this was a good trade for Oakland? Well, early returns would suggest that the Raiders pulled a fast one on the Bears.

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In 2017 the Bears defense was 9th in points allowed, and 10th in yards allowed. In 2018 they moved to 1st in points allowed, and 3rd in yards allowed. So a top 10 defense became a top 10 defense. Yes, they moved into the top THREE, but you know how these things are divided up. Top 10 is good, middle 10 is meh, and bottom 10 means someone will likely be fired. (Finishing under 30th means someone probably got canned during the season.) Also, the Bears sack number went from 42 to 50. So the Bears moved up. But not really.

Mack himself missed games (two), for the first time in his career. His sack number was 12.5, which is the second best year of his career. However his tackle numbers fell off cliff. After averaging 76 per year for four years, and coming off of a career best 78 in 2017, his tackles fell to 47.

One of the best parts of Mack’s game was that he was also good vs the run, and made plays despite double and triple teams. This clearly hasn’t manifested in Chicago. That means the Bears may be deploying him incorrectly, and thus aren’t getting the player they traded for. Or, they are using him just as the Raiders did, but he can no longer be as effective as he was in Oakland.

In either case, the Bears aren’t getting the player they traded for.

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It raises the question of whether or not the Raiders already knew that, when they dealt Mack. Playing 64 straight games of constant double and triple teams. Combine that with four years of practices. Years of things left off the injury report, to not tip the opponent on how to gain an advantage. (Now why would I say something like that?) Did the Raiders already see a decline coming?

What did they know, and when did they know it? All signs point to them knowing plenty, and knowing it very early.

If that’s the case, then the Raiders idea may have been to hose a team, to help turbo-charge their re-build effort. In this way the Raiders could save themselves years of cap space, and parlay a player they didn’t see in their future, into multiple players that may be key components. So in August of 2018, the Raiders asked for TWO first round picks as the price of trading Mack.

The national media essentially laughed at Oakland for asking for a price that no one would be willing to pay. So of course Oakland wound up getting two first-round picks from Chicago (2019 and 2020), AND a 2019 sixth-round pick, as well as a 2020 third-round pick. Instead of hailing the Raiders as shrewd, they were more or less derided for doing what no one thought could happen.

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Funny thing is, 49ers GM John Lynch says he offered more. “I continue to (believe that we offered more for Mack). That, at times, leads me to believe, were we ever in consideration? I understand the thought of sending him right across The Bay — I don’t know how that factored in — but it is what it is.”

I agree with Lynch in thinking that the Raiders wanted Mack out of their media market. Besides, the favorable weather in San Fran would only contribute to Mack playing better, thus making the Raiders look dumber for trading him.

However, Chicago, longer grass, in cold weather?That helps hinder any player’s change of direction. Especially for a player with an ankle injury. Especially if he’s been dealing with and possibly concealing lower body damage for a year or so. Why that hint again? His Injury Report for 2017 in Oakland:

Week 1 Did Not Practice (knee).

Week 2 Limited (Not Injury Related).

Week 12.

Week 13.

Week 14.

Week 15.

Week 16.

All DNP. All NIR. Let’s get some context on Mack not practicing during those weeks, in particular.

Going into Week 12, coming off a 8 – 33 loss, with a record of 4-6, same as the Chargers, chasing a 6-5 Chiefs team, why would you not practice your best player, if he’s not hurt? It’s not like you’re resting him for the playoffs! You do it to ease up on an injury that you’re leaving off the books.

The Raiders finished 6-10, missed the playoffs, and subsequently stopped all communication with Mack during the offseason. They went zero dark thirty on him. Then they traded him. And not only did Mack miss practices in 2018, he missed actual games, for the first time in his career.

With a lower body injury.

Are you seeing that Big Picture now? I thought you might.

Some of you may remember the Great Trade Robbery, where Dallas (took it all, socks and drawers, and) left Minnesota nekkid except for flip-flops in the snow.

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Well here we go again. Oakland pulled a Dallas.

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The Raiders unloaded a sports car with a blown head gasket, now coolant is leaking into the combustion chamber. And the Bears paid through the nose for the thing that happens next.

OH THEM HIDDEN FEES!

Posted by The BEAST on 2018/09/05
Posted in: Conversations, Defense, Front Office (F.O.), NFL, Players, trade. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

 

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OAKLAND’S Raiders are my second favorite NFL team, so I feel a need to offer a few words regarding the “The Trade”. I just didn’t think it would be right to do it before I released this week’s Four Things article. Having done that more than 24 hours ago, I feel like it’s now appropriate to me to weigh in.

Don’t get me wrong, DE Khalil Mack is the sort of guy every NFL fan, teammate, coach, GM and owner, wants on their team. From a talent standpoint, losing him hurts the Raiders. No Silver and Black fan can just look at this trade and shrug over it.

However, it’s not nearly as bad for the Raiders as the media is making it sound. While many are quick to judge it by what Oakland lost, I’m not sure that anybody is really asking: “Well what did Chicago gain?” I mean, everybody is asking that question, but I doubt anybody is REALLY asking that question. Because we all know that Mack did well for himself. 

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Understand, while Mack was on the team, the Raiders had a record of 28 – 36. With him, the defense has never finished higher than 21st in yards or 20th in points. Despite his individual sack numbers over the years, the Raiders have never been able to parlay that into an effect which the entire unit could capitalize on. (The Eagles for example, got as much pass-rush as any team in 2017, despite not having a single double digit sack artist.)

The Raiders had 31 sacks in 2017, 25 in 2016, 38 in 2015 and 22 in 2014. They averaged 29 sacks a year with Mack. If they meet or exceed 29 sacks in 2018, it will mathematically be saying that they became more effective as a team, in his absence. And that’s without factoring in whether or not the two first round picks they got for him, turn into decent players.

While I have no idea what Mack and his agent initially asked Oakland for in negotiations, the 6 year, 141M$ extension, gives a hell of a hint. The idea of paying a single DE, 20M$ per year, had to have Oakland thinking “Why?” “Where are the results?” “Six years of paying for more 28 – 36?” From that was born “The Trade”.

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The burden for proving this trade wise isn’t on the Raiders. It never was. The price Oakland paid is all up front. It’s a done deal now. There are no hidden costs or fees on this transaction for them. In exchange for one player, this could become “The Great Trade Robbery 2.0”. The same can’t be said for the Bears. For them this trade is all about what comes next, and that can’t be accurately judged today.

The Bears haven’t been to the playoffs since 2010. That was the last time they won the division. In fact, the last FOUR times the Bears went to the playoffs, they had to win the division to do it. The last time they made the postseason without winning their division, was 1994. Back then it was the NFC Central and there were five teams in it (Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit and Tampa Bay).

When you ink a guy to 22M a year, you’re chasing playoff success. If the Bears win one Super Bowl during Mack’s contract, the trade is great one. If they see the Conference championship 3 of those years, it’s a good trade. If they win the division 4 of those years, (even if they make quick exits), it’s still a successful trade, because it changes the focal point of the division. However, anything short of that is utter failure.