MARCH 18, 2020 was the last day that Philadelphia saw single digit (8) new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), better known by it’s unhappy neighbors as either Coronavirus, Covid-19, or Ms. Rona. With Fall and Football season coming up, I wanted to talk about this thing from a slightly different angle.
I’m going to throw some numbers at you. Don’t run off. They’ll be easier to follow than QB passing stats.
Currently the city is in what is referred to, as a ‘Modified Green‘ phase of re-opening. We are not now, nor have we yet been, to ‘Full Green‘ phase yet. In the 38 days since going Modified Green on July 3rd, we’ve seen 4,623 new cases, for a daily reporting average of 121.6. Once there’s a lull in patients at work, I track the daily reporting numbers.
That term “daily reporting” is a tongue-in-cheek term. While people are testing daily, test results are not immediate. Some take a few as 2 days for facilities like hospitals that have their own on-premises lab. For other testing facilities, which have to send the tests to a lab, results can lag as long as 14 days behind.
Even on the City Of Philadelphia’s official Coronavirus webpage, the daily reports are adjusted daily to reflect the new results that came in for that day. For example: At the moment, the new cases for Friday (8/7/20) is at 68. (It was at 52 when I started this article two hours ago)*. That number will creep upward for at least the next week. This is because every day, delayed results come in, and get added to the date of the test.
Now for those numbers that I promised.
June 1st to July 2nd (Yellow Phase) : 3,793 new cases, over 32 days, with an average of 118.5 new cases per day.
July 3rd to July 26th (Modified Green – Dormant Reporting) : 3,201 new cases, over 24 days, with an average of 133.3 new cases per day.
July 27 – August 10th (Modified Green – Active Reporting) : 1,422 new cases, over 14 days for an average of 101.5. Keep in mind, NONE of the numbers in this 14 day range can be counted on to be final. While at first glance it always looks like the curve is flattening in the Active Reporting range, the Dormant Reporting range tells what happens by the end of that cycle.
As you can see here on the city’s page testing-and-data/ in the upper corner of the Positives section, it cautions the reader that “Data May Be Delayed”. So again, the numbers in the 14 day range will creep upward for usually a week, but sometimes as long as two weeks. That’s just the raw data.
The point of this article, is to say that the Philadelphia region is not ready for a move to Full Green. There has clearly not been a “flattening of the curve.” In fact the data suggests that we’re ticking upward, even with the aid of outdoor spaces and ultraviolet rays, which help kill the virus (while in the air, not inside the body, Mr. President).
Philly’s leaders can’t allow the local economy to cave in, so some degree of being open is needed to keep people fed. Especially before the weather changes and forces people back into confined areas. (No outdoor spaces, and far less UV rays. COMING SOON! Get the picture?) We shouldn’t fault our elected officials for trying to do as much as they can, while they can.
However, we the people ARE the government. By voice, by vote and by demonstrative acts as individuals. A move to Full Green does not mean that we as individuals are required to act as if we’ve put this thing behind us. Should our elected officials open movie theaters, or schools, or stadiums or whatever, in a way that flies in the face of our common sense, we are responsible for using OUR individual actions to demonstrate a lack of support for such a move.
Understand, intelligence is not what you know. It is in fact, your capacity to learn. Can you learn? is the question. Can you think? Unless we want to be the next Florida, or Texas, or California, or Georgia, then fellow Philadelphians, we have to demonstrate the capacity to learn. The ability to make a choice based on our intelligence and not our animalistic comforts.
The lives of our most cherished loved ones are depending on it.
*By the time I was able to get this article out, the case reporting for 8/7/20 had gone from 52 to 68 to 80.