LOST in the Wild Card round, 12 – 5, first in the NFC East, 29.9 pspg / 18.5 papg
Despite a 3 – 2 start, the Cowboys just plugged away, and generally beat whomever was on the schedule. They worked their way into first place in the division, only to get shit-canned in their own home, by a young Green Bay team in the playoffs.
Head coach Mike McCarthy has just put together three 12 – 5 seasons in a row, with a playoff record of 1 – 3, over that same span. He’s replaced his ex-defensive coordinator with Mike Zimmer, but everything else, has been just making small adjustments. Chances are, without a deep playoff run, McCarthy is likely getting fired. Not in spite of his three year 36 – 15 record, but rather because of it. Owner Jerry Jones, isn’t patient enough to endure much more of “close, but no cigar!”
OFFENSE:
QB: Dak Prescott is the starter, but he has no idea whether or not the Cowboys want him back next year. So why did I lead with that, instead of whether he’s any good or not? One, because anyone reading this, already knows he can play. Two, because potentially having to shop himself as a free agent next year, will affect how he regards injuries this year.
You have to ask, how much will Prescott hold back, in an attempt to limit damage to an already 30 year old body? Since any holding back will affect any athlete’s play, it stands to reason that we may not see the best version of Prescott in 2024. Especially with his primary weapon missing all of camp and the preseason.
The backup, is Preseason Hall of Famer Cooper Rush. He’s 5 – 1 lifetime, in games that count. His only career loss came vs a Philadelphia Eagles team, that went to the Super Bowl that year. He’s extremely smart and very hard to fool. Unfortunately, his physical tools are underwhelming. Because of this, the Cowboys are looking past him for their next starter.
Third stringer Trey Lance, has all the physical tools of a star. However, he’d been a goofy disaster since the 49ers overdrafted him #3 overall in 2021. He started four games, went 2 – 2, and the 9ers felt they’d seen enough. Just FOUR starts, for a first round pick, and they threw the towel in on him!?
So when Dallas traded the 9ers just a fourth round pick for him, during the 2023 offseason, everyone assumed Dallas had fleeced them. Wrong. WRONG! When Dallas realized the scope of the project he was, they basically red-shirted him all last season. So far this preseason, vs vanilla defenses, Lance appeared to have regressed.
So while this team does have two good players at this position, neither is motivated to do anything besides audition for other teams right now. (+)
RB: Ezekiel Elliott returns to Dallas! Not the old version that could eat clock with a lead, batter a defense, and put away games. Instead, Dallas is getting the new version, that hasn’t seen a 100 yard game, broken a run of longer than 27 yards, or had an average of 4.0 per carry, since 2021. They’re getting the version that hasn’t averaged 7 yards per catch, since 2019.
Elliott is the best they have for now. Rico Dowdle is an undrafted, career backup who plays like it. In thirty-six games, not one is a start, and instead of promoting him, they brought in Elliott. At 5’6” 176 pounds, and being easy to arm tackle, Deuce Vaughn will never see many carries.
The Cowboys signed Dalvin Cook to their practice Squad, and it’s wise to assume he won’t stay there long. The Vikings cut him over money in 2023, and the move didn’t work out for them. He spent the 2023 regular season as a backup with the Jets. ( He signed with the Ravens for one playoff game). Though he looked like a bad fit in New York, he still showed home run capability in 2022, with a career long 81 yard run. Unless Cook can lift this group, it’s a bad one. (-)
TE: Jake Ferguson is more of a receiver than a blocker, but he’s not going to scare anybody who has to cover him. Luke Schoonmaker is more of a blocker than a receiver. Undrafted rookie Brevyn Spann-Ford, is big (6’6” 268) target. That said, he’s not much of blocker, and his feet turn over at an alarmingly slow rate. This guy is going to get cooked at this level. (-)
WR: Did the Cowboys just pay 30M$ per year for a slot receiver? Given that in 2023, 60% of Ceedee Lamb‘s targets and 66% of his receptions came from the slot, the numbers would strongly suggest that’s exactly what the Cowboys did. Look, there is no disputing that Lamb can get open, make catches, and score. The question is: Can he do it consistently against an opponent’s best cover guy; or does he need to be matched up vs a Nickel player?
Once upon a time Brandin Cooks was electric and explosive. He’s not those things anymore, but he still caught 8 scores last year. Jalen Tolbert is going to be the second outside receiver, so that Lamb can stay inside. At 153 pounds Kavonte Turpin is just considered a gadget player. Jalen Brooks is a 7th rounder from last season. Couple players, but no depth. (+)
OT: The loss of Tyron Smith was inevitable and necessary. The problem, is not having replaced him with a high caliber player. At LT, Chuma Edoga is starting the season on Injured Reserve, for the first four weeks. It’s also the sort of injury (toe) that tends to linger. So rookie 1st rounder Tyler Guyton, will protect any realistic hopes that this franchise has of the postseason.
At RT Terence Steele returns for his fifth year as the starter in this spot. Not much has been said about him recently, and the general thinking is, if not much is said about an offensive lineman, he must be doing his job. Seems weird to me, though. The NFL is always talking about future Hall Of Famer, RT Lane Johnson; and how fast LT Jordan Mailata has come along. (-)
OG: Speaking of lineman who always get a mention, future Hall Of Famer RG Zack Martin, comes back for his eleventh year as a starter for this team. Opposite him, at LG Tyler Smith returns fresh from his first All-Pro nod. Am I painting you a picture?
Behind them for depth, they have T.J. Bass who saw two starts last season. There’s also swingman Asim Richards, a 5th round pick last year, and native of Philadelphia. (+)
C: Rookie 3rd rounder, Cooper Beebe made the transition from Guard, and seems to have snatched the starting spot here. He’s a wide, squat, fan of running the ball. However, he has some physical shortcomings that could make him a liability as a pass protector, over the long haul.
Behind him is Brock Hoffman, an undrafted free agent from 2022, who expected to inherit the role after two starts last season, and the defection of Tyler Biadasz. The drafting of Beebe, should have been a clue. If the offensive system were different, I would grade this position different. But since the system keeps these players in their wheelhouse, it’s fine. (+)
In A Nutshell: Injuries are part of football, and depth is a serious issue for this unit. They’ll have to stay very lucky to stay competitive this season.
DEFENSE:
DE: DeMarcus Lawrence played every game for a second straight season producing 50 tackles and 4 sacks. That however, doesn’t offset the loss of pass rush, with Dorance Armstrong going to Washington. It’s doubtful that Dallas will trust Chauncey Golston or Tyrus Wheat, with the spot. Partly because of 2nd round rookie Marshawn Kneeland.
Then there’s this other thing. While he’s not listed at this position, all the chatter (and this includes the depth chart on the Cowboys own website), says that Micah Parsons will play opposite Lawrence. I’ve said for the past two years, that this day was coming. Mostly since Parsons offers little value in off-ball applications. In any case, Dallas has a few pieces to move around. (+)
DT: Osa Odighizuwa is a high motor player, who should be moved to End. Instead, they play him inside, and the season wears him down. Last season he had no solo tackles for the final four weeks of the season, a similar disappearing act has been pulled in each of his three years.
Mazi Smith was brought in to help stop the run, but he dropped under 300 pounds to try and get sacks. The new defensive coordinator told him to knock that off, and go get fat again.
Speaking of fat, Dallas traded for oft-traveled Jordan Phillips, and signed oft-traveled Linval Joseph. They played together in Buffalo last season. This position is stocked with underachievers and guys who live out of their suitcases. Not a good sign for Dallas. (-)
OLB: Damone Clark looked like a reliable tackle machine last year, until about week 14. At that point teams realized that it was easier to make yards attacking him downfield in the passing game, than it was by trying to screen him. Of the 224 passing yards he gave up in 2023, 86 were in the last four games, with 8 catches on 9 targets.
DeMarvion Overshown missed all of last season, his rookie season, with a torn ACL. Rookie 3rd rounder Marist Liufau, seems to be in competition with Overshown, over that second starting spot. This is a great way to let iron sharpen iron. If at least one of these kids can play, Dallas may have struck oil here. Until then, everything here is a huge, glowing question mark. (-)
MLB: Free agent addition Erick Kendricks, has racked up over 1,000 tackles in his nine year career. He also has some playmaking ability.
Buddy Johnson screams red flags. He was a Steelers 4th round draft pick, who signed a four year contract in 2021. The following preseason the Steelers cut him, and didn’t even add him to their practice squad. Since then, he’s been on four different practice squads, played 86 Special Teams snaps, and recorded 8 tackles. Kendricks had better stay healthy. (-)
S: Donovan Wilson and Malik Hooker return for a third year of working together. That should make adapting to their new defensive system easier. Markquese Bell entering his third year here, offers experienced depth and again, interpersonal familiarity. Juanyeh Thomas and Israel Mukuamu offer depth.
All of these guys knowing each other so well, should make assimilating the new system a snap. These players have already played together and played well. If there are problems in the secondary, you know the issue is the coaching, not the players, or misunderstandings. This is still the deepest group in the division. (+)
CB: Trevon Diggs returns after missing fifteen games in 2023, with an ACL tear. He’s a feast or famine type gambler, who probably gave up half as many big plays, as he made. The question is: What percentage of the gambler’s luck, was left on the operating table. With the departure of Stephon Gilmore, second year man, Caelen Carson is starting opposite Diggs. .
From the Nickel, DaRon Bland led the NFL with 9 picks and returned 5 of them for TD’s, last year. Unfortunately, he has a stress fracture in his foot that will require surgery, and keep him out at least six games. Stepping in for him, is Jourdan Lewis. He has a ton of experience, and even some fair measure of success. C.J. Goodwin and Andrew Booth play Special Teams. (+)
In A Nutshell: Up front they can still be pushed around. Their two best ballhawks having suffering lower body injuries, raises serious questions about this secondary.
SPECIAL TEAMS:
LS: Since college Trent Seig has never played any other position. He’s essentially eating a roster spot. (-)
P: Bryan Angerer went nuts last year, posting a 51.4 yard per punt average, as well as a 45.3 yard average net. Both of which were career-highs for him. At age 35. Seriously, do I need to be the one to drop the “S” word? Or to bring up the term “random test”? (+)
K: After a decade of searching, and performing an interesting comedy of errors for their division rivals, the Cowboys, finally seem to have found their guy. Brandon Aubrey is young, has a big leg, and currently owns an accuracy mark of 94.7% on his field goals. (+)
In A Nutshell: The biggest thing that this unit has needed for a long time, was stability. They have that now.
BOTTOM LINE:
After this season, this team is headed for a rebuild. With that hanging over their heads, it’s unreasonable to expect the players to not get distracted. Add to that, the alarming lack of depth in positions like QB, MLB, and OT, and do you know what you get? Deformed fingers from keeping them crossed all year long. There’s a lot of talent on this team, but the players have ridden that ride before. That may not be enough to keep the roster interested this year.
As for 2024: I’ll go out on a limb and say 10 – 7, a Wild Card loss, and McCarthy being fired less than two weeks later.
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